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Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. DBS Bank accepts no liability whatsoever with respectto the use of this document or its contents.
India macroeconomic outlookBalancing act – Health vs Recovery
Radhika RaoEconomistDBS Group [email protected]
November 2020
Implications for India from the US elections
Source: Government agencies, RBI, Bloomberg, CEIC, media reports, DBS Group Research
India: Taking stock of the pandemic curve
Source: Government agencies, RBI, Bloomberg, CEIC, media reports, DBS Group Research; *WEF study
Watch Factors
Second wave less devastating for livesand livelihoods
Onset of the domestic festive period
Widespread testing is picking up a lot ofasymtomatic infections
New infections mostly among the young, and lessfatalities
Pipeline of anti-virals and vaccine is encouraging
Construction, manufacturing unlikely to be halted
Ample liquidity and low interest rates supporting borrowers
Global/ regional instances of resurgence
Cold weather conditions/ winter cometh
Air pollution influences severity and mortality from COVID19*
Herd- Immunity not on the cards
Unlocking on track, encouraging high-frequency trends
Source: Government agencies, RBI, Bloomberg, CEIC, media reports, DBS Group Research
Sectors: Varying pace of recovery
Inputs from Crisil survey
Source: Government agencies, RBI, Bloomberg, CEIC, Crisil, media reports, DBS Group Research
Concerns for banks under check, covered by stalled insolvency proceedings, recast window, moratoriums
One time recast window - take-up rate by non-MSME corporates is minimal
Reasons: a) optimism over recovering economy, b) impact on long term credit history, c) concern over insolvency proceeds onceinsolvency proceedings cover is lifted
Policyon a balance beam
Pause likely in rest of 2020 – Anchoring rates will be key
Source: Government agencies, RBI, Bloomberg, CEIC, media reports, DBS Group Research
Source: Government agencies, RBI, Bloomberg, CEIC, media reports, DBS Group Research
Policy on a balance beam
Financial markets – Catch up since the pandemic outbreak
Source: Government agencies, RBI, Bloomberg, CEIC, media reports, DBS Group Research
Returns Risk Ratios
Top Quartile Funds
Scheme Name / Index Name Fund Quartile Inception Date 1 Mth 6 Mth 1 Yr 5 Yr Since
InceptionFund Size INR Cr
3 Yr. Std. Dev
3 Yr. Sharpe
3 Yr. Treynor
Aggressive Allocation
SBI Equity Hybrid Fund Reg Gr Q1 19/01/05 7.04 26.22 5.12 9.65 14.74 31772.77 14.85 0.00 -1.22
