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INDEX Capitales (IAMC) – Yearbook 2012 Ye · PDF file Capitales (IAMC) – Yearbook 2012 YEARBOOK 2012 IAMC Staff General Director: Mario S. Bagnardi Executive Director: Lic. Mónica

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  • CAPITALIZACIÓN BURSÁTIL

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    IAMC Staff General Director: Mario S. Bagnardi Executive Director: Lic. Mónica Erpen Economics Department: Lic. Ramiro Tosi Lic. Mario Maydana IT Department: An.María M. Rodríguez Míguez Lic. Rosa Santantonio Fernando Berástegui Assistants: Mariana Casas Lic. Alberto Pascual Adriana Vidoni Instituto Argentino de Mercado de Capitales (IAMC) 25 de Mayo 359/67 - 8º piso (C1002ABG) Buenos Aires Argentina Tel.: 4316-6042/6036 Fax: 4316-6034 [email protected] www.iamc.sba.com.ar Publication data: Year XIII Proprietary rights register: 978987

    Publishing Director: Mario S. Bagnardi Proprietary: Mercado de Valores de Buenos Aires S.A. (MERVAL)

    YEARBOOK 2012

    INDEX

    Page Argentine Capital Markets in 2012 1

    Merval Index & IAMC Bond Index performance during 2012: graph of the relevant domestic and international issues

    6

    Stock Market Indicators 8

    The Argentine Economy in 2012 9

    Argentine selected macroeconomic indicators 11

    Annual price changes: top performers 12

    Traded Value 13

    Equity Market briefing 15

    Fixed Income Market briefing 16

    Stocks and Cedear’s market shares 18

    Fixed Income market shares 19

    Trust Funds market shares 20

    Corporate bonds market shares 21

    Market indexes portfolios 22

    Merval Index: monthly % variations and closing values 24

    M.AR Index: monthly % variations and closing values 25

    Merval 25 Index: monthly % variations and closing values 26

    IAMC Bond Index: monthly % variations and closing values 27

    Historical volatilities of relevant market indexes 28

    Merval Index: P/E evolution 29

    M.AR Index: P/E evolution 30

    Merval Index: P/BV evolution 31

    M.AR Index: P/BV evolution 32

  • THE ARGENTINE CAPITAL MARKETS IN 2012

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    The Argentine stock markets in the context of world stock market indexes Despite the volatile international context stemming from the crisis in European countries (mainly Greece and Spain) and the fiscal situation in the United States, most of the Stock Markets in the world ended 2012 with positive variations.

    Accordingly, the stability of financial markets relied on two key policies: the FED’s uninterrupted implementation of low interest rates and its bond repurchase scheme (known as “Operation Twist”).

    If we take a glance at the 25 stock market indexes, which the IAMC surveys on a daily basis, we can note that 23 posted hikes (all measured in US dollars) in comparison with year-end 2011, while only 2 recorded a fall.

    The stock market index that saw the highest jump was that of Venezuela (303%), followed by those of Turkey and the Philippines, which posted hikes of 61.5% and 41.9% respectively. The second best-performing Latin- American stock market index was that of Mexico, which climbed by 26.2%.

    On the other hand, the Spanish stock market dropped by 2.3%, while the Brazilian Bovespa inched down by 2.1% (although this fall was triggered by the 9.9% depreciation of the real against the US dollar).

    As for the local market, the Argentine Merval (M.A.R.) showed the worst figure among the 25 stock markets under analysis: down by 8%, while the Merval edged up by 1.6%

    The 10 best-performing Stock Markets in 2012 Variations in US dollars between 12-28-12 and 12-29-11

    41.9%

    40.1%

    31.8%

    26.2%

    23.2%

    18.5%

    18.5%

    1.6%

    18.1%

    61.5%

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    IBC (Venezuela)

    ISE NAC-100 (Turkey)

    PSI (the Philippines) SETI (Thailand)

    DAX-30 (Germany)

    IPC (Mexico) Hang Seng (Hong Kong)

    KOSPI (Korea)

    BUX (Hungary) Swiss Market Index (Switzerland)

    Merval

    M.AR

    It should be noted that in the last month of 2012, the Argentine stock market indexes experienced a remarkable recovery, which enabled them to finish the year with a more favorable performance against the accumulated figure as of November 2012. In December, the Merval index was up by 16.2% in US dollars while M.A.R. advanced 20.2%

    Performance of Local Stocks If we take a look at the 10 best-performing stocks (in pesos) in 2012, the first three are comprised in the General Board. The ranking was topped by Instituto Rosenbusch (ROSE) with a 100% rise, followed by Importadora y Exportadora de la Patagonia (PATA) y Rigolleau (RIGO), with hikes of 89.9% and 88.8%, respectively. Only 3 out of the top 10 belong to the Merval Board: Tenaris, ranking sixth with a variation of 63.9%, Grupo Financiero Galicia in the seventh place with a rise of 58.1% and Banco Francés in the eighth place, up by 44.7%.

