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IndependentPanelforCapacityProjectReview
ReporttoMurrayDarlingBasinMinisterialCouncil
17December2019
DrJaneDoolan(Chair)DianneDavidsonDavidHarriss
DrTerryHillmanPaulSimpsonGraemeTurner
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ExecutiveSummaryOn4August,2019,theMDBMinisterialCouncilagreedtoappointanindependentpanelofexpertstopeerreviewtheRiverMurrayCapacityandDeliveryShortfallProjectcurrentlybeingundertakenbytheMDBAinpartnershipwithjurisdictions.TheCapacityandDeliveryShortfallProjectwasdevelopedinresponsetoagrowingconcernwithingovernmentsandcommunitiesthat,overtime,theriskoftheRiverMurraysystem(RMS)notbeingabletomeetallsystemanddeliverydemandswasincreasing.TheIndependentPanelforCapacityProjectReview(thePanel)undertookashortterm,highlevelreviewoftheworkprogram,theworkdonetodateandthemodelthathasbeendevelopedtounderpinit.Inundertakingthisreview,thePanelconsideredthattheworkprogramshouldbedesignedtoensurethatitcouldprovidegovernmentswithadequateinformationonallkeyissuesrelatingtotheriskandmanagementofsystemanddeliveryshortfallstoenablethemtomakerobust,evidence-baseddecisionsonoptionsforthefuturemanagementofshortfallrisk.ThePanelmadethreefindingsinrelationtotheworkprogramandtheunderpinningmodel.
Finding1–TheCapacityandDeliveryShortfallProjectworkplanisappropriatelyfocusedontheidentificationoffactorsaffectingtheriskofsystemanddeliveryshortfallswithintheRiverMurraysystemandtheinvestigationofmanagementoptionstoalleviatethatrisk.Issuesrelatedtowateravailabilityareoutsidethescopeoftheproject.
Finding2-ThecurrentriskofasystemordeliveryshortfalldownstreamoftheChokewillincreaseasaconsequenceofreducingchannelcapacityattheBarmahChokeandindownstreamtributaries,increasinghorticulturedevelopmentintheMurrayValley,theincreasedwaterrequirementsofhorticulturedevelopmentsasrecentplantingsmature,andtherequirementtodeliverenvironmentalentitlementstoachieveoutcomesundertheBasinPlan.Thisislikelytobeexacerbatedunderadryingclimate.Finding3-Themodelisappropriateforcomparativeanalysisofscenariostodeterminesensitivitytoriskfactors.Itisnotappropriatetodetermineabsoluterisk.
ThePanelthenmadeanumberofdetailedrecommendationsonwhereadditionalworkwasrequiredtoimprovethecurrentprocess,enableappropriateevaluationofmanagementoptionsandprovidegreaterconfidenceintheanalyses.Theseincludedthefollowing:Understandingtheriskofsystemanddeliveryshortfallsinthecurrentsystem(Section2.1)
1. Incorporatedetailedplantingandirrigation-methoddatafromSouthAustralia(whichisreadilyavailable)intotheSunRISEreportassoonaspracticabletoensurethattheMDBAisusingthebestavailablereferencedatainmanagingtheriversystem.
2. RequestVictoriaandNewSouthWalestoInvestigatethesignificanceofenvironmental
issuesintheLowerGoulburnandMurrumbidgeeRiversandtheirimplicationsforsystemcapacity–thisincludesidentifyingpotentialsummer-autumnflowregimesthatcouldminimiseenvironmentaldamagewhilstfacilitatinginter-valleytransfersintheLowerGoulburnRiverandunderstandingwhetherIVTsarecausingenvironmentaldamageintheLowerMurrumbidgee.
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Understandingwhethershortfallriskchangesunderfuturescenarios(Section2.2)
3. Undertakeasapriority,twoadditionalfuturemodellingscenarios:a. Examiningtheimpactsofclimatechangeonbothinflowsandincreased
temperature.b. Examiningtheimpactofconstraintrelaxationproposalsthatarecurrentlyunder
activeconsiderationbygovernments.Understandingimpactsofsystemordeliveryshortfallsforconsumptiveandenvironmentalentitlementholders(section2.3)
4. Undertakedetailedworkonimpactsanddurationofawaterdeficitatdifferentpointsinthegrowingseasonforavarietyofcropstakingintoconsiderationvariationsinsoiltypeacrossthemajorriverreaches.
5. Developindicatorsofenvironmentaldeliveryshortfalls.
6. Undertakedetailedworkinconsultationwithenvironmentalwaterholderstounderstand
theimplicationsofshortfallsforarangeofcategoriesofenvironmentalwateringeventsunderdifferentclimatesequencestounderstandtheirimpactsonenvironmentaloutcomes.
Assessingtheimpactsofpossiblemanagementoptions(Section2.4)
7. Asanimmediatepriority,jurisdictionsshoulddevelopacontingencyframeworkformakingdecisionsonhowtheywillmanageshortfallswhentheyoccurandagreeonkeysteps,rolesandresponsibilitiesinimplementingandcommunicatingthesedecisions.Thisshouldalsoincludeconsiderationofenvironmentaldeliveryshortfalls.
8. RevisitpreviousworkonBarmahChokebypassoptionsandundertakeafirst-cutfeasibilityanalysistobringforwardrevisedsetofoptionsinmid-2020.
9. DeterminetherateofsedimentationofBarmahChokeandfeasibilityofextractionto
increasecapacity.
ModelCapability(Section2.5)
10. Asahighpriority,improvetherepresentationofenvironmentalwateringdemandsacrossthesystem,andtheabilitytoindicatewhenenvironmentalwaterordersarenotabletobemet.
11. Undertakeanumberofgeneralmodelimprovementsincludingamorecontemporaryrepresentationof:Victorianallocationpolicies,modelledinflowsfromtheGoulburnandMurrumbidgeevalleys,LakeVictoriaoperatinglevels,rivertransmissionlossesintheBarmahChokeareaandtheinterimoperationalmeasuresintheLowerGoulburnrecentlyintroducedbyVictoria.
12. Reviewpotentialforoperationalanalysistoinformtheinterpretationofmodelleddelivery
shortfalls.
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Finally,thePanelexaminedthetimelines,resourcingandgovernanceoftheprojectandmadethefollowingrecommendations.Timelines,reviewandresourcing(Section3)
13. ExtendthetimelinefortheprojectandplanitoveraperiodtillJune2021.
14. Includeregular6-9monthlyreviewsoftheprojectoutputsandplannedactivities.
15. MaintainatleastcurrentlevelsofresourcingwithinMDBAandjurisdictions.GovernanceandCommunication(Section4)
16. EnsurethatjurisdictionalrepresentativesontheCPWGhavetheskills,authorityandtimeavailabletoproperlymanagetheproject.
17. Asahighpriority,developasharedproactivecommunicationstrategyincludingkey
messages,clearrolesandresponsibilitiesforcommunicatingwithstakeholdersandaclearpathwayforstakeholderstoengage.
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1 IntroductionOn4August,2019,theMDBMinisterialCouncilagreedtoappointanindependentpanelofexpertstopeerreviewtheRiverMurrayCapacityandDeliveryShortfallProjectcurrentlybeingundertakenbytheMDBAinpartnershipwithjurisdictions.PanelmembersandfinalTermsofReferencewereagreedbytheBasinOfficialsCommitteeon10October2019andareprovidedatAppendixA.TheBOCdeterminedthattheIndependentPanelforCapacityProjectReview(thePanel)wouldbeestablishedtoundertakeashorttermpieceofwork(reportingbacktotheMinisterialCouncilon17December,2019)to:
– ProvideadviceontheCapacityandDeliveryShortfallProjectworkplanincluding• Scope,timeframes,resourcesandriskmanagement.
– Peerreviewtechnicalandpolicyworktoensureitisadequatetoprovidehighqualityadvicetogovernmentsonoptionsforthefuturemanagementofshortfallriskincludingreviewingthe:
• modellingapproach;• adequacyofdataandanalyses;and• adequacyofexistingandproposedpolicydevelopmenttoaddressissues
relatingtothedeliverabilityofallwaterentitlementsintheRiverMurraysystem.
ThePanelChairprovidedadetailedpresentationoftheirconclusionsandrecommendationstoBOC20November2019.
