OCEANS AND ATMOSPHERE

Regional Consultation on Climate Services for Indian Ocean Islands Mauritius, 14-16 March, 2016

INDARE and Pacific/Australian perspective

Geoff Gooley & Kevin Hennessy, CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Australia Omar Baddour et al, Data Management Applications Div, WMO, Switzerland

– Outcomes & objectives of this regional consultation/5 key pillars of the GFCS

– Emerging/expanding climate services ‘user’ landscape, with emphasis on provision of tailored data, information, guidance/knowledge products and capacity development

• The climate ‘knowledge/resilience/services’ value chain: path to impact

• ‘next’ users = other researchers/’end’ users = policy makers, planners and associated decision-makers at regional, national/sectoral and sub-national/community scale

– Indian Ocean (INDARE), Pacific SIDS (PCCSP/PACCSAP) & Australia (ACCSP/NRM/ESCC)

• Developed/developing country perspective - more similarities than differences!!

• Applying climate science knowledge: ‘science (IPCC WG1) informing services (GFCS)’

• Multiple spatial and temporal scales with emphasis on multi-decadal projections and future climate scenarios

– Strategic drivers, gaps & needs, learnings and reflections on new directions

• Staged, multi-lateral, coordinated, ‘regional’ approach based on key collaborative partnerships

• Outcome focussed with tangible on-ground impacts targeted at user needs

– Otherwise perhaps a ‘pre-cautionary’ tale from the coal face (….we need more success stories of science-based evidence informing decision-making in the CCA/DRM policy and planning space!!??)

• So best to get it right from the outset!!

Context/Overview

Indian Ocean Data Rescue (INDARE) initiative • INDARE was launched at the Occasion of an international Workshop in Maputo,

Mozambique, 21-24 April 2014

o Partner countries (16 + up to 10 new entrants across Indian Ocean RIM/SIDS (Regions I & II), with linkages also to western tropical Pacific (Region V)

o WMO coordination & oversight; NMS & RCCs key stakeholders

o Partner agencies – IOC, RCCs (ICPAC, SADC CDC), INCOIS, UKMO, Meteo-France, KNMI, CSIRO/BOM, others TBC

o Other strategic linkages/opportunities for alignment at institution/program/project level: UNDP, RIMES, ICAD/ACRE/CC/ET-DARE/IEDRO/various other DARE projects, ACMAD, ETCCDI, PREPARED, SASSCAL, MESA, IIOE-2, WIO-LME-SAP, etc

• A steering Committee was formed with membership of all countries involved:

o Geneva, 30 Sep – 2 Oct 2014

o Mauritius 19-20 Oct 2015

• Implementation Plan agreed with Annual Workplans:

o Phase 1 underway

o Phase 2 – initial planning (including this event)

INDARE Implementation Plan/Strategic ToR A- Vision Work and participate towards enhanced and accelerated availability of accurate, high-quality historical long-term weather data and metadata over land and sea in the Indian ocean rim countries and islands; from the past to the present to generate reliable climate instrumental time series and historical reanalysis that will both improve the prediction and projection of climate extremes, and provide useful information and services for decision making in a timely manner

B- Long term Goals The INdian Ocean DAta REscue (INDARE) activities will help to locate existing dispersed data, provide them to the originating countries, enhance and safeguard climate records to prevent them from being lost, and to convert historical long-term climate records into accessible and digitized climate datasets to support weather and climate analyses, reanalyzes, climate adaptation and to inform socioeconomic sectors. It also seek to assist in implementing climate data modernization projects in the countries based on WMO standards and modern specifications

INDARE Implementation Plan/Strategic ToR A- Expected Outcomes • Capacity development – human and infrastructure • Climate database modernization • Climate information generation – climate change adaptation & climate risk

management • Supporting GFCS implementation B- Activities • Data Rescue (DARE) and digitization/INDARE web portal

o Activity areas – INDARE Portal, DARE projects, support tools, collaboration & networking, communication products & resource mobilisation

• Climate Data Management Systems (CDMS) • Climate Assessment & Climate Information Services • Capacity Development & Coordination C- Timelines • Short-Med term (now/2-3 yrs) – Phase 1 • Med-long term ( > 2-3yrs) – Phase 2 & beyond?