Mirae Asset Hybrid Equity Reg Gr Q1 29/07/15 6.01 31.53 8.52 11.32 10.15 3824.02 15.53 0.02 -0.82
Sundaram Equity Hybrid Gr Q1 23/06/00 5.93 25.13 4.07 9.76 11.82 1526.63 15.62 0.00 -1.19
DSP Equ & Bond Reg Gr Q2 27/05/99 7.76 29.55 9.88 10.45 14.32 5586.52 17.18 0.02 -1.04
ICICI Pru Equity & Debt Gr Q2 03/11/99 9.29 21.43 -0.34 8.40 13.23 15479.31 16.08 -0.30 -5.84
Franklin India Equity Hybrid Gr Q2 10/12/99 9.20 32.77 7.85 8.10 13.14 1273.86 15.24 -0.16 -3.45
Arbitrage Fund
Kotak Equity Arbitrage Reg Gr Q1 29/09/05 0.36 1.54 4.39 5.91 7.20 15289.36 0.76 -0.10
UTI Arbitrage Reg Gr Q1 22/06/06 0.33 1.60 4.43 5.83 7.14 3189.75 0.73 -0.11
ICICI Pru Equity Arbitrage Reg Gr Q2 30/12/06 0.37 1.43 4.34 5.82 7.26 9673.38 0.80 -0.21
Contra
Invesco India Contra Gr Q1 8.46 39.96 12.35 12.52 13.26 5026.94 22.01 0.04 -1.72
Kotak India EQ Contra Reg Gr Q2 27/07/05 6.95 42.52 6.89 11.82 12.18 801.96 21.04 0.03 -1.72
Dynamic Asset Allocation
DSP Dyn Asset Alloc Reg Gr Q1 06/02/14 4.21 21.33 9.81 8.37 8.70 1746.92 10.43 0.05 -0.01
ICICI Pru Balanced Adv Gr Q1 30/12/06 5.18 28.49 8.14 9.28 10.61 26122.94 13.42 0.03
All returns displayed are for Growth option Returns are as on 20th Nov 2020 All other data are as on 31st Oct 2020
11/04/07
Top Quartile Funds
Returns Risk Ratios
Sectoral - Thematic
SBI Magnum Global Reg Gr Q1 27/06/05 2.89 24.22 8.55 8.04 16.18 3901.11 16.83 0.00 -1.81
Tata Ethical Reg Gr Q1 24/05/96 3.29 31.16 12.98 7.48 15.63 633.81 16.48 -0.01
-4.21UTI MNC Reg Gr Q1 29/05/98 2.07 20.82 3.73 6.24 15.71 2138.81 16.88 -0.12
Nippon India Pharma Gr Q1 05/06/04 -0.42 28.29 52.12 9.05 20.85 3899.68 20.66 0.64 14.90
SBI Infrastructure Reg Gr Q1 06/07/07 9.26 33.83 0.18 7.54 3.48 436.32 24.48 -0.20 -7.98
Aditya BSL Digital India Gr Q1 15/01/00 1.96 56.83 40.93 16.48 10.23 683.71 21.03 0.87 17.78
Aditya BSL MNC Gr Q2 27/12/99 4.87 23.60 2.73 6.87 15.98 3708.26 18.63 -0.10 -4.04
SBI Magnum Equity ESG Reg Gr Q2 27/11/06 7.98 41.41 5.01 9.80 10.94 2796.36 20.62 0.03
Aditya BSL Manufacturing Eq Reg Gr Q2 31/01/15 4.03 33.80 11.93 8.05 6.55 484.30 18.56 -0.31 -9.42
ICICI Pru FMCG Gr Q2 31/03/99 5.61 18.71 -1.20 8.85 15.97 516.10 14.60 -0.11 -2.84
ICICI Pru Infrastructure Gr Q2 31/08/05 12.93 33.17 -8.45 3.06 10.46 1015.57 24.97 -0.48
Scheme Name / Index Name Fund Quartile Inception Date 1 Mth 6 Mth 1 Yr 5 Yr Since
InceptionFund Size INR Cr
3 Yr. Std. Dev
3 Yr. Sharpe
3 Yr. Treynor
ELSS (Tax Savings)
