Increasing Water Supplier Leverage on Land Use

John D. WienerUniversity of Colorado Institute of Behavioral Science

Modification of Presentation to Universities Council on Water Resources19 June 2014, Boston

john.wiener@Colorado.eduwww.colorado.edu/ibs/eb/wiener

Note: references and some additional discussion are provided in “speaker’s notes” sections.

Disclaimer! – jumpy talk to take advantage…• Extraordinary conference – and the USDA Ag track is excellent too! ALREADY:

• Thanks, Dr Honeycutt! -- 70% of Agricultural Land in the US is private, so changes, adaptation, resilience will be voluntary! (See also NRC 2010)

• Thanks, Dr. Lettenmaier and Dr. Hirsch – Planning in Uncertainty With Trends• Thanks, Dr. Vigerstol of TNC – we need more than we can buy but academics

can help specify the basis for COLLABORATIVE and SELF-INTERESTED DEALS• Thanks, Dr. Huber-Lee and Dr. Lall: We NEED to be aware of the BIG picture – this is a water conference, but agriculture gets more than 80% of consumptive

use in Western US , and more than 90% globally – “the last oasis” (Postel 1992)Forrester Meadows et al Limits to Growth Turner (2008) etc.

Note for the website version: This is thanks to some of the most impressive presentations at the meeting, before this one was offered. The UCOWR organizers provided a particularly effective structure and sequence.

Why “increase water supplier leverage on land use?” Where IS this going?

• To GET TOWARD SUSTAINABILITY in that Water-Food-Energy nexus, there are some beginning points for thinking LONG-TERM

• And how to transition? How to make improve damage control?• Private ownership of almost all farmland so voluntary…• WATER SUPPLIERS THINK, FINANCE and ACT LONG-TERM• WATER RATE PAYERS are also consumers, recreators, live in places, enjoy

good air and good water… ALL of the ecosystem services are directly or indirectly benefits to the rate-payers…

• RACE: RAPID DESTRUCTION VERSUS LOCAL GREENING… CITIES MUST HELP!• “Put on your own oxygen mask first…” A sad new family motto

The Real Goal: Conserve inherent agricultural capacity and ecosystem services

A working definition:Capacity of agricultural resources, including water, soils, techniques, crafts, and skills, live true-breeding seeds and livestock, to produce food, feed and fiber with inputs only from local and regional agricultural and related activity.INHERENT capacity is greater than utility as a substrate for a stew of fertilization and biocides.

Beginning Points -- Three Keys to Transition?Design for maximum economic yield (not maximum gross output, but best

return on investment of inputs)… for the long planning horizon!•RIGHT-SIZING – best scale for landscape may not be best scale for one farm energy or for export) – economies of scale, not consolidation and simplifying!•GOAL: INTEGRATED MULTIFUNCTIONAL AGROECOLOGY – SETS of right-sized operations, resources, and projects to improve resilience… (e.g., sets of renewable energy and cooperating groups of farms/ranches). (long note!)

• Integrated: livestock and crops and energy and all the other outputs!• Multifunctional: many outputs, try to design for all the outputs• Agroecology: use the whole environment rather than opposing it!

•THE BIG ASSESSMENTS: TRANSFORMATIONAL CHANGE NEEDED!•WHAT WOULD YOU DO IF YOUR FAMILY OWNED ALL THE PIECES?

Maximum economic yield rather than maximum revenue – getting off the treadmill of maximum possible production makes sense!

Cost of making maximum harvest

A GRAPHIC VIEW OF RESILIENCE

A few points on economics – just to mention…• Efficiency is definable on a distribution of resources; it is an adjective, not

a noun.• FIELD SCALE Vs FARM SCALE Vs LANDSCAPE SCALE Vs REGIONAL

SCALE ??? • SHORT –TERM RATIONALITY --Clark, 1973: Economics of Extinction –

Positive discount rate: reduce the future from far ahead to present value: – A century or two out, values are trivial; not much good decades out!– Discount the future PLUS all that uncertainty?

• Evaluation is definable within a general equilibrium, but not transferable to a different equilibrium with reallocated resources and price structures… Norgaard & Howarth 1992, etc

• Benefit-Cost Analysis is NOT adequate for the long term! • We can’t just “do the math”! THINK SOIL FORMATION

and WATER QUALITY/CONTAMINATION…

Two Sets of Problems: Peri-urban/Irrigated “small” vs BIG ag

• For the small operations Still over 50% of farm assets, but 16% of sales… and 7% of net farm income: HIGH VULNERABILITY• Urbanization, rural residential development – tremendous land and water loss!• Inability to finance transition for resilience to climate and “markets”!

• For the Big conventional Ag: Sustainability Doubtful…• Erosion of soil, soil quality losses already very serious!• Herbicide and other resistance evolving fast; no till at risk!