INDARE IMPLEMENTATION PLAN

STEERING COMMITTEE

YR1 YR2 YR3 YR.n

W O R

K P L

A N S

WG-1

Best Practices and

CapacityDevelop

ment

WG-2

INDARE

Infrastructure

WG-3

International

Collaboration &

Networking

WG-4

Communication and

Resource

Mobilization

WG1

Best Practices and

Capacity

Development

WG2

INDARE

Infrastructure

WG3

International

Collaboration and

Networking

WG4

Communication and

Resource

Mobilisation

Bangladesh,

Mozambique,

Myanmar (TBC)

Indonesia,

La Réunion

Pakistan , Co-lead

Sri-Lanka , Co-lead

South Afrcia ( TBC)

India,

Indonesia, lead

Pakistan

Mauritius, co-lead

ICPAC (TBC)

Australia , Co lead

Madagascar

Maldives Co-lead

Mozambique

Tanzania

South Africa

IOC, Co-lead

Kenya, Co-lead

Comores ( TBC)

India

Seychelles

Activity Deliverable Who Status

Activity 1.

Countries´ nominations

for the WGs

Constitution of 4

WGs

WMO

Secretariat,

INDARE Chair

and Co-Chair

Completed

Activity 2.

Meeting of WG-2, July

2015

Assessment of the

feasibility of

implementing an

INDARE web portal

Recommendations

for its development

and hosting

WG-2, WMO

Secretariat,

MEDARE,

ACRE ICA&D

Completed

Development of the

INDARE web portal

Development of the

INDARE web portal

prototype

Near completion

Activity 3.

Data Rescue Project

Proposals

DARE Project

Compendium

WMO

Secretariat,

INDARE

members

Bangladesh,

Madagascar,

Kenya Sri-Lanka

proposals received.

Activity 4.

Meeting of WG-1

Tools and software to be

made available for

undertaking DARE

Recommendation

s on useful tools

and software

Recommendation

s on

Demonstration

projects

WG-1, WMO

Secrétariat,

ET-DARE, ET-

CDMS, ICA&D,

ET-CCDI

Workshop on

Capacity

Development is

planned in

November 2015

( ETCCDI tools will

be promoted and

used)

Activity 5.

International

Collaboration and

Networking

Recommendations

on international

projects and

initiatives that

INDARE will be

associated with

WG-3,

International

Experts

Two online

meetings were held.

Recommendations

will be presented at

the INDARE-SC2

meeting

Activity 6.

Meeting of WG-4

Strategy for

communication and

resource mobilization

Development of

communication

material (poster,

leaflet, brochure)

Identification of

funding sources

WG-4, WMO

Secretariat,

INDARE Chair

and Co-Chair

Regional Approach to Climate Science Program Delivery in the Pacific

Geoff Gooley …...on behalf of PACCSAP Science Program (CSIRO, Bureau of Meteorology and collaborative partners in Australia & the Pacific)

PCCSP/PACCSAP Science

• Pacific Climate Change Science Program (PCCSP)

− $20m over 2.5 yrs (2008/09-2010/11)

• Pacific – Australia Climate Change Science & Adaptation Planning (PACCSAP) Science Program

− $20m over 2.5 yrs (2011/12-2013/14)

• Funded & administered by Australian Government:

− DFAT & Dept of Environment

• Delivered by Centre for Australian Weather & Climate Research (CAWCR):

− partnership between CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology

• Other Australian agencies: Geoscience Australia, ARC Centre of Excellence (CoE) for Climate System Science

• 15 diverse partner countries & key regional organisations and universities incl. SPREP, SPC, USP, Red Cross and GIZ

PACCSAP Science – strategic drivers

• PACCSAP – two components:

• Adaptation Component (Dept of the Environment)

