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Inconvenient Truths and Inconvenient Truths and Uncertain Futures Uncertain Futures
Summary of HC 434: Physics and Summary of HC 434: Physics and Politics of Global Climate ChangePolitics of Global Climate Change
Our basic ExpectationOur basic Expectation
Long wavelength absorption properties of our atmosphere increase the surface temperature- Water vapor is the dominant effect, followed by CO2
Ice Core data
Provides compelling qualitative evidence of the relation between temperature and CO2
But time resolution is insufficient to truly show if CO2 is a driver or follower of temperature change
Hockey Stick Problems
Role of urbanization may not be adequately account for
Average temperature of the Earth may not be a physically meaningful quantity.
Reliability of multi-century record is questionable
Two D representation is most convincing
MethaneMethane
Potential role of methane is larger than Potential role of methane is larger than CO2CO2
GWP = 21GWP = 21 Scales with population growthScales with population growth Released from permafrostReleased from permafrost Released from hydrate depositsReleased from hydrate deposits Emissions now rising again due to global Emissions now rising again due to global
wetlands returning from prolonged wetlands returning from prolonged droughtdrought
Competition among anthropogenic Competition among anthropogenic forcesforces
Feedbacks are huge uncertaintyFeedbacks are huge uncertainty
Solubility of CO2 is decreasing; Solubility of CO2 is decreasing; Ocean sink now less than beforeOcean sink now less than before
Ocean PH RisingOcean PH Rising
Oceans no longer scale with Oceans no longer scale with increasing emissionsincreasing emissions
Future ScenariosFuture Scenarios
Really, Three ChoicesReally, Three Choices
BAU because we can’t learn or don’t BAU because we can’t learn or don’t know how to do anything differently know how to do anything differently react to disasters as they come react to disasters as they come
A1T: Alternative energy technology A1T: Alternative energy technology and fuels will come in timeand fuels will come in time
B1: We do what Cronon suggests B1: We do what Cronon suggests understand that wilderness is understand that wilderness is everywhere and behave accordinglyeverywhere and behave accordingly
Carbon TradingCarbon Trading
Emission space is fixed Emission space is fixed bid or bid or contract on emissionscontract on emissions
Effective trading requires many Effective trading requires many sources of generationsources of generation
What process determines size of What process determines size of emission space?emission space?
What is the penalty for exceeding What is the penalty for exceeding your emissions cap?your emissions cap?
Carbon MarketCarbon Market
In principle is very large, but how In principle is very large, but how oversees it, accounts for it, verifies oversees it, accounts for it, verifies it?it? Note that the CDM is
supposed to encourage China to switch from Coal to Natural Gas to lower its share of the carbon market. This is not happening to date
Carbon, Capture and Carbon, Capture and StorageStorage
Without a real market, what’s the Without a real market, what’s the incentive for CCS?incentive for CCS?
CCS technologies are not mature and CCS technologies are not mature and need to be tested.need to be tested.
Porosity of sequestration needs to be Porosity of sequestration needs to be tested: only sure reserve is deep tested: only sure reserve is deep oceanocean
CCS the most politically sensible CCS the most politically sensible pathway to stablizationpathway to stablization
Stabilization and WedgesStabilization and Wedges
1 Wedge = 1 Gigaton of Carbon per 1 Wedge = 1 Gigaton of Carbon per yearyear
This is a global effortThis is a global effort Again, real carbon market could help Again, real carbon market could help
provide various incentivesprovide various incentives And remember, global carbon And remember, global carbon
emissions are now increasing emissions are now increasing annuallyannually
Gaining a WedgeGaining a Wedge
• Increase fuel economy for 2 billion cars from 30 to 60 mpg
• or, decrease annual miles for 2 billion 30 mpg cars from 10,000 to 5000
• Efficient buildings: cut carbon emissions in buildings by 25%
• Increase coal fired electricity efficiency from 40% to 60% using advanced high temperature materials
IPCC ScenariosIPCC Scenarios
Once again, three real choicesOnce again, three real choices Remain Market DrivenRemain Market Driven Hope that technological leaps occurHope that technological leaps occur Adopt the kind of global morality/consciousness Adopt the kind of global morality/consciousness
that is needed to reduce personal consumption.that is needed to reduce personal consumption. Electricity use scale as (pop. Growth)Electricity use scale as (pop. Growth)3.53.5
Increasing global inequity should no longer be Increasing global inequity should no longer be tolerated. Aren’t all men created equal?tolerated. Aren’t all men created equal?
Your generation is inheriting the legacy of greedYour generation is inheriting the legacy of greed
Resource DepletionResource Depletion
Global resource use took a sudden Global resource use took a sudden uptick starting around 2000uptick starting around 2000
The world is currently in the most The world is currently in the most unsustainable epoch in history !unsustainable epoch in history !
We Are At Peak Oil!!We Are At Peak Oil!!
Global Carbon Intensity is Global Carbon Intensity is IncreasingIncreasing
Sustainability, My AssSustainability, My Ass
Markets need an ethical dimensionMarkets need an ethical dimension
Waveform of FuckednessWaveform of Fuckedness
Raisins for EveryoneRaisins for Everyone
Along with MalariaAlong with Malaria
And we Policy Wank our way alongAnd we Policy Wank our way along
""The United States is committed to The United States is committed to reducingreducing the the greenhouse gas intensity of the American greenhouse gas intensity of the American economy by 18 percent over the 10-year period economy by 18 percent over the 10-year period from 2002 to 2012.from 2002 to 2012. “ “
Whoops
Which box do we want to be in?Which box do we want to be in?
What to Do?What to Do?
Subversive videos on You Tube don’t hurtSubversive videos on You Tube don’t hurt
Drive less; Period. Period. Period.Drive less; Period. Period. Period.
Act according to Cronon’s imperative: Act according to Cronon’s imperative: Wilderness is EverywhereWilderness is Everywhere
Properly factor in avoidance costs in Properly factor in avoidance costs in economic modeling of climate changeeconomic modeling of climate change
20 Million College Students Have inherited this world
Your Choice Matrix: Give up or Not: