Upload
others
View
2
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
TARGET MARKET OPPORTUNITIES IN ASIA FOR PRAWNS Part of Asia Market Success, April 2016
IN-PROGRESS REVIEW DRAFT Pre-release copy of significant commercial value to industry Document contains incomplete & in-progress research for comment For named reviewer/firm only; do not duplicate or distribute
RECIPIENT
FIRM
IINNHHEERREENNTT LLIIMMIITTAATTIIOONNSS This work was commissioned by the Department of Agriculture and Food Western Australia (DAFWA), with funding through the State Government’s Royalties for Regions program and prepared by Coriolis. This work is based on secondary market research, analysis of information available or provided to Coriolis by our client, and a range of interviews with industry participants and industry experts. Coriolis have not independently verified this information and make no representation or warranty, express or implied, that such information is accurate or complete. Projected market information, analyses and conclusions contained herein are based (unless sourced otherwise) on the information described above and on Coriolis’ judgement, and should not be construed as definitive forecasts or guarantees of future performance or results. Neither Coriolis nor its officers, directors, shareholders, employees or agents accept any responsibility or liability to readers or recipients of this report other than DAFWA or people other than DAFWA who rely upon it (described below as Recipients) with respect to this document. Coriolis wishes to draw Recipients’ attention to the following limitations of the Coriolis document “Target Market Opportunities in Asia for the Western Australian Premium Products” (the Coriolis Document) including any accompanying presentation, appendices and commentary (the Coriolis Commentary): a. Coriolis has not been asked to independently verify or audit the information or material provided to it by or on behalf of the Client or any of the parties involved in the project; b. the information contained in the Coriolis Document or any Coriolis Commentary has been compiled from information and material supplied by third party sources and publicly available information which may (in part) be inaccurate or incomplete; c. Coriolis makes no representation, warranty or guarantee to Recipients, whether express or implied, as to the quality, accuracy, reliability, currency or completeness of the information provided in the Coriolis Document and any Coriolis Commentary or that reasonable care has been taken in compiling or preparing them; d. the analysis contained in the Coriolis Document and any Coriolis Commentary are subject to the key assumptions, further
qualifications and limitations included in the Coriolis Document and Coriolis Commentary, and are subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies, some of which, if not all, are outside the control of Coriolis; and e. any Coriolis Commentary accompanying the Coriolis document is an integral part of interpreting the Coriolis document. Consideration of the Coriolis document will be incomplete if it is reviewed in the absence of the Coriolis Commentary and Coriolis conclusions may be misinterpreted if the Coriolis document is reviewed in absence of the Coriolis Commentary. Coriolis is not responsible or liable in any way for any loss or damage incurred by any person or entity other than DAFWA relying on the information in, and the Recipient unconditionally and irrevocably releases Coriolis from liability for loss or damage of any kind whatsoever arising from, the Coriolis document or Coriolis Commentary including without limitation judgements, opinions, hypothesis, views, forecasts or any other outputs therein and any interpretation, opinion or conclusion that the Recipient may form as a result of examining the Coriolis document or Coriolis Commentary. The Coriolis document and any Coriolis Commentary may not be relied upon by the Recipient, and any use of, or reliance on that material by the Recipient is entirely at their own risk. Coriolis shall have no liability for any loss or damage arising out of any such use. AACCCCEESSSSIIBBIILLIITTYY Coriolis seeks to support the widest possible audience for this research. This document has been designed to be as accessible to as many users as possible. Any person – with or without any form of disability – should feel free to call the authors if any of the material cannot be understood or accessed. We welcome the opportunities to discuss our research with our readers and users. All photos used in this discussion document were either (1) purchased by Coriolis from a range of stock photography providers as documented, (2) received written permission to use Southern
Forest Food Council photo or (3) are low resolution, complete product/brand for illustrative purposes used under fair dealing/fair use for both “research and study” and “review and criticism”. Our usage of them complies with Australian law or their various license agreements (© Dollar Photo Club). CCOOPPYYRRIIGGHHTT Copyright © Western Australian Agriculture Authority, 2016 IIMMPPOORRTTAANNTT DDAAFFWWAA DDIISSCCLLAAIIMMEERR The Chief Executive Officer of the Department of Agriculture and Food and the State of Western Australia and their employees and agents (collectively and individually referred to below as DAFWA) accept no liability whatsoever, by reason of negligence or otherwise, arising from any use or release of information in this report or any error, inaccuracy or omission in the information. DAFWA does not make any representations or warranties about its quality, accuracy, reliability, currency, completeness or suitability for any particular purpose. Before using the information, you should carefully evaluate these things. The information is general in nature, is not tailored to the circumstances of individuals or businesses, and does not constitute financial, taxation, legal, business or management advice. We recommend before making any significant financial or business decisions, you obtain such advice from appropriate professionals who have taken into account your individual circumstances and objectives. The information in this report should not be presumed to reflect or indicate any present or future policies or decisions by the Government of Western Australia.