• Science Component (CSIRO & BOM)

• PACCSAP goal & objective:

• PICs developed capacity to monitor & adapt to changing natural environment, & enhanced resilience to impacts of CC

• Emphasis on PIC scientists, decision-makers & planners to apply info/tools & develop in-country responses

• PACCSAP Science component objective:

• Primary: Improve scientific understanding of climate change in the Pacific

• Together with DotE:

– Increased awareness of climate science, impacts and adaptation options

– Better adaptation planning to build resilience to climate change impacts

PACCSAP Science & Services Program - Scope

• New science

– Seasonal predictions & climate data (n.b. data rescue, digitisation & CliDE CDMS)

– Large-scale climate features & variability

– Regionally specific projections & extreme events

– Ocean processes

• Tools development & technical support

– Pacific Climate Futures

– CliDE

– Datasets & portals

• Communication products

– Technical report & country brochures

– Summary report

– Journal papers

– Animations

– Fact sheets

– Training materials

• Capacity development − Mentoring & attachments

− Technical training

− Workshops, conferences, symposia

− Networking & collaboration

− Science outreach, support & advice

New science products: Technical

report (2014)

• On-line publication http://www.pacificclimatechangescience.org

• Climate variability, extremes and change in the western tropical Pacific: new science and updated country reports......(BOM & CSIRO, 2014)

• > 45 peer-reviewed journal papers (+ PCCSP)

• Technical report, country specific (national climatology) chapters (> 500 pages): o Climate summary

– Temperature, rainfall, drought, tropical cyclones, sea level, ocean acidification & coral bleaching

– Mean and extreme conditions o Data availability o Seasonal cycles o Observed trends o Climate projections (CMIP5)

• Updated country brochures (2015) for 14 PICs + Timor-Leste • New science based on Technical Report 2014 – Updated country

reports/chapters • Succinct, user-friendly/non-technical summary (English language)

• On-line publication (http://www.pacificclimatechangescience.org)

New science products – Country Brochures (2015)

• Climate in the Pacific: A Regional Summary of New Science and Management Tools (CSIRO, BoM & SPREP, 2015)

o Plain language report:... “telling the story of the science”...

o Targeted at non-technical audience in the Pacific, incl: – Sectoral policy makers, planners & associated decision-makers

– National/sub-national to community level

o Regional context but with partner PIC perspectives: – Understanding changing climate in the Pacific

– Large-scale climate features

– Temperature, rainfall, oceans, tropical cyclones

– Climate science-based management tools

– About the science – climate data, modelling, projections & RCPs, uncertainty, confidence, downscaling

o On-line publication (http://www.pacificclimatechangescience.org)

New science/new products – Summary Report (2015)

Climate in the Pacific: A Regional Summary of New

Science and Management Tools (2015)

• CliDE is now installed and training provided to met services in 14 Pacific Island Countries plus East Timor

− now used operationally for data storage and management − Visualisation/applications (CLEWS) through CliDEsc (NIWA).

CliDE: Climate Data for the Environment

Martin et al (2014) Meteorol. Appl. DOI: 10.1002/met.1461

Climate data, tropical cyclone data and

seasonal prediction of climate extremes portals

• Important scientific and technological results have been obtained, particularly in the development of web-based information tools to provide climate data and climatic extremes forecasts in the Pacific and the Australian regions.

• Seasonal prediction portals

• POAMA dynamical modelling based

• Sea level anomalies

• Tropical cyclones

• Coral bleaching

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/pacific/projects.shtml

Pacific Climate Futures V2.0

• Web-based tool for accessing national climate projections

• Peer-reviewed GCM outputs aligned with IPCC assessments/emissions scenarios (CMIP 3 & CMIP5); with confidence ratings to manage uncertainty

• Climate model evaluation, multiple climate variables, downscaled datasets (50km grid), projections ‘builder’ (worst/best/max consensus cases) and applications-ready data sets for climate risk/impact assessments