Axis Long Term Equity Gr Q1 29/12/09 12.04 36.60 10.16 12.14 16.61 22631.51 19.36 0.14 0.98
Aditya BSL Tax Relief 96 Gr Q1 06/03/08 5.79 32.28 7.05 10.21 10.11 11157.91 19.58 -0.12 -4.97
ICICI Pru Long Term Eq (Tax Sav) Gr Q2 19/08/99 9.26 36.69 4.40 8.15 18.94 6514.01 20.94 -0.06 -3.83
UTI Long Term Equity Reg Gr Q2 15/12/99 10.52 42.66 12.16 9.69 14.08 1379.32 20.74 -0.06 -3.96
Kotak Taxsaver Reg Gr Q2 23/11/05 6.56 40.23 8.17 10.66 11.26 1311.51 20.83 -0.01 -2.67
Equity Savings
IDFC Equity Savings Reg Gr Q2 09/06/08 1.08 14.56 7.21 5.44 6.48 50.09 8.83 -0.12
Tata Equity Savings Reg Gr Q2 23/07/97 2.86 15.09 6.03 6.21 7.93 92.32 7.09 -0.20
All returns displayed are for Growth option Returns are as on 20th Nov 2020 All other data are as on 31st Oct 2020
Top Quartile Funds
Returns Risk Ratios
Scheme Name / Index Name Fund Quartile Inception Date 1 Mth 6 Mth 1 Yr 5 Yr Since
InceptionFund Size INR Cr
3 Yr. Std. Dev
3 Yr. Sharpe
3 Yr. Treynor
Multi-Cap
UTI Equity Reg Gr Q1 18/05/92 10.08 48.41 20.04 12.45 12.93 11917.47 21.13 0.26 3.66
DSP Equity Reg Gr Q2 07/06/07 10.26 37.75 9.14 11.35 12.01 3818.64 22.07 0.04 -1.79
Kotak Standard Multicap Reg Gr Q2 11/09/09 7.17 40.00 5.59 11.41 12.91 29807.21 20.58 -0.04 -3.31
SBI Magnum Multicap Reg Gr Q2 29/09/05 9.58 39.63 3.37 10.25 11.59 8956.84 20.88 -0.11 -5.09
Focused Fund
SBI Focused Equity Fund Reg Gr Q1 11/10/04 9.90 31.59 5.74 11.97 18.65 10619.72 20.51 0.13 0.52
ICICI Pru Focused Equity Gr Q1 28/05/09 7.41 28.76 10.75 8.34 10.79 806.89 17.30 -0.14 -5.48
Principal Foc Multicap Gr Q1 11/11/05 8.73 35.06 11.64 10.76 14.36 399.62 18.30 -0.01
Sundaram Sel Focus Gr Q2 30/07/02 6.65 31.72 3.70 10.50 17.70 1046.53 20.17 0.04 -1.56
Multi Asset Allocation
HDFC Multi - Asset Gr Q2 17/08/05 2.88 30.42 13.76 7.99 9.02
17.70
345.85 15.63 0.04
All returns displayed are for Growth option Returns are as on 20th Nov 2020 All other data are as on 31st Oct 2020
Top Quartile Funds
Returns Risk Ratios
Scheme Name / Index Name Fund Quartile Inception Date 1 Mth 6 Mth 1 Yr 5 Yr Since
InceptionFund Size INR Cr
3 Yr. Std. Dev
3 Yr. Sharpe
3 Yr. Treynor
Index Funds
HDFC Index Sensex Q1 17/07/02 7.94 45.28 8.08 11.90 14.55 1527.71 21.08 0.15 0.88
UTI Nifty Index Reg Gr Q1 06/03/00 7.75 44.68 7.51 11.21 10.83 2852.80 21.10 0.07 -0.84
HDFC Index Nifty 50 Q1 17/07/02 7.73 44.45 7.16 11.03 14.13 1975.95 21.07 0.06 -1.02
SBI Nifty Index Reg Gr Q2 17/01/02 7.74 44.36 6.65 10.58 13.77 870.34 21.18 0.04 -1.48
ICICI Pru Nifty Next 50 Index Gr Q2 25/06/10 8.02 30.76 4.80 9.02 9.64 824.63 20.46 -0.31 -8.56