2
FFIINNAALL vv110000;; AApprriill 22001166
SCREENING OVERVIEW In Phase One of the Target Market Opportunities in Asia for WA Premium Products Report (TMO Report), extensive import/export trade data was fed through a multi-stage screening process to “hone-in” on potential opportunities for Western Australia; stakeholder interviews also fed into this process
3
STRUCTURE OF MULTI-STAGE SCREENING PROCESS USED IN THIS PROJECT Model; 2016
INDIVIDUAL FIRM ROLE & RESPONSIBILITY STAGE I STAGE II STAGE III STAGE IV
PLATFORM PRODUCT POSITIONING TARGET MARKET
FIT WITH WA
WA INDUSTRY-GOOD RESEARCH
9 PLATFORMS
679 TRADE CODES
47 QUAL/QUANT
SCREENS
Project does not attempt to address firm-level operational or executional activities: - R&D
- Product development
- Sourcing & supply chain
- Production & operations
- Marketing & branding
- Sales & sales structure
- Capital structure
- Negotiation
- Distributor appointment
20 OPPORTUNITIES
YOU ARE
HERE
4 This project is focused on “market demand” from the following twenty-four Asian/Middle Eastern markets
Note: Complete list for analysis purposes, some countries excluded from list if no/limited trade data available (e.g. Iran)
24 COUNTRIES DEFINED AS HIGH POTENTIAL TARGET MARKETS FOR WESTERN AUSTRALIA Target markets; 2015
MIDDLE EAST
Bahrain Egypt Israel
Jordan Kuwait
Lebanon Oman Qatar
Saudi Arabia UAE
24 defined target markets for this project
4
SOUTH ASIA
India Pakistan Sri Lanka
Western Australia
SE ASIA
China Hong Kong
Japan South Korea
Taiwan Indonesia Malaysia
Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam
PRODUCT PROFILE
HS Codes 030613, 030623
Product All prawns/shrimp, including live, chilled, dry and frozen; both in shell and shelled; uncooked or cooked; product is generally marketed based on size, colour and uniformity of grading
Out-of-scope Significantly transformed; flavoured; battered; in ready-meals; in other processed foods; soups; etc.
Origin Evidence of wild capture in prehistoric sites; significant protein source in many coastal regions; prawn aquaculture emerged at scale in the late 1970’s
Example ingredients
Whole prawns
Forms/usage - Boiled
- Roasted or barbecued (part or whole)
- Fried; stir fried; similar
- Ingredient or flavouring in a wide range of processed foods (e.g instant noodles)
- Wide range of other uses
Drivers of consumer/market success
- Part of the cuisine styles of a wide range of cultures, particularly in Asia
- Perceived as healthy: omega-3, calcium, iodine and protein
- Suitable for processing into a wide range of value-added products
- However: a common food allergens, not kosher, generally considered halal
WHAT IS THE PRODUCT? Prawns emerged in Phase I as one of twenty “high growth, high potential” opportunities for Western Australia; prawns are a broad family of crustacean eaten across the world
5 Source: photo credit (Dollar Photo); Coriolis analysis
PRODUCT OVERVIEW Example; 2016
DOCUMENT STRUCTURE
What is the global situation?
What is the strategic situation in the market?
In this environment, what is the opportunity for Western Australia?
Who are the potential in-market partners?
Who are the key firms in Western Australia capable of delivering?