1.1 ProjectContext
TheCapacityandDeliveryShortfallProjectwasdevelopedinresponsetoagrowingconcernwithingovernmentsandcommunitiesthat,overtime,theriskoftheRiverMurraysystem(RMS)notbeingabletomeetallsystemanddeliverydemandswasincreasing.Theconcernwasgeneratedbyobservationsthat,inthe2014-15and2015-16wateryears,flowsintheRiverMurraywereatorclosetosystemcapacityforlongperiodsoftime.Thiswasduetohighoverallwateravailabilitywithinthesystem,combinedwithdryconditions.Whilstdemandswereabletobemetinthoseyears,theprospectofanincreasingriskofasystemordeliveryshortfallhadbeenraised.FromtheperspectiveoftheMDBjointventure,thequestionneededtobeansweredand,iffoundtobecorrect,actiontakentomitigatetherisk.Thesituationhasarisenbecauseofchangesinthetypicalhistoricdemandpatternthathaveoccurredgraduallyoverthepast25yearsasaresultofwaterreform,coupledwithaclimaticsequencewherethesystemhasbeenindroughtformuchofthatperiod.Inthepast(i.e.pre1994),theRMSanditsmajortributarieswereoperatedtosupplyanumberofgenerallypredictableconsumptivedemands.Theseincluded:
– SouthAustralia’sentitlementflow;– townwatersuppliesanddomesticandstockalongthesystem;and– consistentirrigationdemandsinknownirrigationdistrictsandprivatedivertersinknown
locations.
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Meetingthesedemandsthroughouttheseasonhasalwaysbeenachallengeforriveroperatorsbecauseofthenaturally-occurringBarmahChokeinthemid-RiverMurraywhichisamajorconstraintonthetransferofwaterbetweentheupperstorages(i.e.HumeandDartmouthDams)anddemandsinthelowerriverreaches.However,thepredictabilityofthesedemandsenabledriveroperatorstooptimisetheirmanagementofthesystembytransferringwaterintoLakeVictoriainthefarsouth-westofNSWearlierintheseason(i.e.overlatespring)sothatSouthAustralia’sentitlementflowcouldbestoredandsuppliedfromLakeVictoriainsummerandautumnratherthanfromHumeandDartmouthdams.ThisenabledwatertobeavailablefromthesestoragestomeetirrigationdemandsinNSWandVictoriabetweentheBarmahChokeandtheSouthAustralianborder.Inpastdecades,LakeVictoriahasalsobeenfilledfromsharedresourcesintheMenindeeLakesontheDarlingRiver.Evenunderthesearrangements,therehasalwaysbeenaninherentriskofadeliveryshortfall.However,inthepast25years,anumberofchangeshasoccurred.Governmentshaveintroducedsomesignificantpolicychanges,including:
– theintroductionofwatertradingandtheestablishmentofaninterstatewatermarketforbothpermanententitlementsandwaterallocations.Asaresultofwatertrading,therearenowsignificantnewareasofpermanentplantingsintheSunraysiaandRiverlandareaswhichdidnotexist25yearsago;and
– thedevelopmentoftheBasinPlanwhichrequiredrecoveryandtransferofasignificantvolumeofconsumptiveentitlementstotheenvironmentwithenvironmentalwaterholdersnowholding~1970GLacrossthesouthernconnectedsystemtobemanagedtomeetanewandverydifferentsuiteofdemandswhichwillevolveinresponsetonewknowledge.Someofthesedemandsrequiretheprovisionofhighflowsi.e.upto50000ML/daydownstreamofYarrawonga(althoughthisiscurrentlylimitedto15,000ML/d).
Inaddition,thepast25yearshasincludedsomeofthedriestperiodsonrecordandasaconsequence,businesseshavechangedthewaytheyusedwaterandgovernmentshavemadeanumberofchangestorulesincludingcarryoverofunusedallocationandchangestosystemreservetoassistentitlementholderstomanagethroughdrought.Allofthesechangescombinedhaveledtosubstantialchangesindemandpatterns.Theyhaveshiftedlargelydownstreamandarenowfarmoredynamicinnaturethateverbefore.Thishasoccurredagainstabackgroundofchanginginflows(e.g.throughmuchofthepast20yearstheDarlingRiverhasbeenindroughtandthecontributionofwaterfromtheMenindeeLakestotheRMSforthispurposehasbeenlimited).Riveroperatorshavehadtoadapttheirsystemmanagementandbecomemoreflexibleandadept.TheyarenowrunningsectionsoftheRiverMurrayatcapacityformuchofthetime,andincreasinglyrelyingonInter-valleyTransfers(IVT)frommainlytheGoulburnRiverandsometimestheMurrumbidgeeRiver.InthePanel’sview,giventhemajorchangesthathaveoccurredoverthelast25yearsandthechangingclimate,thisissuewasalwaysgoingtobehavingtobedealtwith–itwasmoreaquestionofwhen.
1.2 PanelApproach
Giventheshorttimeframe,thePanelundertookahigh-levelreviewoftheCapacityandDeliveryShortfallProjectworkplan(AppendixB)whichhadbeendevelopedbytheMDBAandendorsedbytheCapacityPolicyWorkingGroup(CPWG).Thisincluded:
– MeetingsbetweenthefullPanelandMDBAprojectstaffontheoverallworkprogram.– MeetingsbyPanelexpertsonspecifictechnicalissuesincluding
– modelling–withMDBAmodellersandrelevantjurisdictionalstaff
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– environmentalwaterdemandsandmethodsofassessingimplicationsofpolicyoptionsonenvironmentaloutcomes
– methodsofassessingimplicationsofpolicyoptionsonagriculturalproductionandindustries.
– Peerreviewoftworeportsandprojectscopedocuments.– APanelrepresentativeattendingtwomeetingsoftheCapacityPolicyWorkingGroup.– AfinalteleconferencewithjurisdictionalmembersofCPWGtodiscussthebroadoutcomes
andconclusions.Nostakeholderconsultationwasundertaken.
1.3 ProjectScope
ThePanelconsidersthatthefocusoftheprojectshouldbeontheidentificationoffactorswhichcouldincreasetheriskofsystemanddeliveryshortfallswithintheRiverMurraysystemandtheinvestigationofmanagementoptionstoalleviatethatrisk.Awatersupplyshortfallisdefinedasaninabilitytoprovideentitlementholderswiththeirwaterallocationswhenandwheretheywantit.Thisincludesallentitlementholders–bothconsumptiveandenvironment.1ThePanelnotesthatashortfallinwatersupplycanoccurintwoways.
• Systemshortfall–wherethesystemmanagementisunabletodeliversystemrequirementsoverthefullseason.Underthisscenario,LakeVictoriadropstoolowanditispotentiallynecessarytorestrictconsumptive/environmentaldiversionsintoNSWandVictoriadownstreamoftheBarmahChokeinordertosupplymoreofSAentitlementflowfromtheupperMurray.Thisgenerallyoccursasaresultofchannelcapacityconstraints.
• Short-termdeliveryshortfall-whereaspikeindemandexceedswateravailableinriverfordiversions.Theseshortfallscanresultfromextended/intenseheatwaves.Thelongtraveltimesfromtheupperstorages(3-4weeks)andcapacityconstraintsattheBarmahChokemeanthatitisnotpossibletorespondtoreleasewaterintimetomeetdemands andotherpotentialmitigationmeasures(e.g.temporarydrawdownofweirpools)maybeinadequatetoavoidashorttermshortfall.
ThePanelrecognisesthattheriskofasystemordeliveryshortfallwithintheRiverMurraysystemisoftenconfusedinthepublicdomainwiththeriskposedtoentitlementholdersbyreducedwateravailabilityduetodrought.InthePanel’sviewthesearetwoverydifferentthingsandtheroleforgovernmentsineachisquitedifferent.
• Inthecaseofasystemordeliveryshortfall,theriskisthatactualwaterallocatedtoentitlementholdersinaseasoncannotbesuppliedtothemwhentheyneeditbecauseofissuesinsystemmanagement.ThemanagementoftheRiverMurraysystemisthejointbusinessofjurisdictionsandisundertakenbytheMDBAontheirbehalfundertheMDBAgreement.GiventhatanysystemordeliveryshortfallistheresponsibilityoftheMDBJoint
1ThePanelnotes,thatstrictlyundertheMDBAgreement,itisactuallythestatesthatsuffertheshortfallbuttheycanonlymanageitbyrestrictingaccesstotheirentitlementholderssotheeffectisfeltbyentitlementholders.
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Venture,thereisaroleforgovernmentstoreviewsystemmanagementand,wherepracticable,alleviatethisrisk.
• Inthecaseofreducedwateravailabilitybecauseoflowinflowstothesystem,thisisaprivateriskbornebytheentitlementholderwhomakesabusinessdecisiononthevolumeandtypeofentitlementsrequiredtosupporttheirbusinessenterpriseandindoingso,choosestheirlevelofriskbasedontheircommercialdecision-making.Theroleforgovernmentsinthiscaseisaboutprovidingadequateinformationtothemarketandcommunitytoinformthesedecisions.