Large & Mid- Cap
Mirae Asset Emerging Bluechip Gr Q1 09/07/10 8.74 46.78 15.05 16.03 19.76 11928.63 22.18 0.12
Invesco India Growth Opp Gr Q1 09/08/07 4.80 35.45 4.16 10.90 10.47 3018.01 20.54 0.02
0.14
Tata Large & Mid Cap Reg Gr Q1 25/02/93 8.29 39.75 8.69 9.66 12.04 1666.41 21.40 0.01 -2.39
Kotak Equity Opportunities Reg Gr Q2 09/09/04 6.43 38.47 9.50 11.38 17.53 3884.93 20.46 -0.02 -2.86
Principal Emerging Bluechip Gr Q2 12/11/08 8.59 41.76 13.38 12.39 22.97 2119.85 22.08 -0.12 -5.63
SBI Large & Midcap Reg Gr Q2 25/05/05 7.57 39.41 4.79 9.06 16.12 2912.39 22.59 -0.08 -4.76
Large-Cap
Axis Bluechip Fund Gr Q1 05/01/10 8.46 33.45 10.46 13.12 12.13 18282.98 16.73 0.28 4.62
UTI Mastershare Unit Reg Gr Q1 15/10/86 8.10 40.66 10.70 10.01 15.43 6471.88 19.55 0.02 -1.80
Mirae Asset Large Cap Reg Gr Q1 04/04/08 6.80 44.07 7.08 12.51 14.78 18999.07 20.78 0.02 -1.84
Kotak Bluechip Reg Gr Q2 29/12/98 6.40 41.82 8.59 9.78 17.83 1740.20 20.46 0.04 -1.53
ICICI Pru Bluechip Gr Q2 23/05/08 8.81 38.76
43.80
5.77 10.20 13.02 23486.07 19.72 -0.09 -4.27
SBI Bluechip Reg Gr Q2 14/02/06 10.18 6.97 9.54 10.55 22421.38 20.70 -0.08 -4.14
All returns displayed are for Growth optionReturns are as on 20th Nov 2020
All other data are as on 31st Oct 2020
Top Quartile Funds
Returns Risk Ratios
Scheme Name / Index Name Fund Quartile Inception Date 1 Mth 6 Mth 1 Yr 5 Yr Since
InceptionFund Size INR Cr
3 Yr. Std. Dev
3 Yr. Sharpe
3 Yr. Treynor
Value
UTI Value Opportunities Reg Gr Q1 20/07/05 9.25 42.14 11.42 9.22 13.49 4427.11 20.91 0.00 -2.45
ICICI Pru Value Discovery Gr Q1 16/08/04 7.51 34.52 11.99 6.92 18.54 15421.99 18.89 -0.14
Tata Equity P/E Reg Gr Q2 29/06/04 4.78 38.63 5.62 11.10 17.68 4426.79 21.17 -0.19 -6.86
HDFC Capital Builder Value Gr Q2 01/02/94 6.73 43.08 4.38 8.28 13.71 3924.46 22.68 -0.21 -7.24
Gold
Kotak Gold Reg Gr 25/03/11 -1.61 5.78 30.17 13.40 7.80 769.80 13.61 0.95
Nippon India Gold Savings Gr 07/03/11 -1.58 5.75 29.67 13.10 7.72 1310.57 13.81 0.88
Mid-Cap
DSP Midcap Reg Gr Q1 14/11/06 7.64 39.77 17.35 12.74 14.41 8407.43 22.10 0.01 -3.12
Nippon India Growth Gr Q1 08/10/95 9.31 46.37 13.32 9.83 21.23 7004.74 24.17 -0.08 -5.40
UTI Mid Cap Reg Gr Q2 07/04/04 9.01 48.22 21.20 8.67 16.75 4037.30 23.79 -0.11 -6.51
Small-Cap
Nippon India Small Cap Gr Q1 16/09/10 8.34 54.77 16.82 10.92 15.84 9391.87 28.01 -0.09 -7.53
Kotak Small Cap Reg Gr Q2 24/02/05 9.43 63.82 23.01 10.82 14.80 1855.03 27.23 0.00 -4.94
Global - Other