    The 2012 top-ten stocks

    In ARS In USD 1. Instituto Rosenbusch (ROSE) 100.0% 90.2%

    2. Import. y Export. de la Patagonia (PATA) 89.9% 80.6% 3. Rigolleau (RIGO) 88.8% 79.5%

    4. Banco Santander (STD) 68.6% 60.3%

    5. Alto Palermo (APSA) 67.4% 59.2%

    6. Tenaris (TS) 63.9% 55.8%

    7. Grupo Financiero Galicia (GGAL) 58.1% 50.4%

    8. BBVA Banco Francés (FRAN) 44.7% 37.5%

    9. Garovaglio y Zorraquín (GARO) 42.7% 35.7% 10. Banco Río (BRIO) 29.3% 22.9%

    Annual VariationStocks

    It is worth mentioning that out of the 10 best-performing stocks, the 7 stocks which do not make up the Merval Index stood for a mere 3% of the total 2012 stock volume (Tenaris, Francés, and Galicia as a whole represent 44% of the total). This is why we consider relevant to analyze what happened with the price of the most traded stocks over the year.

    As a result of the above mentioned, we can conclude that out of the 10 best traded stocks, all of which compose the Merval Index, 6 recorded an upward trend, while 4 went down. Among the best-performing stocks, we can name Tenaris (63.9%), Grupo Financiero Galicia (58.1%) and Banco Francés (44.7%), but the worst- performing ones were Pampa Energía (-50.2%) and YPF (-40.3%).

    2012 Price Variations Top Ten Traded Stocks

    In ARS In USD 1. Grupo Financiero Galicia (GGAL) 58.1% 38.5% 22.34%

    2. Tenaris (TS) 63.9% 43.6% 20.07%

    3. YPF (YPFD) -40.3% -47.7% 13.46%

    4. Telecom Argentina (TECO2) -3.8% -15.8% 7.39%

    5. Petróleo Brasileiro - Ordinarias (APBR) 15.9% 1.5% 7.15%

    6. Banco Macro (BMA) 28.0% 12.2% 6.81%

    7. Siderar (ERAR) -6.0% -17.7% 3.38%

    8. Pampa Energía (PAMP) -50.2% -56.4% 3.01% 9. Petrobras Energía (PESA) 12.7% -1.3% 2.11%

    10. BBVA Banco Francés (FRAN) 44.7% 26.7% 1.93%

    Stocks Annual Variation Market share

  • THE ARGENTINE CAPITAL MARKETS IN 2012

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    As for YPF specifically, it should be noted that in December it witnessed a notable recovery of 27.7%, and thus became the second best-performing stock in the Merval Board over the last month of 2012.

    Stock Market Capitalization As of December 28, 2012 the total stock market capitalization stood at ARS 2.3 trillion (USD 472 billion), which represented a 43.6% rise in comparison with same period of 2011 (26% measured in dollars).

    The local companies capitalization totaled ARS 168 billion (USD 34.3 billion), which implied a decline of 10.2% against year-end 2011 (-21.3% in dollars). In relation to the all-time high recorded in January 2011, the local companies’ capitalization, as measured in pesos, was down by 36.6%. It should be noted that by the end of October 2012, this figure in US dollars was even lower than that of December 2001.

    Stock Market Capitalization of Local and Foreign Companies

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    Out of the 79 local companies comprised in this calculation, 44 saw their capitalization go down (the total reduction amounted to ARS 39 billion), while 35 companies recorded a total hike of ARS 23 billion. Among the main falls, in terms of their impact on the total amount, can be named: YPF (-41%, which accounts for almost 70% of the total decrease), Siderar (-8.7%) and Telecom Argentina (-8.8%). In contrast, the following represent the most outstanding rises: Grupo Financiero Galicia (+57.3%), Banco Ma