Giventhis,thePanelreviewedtheCapacityandDeliveryShortfallProjectworkplanandconsidersthatitisappropriatelyfocusedonthenecessaryissues.
1.4 ConceptualModelforReview
InreviewingtheCapacityandDeliveryShortfallProjectworkplan,thePanelconsideredthatitshouldbedesignedtoensurethatitcouldprovideMinisterswithadequateinformationonallkeyissuesrelatingtotheriskandmanagementofsystemanddeliveryshortfallssogovernmentscouldmakerobust,evidence-baseddecisionsonoptionsforthefuturemanagementofshortfallrisk.Weconsideredtherewerefivekeyareasthattheworkplanneededtocover(Fig1).Theseinclude
1. Understandingtheriskofsystemanddeliveryshortfallsinthecurrentsystem.2. Understandingwhetherthatriskchangesunderlikelyfuturescenarios.3. Understandingtheimpactsofeithersystemordeliveryshortfallsforbothconsumptive
andenvironmentalentitlementholders.4. Assessingtheimpactsonentitlementholdersofarangeofpossiblemanagement
options(includingpolicy,structuralandoperationaloptions)tosupportdecision-making.
5. Thedevelopmentofamodelandaprogramofmodellingworkthatcouldsupporttheseanalyses.
Finding1–thePanelconsidersthattheCapacityandDeliveryShortfallProjectworkplan is appropriately focused on the identification of factors affecting the risk ofsystemanddeliveryshortfallswithintheRiverMurraysystemandtheinvestigationofmanagementoptionstoalleviatethatrisk.Issuesrelatedtowateravailabilityareoutsidethescopeoftheproject.
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Fig1.ConceptualmodelofaWorkPlantosupportevidence-baseddecision-makingondeliveryshortfallriskForeachofthesekeyelements,wereviewedrelevantareasoftheworkprogramtodetermine:
• Whetherthecurrentwork(undertakentodateandplanned)wasappropriate• Whethertherewereanygaps• Iftherewerepossibleimprovementsthatcouldbemade• Whethersomeareasrequiredahigherpriority• Ifthemodellingcapabilitywasadequateforthetask.
Wethenfinallyexaminedtheprojectgovernancearrangementsandthecommunicationplan.Ourcomments,findingsandrecommendationsforeachoftheseelementsareoutlinedintheSectionsbelow.
2 ReviewofKeyElementsofCapacityandDeliveryShortfallWorkProgram
Inreviewingtheworkprogram,thePanelnotedthatiteffectivelyhas18monthsstilltorunandthattheworktodatehadbeenfocusedonbuildingthemodelwhichwillprovidethebasisformuchoftheanalysisandpopulatingitwithdata.Therefore,someelementsarefurtheradvancedthanothersandanumberarescheduledforcompletionin2020andsomehaveyettocommence.
2.1 RiskinCapacityandDeliveryShortfallsintheCurrentSystem
Inestablishingthewatersupplyshortfallriskinthecurrentsystem,anumberoftaskshavebeencompleted.Theseinclude:
Assesspotentialimpacts
ManagementOptions• Identifyoptions• Assessimpactofoptionsonentitlementholders
Modelling- futurescenarios
Policyoptions
FutureRisk• Dorisksincreaseordecreaseunderlikelyfuturescenarios
CurrentSystem•Assesscurrentrisk•Understanddriversofrisk• Isproblemincreasing?•Arethereotherfactors
Modelling- sensitivityanalysis
Modelling- currentconditions
Analysisofhistoricaldata
Examples• Increasechoke
capacity• Chokebypass
options
Examples• Tradelimitations
eg RestrictingIVT,lateseasontrade
• Protocols withewater managers
• Landandwaterusecontrols
Examples• Constraint
relaxation• Mid-murray and
weiroperations• Riskofspill in
LakeVictoria
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- Understandingcurrentwateruseanditsdrivers.Thisinvolved:
o UpdatingfiguresforirrigatedcropareasintheLowerMurray-Darling(undertakenbySunRISE21)asinputtothemodel;and
o AnanalysisofwateruseinthereachBarmah-SAborderoverthepast25yearstofullyunderstandtheextentofchangeinwaterdemands(theHARCreport).
- UnderstandingthereductioninBarmahChokecapacityThechannelcapacityattheBarmahChoketopassregulatedflowshasbeenreducingoverthepastthreedecadesfrom11,500ML/dinthe1980’s,to10,500ML/dinthemid-1990’sto9,200ML/din2019.WorkundertakenbytheMDBA,supportedbySAWaterhasidentifiedthatsectionsofriverbankonoutsidebendsareexperiencingincreasingratesoferosion,butthatthechannelisreducingbecauseofsedimenttransportfromupstreamoftheBarmahChoke.AgeomorphologicalstudysuggeststhatitisduetoasandslugmovingslowlyfromVictoriantributariesdowntheriver.However,theincreasingerosionofoutsidebendsoftheriverandunderminingofriparianvegetationisdamagingthenaturalvaluesoftheforestandgivesthebroadercommunitythepotentiallyerroneousimpressionthattheincreasinglyconstantdeliveryofhighflowsthroughtheBarmahChokeisresponsiblefordecreasingchannelcapacity.
ThePanelreviewedboththeHARCandtheSunRISE21reportsandmadethefollowingcomments.SunRISE21reportThisreport,commissionedbytheMDBAforuseinconfiguringtheSOURCEmodel,providesirrigatedcropareadatafortheLowerMurrayDarling2003-2018.ThereportcoverstheRiverMurrayreaches10-22,approximatelyfromLakeBogatotheBarrages.ThedataistakenfromaerialimageryofJanuary2018,and‘forVictoriaandNSWdatawassourcedfromover80%ofirrigators.Thedataisconsideredtobethemostuptodateavailableasofthe2017/2018seasonwiththereportmappingchangesintheirrigatedcropareasoverthe15yearsandreportingthemethodsofirrigation.ThePanelnotedthatthedata,aspresented,appearsacceptableforNSWandVictoria,buttheSouthAustraliandataisincompleteandentirelyinadequate.InReach22,some6000haofpermanentplantings(grapevines)intheLanghorneCreekandCurrencyCreekareaarenotrecorded,eventhoughtheyliewithintheMDB.Inaddition,waterdrawnfromReaches19/20isusedtoirrigateapproximately5000-6000haofhighvalueplantingsintheBarossaandClareValleys.WhilstSouthAustralia’suseofRiverMurraywateriscapped,themodel’sfocusonensuringthedeliveryof1850GLeachyeardoesnotallowforanyconsiderationofthewaterrequirementsofthesecrops,northetimingthereof,northeeconomicimpactofaseriousshortfall.ThePanelconsidersthatdetailedplantingandirrigation-methoddatafromSouthAustralia(whichisreadilyavailable)shouldbeincorporatedintotheSunRISEreportassoonaspracticabletoensurethattheMDBAisusingthebestavailablereferencedatainmanagingtheriversystem.HARCreportThisreport,undertakenasanindependentreviewbyHydrologyandRiskConsulting(HARC),examinedthehistoricaluseofwater,usingSunRISEcropdataforNSW,VictoriaandSouthAustralia.Ithasshown:
• Asignificantincreaseincroparea,particularlypermanentplantings,downstreamoftheBarmahChoke;
• Recoveryofwaterentitlementsfortheenvironment;• ExpansionofpermanenthorticultureintheSunraysiaregion;
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• Increasedinter-valleytradeofwaterfromtheGoulburnandMurrumbidgeeRiversintotheMurray,and
• IncreasedflowstoSouthAustraliaduetotradeandenvironmentalflows.