• 25 years (1982-2007) : same # acres but 22% are not the same acres! DISPLACEMENT FROM BEST LAND…then ethanol-spurred sodbusting again!

• FOR EVERYONE: CLIMATE VARIATION AND CHANGE – higher intensity precipitation events, more frequent extremes with cumulative impacts… destructive sequences… (National Climate Assessment 3, May 2014, Chaps 3 and 6; Walthall et al. 2012 USDA input report).

• “SOIL EROSION ESTIMATED TO COST IOWA $1 BILLION IN YIELD” –May 2014

Slide of aerial photos, by Tom Dickinson, IBS and Geography, U of Colorado IRRIGATION REPLACES AND EXPANDS RIPARIAN CONDITIONS

Data source: Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper, 2005. Map by Thomas W. Dickinson, Institute of Behavioral Science,University of Colorado at Boulder

The green area includes land unintentionally wetted by irrigation return flows and conveyance loss -- it is important habitat and filtration and de-nitrification, pollinator, IPM refugia… “Natural”? No; hybrid ecology.

Slide by Tom Dickinson, IBS and Geography, Source: National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP),USDA-FSA Aerial Photography Field Office

Boyd Lake

I-25

One square mile

Conversion of Best Farm Land – Near Loveland, in Weld County, CO

1997

BLUE CURVES – IRRIGATION CANALS

Source: National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP)Slide by Tom Dickinson, Institute of Behavioral Science, CU-Boulder

Conversion of Best Farm Landnear Loveland, in Weld County, CO

One square mile

Source: National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP)Slide by Tom Dickinson, Institute of Behavioral Science, CU-Boulder

Conversion of Best Farm Landnear Loveland, in Weld County, CO

One square mile

Source: National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP)Slide by Tom Dickinson, Institute of Behavioral Science, CU-Boulder

Conversion of Best Farm Landnear Loveland, in Weld County, CO

One square mile

This is where the best land and water is or was…

2007 publication

http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/urban-influence-codes/documentation.aspx#.U6KXFSimWns

New view, 2013 – color Scheme flipped

Here, green is influenceAnd brown is not…

American Farmland Trust: Farming on the Edge – series of reports including 2006, Sokolow, on interactions of conservation easements and local planning ; Esseks et al. 2009: Case studies if 15 urbanizing counties,

Consumer Demand Drives Growth in the Organic Sector (08 Feb 13 Chart of Note) -- THE RACE IS ON! Who gets what they want?And, there is huge growth in direct sales, farmers’ markets and food hubs…

Back to pre-emergent see, post-emergents…. Tillage… Stay with the packageBut make the package more complicated… And, see National Research Council 2012 Summit On managing resistant weeds…

habitat of soil biota… diversity … abundancedownpours… increased soil erosion…

affect soil chemistry and biology…

water retention capacity… soil organic matter…impacts of intense rainfall and drought…

See also Crop Science Society of America,2011, Position Statement on Crop AdaptationTo Climate Change.

NEW: USDA Technical Information Bulletin No. 1935: Climate Change and U.S. Agriculture… Walthall et al. , 2012 and National Climate Assessment, May 2014 … etc…

From the joint statement of ASA, CSSA, SSA…

While there is still soil to save!

Toward Respect for Ecosystems – what if we lived in them?

• The original analysis: Von Thunen, 1826, The Isolated State (inventor of marginal productivity economics: what is a functional region without external inputs?) What makes the most sense?

• More recent: What does sustainable farming look like? E.g. Wes Jackson’s Land Institute farm in Salina, KS: looks pretty good even with price subsidy distortions from uncharged externalities… (Baum 2009)

• Sustainable diversified, integrated farming look pretty good… (Kremen et al. special series in Ecology and Society (2012)). U.S. vs European traditions… (Carr et al. 2012; Renewable Ag. and Food Systems special issue; see also RAFS 23(4) 2008).

• But, big gaps in research on sustainable agriculture as a separate business… (Seufert et al. 2012)… SO, WHAT IF NOT SEPARATE?

More tid-bits on ecosystem services values…• Frisvold and Konyar 2013: reviewed other work, also…

• Nitrate REMOVAL from drinking water costs US $1.7 B/year… Remove 1% from source water, save >$120M/yr.. See also USDA CEAP summaries

• Water-related benefits of preventing sediments/erosion $1.5 to $7/ton• Land Trust Alliance, American Farmland Trust, National Assn. Homebuilders:

• Open space costs $0.35/ $1 in tax revenue• Residential development costs $1.16/$1 in tax revenue (Colorado, 2003: $1.62/$1!)• Consumer will to pay for trails, open space, amenity, quality of life…

• Trust for Public Land, 2010: Long Island NY: 10-fold ROI on Agricultural Conservation Easements; > 23 States now purchase… some tax credits, too

• Philadelphia estimates that it saves >$132M/yr from ecosystem services• So… the right thing looks better even with BCA – why is it rare?

http://www.nyc.gov/html/dep/html/drinking_water/maplevels_wide.shtml

This system provides more than a Billion gallons a day…And avoids very expensive filtration and water treatmentCosts by control of pollution in the watersheds.

The upper watershed in the Catskills was first “developed”by the City in 1905, now programs to maintain water quality

•Whole farm plans•Forest Management plans•Conservation Easements

Payment for ecosystem services – BUT S$$$

Government program assistances; septic design, salting, economicdevelopment [smart growth!]

An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure!

http://www.nycwatershed.org/aw_description.html

http://www.cwconline.org/

Thinking out of the farm-scale box – Toward Agroecology/ecosystems

• “If it was just losing the water, why did we lose so many farms in the wet years?”– Often asked; not answered often

• My argument: farmers and ranchers need to use all their assets, with water as key, AND…

• Cities and water managers are critical partners – Where states dont act or are self-crippled – Citizen have far wider interests than water rates– Water suppliers have foresight!– And cities have cheap long-term capital

– IWRM with full monitoring and adaptive management and long-term participatory planning and great design… Ideal, but meanwhile…

Soil and Water Conservation Society , Ankeny, Iowa 2010THIS IS THE SOURCE on disproportionality of impacts on water from some operations. But, now, add disproportionality in glyphosate resistance management.

Disproportionality is about the need to target the bad actors… the worst sources…

WHAT ABOUT BENEFITS FROM TAKING LANDSCAPE SERIOUSLY?

The Landscape Scale – BENEFITS!!! • Landscape scales for ECOSYSTEM SERVICES , habitat values, connectivity

– AVOID ESA, RECOVER DIVERSITY, SUPPORT TRANSITIONS…• Farm INVESTMENT “right-sizing” in equipment and purchases• Farm output marketing – RISK MANAGEMENT and production

sequencing to meet demands• STABILIZE AGRICULTURAL LANDSCAPE! Be able to use a long-range

planning horizon. (large set of references in “speakers’ notes”) PLACE TO INVEST IN!• Resilience from flexibility of management – organize to stop perforation and

conversion of the best land -- Maybe climate info can stimulate? • TIME TO GET OFF THE GRID!!! See Dosskey et al, various… design for

multifunctionality, for agroecology, for diversity and CUT LOSSES – close the loops… The rectangular land division is no longer sensible!

A Blurry Continuum of Leverage: A THOUSAND THESES AWAIT YOUR MODELING!!!!

OWNERSHIP (single agency)

PARTNERSHIP LEASE CONTRACT – COMMON orPES?

COMMUNITY SUPPORTEDAGRICULTURE

Fee simple – total JUST BUY IT

As definedOWN IT BUTNOT ALONE

Land for long term; some places called “ground lease” for building investment

Crops – commonlyVERY tightly controlled by Non-farm party –40% of US AG NOW!

Non-farmer rights vary with deal; commonly a variable portion of mixed outputs

Permanent easement – usually RIGID land uses, especially if TAXBreaks involved(Fed Estate, State)

CAN BE Flexible andContingent

Farming Rights – often called plain leasing, for specified duration usually a few years or less

Share of crops, historically tightly controlled by land owner

Can include obligations beyond payment or a mix; Farmers set the terms

TransferredDevelopmentRights

Multiple Parties,Multiple Interests(can implement a coalition

Water Banks/Etc: -- where legally allowed – wide variation, purposes may be constrained, or duration

Payment for Ecosystem Services can be contract or more like partnership

Can include access for amenity, recreation, and philanthropy

E.g. TDR for Smart Growth Clustering

E.g. Water sharing permanent deal

E.g. Idaho Snake River. Working water markets

E.g. New York City watershed protection for >1 BG/day

Hundreds are florescing! Often also with direct sales such

Locator MapBessemer isAdjacent to andEast of PuebloColorado

An example of thinking “out of the farm-scale box”… This is some of the best fruit and vegetable land in the Western U.S., but it is being fragmented for “development” and the water rights are of great value…

Canola for (1/2) of Alfalfa

Halved the Alfalfa area, and substituted for Canola

THE TIMING OF WATER APPLICATION HAS ECONOMIC VALUES AS WELL AS THE VOLUME –This provides a lot of early-season water that might be valuable for municipal supply as well as for other higher-value crops… Lots to explore!

Canola (just read “Price-stabilized biodiesel fuel and high-protein feed) for Corn

Halved the Alfalfa area, and substituted for Canola

Putting in winter canola instead of the corn (4130 A) makes water available early and later in the season… this may be what the municipality needs.

Nobody in the driver’s seat… this is “development” of some of the best farm land in the US