6
While there are a wide range of sea life called “shrimp” or “prawns,” only two broad scientific classes of decapods are commercially relevant (Dendrobranchiata and Caridea) collectively called “Natantia”
7 Source: Coriolis from various sources; photo credit (all images from Dollar Photo or are public domain)
~540 species; Penaeus is key family
- Important in both wild capture fishing and aquaculture
- WA Brown tiger prawn (P. esculentus)
- A number of key species are widely used in aquaculture - Giant tiger prawn (Penaeus monodon) - Whiteleg prawn (Penaeus vannamei) - Chinese prawn (Penaeus chinensis) - Kuruma prawn (Penaeus japonicus)
~3,440 species
- Of known species, only a few are commercially important
- Large scale commercial wild catch fisheries - Pink shrimp (Pandalus borealis) - Brown shrimp (Crangon crangon) - Snapping shrimp (Alpheus sp.)
- Not used in commercial aquaculture
Wide range of other species
- Common words “shrimp” and “prawns” have no clear definition or meaning
- Wide range of other species of sea life can be and are labelled as such
- Minor amounts of wild catch; none commercially farmed in aquaculture
Dendrobranchiata Caridea Other “shrimp” and “prawns”
~13% of wild capture
~87% of wild capture ~99% of aquaculture
Minor amounts of wild capture
“Natantia”
The bulk of global prawn production – whether wild capture or aquaculture – comes from a handful of key species
8 NEI: not elsewhere indicated (no further detail); Penaeus includes Metapenaeus; Source: UN FishStat database; Coriolis classifications and analysis
GLOBAL SHRIMP/PRAWN PRODUCTION BY SPECIES BY PRODUCTION TYPE Tonnes; 000; 2013
Capture Aquaculture
Other 471
Fleshy prawn 131
Giant tiger prawn 212
Northern prawn 287
3,419 4,455
Southern rough shrimp 327
Giant tiger prawn 804
Natantian decapods nei 1,030
Akiami paste shrimp 585
Whiteleg shrimp 3,314
Banana prawn 93
Penaeus shrimps nei 181
Other or NEI 95
Kuruma prawn 48
Penaeus shrimps nei 193
Argentine red shrimp 102
TOTAL = 7,874
Nei = Not elsewhere indicated; no further information given or
available; likely a mix of below named
42% of global production
Overall global production is rising, though growing aquaculture is making up for slowing wild capture
9 Source: UN FishStat database; Coriolis classifications and analysis
GLOBAL PRAWN/SHRIMP PRODUCTION BY TYPE Tonnes; 000; 1950-2013
53y ABS
200
8 20
09
1973 1974
1975
1960
1976
1950
1967
1962
2013
1968
1963
Capture
1964
1966 1965
1961
2011
1972
2010
1951
2012
1969 1970
1971
53y CAGR
200
0
1988 1989 1990
1954
1957
200
2
1985 1986
200
1
1987
1994
1997
1995
1955
1996
1993
1991
1999
1956
1998
1992
200
3
1959
200
6
1980
1981
200
5
1977
1952
200
7
1979 1978
1982
Aquaculture
1958
1953
1983
200
4
1984
639
695
644
665
621
669
476
629
681
756 556 50
5
413
3,507
3,479
3,372
4,0
81 3,94
1 3,636
2,884
2,637 2,575
3,251 2,986 3,0
11
4,14
2
6,892 6,70
3 6,54
4
7,874
7,768 7,4
96
5,665 5,399
4,315
6,565 6,4
20
5,869
2,565
1,175 1,122 1,0
28
1,361 1,339
1,267
836 829
811
995 933 881
1,339
1,957 1,84
7 1,768
2,414
2,30
1 2,188 1,719
1,663 1,4
83
1,644
1,699
1,612 4%
17%
3,007
4,453
CAGR 6%
Global wild capture appears to have stalled in the early 2000’s
