India: Adapting Nuclear in

Post COP-21 Era

Shah Nawaz Ahmad

Senior Adviser

India, Middle East and South-East Asia

SETA 2016

Bangkok, Thailand March 24, 2016

Presentation Title

Name, Job Title

Electricity is an Aspirational

requirement

No matter what the world situation

•Natural Disasters

•War & politics

•Other Man-made Disasters

•Economic Melt-down

The consumption of electricity has kept growing

&

Business has risen to meet this demand

2

Presentation Title

Name, Job Title

World Energy Outlook

Accelerating rise in world

electricity consumption

3

Presentation Title

Name, Job Title

© 2015 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 4

Source: International Energy Agency

IEA 2°C Scenario: Nuclear is Required to Provide

the Largest Contribution to Global Electricity in 2050

Presentation Title

Name, Job Title

Decarbonizing electricity generation

vital by year 2100

5

Several sources incl. IPCC: 2014

Presentation Title

Name, Job Title 6

Other Industries

Average 400,000 tons of ash produced from a coal-fired plant of 1000MWe capacity

As, Hg, Cr, Cd

Presentation Title

Name, Job Title

Time for an effective safety paradigm

Paul Scherrer Institut 1998:

considering 1943 accidents with more than 5 fatalities The alternatives

to nuclear are far

more dangerous

– even including

accidents

Chiba refinery fire

Smog in Beijing

7

Presentation Title

Name, Job Title

Presentation Title

Name, Job Title

In a Nut-shell

•Nuclear power plants are expensive to build but relatively cheap to run.

•In many places, nuclear energy is competitive with fossil fuels as a means of electricity generation.

•Waste disposal and decommissioning costs are included in the operating costs of nuclear power plants.

•If the social, health and environmental costs of fossil fuels are also taken into account, the economics of nuclear power are outstanding.

9

Presentation Title

Name, Job Title

% Fuel Cost

78% 86% 31% 91%

Fuel cost is a key advantage

10

I. Nuclear’s Competitive Advantage

Sources: NEI, DOE 1 Overnight capital cost (EPC plus owners’ costs excluding financing, escalation due to increased material and labor costs, and inflation)

2.55 2.93 0.75

20.37

0.73 0.47

1.65

2.11

0

5

10

15

20

25

Coal Gas Nuclear Petroleum

20

12

cen

ts p

er k

ilow

att-

ho

ur

O&M Costs

Fuel Costs

Presentation Title

Name, Job Title

Stockpiling for Security of Supply

•Any country or power utility may see the need to stockpile reserves of fuel sufficient to endure a major political upheaval in a source country.

•If this is a large reserve supply there are obvious constraints in both paying for it and storing it securely.

•Most kinds of coal can be stored, but with over 3 million tonnes required annually for a 1000 MWe power plant, that storage has space, dust and visual implications.

•Natural gas can be stored underground, but capacity in most countries is not great – a few months’ supply at best.

•Uranium can very readily be stored long-term, and with only about 200 tonnes of natural uranium, or less than 30 tonnes of fabricated fuel, required per year for a 1000 MWe power plant, the advantage is obvious.

11

Presentation Title

Name, Job Title

Nuclear is an important part of the

low carbon solution already

12

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Brazil Sweden Switzerland France Ontario(Canada)

Coal

Gas

Other

Large Hydro

Renewables

Nuclear

Presentation Title

Name, Job Title

Nuclear makes quick, lasting

decarbonisation possible

13

Source: Geoff Russell – nuclear has scaled far more rapidly than renewables

Presentation Title

Name, Job Title 14

Highest level of construction in last

twenty five years: 66 reactors worldwide

1

2

1

1

1

2

2

2

4

4

6

5

8 24

Argentina

Brazil

Finland

Belarus

France

Japan

Pakistan

Slovakia

Chinese Taipei South Korea

UAE

USA

India

Russia China

3

China 2015: 8 reactors began to deliver electricity 6 new construction starts

Source IAEA January 2016

Presentation Title

Name, Job Title

To deliver 1000 GW new nuclear

capacity to 2050

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Connection Rate

31

10

5

25

33

Historic connection rate in the mid of 1980s was 31 GW per year.

Present connection rate is at 5 GW per year.

Period Connection rate Added capacity

GW per year GW

2016-2020 10 50

2021-2025 25 125

2026-2050 33 825

__________________________________

Total new nuclear capacity 1000 GW

Presentation Title

Name, Job Title

Reactor State Type MWe net (each) Commercial

operation Safeguards status*

Tarapur 1&2 Maharashtra GE BWR 150 1969 Item-specific, Oct

2009

Kaiga 1&2 Karnataka PHWR 202 1999, 2000 nil

Kaiga 3&4 Karnataka PHWR 202 2007, 2012 nil

Kakrapar 1&2 Gujarat PHWR 202 1993, 1995 December 2010 under

new agreement

Madras 1&2 (MAPS) Tamil Nadu PHWR 202 1984, 1986 nil

Narora 1&2 Uttar Pradesh PHWR 202 1991, 1992 From Jan 2015 under

new agreement

Rajasthan 1&2 Rajasthan Candu PHWR 90, 187 1973, 1981 Item-specific, Oct

2009

Rajasthan 3&4 Rajasthan PHWR 202 1999, 2000 March 2010 under

new agreement

Rajasthan 5&6 Rajasthan PHWR 202 Feb & April 2010 Oct 2009 under new

agreement

Tarapur 3&4 Maharashtra PHWR 490 2006, 2005 nil

Kudankulam 1 Tamil Nadu PWR (VVER) 917 December 2014 Item-specific, Oct

2009

Total (21)

[13 + 8]

5302

MWe

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Presentation Title

Name, Job Title

Reactor Type MWe gross, net

(each) Project control

Construction

start

Commercial

operation due

Safeguards

status

Kudankulam 2 PWR (VVER) 1000, 917 NPCIL July 2002 2016 item-specific,

Oct 2009

Kalpakkam

PFBR FBR 500, 470 Bhavini Oct 2004

criticality April

2016? nil

Kakrapar 3 PHWR 700, 630 NPCIL Nov 2010 2015?