TheanalysisundertakenbyHARC,concludedthattherehasbeenlittlechangetotheannualpatternofconsumptive(irrigation)usedownstreamoftheBarmahChokealthoughdemandhasmovedfromclosertotheBarmahChoke(Torrumbarry)downstreamtoSunraysia.Theanalysisalsoindicatesthatenvironmentalwateruseandconsumptivewateruse(includingtradetoSouthAustralia)arecombiningtogeneratehigherpeakmonthlydemands.TheprimaryconclusionbyHARCisthatthecombinedconsumptiveuse,inter-valleytradeandthegenerallyseparatetimingofconsumptiveandenvironmentalflowsshowstherehasbeennoincreaseintotalorpeakseasonconsumptivedemandintheMurraysystemovertime.This,in-turn,wouldindicatethattherehasbeennoincreaseinthepotentialforsupplyordeliveryshortfallsovertime.WhiletheHARCanalysisconsidersthehistoricaluseofwaterandconcludesthereisnoincreaseinpotentialforsupplyordeliveryshortfalls,itonlyconsiderstheimpactonconsumptiveentitlements,andassumesthereisnoconflictwiththedeliveryofenvironmentalentitlements,whichmaynotbevalidinallyears.ThePanelconsidersthattheHARCreportisausefulinput.Takenonitsown,itsuggeststhatthereisnochangeinshortfallrisksolelyasaresultofgrowthinirrigatedhorticultureplantings.However,thePanelconsidersthatthisisnoreasonforcomplacencyasthereareanumberofotherfactorsthatneedtobeacknowledgedinrelationtothecurrentsystem.Theseinclude
1. ImplicationsofcurrentpermanentplantingforfuturewaterdemandsPlantingsinSunraysiaandRiverlandarenotyetatfullmaturityanddevelopmentiscontinuingtooccur.TheSunRISEreportdoesnotrecordthenewnutplantingsinSunraysiain2019andtheAlmondBoardexpectstheretobeanincreaseofalmostanother10%ofplantingsinthecurrentwaveofdevelopmenttoreach50,000haacrossallstates.TheAlmondBoardindicatesthat38%ofthetotalplantingsareinVictoria,20%inSouthAustraliaand8%inNSW.TheBoardfurtherestimatesthatabout30%ofcurrentplantingsareyoungornotatfullmaturity,sowiththeseorchardsandothersyettobeplantedthereisclearlygoingtobeahigherdemandfromtheriversysteminSunraysiaandSouthAustralia.
2. PotentialfuturereductionsinSystemCapacitya. BarmahChoke-TheanalysisundertakenbyHARCconcludesthatthedirected
releaseofenvironmentalwaterfromHumeDamaretimedtoensurenoincreasedpressureontheBarmahChoke.However,thePanelbelievesthatthecumulativeincreaseindiversionsthroughtheChoke,fortransfertoLakeVictoria,fordeliveryofwaterforconsumptiveuseandfordeliveryofenvironmentalentitlementsisresultinginhighflowspassingthroughtheChokeformuchlongerperiodsthanwouldhaveoccurrednaturallyandiscontributingtotheincreasederosionoftheriverbanks.ThetrajectoryandrateofsedimentationoftheBarmahChokeduetothesandslugalsoneedstobedeterminedtounderstandwhetheritwillcontinuetoreduceandbyhowmuch.
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b. TheLowerGoulburn-AnecdotalevidenceprovidedtotheExpertPanelsuggeststhatthechannelandriparianenvironmentoftheLowerGoulburnRiverisbeingseverelydegradedasaconsequenceoftheintervalleytransferoflargevolumesofwaterfromtheGoulburnValleyinsummerandautumninthepastfewyears.TheVictorianGovernmentrecentlyintroducedinterimarrangementsforIVTsfromtheGoulburnRivertoreducethedetrimentalimpactofthesetransfersontheenvironmentoftheLowerGoulburnRiver.Theimpactoftheseinterimmeasuresonsystemcapacitywillneedtobeunderstoodandtheireffectivenessinreducingenvironmentalimpactswillneedtobemonitored.ThePanelnotesthat,dependingonthesuccessoftheseinterimmeasures,furtherrestrictionsmaybenecessaryinthefuture-whichcouldinturnimpactsystemcapacity.
c. TheMurrumbidgeeRiver–ThePanelalsoheardthattheremaybepotentialfor
environmentaldegradationoccurringasaresultofIVTsintheMurrumbidgeeRiver.Thereseemedtobelessevidencetosupportthis.Giventhis,thePanelconsidersthatitisimportanttoestablishwhetherthisisanactualissuewhichwillrequireactionornot.
3. ActualEnvironmentalShortfallin2018-In2018,theMDBAwasunabletodeliverenvironmentalentitlementsinspringandsummerasthechannelcapacityoftheBarmahChokewasalreadyexceededinthedeliveryofwatertomeetdownstreamconsumptivedemandandthetransferofwatertoLakeVictoria(IRORG2019).Thisisthefirstactualshortfallsince2002.
4. RMSdrivenmuchharderoverthelast20years–asreportedpreviouslytoMinisterialCouncil(August2019),thelast20yearshavebeendrierthanpreviousandRMoperationshashadtodrivethesystemmuchhardertomeethigherpeakdemandsinsummerwhentradeandenvironmentalwaterdeliveriestoSouthAustraliaaretakenintoaccount.Theyhavereportedthatusinganumberofcontingencyactionswithintheircontroltoavoiddeliveryshortfallshasvirtuallybecomenormalpracticeandthereisnofurtheroperationalbufferthatcanbeemployed.
5. Consequencesofdeliveryshortfallsaresignificantlyhigher–becauseofthelevelof
investmentinSunraysiaandtheRiverland,theeconomicconsequencesofanactualdeliveryshortfall(dependingontimingandduration)onirrigatorsislikelytobemuchhigherthaninthepastwhilsttheimpactofashortfallontheenvironmentisyettobeassessed.
Asaconsequence,thePanelconsidersthatariskofsystemanddeliveryshortfallsintheRiverMurraydownstreamoftheBarmahChoketotheSouthAustralianborderremains,particularlyindryseasonswithhighwaterallocationsthatrestrictstheuseofMurrayIrrigationLimitedchannelinfrastructure(theMulwalacanal)topassadditionalvolumesaroundtheBarmahChoke.Moreover,thecurrentriskiscomplicatedbythelackofsecurearrangementsforaccesstoadditionalcapacitythroughtheuseoftheMulwalaCanal.Currently,theJointVentureonlyhastemporaryarrangementswithMurrayIrrigationLimited,andtherehasbeennoagreementinplaceinsomeyears.Moreover,thePanelalsobelievestheriskofsystemordeliveryshortfallswillpotentiallyincreaseasthecapacityoftheBarmahChokeanddownstreamtributariesreduces,ashorticulturedevelopmentcontinues,andifthepatternofthedeliveryofenvironmentalentitlementsshouldextendfurtherintoperiodsofpeakconsumptivedemand.Thisislikelytobeexacerbatedunderclimatechange.
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2.2 RiskinCapacityandDeliveryShortfallsunderLikelyFutureScenariosThenextlogicalstepistounderstandhowthecurrentriskofsystemanddeliveryshortfallscouldchangeunderlikelyfuturescenarios.TheworkprogramincludedseveralscenariostobetestedandcompletedbyMay-June2020.Theseincludedchangestoinflowsequences,reductionsinBarmahChokecapacityandincreasingconsumptivedemandinthelowerreachtosimulatecurrentplantationsreachingfullmaturityandfurtherdevelopment.ThePanelconsidersthattherearetwoadditionalscenariosthatneedtobeundertakenasapriority.Theseare
1. Climatechangescenario–incorporatingasfaraspossiblea. potentialchangesininflowsb. likelyirrigatorresponsetobothincreasedtemperaturesandreducedwater
availability
2. ConstraintRelaxationscenario–ThePanelconsidersthatideallythereshouldbeascenariowhichlooksattheimpactoffullBasinPlanimplementationincorporatingallSDLAMprojectsandunconstrainedenvironmentaldeliverysequences.However,thePanelunderstandsthatmanyoftheSDLAMprojectsarestillunderactivediscussion.Consequently,itwilltakeanumberofyearstofullydeveloptheenvironmentaldeliverypatternanditisnotpossibletoundertakethisinthenextfewmonths.However,thePanelconsidersthereisrealmeritinmodellingtheimpactoftheconstraintproposalsthatarecurrentlyunderactiveconsiderationbygovernmentsandwhichdirectlyaffectthecapacityoftheRiverMurraysystem.ItisimportantforgovernmentstounderstandwhethertheseproposalsarelikelytoaffecttheriskofawatersupplyshortfallandthereforewhethertheywouldhaveanyadditionalbenefitsfortheRMSoverandabovetheenvironmentaloutcomesoftheBasinPlan.
Theseadditionaltwopiecesofworkwillassistgovernmentsinunderstandingwhetherthecurrentriskislikelytobeincreasedordecreasedunderthesefuturescenarios.
2.3 UnderstandingImpactsofCapacityandDeliveryShortfallsonEntitlementHolders
InadditiontounderstandingthecurrentandfutureriskofsystemanddeliveryshortfallsintheRMS,itisimportanttounderstandtheconsequencesofashortfallonentitlementholdersshoulditactuallyoccur.Therearelikelytobesignificantdifferencesbetweenconsumptiveusers(i.e.irrigators)andtheenvironmentinarangeofparameterstobeconsidered.Theseinclude;
Finding2 - thePanel considers that the current risk of a systemor delivery shortfalldownstreamoftheChokewillincreaseasaconsequenceofreducingchannelcapacityattheBarmahChokeandindownstreamtributaries,increasinghorticulturedevelopmentintheMurrayValley,theincreasedwaterrequirementsofhorticulturedevelopmentsasrecentplantingsmature,andtherequirementtodeliverenvironmentalentitlementstoachieveoutcomesundertheBasinPlan.Thisislikelytobeexacerbatedunderadryingclimate.
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- theidentificationofashortfalli.e.howitisdefinedinthemodelforirrigationand
environment- thetypesofshortfallsthatwillimpacte.g.ashort-termdeliveryshortfall(durationofdays)in
summerisunlikelytohaveenvironmentaleffectsbutcouldhavesevereimpactsongrowers.Whereasalong-termcapacityconstraintinspringcouldcutshortalongtermplannedenvironmentaldeliveryresultinginanunsuccessfulbirdbreedingeventwiththedeathsoflargenumbersofchicks.
Worktodatehasfocusedondevelopingthecapabilitytoquantifyeconomicimpactsonconsumptiveusers(i.e.irrigators)withworkbeingundertakenbyAgricultureVictoria.Thisworkiscurrentlyinprogressandneedscarefulscopingtoensurethatitwillbecredibletoirrigators.Suchworkwillneedtobequitedetailedwithattentiongiventothewithinseasonwaterrequirementsofdifferentpermanentplantingsandtotheimpactsanddurationofawaterdeficitatdifferentpointsinthegrowingseasonsuchasflowering,fruitsetorfruitmaturity.Toaddtothecomplexity,themaincropsofgrapevines,nutsandcitrusdonothavesynchronisedgrowingseasons.Theworkshouldalsoattempttoconsidermajorvariationsinsoiltype(soilwaterholdingcapacity)indifferentreaches,assomedistrictsmaywellcopebetterwithashortfallthanothers.Lessattentionhasbeenpaidtodatetotheenvironmentalimpactsofasystemordeliveryshortfallalthoughitisscheduledontheworkprogramforthenextfewmonths.Thisisbecauseenvironmentalwateringisanewmanagementdisciplineandourunderstandingofthefactorsinfluencingitssuccessiscontinuingtoevolveasenvironmentalwaterholdersundertakemorecomplexwateringevents.Intryingtodeterminetheriskprofileofdeliveringenvironmentalwaterortheimpactofsufferingashortfallinthatdelivery,thefollowingshouldbenoted:
• Therelationshipbetweenthevolumeofdeficitandecologicalresponseisoftennon-linear.Failuretoactivateanenvironmentaltriggerexpectedfromanenvironmentalwateringeventmayresultinwastingthetotalenvironmentalallocation.Itfollowsthatproratareductioninvolumeamongstenvironmentalflowsfacingashortfallisaninappropriateresponse.Areviewofprioritiestofewersitesmaybebetteruseoftheavailableenvironmentalwater.
• Timingofthebeginningofanenvironmentalfloweventmaybenegotiable(weeks)but,onceit’scommenced,theshapeofthehydrographiscriticalandneedstobemaintainedoverthefulldurationtoachievetheenvironmentaloutcomes.
ThePanelrecognisesthattheworkrequiredtoenablesomepredictionoftheenvironmentalimpactsofashortfallwillbenotbeeasyandwillbeabestattempttoconsolidateexistingknowledge.Itwillneedtobeundertakeninconsultationwithenvironmentalwaterholdersandshouldinclude:
• Thedevelopmentofanindicator(s)ofanenvironmentalshortfallwithinthemodel.• Theundertakingofdetailedworktounderstandtheimplicationsofashortfallforthefull
rangeofcategoriesofenvironmentalwateringevents.Thiswouldincludeunderstanding,underdifferentclimatesequences,theirimpactsontheplannedoutcomeforthatenvironmentaleventandthelonger-termenvironmentaloutcomesforthesite.
ThePanelrecognisesthatthiswillbeabletobecontinuouslyimprovedoverthenextfewyearsasreal-timewateringeventsareundertakenandadaptivelymonitored.IntheviewofthePanel,boththeseareasofworkareimportantandofhighprioritybecauseuntiltheyarecompleted,itisnotpossibletoconsistentlyevaluatetheimpactsofanymanagementoptionsthatgovernmentsmaywishtoconsider.
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2.4 AssessingManagementOptionsFollowinganalysisofthecurrentandpotentialfuturerisks,governmentwillhavetomakedecisionsonwhetherit’sworthwhiletotakeactiontoreduceriskandifso,how.Therearethreetypesofpossiblemanagementoptionsthatcouldbeundertakentoalleviatetheriskoverthelongerterm(Figure1).Theseinclude:
• Structuraloptionstoincreasethecapacityofthesysteme.g.increasingthecapacityofBarmahChokeorby-passingtheBarmahChoke.Theseoptionsarelikelytobecostly,haveanumberofenvironmentalissuesassociatedwiththemandwouldrequiredecisionsonhowmuchadditionalcapacitywouldbedesirabletomeetcurrentandfuturedemand.
• Policyoptionswhichcouldinclude:o Reviewingtradelimitstoinfluencelevelsofirrigationdevelopmentandwaterusein
theRiverMurraybelowtheBarmahChokee.g.restrictingIVT,lateseasontradeoralltradefromupstreamtodownstreamoftheBarmahChoke.Dependingonhowtheywereimplemented,thesecouldhavesignificantimpactsonexistingentitlementholders,thevalueofwateronthemarketandfuturedevelopment.
o Developmentofprotocolswithenvironmentalwaterholders,includingwhereagreementsareundertakenbetweenenvironmentalwaterholdersandriveroperatorswhichreflectthelevelofrisktotheenvironmentandenableimprovedenvironmentaloutcomes.Thiscouldbeasensibleapproachbutstartstodepartfromtheprinciplethatallentitlementholdershavethesameconditionsandobligations.
o Landandwaterusecontrolsinareaswherefuturedevelopmentislikelytooccur.CurrentlytherearesalinitycontrolsinplaceinVictoriaandSAbutgiventhepaceandprospectforfuturedevelopmentintheLowerMurrayarea,governmentsmayhavetoconsiderarangeofpotentiallystrongeranddifferentcontrols.
• Operationaloptionse.g.o RelaxingkeyconstraintsalongtheRiverMurraythroughimplementingsomeofthe
proposedconstraintprojects.o Reviewmid-Murrayweirandstorageoperations.o ReviewprotocolsfortransferringwaterfromLakeHumetoLakeVictoria–thiscould
resultinearliertransfersfromLakeHume.ThiswouldreducevolumesinLakeHumeandhavesomeimpactonresourceavailabilityinsomeyearsandincreasetheriskofspillsfromLakeVictoriafromtributaryinflow.
Thelistabovegivesanideaofsomeoftheoptionsavailable.ThePanelconsidersthatwiththeconsiderationofanyoptiontherewillbeperceivedwinnersandlosers,includingjurisdictionsandentitlementholders.Therewillbemanyvariationsontheseoptionsandmultiplecombinations.Akeymessageisnoneofthemarewithoutsomeimpactandthereforetheywillhavetobeconsistentlyassessedandevaluatedandtheircomparativeimpactswellunderstood.Themodelanditsrelatedpredictionsofimpactswillbeanimportantcomponentinassistingtoidentifyapreferredsubsetofmanagementoptions.However,anyfinaldecisionbygovernmentsonamanagementsolutionwouldnotonlytakeintoaccountmodeloutcomesbutwouldhavetoalsoassessabroaderrangeofpotentialimpactse.g.potentialimpactonpriceofwater-temporaryandpermanent,potentialflow-oncommunityimpacts,effectsonBasinPlanenvironmentaloutcomes.Becausetheefforttodatehasgoneintodevelopingthemodelandthecapacitytoevaluateimpacts(stillrequiringfurtherworkasdetailedabove),thesectionoftheworkprogramdealingwiththe
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assessmentofmanagementoptionsislesswell-advanced.Oncethemodelisfullyconfiguredandtheworktopredictimpactsiscompleted,itwillbepossibletostartassessingarangeofmanagementoptions.Atthispoint,itwillbeimportantforjurisdictionstoagreeonaprioritylistofoptionsforassessment.ThisshouldnotbelefttotheMDBAalone.ThePanelconsidersthatjurisdictionswillhavetomanageanyimpactsontheirentitlementholdersandthattheywillneedtoagreeonwhatoptionstheywanttojointlyconsider.InthePanel’sview,jurisdictionsshouldundertaketodothisbyMarch2020.However,thePanelconsidersthatthereisanimmediateandurgentpriority.Currently,MDBAadvisethatthereisalowlikelihoodofadeliveryshortfallovertheremainderofthe2019-20wateryear.However,theyalsoadvisethatthereisalwaysaninherentriskarisingfromfactorslikearunofextremelyhotweather.Currently,jurisdictionsdonothavecontingencyarrangementsinplacetomanagesuchanincidentshoulditoccur.Whilstitmaynotbepossibletoagreeonexactsharingarrangements,giventhattheimpactsofeveryshortfallwillbedifferentdependingontimingandduration,itshouldbepossibletodevelopaframeworkformakingthesedecisionswhentheyoccurandagreeingonkeysteps,rolesandresponsibilitiesinimplementingandcommunicatingthem.Thisshouldalsoincludeconsiderationofenvironmentaldeliveryshortfalls.Whilstitisontheworkprogram,thistaskhasbeendelayedandisnotyetcomplete.ThePanelconsiderthistobeanurgentpriority.ThePanelalsoconsiderthattherearetwotasksthatcouldbeundertakenintheshorttermthatwouldassistintheassessmentofmanagementoptionswhenthemodelisreadyandtheworkonpredictingimpactsiscomplete.Theseare:
– RevisitpreviousworkonBarmahChokebypassoptionsandundertakeafirst-cutfeasibilityanalysistobringforwardrevisedsetofoptionsinmid-2020.