• Online training, hot-desk support

Climate animations

• Climate Crab (regional) & Klaod Nasara

• Resource kits

• Climate science-based training module & associated materials, including documented ‘manual’ & ppt presentations:

• Country specific presentations (14 x PICs + Timor-Leste)

– Tailored for NMSs

• Regional Pacific current/future climate

• Understanding climate projections

• Understanding climate variability and change

– Tailored for more general use

• ppt presentation templates to facilitate ‘small group’ discussions

– Tailored for more general use

New science/new products – Training materials (2015)

New science/new products – Fact Sheets (2015)

Fact Sheets (http://www.pacificclimatechangescience.org): • Climate variability & change • Large-scale climate processes • Climate extremes • Sea-level rise • Ocean acidification

Capacity Development

• CliDe training (PCCSP & PACCSAP)

• Data rescue & digitisation

• Data homogenisation

• Analysis & reporting

• Pacific Advanced Climate (PAdClim) training, Melb, 2012

• Climate Science Symposium & Technical Training, Honiara, 2013

• Pacific Climate Futures training (PCCSP & PACCSAP)

• Australian CoE for Climate Systems Science Winter School 2012 – 2014

• CSIRO/BOM - NMS science mentoring & attachments (PACCSAP)

• Climate extremes workshop, Noumea 2012

• Timor-Leste capacity development mission, May 2013

• USP PACE-SD Pacific Climate Leaders Program

• Climate science forum, Suva, Jan 2013

• Dynamical downscaling training, Suva, Dec 2013

Key Pacific (PCCSP/PACCSAP) learnings for INDARE…??

• Data rescue/digitisation/homogenisation/analysis is start of the knowledge value chain

• Data security and data sharing are both critical and compatible strategic requirements

• Portal development, management & use complemented by guidance materials, capacity development and technical support

• Climate Information Services (Data to knowledge to impact)

• GFCS Framework - Today’s climate science is tomorrow’s climate service

• Multiple (weather to climate) timescales; multi-disciplinary; multi-sectoral

• Science-based evidence informing decision-making (CCA & DRM)

• Stakeholder (Next/End User) Engagement & Outreach (Comm’s & Knowledge Brokering)

• Networking & collaboration for leveraging and learning; partnerships are the key!!

• Build local capacity, NMSs and regional org’s key focus, build/maintain regional networks

• Regional, multi-lateral approach, national/sub-national impact

• Strategic Planning (staged) for Sustainable Long-Term Outcomes

• Measure & report TBL impact as part of long term partnerships with donors

• Demonstration-style case studies & success stories - Pacific met services!!

INDARE-WG3 : Recommendations To progress INDARE Implementation Plan beyond short-medium term objectives, to

achieve sustainable, strategic, climate resilient outcomes for partner countries:

a) A collaborative, regional programming approach aligned with GFCS implementation

for supporting INDARE initiative and development of CIS knowledge and capacity

more broadly at national/sub-national scale within (western) Indian Ocean, and

b) A possible development of a series of staged, joint GCF funding proposals (Full

and/or Readiness) to be led/coordinated by agreed accredited implementation entity

(WMO?) with support from multi-lateral consortium of potential national regional and

international ‘execution’ partners, with emphasis on:

1. (Readiness?) initial stakeholder engagement, strategic planning and analysis of

CIS and associated capacity gaps and needs

2. (Full – Stage I?) Support the implementation of identified projects to improve

INDARE partner country capabilities in rescuing and managing climate records

with the required quality to meet practical climate risk management and

adaptation needs of key stakeholders including policy-makers, planners and

associated decision-makers

3. (Full – Stage II) Support further development and implementation of the GFCS

‘climate information services’ value change/realise path-to-impact

Thank you

For further information

geoff.gooley@csiro.au

Phone: +61 3 9239 4400

www.pacificclimatechangescience.org

www.Terranova.org.au

www.cosspac.bom.gov.au

www.pacificclimatechange.net

www.climatechangeinaustralia.com

www.cawcr.gov.au

www.indare.net under construction!!