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Independent Power Producers Forum
“Update on Pan Asian Energy Development”
A Presentation from Independent Power Producers Forum (IPPF)
At e8-GEF-UNDESA-UNESCAP“ Financing Sustainable Electrification”
South & South-East Asia DialoguesBangkok, Thailand, September 8-10, 2009
By Joel B. Laykin
Secretary General
IPP’s a definition
Brief History
IPPF’s Role – How it all came about.
Our Members - 1 Aggreko Aon AEI Asia Ltd Asian Power
Solutions Black & Veatch Caterpillar Asia
Chevron International City Power CLP Power CRA International Cormetech Inc. Diaz, Reus, Rolff &
Targ
Our Members - 2
DLA Piper EESCO P2E2 HK Emerson Process ExxonMobil Energy Gibson, Dunn &
Crutcher Golden Concord Indra Systems
1
Laykin Communications
Litamos International Marsh Marubeni Asia Mayer Brown JSM Nemron Energy O’Melveny & Myers
Our Members - 3
PB Power PennWell Inc PetroVietnam Pinsent Masons PUFFA Ltd RSW Inc.
Solvina International R.W. Beck Int’l Simmons & Simmons Vista International WestLB AG Worley Parsons
“Update on Pan Asian Energy Development”
Presentation at e8-GEF_UNDESA-UNESCAP
Financing Sustainable ElectrificationSouth & South-East Asia Dialogues
Bangkok, ThailandSeptember 8th – 10th, 2009
Independent Power Producers Forum
1. Energy Values…The Challenge (Basic Questions)
How to change the behavior of seven billion people?
How to deliver the “good life” without ending life on this planet?
How to turn “Being Green” into being profitable
2. Redefining GHG
CDM vrs APP plus Kyoto plus Bali, plus COP-15
Who’s trading what and where?
“Carbon” as the New International Currency
3. The ABCD’s of Energy
A. Supply of Energy
B. Demand for Energy
C. Sources of Fuels
D. Uses of Fuels
4. Changing Concerns– Some Solutions from East
Asia
Metropolitan Asia leads the way with the convergence of capital, technology and official commitment
Hong Kong, Singapore and (supposedly) Shanghai are key facilitators for every possible element, company, sector in the power generation industry in Asia (?)
Fuel supplies, transportation, improved regulators
5. Marketplace Sophistication
Negatives – the UNOCAL Debacle
Positives - Future Gen
- PRC’s economy of scale
6. The “Gold Rush” - 1
Fools rush in where angels fear to tread
Over eighty companies
Western “model” didn’t work. PRC simply wasn’t ready ….. ..or willing
Divide and conquer
7. The “Gold Rush” - 2
The exodus float out on a sea of red-ink and “Rome is burning back home”
Exceptions to the rule, a select few “stay the course”
“Last man standing”------ Colin Tam (Nov, 2004)
8. Because …it’s there!
Why why why do they do it?
If you are a global player with no substantial presence in Asia by 2020, you are not a global player any more.
9. Some Interesting Quotes - 1
“ Stateside power companies dare not look overseas because the analysts will punish them”……John Easton (Mar 2004)
“And, why should they? There is so much low-hanging fruit to keep them busy in the USA”……Bill Ruccius (Dec 2007)
10. Some More Interesting Quotes -
2
Expectation – “Everyone thought that the repeal of “PUHCA” would unleash a new tidal wave of power investment into Asia”…...Thomas Bispham (Jun 2008)
Predictions – Perhaps in a generation, the big U.S. investors, might return ……Robert Bestani (Feb 2006)
11. The PUHCA Paradox - 1
1935-2005, seventy years of commercial handcuffs
A good thing in 1935
A bad thing by 1985
12. The PUHCA Paradox - 2
Long delayed M & A “feeding frenzy…..in slow motion
Prediction – “Within a decade, the approx 200 U.S. IPPs will be reduced to about 60-70 with a half dozen 1200 lbs Gorillas ready to grow overseas”…..Joel Laykin (Mar 2008)
13. The Asian Way
China and India reach out, HK, Singapore, KL, BKK, Tokyo and the Gulf reach in
The 1200 lbs gorillas will have to frolic in Africa or South America
Asian players snapping up low and middle – hanging fruit
14. Some more Over-Arching Issues and Quotes
“The most important bilateral relationship in the world relationship in the world today is that of the USA and the PRC”……Secretary James Baker III (Sept 2007)
“Energy security is the only thing people really do something about”…..Bill Overholt (Oct 2009)
Thank You !
Contact Information:Email: [email protected]
Tel: 852-2894 8105Fax: 852-25775817
Website:www.ippfpowerasia.com
Independent Power Producers Forum