– DeterminerateofsedimentationofBarmahChokeandfeasibilityofextractiontoincreasecapacity.
2.5 ModelCapability
TheMDBAhasdevelopedalong-termdailysimulationmodeloftheRiverMurraysystemusingtheNationalHydrologicModellingPlatform(Source),knownastheSourceMurrayModel(SMM).
TosupporttheRiverMurrayCapacityandDeliveryShortfallProject,theMDBAhasconfiguredSMMtoreflectascloselyaspossibletheirrigationdevelopmentlevels,wateruserbehaviourandmanagementrulesinplacein2018/19,knownastheReferenceScenario.TheReferenceScenarioisdescribedinmoredetailinthefollowingsections.Uniquelyamongbasinmodels,theSourceMurrayModel(SMM)hasrecentlybeenenhancedtoincludekeyprocessessuchasallocation(temporary)tradeandamorecontemporaryrepresentationofenvironmentalwateruse,althoughtheseremaindifficultprocessestoreproduceclosely.
2.5.1 Initialoutcomes
Short-termdeliveryshortfallsModellingsuggeststhatveryminordeliveryshortfallsareoccurring,butithasnotbeenpossibleatthisearlystagetoformaconclusionofanychangetothefrequencyofshort-termdeliveryshortfalls.
Historicallythepossibilityofshort-termdeliveryshortfallsinhighdemandperiodshasbeenanon-goingconcernalthoughtheoccurrenceofactualshortfallshasnotbeenfrequent.Thishaslargelybeenduetoactivemanagementoforders,thedrawdownofweirpoolsasatemporarymeasureorthetimelyoccurrenceofrainfallevents.
Withinseasonsystemshortfalls
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TherequirementtohaveminimumoperatinglevelinLakeVictoriaattheendofthefollowingMaytosecureSouthAustralia’sentitlementflowforthefollowingseasonisakeydriverofRiverMurrayoperations.ThemodellingisshowingthatmeetingtheserequirementsoccursslightlylessoftenintheReferenceScenariothantheBDLscenario,althoughthereisnosignificantincreaseintransfersfromHume–LakeVictoria.Thisissueislikelytobeincreasinglyimportantunderdryconditions,particularlywhenadditionalsuppliescannotbecalleduponfromtheMenindeeLakesstorages.
2.5.2 Limitations
NotwithstandingthesignificantadvancesthathavebeenmadeinthedevelopmentoftheSMM,itisimportanttokeepinmindthatthisisalong-termplanningmodelthatrunsovera125yearperiod,andcannotbeexpectedtocapturethefullrangeofvariabilityinthebehaviourofwaterusers(consumptiveandenvironmental)andtheriversystem,particularlyduringtheextremesinwetanddryconditions.Thismeansthattheselong-termplanningmodelsarenotwellsuitedtoidentifyingtransientdeliveryshortfallsduringthesummermonths.
Whilstitisnotedthatthemodelsimulatesasimilarlackofdeliveryshortfallstothatobservedintherecentpast,itishardtojudgewhetherthemodel’sresponsetochangesinconditionsundersomeoftheintendedfuturescenarioswillberobust.
AkeyprocesswithinSMMistherepresentationofenvironmentalwatering,withtheenvironmentbeingoneofthelargestentitlementholdersintheSouthernConnectedSystem.However,environmentaldemandsarestillevolving,andthemodelhasarelativelysimplerepresentationofhowwaterrecoveredundertheBasinPlanisused.
Thebehaviouroftheallocation(temporary)trademarketisdynamic,stillevolving,andinfluencedbyeconomicdriversthatarenotsimulatedinhydrologicmodels.ThemarketisalsoincreasinglyactiveacrosstheSouthernConnectedSystem,includingtheGoulburnandMurrumbidgeevalleysthataremodelledseparatelytoSMM.Accordingly,theinitialrepresentationoftradebehaviourinSMMhasrequiredsomesimplificationstobemade,anditisunderstandablydifficultforthemodeltocloselyreproduceobservedtradebehaviouracrossthebroadersouthernconnectedsystem.
Inter-valleytradeandtheoperationofendofvalleyaccountsisanimportantinfluenceontheriskofdeliveryandsystemshortfalls,andfurtherworkisrecommendedbyboththeMDBAandtherelevantbasinstatestoimproverepresentationofthisinthemodel.
2.5.3 Areasforimprovement
AhighpriorityimprovementinSMMforthisprojectistherepresentationofenvironmentalwateringdemandsacrossthesystem,andtheabilitytoindicatewhenenvironmentalwaterordersarenotabletobemet.EnvironmentaldemandsforwaterrecoveredundertheBasinPlanarecurrentlyrepresentedatafewkeylocationssuchasdownstreamofYarrawongaWeir.However,forayearsuchas2018/19,environmentalwaterorderswereunabletobemetassystemrequirementstorefillLakeVictoriausedtheavailablechannelcapacitythroughtheBarmahChoke.Inthiscircumstance,asimpleflowmetricatYarrawongaWeirwouldbemet,eventhoughtheintendedenvironmentaldeliverytargetsfurtherdownstreamwerenotmetinpractice.
Theeventof2018/19alsosuggeststhatashortfallinmeetingenvironmentaldemandsinthewinter/springcouldhavetheeffectofincreasingenvironmentaldemandsduringthesummermonths,whichwouldincreasetheriskofdeliveryshortfalls.Thismeansthatrepresentingtheeffectsofanenvironmentaldemandshortfallinthemodelisalsoconsideredaprioritymodelimprovement.
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Withtheincreasingrelianceontemporarytrade,includinginter-valleytrade,tosupporttheexpandinghorticulturaldevelopmentsinthemidMurray,themodel’sabilitytosimulatesuchtradeisbecomingincreasinglyimportant.ModelimprovementscouldincluderepresentationofthetradelimitationsacrosstheBarmahChoke,andareviewofassumedinter-valleytradevolumesunderarangeofcircumstancesthatextendbeyondthoseobservedin2017/18and2018/19.
Asisthecaseforlong-termplanningmodelsacrossthebasin,thereisalwaysarangeofimprovementsthatcan,andshould,bepursued.Manyoftheseimprovementsarenotlikelytobeindividuallysignificanttothemodel’sabilitytosimulatedeliveryandsystemshortfalls,buttherearesomethatcouldbepursuedintheshorttermtoimproveconfidenceinthemodel.Theseincludeamorecontemporaryrepresentationof:Victorianallocationpolicies,modelledinflowsfromtheGoulburnandMurrumbidgeevalleys,LakeVictoriaoperatinglevels,andrivertransmissionlossesintheBarmahChokeareaandtheinterimoperationalmeasuresintheLowerGoulburnrecentlyintroducedbyVictoria.
2.5.4 Modelling-Conclusions
Thedifficultiesincloselyrepresentingkeycurrentprocesses,suchastradeandenvironmentalwateruse,inlong-termmodellingmeansitremainsdifficultforlong-termmodellingtobeabletocloselysimulateshort-termoperationalcircumstancessuchasdeliveryshortfallsthatmightlastonlyafewweeks.Assuch,itisdifficulttoquantifytheabsoluteriskofshortfallsoccurringbasedonthemodelresults.