Kakrapar 4 PHWR 700, 630 NPCIL March 2011 Dec 2015?

Rajasthan 7 PHWR 700, 630 NPCIL July 2011 June 2016?

Rajasthan 8 PHWR 700, 630 NPCIL Sept 2011 Dec 2016?

Total (6) 4300 MWe

gross

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Presentation Title

Name, Job Title

Reactor State Type MWe gross

(each) Project control

Start

construction Start operation

Kudankulam 3 Tamil Nadu AES-92 1050 NPCIL May 2017 2022

Kudankulam 4 AES-92 1050 NPCIL 2017? 2023

Gorakhpur 1

Haryana

(Fatehabad

district)

PHWR 700 NPCIL 2016? 2021

Gorakhpur 2 PHWR 700 NPCIL 2016? 2022

Chutka 1 Madhya Pradesh

(Mandla) PHWR 700 NPCIL 2016? 2024

Chutka 2 PHWR 700 NPCIL 2016? 2025

Bhimpur 1&2 Madhya Pradesh PHWR x 2 700 NPCIL 2016?

Mahi Banswara

1&2 Rajasthan PHWR x 2 700 NPCIL by 2017

Kaiga 5&6 Karnataka PHWR x 2 700 NPCIL by 2017

Kudankulam

5&6 Tamil Nadu AES 92 x 2 1050 NPCIL ?

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Presentation Title

Name, Job Title

Kalpakkam

2&3 Tamil Nadu FBR x 2 600 Bhavini 2017?

Jaitapur

1&2

Ratnagiri,

Maharashtra EPR x 2 1700 NPCIL 2018?

delayed due

to liability

Kovvada

1&2

Srikakulam,

Andhra

Pradesh

ESBWR x 2 1600 NPCIL 2018? delayed due

to liability

Mithi Virdi

1&2

Bhavnagar,

Gujarat AP1000 x 2 1250 NPCIL 2018?

delayed due

to liability

"Haripur

1&2"

another site

West Bengal

(but likely

relocated,

maybe to

Orissa)

AES-2006? 1200 NPCIL

Subtotal

planned

(April 2006

in principle

approval)

24 units 23,900

MWe

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Presentation Title

Name, Job Title

Kudankulam

7&8 Tamil Nadu

AES 92 or

AES-2006 1050-1200 NPCIL

"Kudankula

m 9-12"

Andhra

Pradesh

AES-92 or

AES-2006 1050-1200 NPCIL

Gorakhpur

3&4

Haryana

(Fatehabad

district)

PHWR x 2 700 NPCIL 2019

Rajouli,

Nawada 1-2 Bihar PHWR x 2 700 NPCIL

? PWR x 2 1000 NPCIL/NTPC

Jaitapur 3&4 Ratnagiri,

Maharashtra PWR – EPR 1700 NPCIL

? ? FBR x 4 500 Bhavini

? AHWR 300 NPCIL 2016-17 2022

Jaitapur 5&6 Ratnagiri,

Maharashtra PWR – EPR 1700 NPCIL

Markandi

(Pati

Sonapur)

Orissa PWR 6000

MWe NPCIL

Mithi Virdi

3&4

Bhavnagar,

Gujarat 2 x AP1000 1250 NPCIL

Kovvada 3&4

Srikakulam,

Andhra

Pradesh

2 x ESBWR 1600 NPCIL

20

Presentation Title

Name, Job Title

Nizampatna

m 1-6

Guntur,

Andhra

Pradesh

6x? 1400 NPCIL

"Haripur

3&4"

another site

West Bengal

or Orissa AES-2006? 1200 NPCIL 2022-23

Pulivendula

Kadapa,

Andhra

Pradesh

PWR?

PHWR? 1000? 700?

NPCIL 51%,

AP Genco

49%

Chutka 3&4 Madhya

Pradesh PHWR x 2 700

BHEL-

NPCIL-GE?

Mithi Virdi

5&6

Bhavnagar,

Gujarat AP1000 x 2 1250 NPCIL 2023-24

Kovvada

5&6

Srikakulam,

Andhra

Pradesh

ESBWR x 2 1600 NPCIL

Subtotal

proposed approx 35

38,000

MWe

approx

21

Presentation Title

Name, Job Title Current Indian Energy Resources

Presentation Title

Name, Job Title

Presentation Title

Name, Job Title

The Nuclear Fuel Cycle is not just

for power production

Presentation Title

Name, Job Title 25

“History” of Waste

“ The earth is the aggregate of fusion product” Unstable fusion products undergo decay process to stable elements Evidence: K-40, Th-232, U-235 The earth is the “radioactive waste” from the fusion power plant in the universe But it is classified as “exempt radioactive waste”

Presentation Title

Name, Job Title 26

Oklo- Gabon – Natural reactor

500 000 years of ‘operation’ 5 tons of fission products 1.5 tons of Pu All radionuclides found in HLW

Presentation Title

Name, Job Title

Thank you very much

for your attention

Contact: Ahmad@world-nuclear.org sn.ahmad2006@gmail.com

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