10 Source: UN FishStat database; Coriolis classifications and analysis
GLOBAL PRAWN/SHRIMP WILD CAPTURE PRODUCTION BY KEY SPECIES Tonnes; 000; 1950-2013
1986 1987
Giant tiger prawn
1985
1982 1983 1984
1950
1990
1992 1991
Other
1958
1989 1988
1974
1975 1976
Southern rough shrimp
63y CAGR
1972 1973
1977
1981
Fleshy prawn
1971
1980
Northern prawn
1978 1979
200
7 20
08
200
9
1954
200
4
200
5 20
06
1955 1956
Akiami paste shrimp
Banana prawn 20
13
2010
20
11 20
12
200
3
1995 1996 1997
Argentine red shrimp
1993 1994
1951 1952
200
1 20
02
1953
200
0
1998 1999
1957
1959
Penaeus shrimps nei
1960
63y ABS
1965
1969 1968
1964
Natantian decapods nei
1970
1963
1967
1961 1962
1966
2,944
2,650
503
2,891
2,848
3,348
641
752
2,831
131 2,44
4
2,368
662
2,151
827 80
8
2,581
474
2,561
3,305
3,429
679
666
3,113
543
914
211
283
327
619
3,419 3,20
1 3,275
692 554
3,300
3,144
638
3,171 91
3,270
1,619
8%
5%
989
1,452
1,627
929
1,666
10%
1,548
1,020
1,253 1,163
317
1,113
626
1,340
1,316
4%
1,321
2%
1,953 1,988
101
1,920
412
2,114
2,04
6
832
1,957
1,705
9%
1%
1,555 1,656
89
877
1,981
6%
1,785 1,975
CAGR 5%
N/C
N/C
CAGR 0%
Looking at the drivers of wild capture growth of prawns over the past decade, highlights that the “stall” is not universal, with some species continuing to grow, while others decline
11 Source: UN FishStat database; Coriolis classifications and analysis
10 YEAR WILD CAPTURE VOLUME GROWTH MATRIX: ABSOLUTE CHANGE VS. RATE OF CHANGE VS. CURRENT VOLUME Tonnes; 000; 2003 vs. 2013
2%
8%
-20 -40
6%
-60
4%
80 60
-4%
-6% 100
0%
0 20
-2%
40 -120 -100 -80
Northern prawn
Natantian decapods nei
200
Southern rough shrimp Akiami paste shrimp
Banana prawn
Argentine red shrimp
Other
Giant tiger prawn
Fleshy prawn
Penaeus shrimps nei
10 year CAGR
10 year absolute change
SHRINKING
GROWING
Bubble scale: tonnes (000); 2013 A bubble this size=
Wild capture prawn production occurs worldwide; however, China, India, Indonesia, and Vietnam stand out
12 Source: UN FAO AgStat database; Coriolis classification and analysis
DISTRIBUTION OF GLOBAL PRAWN WILD CAPTURE PRODUCTION BY COUNTRY/REGION Tonnes; 000; 2013
Others Americas Aus/Pac Ind Sub Europe E Asia SE Asia
Malaysia 108
USA 128
152 18
Other E Asia 5
652
Greenland 92
390
Myanmar 49
Other Pacific 1
Philippines 39
Australia
17
124 759
Indonesia 240
1,324
Canada 149
Mexico 67
Other SE Asia 9
China 1,257
NA
/ME/C
A
48
Other Americas 53
Other Europe
110
Other 23 Thailand
47
India 390
Nigeria 24
Japan 16
Brazil 38
Argentina 101
Other SS A
frica 56
Viet Nam 266
S Korea 28
Guyana 25
Taiwan 17
Norw
ay 14
Growth in global wild capture is primarily coming from China, SE Asia, India and, to a lesser extent, the Americas
13 Source: UN FishStat database; Coriolis classifications and analysis
GLOBAL PRAWN/SHRIMP WILD CAPTURE PRODUCTION BY KEY SPECIES Tonnes; 000; 1950-2013
1974
1985
1969
2012
Norway
200
5
Other E Asia
Indonesia
1993
Korea, Republic of
1996
1953
India
200
4
Malaysia
Mexico
Other Europe
China
1954
Other
1965
1975
1989
200
8
1979
2010
Taiwan Province of China
Other E/SE Asia
1986
1968
1977
Australia 1978
Argentina
1994
1987
1967
200
9
Nigeria
200
6
Guyana
1951
Greenland
1980
1952
Thailand
Vietnam
1966
1983
1995
200
7
1988
1976
1950