ThelargerscaledriversforsystemshortfallsatLakeVictoriatendtooperateattheseasonalscale,suchasinflows,wateravailablefromMenindeeLakes,rivertransmissionlosses,andirrigationdemands.ThereisgreaterconfidencethatthesearebeingsimulatedrobustlyandthatSMMismorecapableofidentifyingthenatureandextentofsystemshortfallsintheRiverMurray.
ThevalueofmodelssuchasSMMisthattheycanbeusedtoundertakeacomparativeanalysisbetweendifferentmodelscenariostotestthesensitivityofsimulatedshortfallstovariousriskfactors,suchasplausiblealternateclimatesequencesordifferentoperatingrules,andtotestpotentialmitigationmeasuressuchaspolicychangesorinfrastructureoptions.TheMDBAhavealreadycomparedtheresultsoftheReferenceScenariototheBDLScenariothatrepresents2009conditions,whichsuggeststhatthepotentialfordeliveryandsystemshortfallshasnotworsenedsignificantly.
Theuseofoperationalcasestudiesmayassistinfurtherunderstandingthepotentialfordeliveryshortfalls.Casestudiesaremoreapplicabletoexaminingindividualyearsthanlong-termrisk.
3 Timelines,ReviewandResourcingTheCapacityandDeliveryShortfallProjectiscurrentlyonlyan18monthprogramofwork.ThePanelconsidersthat,givenitscurrentstatusandtheremainingworktobeundertaken,itishighlyunlikelyitcouldbecompletedwithinthattimeperiodandthatattemptingtodosowillcompromisethequalityofthework.
Finding3-thePanelconsidersthatthemodelisappropriateforcomparativeanalysisofscenariostodeterminesensitivitytoriskfactors.Itisnotappropriatetodetermineabsoluterisk.
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Webelievetheprojectneedstobeundertakenovera2-3yearperiodtoenablegovernmentstomakeconsidereddecisionswithhighqualityinformationthatiscredibletokeystakeholders.Wealsoconsiderthattheworkdonetodateshowsthat,whilstthisisaseriouslong-termissueforgovernments,thereisnoneedforurgentactionwithinthenext18monthsotherthanthedevelopmentofanagreedcontingencyframework.ThePanelconsidersthatextendingthetimeframeoftheprojectwillenable:
• Continuousupdatingofcriticaldatausedinthemodel,including-o furthergroundtruthingofdatasoastoincorporaterefinementsovertime,suchas
variationsinirrigatorbehaviourandmajordifferencesinsoiltype.Thisisaresourceintensiveexercisebutessentialtogiveconfidenceandtransparencytothemodelledmanagementofthesystemandamoredefiniteframeworkonwhichtobuildfutureadvances.
o improvementsinenvironmentaldemandplanningandknowledgeofenvironmentaloutcomesofwateringevents.
o decisionsonSDLAMprojectsastheyaremadebygovernments.• ImprovedintegrationwithotherworkcurrentlyinprogresswithintheMDBAsuchasthe
PPM(PrerequisitePolicyMeasures)implementationandthesocio-economicstudybeingcarriedoutatthepresenttime.
• IncorporatingrelevantoutcomesofthecurrentACCwatermarketreviewduetobehandeddownattheendof2020whichislikelytomakesuggestionsorrecommendationswhichcouldinfluencethetimingandvolumesoftradedwater.
Theprojectworkplanwillneedtoaccommodateallthisnewinformationandbeadaptedasitgeneratesresultsfromthemodelledscenariosandplannedstudies.Giventhis,thePanelconsidersthatitshouldbereviewedevery6monthstoensurethatnewinformationhasbeenincluded,thatplannedactivitiesremainrelevant,andtoreviewprioritiesandidentifyanyemerginggaps.Inrelationtoresourcing,thePanelconsidersthatthecurrentlevelofmodellingcapabilitybothwithintheMDBAandjurisdictionsisahighriskfortheproject.Thereisashortageofskilledandexperiencedmodellers-experiencetellsusthatsuchpeopleneedtimetogainarealunderstandingoftheirsubjectandtheyneedsecureandstableemploymenttoachievethis.Thereisalsoakeyriskthatwiththeworseningofthecurrentdrought,jurisdictionalstaffwillberedeployedtodealwiththisimmediatepriorityissue.Whilstthisisunderstandable,itwilldelaykeyelementsofthisproject.Asdiscussedinthesectionbelow,thisprojectcannotbeundertakenbytheMDBAalone–italsorequiressignificantresourcesfromjurisdictions.
4 GovernanceandCommunicationAsoutlinedinthesectionsabove,thePanelconsiderstheCapacityandDeliveryShortfallProjecttoanimportantprojectthatshouldbeahighpriorityfortheMDBjointgovernmentventure.Webelievethattheprojectgovernanceshouldreflectbothitssignificanceandthefactthatitisasharedproblemforjurisdictionswhichwillrequiretrustandgoodwilltoresolve.TheprojectneedstobeownedandmanagedbythejurisdictionswiththeMDBAactingasacoordinator/facilitatorandundertakingagreedactivitiesonthejurisdictions’behalf.Currently,theprojectismanagedbytheCapacityPolicyWorkingGroup(CPWG).ThePanelhasreviewedtheirToRandfoundthemtobeappropriate.However,jurisdictionsneedtoensurethattheirrepresentatives:
• havetherightmixofskills
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• havetheauthoritytomakeappropriatedecisionsonbehalfofthejurisdiction• havethetimeavailabletoproperlydevotetotheproject• areabletoactinaccordancewiththeToR.
TheCPWGshouldreporttoBOCregularlyontheprojectandbeheldaccountablebyBOCforitsprogress.Inrelationtocommunication,theworkprogramrequiresthedevelopmentofacommunicationstrategyin2020buttheonlyworktodatehasbeenthepreparationofaverypreliminarydraftengagementplan.ThePanelnotesthattherearearangeofstakeholdershighlyconcernedaboutthisissue.Therefore,communicationneedstobeplannedcarefullywithaviewtoprovidingstakeholdersandcommunitieswiththebestavailableinformationonthecurrentunderstandingofsystemanddeliveryshortfallriskandaclearpathwayforinputintodecisionsonmanagementoptions.ThePanelconsidersthatthedevelopmentofaproactivecommunicationstrategyshouldbeapriorityfortheCPWG.Thestrategyshouldinclude:
• Keymessagesandcommunicationoutputs.• ClearunderstandingofrolesandresponsibilitiesbetweenthejurisdictionsandtheMDBA
outliningclearlywhotalksonwhattowhomandwhen.• Agreedprocessandpathwayforstakeholderengagementeithercollectivelyorwithin
individualjurisdictionsbutcoordinatedbetweenthem.ThePanelconsidersthatensuringthatthejurisdictionsandtheMDBAspeakwithonevoiceandcommonmessagesonthisissueiscritical.Itisimportanttorecognisethatmanyirrigatorsnowholdaportfolioofwaterentitlementstomeettheirbusinessneedswithwaterproductsfromallthejurisdictions.Theyarenowmoreinterestedincollectiveapproachesandthecombinedimpactsofjurisdictionalpoliciesandlessinthesingleactionsofjurisdictions.Aproactivestrategyisrequiredbecauseinrecenttimes,intheabsenceofasharedstrategy,thedefaulthasbeentoprovidetheminimumlevelofinformationrequiredtodealwithanissueafterithasbecomeasignificantcommunityproblem.Thissimplyincreasesmistrustwithinthecommunityandprovidestheopportunityformisinformationtotakehold.ThePanelsuggeststhattheMinisterialCouncilcouldgiveconsiderationtoaslightlymoreformalisedprocessthanoriginallyplanned.AshortpaperoutliningfindingstodateandtherangeofmanagementoptionsunderconsiderationcouldbereleasedinMarch2020withstakeholdersabletomakesubmissionsiftheywished.Thiswouldprovidetheopportunitytoputfactualinformationonthecurrentriskandthedriversofshortfallriskintothepublicdomain(i.e.todispelanymyths)andenablestakeholderstorecordtheirviewsonpossiblemanagementoptionswhichcouldassistinprioritisingthoseforfurtheranalysis.
5 FindingsandRecommendationsThePanelmadethreefindingsinrelationtotheworkprogramandtheunderpinningmodelwhichareoutlinedinthesectionsabove.Inaddition,wemakethefollowingrecommendationsrelatingtotheworkprogramUnderstandingthecurrentsystem(Section2.1)
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1. Incorporatedetailedplantingandirrigation-methoddatafromSouthAustralia(whichisreadilyavailable)intotheSunRISEreportassoonaspracticabletoensurethattheMDBAisusingthebestavailablereferencedatainmanagingtheriversystem.