PGIM India Global Eq Opp Reg Gr Q1 13/05/10 0.60 36.83 63.03 17.26 11.63 392.78 17.20 1.13 21.66
Franklin Ind Feeder-Frank US Opp Gr Q1 06/02/12 0.50 22.07 42.32 17.77 19.50 2281.57 19.41 0.86 16.50
Kotak Emerging Equity Reg Gr Q2 30/03/07 9.49 47.20 14.30 11.58 11.67 7668.47 24.12 -0.03 -4.63
Tata Mid Cap Growth Reg Gr Q2 01/07/94 8.92 43.69 14.98 9.72 11.10 874.78 24.46 -0.01 -4.03
Franklin Asian Equity Gr Q2 16/01/08 7.84 34.46 25.66 13.85 8.84 197.77 17.55 0.24 2.60
Returns are as on 20th Nov 2020, All other data are as on 31st Oct 2020All returns displayed are for Growth option
Top Quartile Funds
Returns Risk Ratios
Scheme Name / Index Name Fund Quartile Inception Date 1 Mth 6 Mth 1 Yr 5 Yr Since
InceptionFund Size INR Cr
3 Yr. Std. Dev
3 Yr. Sharpe
3 Yr. Treynor
Banking & PSU
Axis Banking & PSU Debt Gr Q1 8/6/12 0.68 5.00 9.46 8.71 8.81 18605.61 1.98 1.56
Aditya BSL Bkg & PSU Debt Reg Gr Q2 9/5/08 0.79 5.69 10.72 9.03 8.60 14577.39 2.14 1.27
Conservative Allocation
ICICI Pru Regular Savings Gr Q1 30/3/04 2.18 12.98 9.59 9.39 10.05 2255.57 4.35 0.31
Returns are as on 21st Sep 2020 All other data are as on 31st Aug 2020
Corporate Bond
Aditya BSL Corporate Bond Reg Gr Q1 3/3/97 0.87 6.28 11.80 9.05 9.44 23394.66 1.80 1.65
HDFC Corporate Bond Gr Q1 29/6/10 0.74 5.99 11.46 9.09 9.09 23494.11 2.28 1.30 5.16
Dynamic Bond
Kotak Dynamic Bond Reg Gr Q1 26/5/08 1.00 6.04 11.38 9.70 8.90 1907.68 2.89 1.18
DSP Strategic Bd Reg Gr Q1 9/5/07 0.94 3.83 12.32 8.61 7.37 1776.88 3.92 0.74 3.33
IDFC Dynamic Bond Reg Gr Q1t 3/12/08 0.70 4.32 12.61 9.19 8.71 2809.59 4.04 0.82 3.12
ICICI Pru All Seasons Bond Gr Q2 20/1/10 1.02 5.83 12.44 9.67 9.84 4773.09 2.70 1.02
Returns are as on 21st Sep 2020 All other data are as on 31st Aug 2020
All returns displayed are for Growth option Returns are as on 20th Nov 2020All other data are as on 31st Oct 2020
Top Quartile Funds
Returns Risk Ratios
Scheme Name / Index Name Fund Quartile Inception Date 1 Mth 6 Mth 1 Yr 5 Yr Since
InceptionFund Size INR Cr
3 Yr. Std. Dev
3 Yr. Sharpe
3 Yr. Treynor
Liquid
Franklin India Liquid Super Instl Gr Q1 02/09/05 0.27 1.69 4.65 6.72 7.58 1707.36 0.42 3.05 0.89
Axis Liquid Gr Q1 09/10/09 0.28 1.72 4.56 6.65 7.56 26508.84 0.42 2.62
0.65Mirae Asset Cash Management Gr Q1 12/01/09 0.28 1.71 4.44 6.47 6.54 3153.00 0.41 2.30
Aditya BSL Liquid Reg Gr Q1 30/03/04 0.27 1.78 4.58 6.66 7.35 34021.01 0.40 2.80 0.59
Nippon India Liquid Gr Q1 09/12/03 0.27 1.73 4.54 6.65 7.20 26076.67 0.41 2.70