2011
1955
1961
1999
1997
Philippines
200
1
1982
1957
1973
1962
1998
Other SS Africa
2013
1984
1991
1959 1960
Other Pacific 200
0
1970
1963
1958
1971
NA/ME/CA
1972
Other Americas
53y CAGR 53y ABS
1992
United States of America
1990
1956
1964
1981
Brazil
200
2
Japan
Myanmar 20
03
Canada
3,113
1,705
4%
13%
7%
1,555
15
1,230
1,666
4%
13
8%
1% 11%
1%
8%
10%
3%
1
5%
1,785
1,656
3,429
1,627
1%
8%
7%
4
3%
1,548
2%
4%
1,975
8%
3,419
4%
3,305
2,04
6
666
1,163
2,891
692
2,650
1,113
641
1,957
2,831
1,253
662
2,944
626
2,151
989
2,44
4
832
2,368
929 877
2,581
1,020
2,114
752
2,561
827 80
8
0% 3,270
1%
1,920
412
3,275
1,452
4%
8%
5%
3,171
1,981 3%
1%
1,619
3,144
1,953
1,340
638
3,348
679 619
1,321
2,848
1,316
474
1,988
3,201
554
3,300
503
56 24
20 41
48 24
44 11
34 49 37 8
232
320
94
261
92 17
23 99
17 1
42
149
CAGR 5%
N/C
CAGR 0%
Looking at the drivers of wild capture prawn production growth, highlights that most countries/regions are flat or shrinking; growth is concentrated in a handful of countries: Vietnam, Myanmar, Argentina & Malaysia
14 Source: UN FishStat database; Coriolis classifications and analysis
10 YEAR WILD CAPTURE VOLUME GROWTH MATRIX: ABSOLUTE CHANGE VS. RATE OF CHANGE VS. CURRENT VOLUME Tonnes; 000; 2003 vs. 2013
50 -55 -50 0
0%
-5%
10%
5%
150 100 170
Japan
Australia 200
S Korea
Taiwan
USA
Argentina
Mexico
Greenland
Other E Asia
Canada
Brazil
Other
Norway
China
India
Other SS Africa Nigeria
Other Europe
NA/ME/CA
Myanmar
Guyana
Philippines
Other E/SE Asia
Malaysia
Indonesia
Other Americas
Vietnam
Thailand
10 year CAGR
10 year absolute change
SHRINKING
GROWING
Bubble scale: tonnes (000); 2013 A bubble this size=
Prawn aquaculture is concentrated in Asia and in countries near the equator
15 Source: UN FAO AgStat database; Coriolis classification and analysis
DISTRIBUTION OF GLOBAL PRAWN AQUACULTURE PRODUCTION BY COUNTRY/REGION Tonnes; 000; 2013
Aus/Pac East Asia Other Ind Sub Americas SE Asia
Other E Asia 19
49 1,655 5 646 381
Nicaragua 26 Bangladesh
90
1,718
Venezuela 20
Europe 0
Other C/S America 56
SS Africa 6
India 290
Brazil 65
Other Pacific 2
Australia
4
North America 6
Honduras 49
Ecuador 304
Saudi Arabia
20
Other 5
Mexico 121
Thailand 329
China 1,699
Other SE Asia 1
Vietnam 541
Indonesia 623
Other N
A/M
E/CA
19
Philippines 60
Malaysia 50
Myanmar 52
Growth in global prawn aquaculture is primarily coming from China, SE Asia, India and Ecuador
16 Source: UN FishStat database; Coriolis classifications and analysis
GLOBAL PRAWN/SHRIMP AQUACULTURE PRODUCTION BY KEY SPECIES Tonnes; 000; 1950-2013
Europe
200
5
1992
1955
1961
200
0
1997
1963
2012
1980
1989
2010
1971 1970
1973
1999
200
3
1981
Nicaragua
Malaysia
1951
1976
Philippines
China
1975
Australia 1974
1978
SS Africa
1977
1991
200
4
1953
Ecuador
1990
Other E Asia
1979
Bangladesh
1998
Other
2013
Mexico
1962
1954
2011
1967
1982
Saudi Arabia
Honduras
200
7
1959
200
8
1985
1987
1993
1958
1952
1965
1968
Other C/S America
200
2
Other SE Asia
Indonesia
1972
1986
North America
1950
1994
Venezuela
Thailand
200
1
1988
1983
Myanmar
1964
India
1956
1996
200
6
Other NA/ME/CA
Vietnam
1966
200
9
1995
Brazil 1984
1957
1969
1960
63y ABS
21
11 9 9
17 5
4,4
55
14
2,051
680
838
1,467
897
577
2,668 2,365