2. RequestVictoriaandNewSouthWalestoinvestigatethesignificanceofenvironmental
issuesintheLowerGoulburnandMurrumbidgeeRiversandtheirimplicationsforsystemcapacity–thisincludesidentifyingpotentialsummer-autumnflowregimesthatcouldminimiseenvironmentaldamagewhilstfacilitatinginter-valleytransfersintheLowerGoulburnRiverandunderstandingwhetherIVTsarecausingenvironmentaldamageintheLowerMurrumbidgee.
Understandingriskunderfuturescenarios(Section2.2)
3. Undertakeasapriority,twoadditionalfuturemodellingscenarios:a. Examiningtheimpactsofclimatechangeincludingbothinflowsandincreased
temperature.b. Examiningtheimpactofconstraintrelaxationproposalsthatarecurrentlyunder
activeconsiderationbygovernmentsUnderstandingimplicationsforentitlementholders(Section2.3)
4. Undertakedetailedworkonimpactsanddurationofawaterdeficitatdifferentpointsinthegrowingseasonforavarietyofcropstakingintoconsiderationvariationsinsoiltypeacrossthemajorriverreaches.
5. Developindicatorsofenvironmentaldeliveryshortfalls.
6. Undertakedetailedworkinconsultationwithenvironmentalwaterholdersto
understandtheimplicationsofshortfallsforarangeofcategoriesofenvironmentalwateringeventsunderdifferentclimatesequencestounderstandtheirimpactsonenvironmentaloutcomes.
Assessingmanagementoptions(Section2.4)
7. Asanimmediatepriority,jurisdictionsshoulddevelopacontingencyframeworkformakingdecisionsonhowtheywillmanageshortfallswhentheyoccurandagreeonkeysteps,rolesandresponsibilitiesinimplementingandcommunicatingthesedecisions.Thisshouldalsoincludeconsiderationofenvironmentaldeliveryshortfalls.
8. RevisitpreviousworkonBarmahChokebypassoptionsandundertakeafirst-cut
feasibilityanalysistobringforwardrevisedsetofoptionsinmid-2020.
9. DeterminetherateofsedimentationofBarmahChokeandfeasibilityofextractiontoincreasecapacity.
ModelCapability(Section2.5)
10. Asahighpriority,improvetherepresentationofenvironmentalwateringdemandsacrossthesystem,andtheabilitytoindicatewhenenvironmentalwaterordersarenotabletobemet.
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11. Undertakeanumberofgeneralmodelimprovementsincludingamorecontemporaryrepresentationof:Victorianallocationpolicies,modelledinflowsfromtheGoulburnandMurrumbidgeevalleys,LakeVictoriaoperatinglevels,rivertransmissionlossesintheBarmahChokeareaandtheinterimoperationalmeasuresintheLowerGoulburnrecentlyintroducedbyVictoria.
12. Reviewpotentialforoperationalanalysistoinformthepotentialinterpretationof
modelleddeliveryshortfalls.Timelines,reviewandresourcing(Section3)
13. ExtendthetimelinefortheprojectandplanitoveraperiodtillJune2021.
14. Includeregular6-9monthlyreviewsoftheprojectoutputsandplannedactivities.
15. MaintainatleastcurrentlevelsofresourcingwithinMDBAandjurisdictions.GovernanceandCommunication(Section4)
16. EnsurethatjurisdictionalrepresentativesontheCPWGhavetheskills,authorityandtimeavailabletoproperlymanagetheproject.
17. Asahighpriority,developasharedproactivecommunicationstrategyincludingkey
messages,clearrolesandresponsibilitiesforcommunicatingwithstakeholdersandaclearpathwayforstakeholderstoengage.
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Appendix A
Terms of Reference: Independent Panel for Capacity Project Review
OfficelocationsAdelaide,Albury-Wodonga,Canberra,Goondiwindi,Toowoomba
mdba.gov.au 1800230067 [email protected]
24
Independent Panel for Capacity Project Review TERMS OF REFERENCE
Establishment1. At the Ministerial Council meeting held on 4 August 2019, it was agreed to
appoint an independent panel of experts to peer review the River Murray Capacity and Delivery Shortfall Project.
2. The panel members and terms of reference are to be agreed by BOC members for the Commonwealth, NSW, ACT, Victoria and South Australia.
PrimaryObjectives3. Provide independent advice and peer review to the joint governments regarding
the Capacity and Delivery Shortfall Project (the Project) and whether it is addressing the right tasks/work to the appropriate standard and timeframes.
RoleofthePanel4. To achieve its primary objective the Panel will be responsible for:
a. Providing independent advice on the Capacity and Delivery Shortfall Project work plan regarding scope, timeframes, resources and risk management.
b. Peer review of technical work and policy development to make sure it is on track and fit for purpose and to provide advice to governments and MDBA on options for the future management of shortfall risk. This includes providing advice on:
• the modelling approach, considering if the modelling is addressing the right questions/scenarios and whether the proposed approach is sound
• adequacy of data collected and analysed for this project
• adequacy of analyses and interpretation of collected data and modelling results
• adequacy of existing and proposed policy development to address the issues around deliverability of all water entitlements
5. In undertaking the assessment the Panel may engage and seek advice from other technical experts in relevant fields.
Murray-DarlingBasinAuthority
OfficelocationsAdelaide,Albury-Wodonga,Canberra,Goondiwindi,Toowoomba
mdba.gov.au 1800230067 [email protected]
25
6. The operational issues for the 2019/20 water year will be managed through existing mechanisms specifically through WLWG and operational practice at MDBA and do not need to be reported on by the Panel.
Tenure7. The Panel will report to the next Ministerial Council meeting, nominally December
2019.
8. The Ministerial Council may seek further advice from the panel. In this case, the tenure, scope and deliverables of the Panel will be reviewed by BOC following the Ministerial Council meeting.
Deliverables/Milestones9. Expected project deliverables and timeframes are provided in 10. Table 1.
Table1:PanelDeliverablesandTimeframes
Deliverable2 Timeframe1
1. Initial report providing advice to CPWG on the scope of the Capacity and Delivery Shortfall Project including work plan and timeframes for project delivery.
Mid Oct 2019
2. Draft Ministerial Council report to BOC on the review of technical work and policy development of the project including advice on: • the modelling approach, considering if the modelling is addressing the
right questions/scenarios and whether the proposed approach is sound • adequacy of data collected and analysed for this project • adequacy of analyses and interpretation of collected data and modelling
results • adequacy of existing and proposed policy development to address the
issues around deliverability of all water entitlements • any other matters requested by the BOC and/or CPWG that fall within the
terms of reference
For Nov. BOC meeting
3. Report to Ministerial Council providing advice on the review of technical work and policy development of the project.
For Dec. MinCo meeting
1 Timeframes are subject to review, pending timing of budget approval and procurement process 2 If the Panel is extended, additional deliverables will be developed at that time.
Murray-DarlingBasinAuthority
OfficelocationsAdelaide,Albury-Wodonga,Canberra,Goondiwindi,Toowoomba
mdba.gov.au 1800230067 [email protected]
26
Governancestructure11. The Panel shall report directly to the Ministerial Council through a written report
and presentation by the chair of the Panel.
12. The Panel will liaise with the CPWG and BOC regarding the draft report to the Ministerial Council.
Membership13. The Panel will consist of a chair and up to three additional independent experts
appointed by BOC, who will collectively bring the following skills:
a. Extensive knowledge and administrative experience in water resource management and policy development in the River Murray System.
b. Extensive knowledge of River Murray operations and hydrological processes, and their representation within river system planning models.
c. Experience in providing strategic direction to water resource management to address policy issues
d. Extensive knowledge of socio-economic and/or environmental issues associated with water management in the Southern Connected system
14. As approved by BOC the members of the panel from each group are as follows:
• Dr Jane Doolan (Chair) • Dianne Davidson • David Harriss • Dr Terry Hillman • Paul Simpson • Graeme Turner
BudgetandSupport15. The Panel has no independent budget.
16. The Panel may make requests through MDBA for funding additional expert advice, which would have to go through the existing budgetary processes of the Joint Governments.
17. In undertaking the assessment, the Panel shall liaise with the CPWG and may seek additional information from any relevant working groups established by the MDBA and jurisdictional governments.
18. MDBA will provide contractual and secretarial support.
Appendix B
Capacity and Delivery Shortfall Project Work Plan