L&T Liquid Gr Q1 03/10/06 0.27 1.70 4.49 6.60 7.49 7413.92 0.41 2.36
0.56
UTI Liquid Cash Plan Reg Gr Q2 11/12/03 0.28 1.72 4.45 6.62 7.19 26217.58 0.41 2.46 0.52
Low Duration
ICICI Pru Savings Gr Q1 27/9/02 0.58 4.78 8.30 8.12 8.09 23676.84 1.08 1.79
Aditya BSL Low Duration Reg Gr Q2 14/5/98 0.54 4.30 7.81 7.64 7.50 14195.65 0.95 1.71
Medium Duration
SBI Magnum Medium Dur Reg Gr Q1 12/11/03 1.11 6.71 12.58 10.08 8.31 5321.42 2.36 1.37
IDFC Bond M/T Reg Gr Q1 08/07/03 0.66 4.65 10.03 8.19 7.75 3915.62 2.36 0.95
HDFC M/T Debt Gr Q2 06/02/02 1.06 6.99 9.96 8.22 8.05 1715.21 2.38 0.74
ICICI Pru Medium Term Bond Gr Q2 15/09/04 1.09 7.27 11.16 8.20 7.74 5464.64 2.53 0.69
DSP Bond Reg Gr
DSP Bond Reg Gr Q2 29/04/97 0.47 4.39 9.24 6.56 8.12 368.43 4.06 -0.15
ICICI Pru Liquid Gr Q2 17/11/05 0.28 1.75 4.56 6.62 7.59 40246.63 0.41 2.36 0.50
All returns displayed are for Growth option Returns are as on 20th Nov 2020All other data are as on 31st Oct 2020
-0.80
Top Quartile Funds
Returns Risk Ratios
Scheme Name / Index Name Fund Quartile Inception Date 1 Mth 6 Mth 1 Yr 5 Yr Since
InceptionFund Size INR Cr
3 Yr. Std. Dev
3 Yr. Sharpe
3 Yr. Treynor
Money Market
Aditya BSL Money Mgr Reg Gr Q1 13/10/05 0.38 3.00 6.89 7.51 7.08 11973.56 0.59 3.12
Nippon India Money Market Gr Q2 16/06/05 0.36 2.64 6.23 7.33 7.72 6887.14 0.53 3.36
UTI Money Market Reg Gr Q2 13/07/09 0.36 2.78 6.29 7.32 7.78 7776.76 0.53 3.16
Kotak Money Market Reg Gr Q2
Q1
Q2
14/07/03 0.36 2.53 5.92 7.25 7.34 10114.06 0.48 3.54
Overnight
UTI Overnight Reg Gr 24/11/03 0.24 1.50 3.58 5.81 6.16 5708.52 0.44 -2.63
SBI Overnight Fund Reg Gr 01/10/02 0.23 1.48 3.52 5.61 6.76 11580.36 0.36 -4.38
Short Duration
IDFC Bond S/T Reg Gr Q1 14/12/00 0.59 5.10 9.63 8.14 7.76 13210.24 1.85 1.24
Kotak Bond S/T Reg Gr Q1 02/05/02 0.72 5.32 9.83 8.14 7.85 17050.35 1.78 1.24
ICICI Pru Short Term Gr Q2 25/10/01 0.81 5.92 10.57 8.56 8.25 20927.11 1.92 1.16 2.26
SBI Short Term Debt Reg Gr Q2 27/07/07 0.78 4.77 9.52 8.17 7.10 19096.92 1.90 1.09 2.13
DSP S/T Reg Gr Q2 09/09/02 0.73 4.70 9.25 7.81 7.38 3456.97 1.90 0.89 1.73
Ultra Short Duration
SBI Magnum Ultra Short Dur Reg Gr Q1 21/05/99 0.37 2.73 6.17 7.31 7.37 14207.11 0.52 3.31
Aditya BSL Savings Gr Q1 16/04/03 0.47 3.82 7.26 7.98 7.78 16215.21 0.76 2.27
Kotak Savings Fund Reg Gr Q2 13/08/04 0.36 2.80 6.10 7.27 7.68 13539.44 0.58 2.19
Returns are as on 20th Nov 2020All other data are as on 31st Oct 2020
All returns displayed are for Growth option
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