621
1,137
917
986 926
1,050
835 883
928
1,311
3,145
63 53
89 72
3,779
22
4,339
31
4,190
44
214
3,295
494
320
3,532
112
172
3,40
0
142
19
1,699
50 1
3 1 1 2
290 5
90
20 19
328
52 60
623
541
2 3 3 4
3 5 3 2 2 2 3 3 2 3
6
121
49 65
304
56 0 26 20
2 4
CAGR 17%
N/C
Looking at the drivers of prawn aquaculture increases over the past decade highlights that most growth is coming from a handful of countries, particularly China, Indonesia, Vietnam, Ecuador and India
17 Source: UN FishStat database; Coriolis classifications and analysis
10 YEAR AQUACULTURE VOLUME GROWTH MATRIX: ABSOLUTE CHANGE VS. RATE OF CHANGE VS. CURRENT VOLUME Tonnes; 000; 2003 vs. 2013
600 400 -200 -6%
1,000 200 800 0 1,100
-4%
4%
14%
2%
12%
8%
10%
6%
16%
0%
-2%
Venezuela
Honduras
Nicaragua
SS Africa
Saudi Arabia
Other C/S America
Europe
Other Pacific North America
200
Australia
Brazil
Ecuador
Mexico
Other E/SE Asia
Malaysia
Vietnam
Thailand
Myanmar
Philippines
Indonesia
Other NA/ME/CA India
Other
China
Bangladesh
10 year CAGR
10 year absolute change
SHRINKING
GROWING
Bubble scale: tonnes (000); 2013 A bubble this size=
DOCUMENT STRUCTURE
What is the global situation?
What is the strategic situation in the market?
In this environment, what is the opportunity for Western Australia?
Who are the potential in-market partners?
Who are the key firms in Western Australia capable of delivering?
18
METHODOLOGICAL NOTE When reviewing the trade data presented in this section, it is important to realise that our client brief only covers part of the total “universe”; please review it with this in mind
19 Source: UN Fishstat database; UN Comtrade database; Coriolis analysis and estimates
EXAMPLE: SIMPLIFIED STRUCTURE OF PRODUCT FLOWS IN AND OUT OF VIETNAMESE PRAWN INDUSTRY Kgs; m; US$; b; 2013/14 (as available)
Domestic Wild Catch 266m/$1.1b
Domestic Aquaculture 541m/$2.2b
HS030613/030623 Imported chilled/frozen prawns from all sources
175m/$1.5b
Vietnamese Processors
Vietnamese Consumption
(Locals & tourists)
HS030613/030623 Exported chilled/frozen
prawns to all destinations 286m/$2.55b
HS160520 Exported prawns
prepared/preserved 127m/$1.34b
Prawns exported in other forms
(e.g. ready-meals, soups, frozen egg rolls, etc.)
HS030613/030623 Exported to 24 target
markets in Asia/Mid-East 144m/$1.26b
HS030613/030623 Exported to
rest of planet 142m/$1.29b
Focus of this document
Focus of this document
EXAMPLE ISSUE IS COMMON ACROSS
ALL MAJOR PROCESSORS
Western Australia can grow prawn exports to Asia, though this will require focus and effort
20
- Total Asian/Middle Eastern chilled/frozen prawn import value is rising, driven by a combination of growing volumes and growing prices
- Within the prawns trade, frozen prawns are rising more than ”not-frozen” (live or chilled) - Asian/Middle East prawn import supply is currently dominated by India, Vietnam, China and other Asian sources,
followed by Ecuador - Five countries – India, Ecuador, China, Vietnam & Indonesia – have been capturing most value growth over the
past decade - Over the past five years, Ecuador, India, & Argentina stand out for rate of growth, followed by Vietnam and China - Average FOB price to target Asian markets vary by supplier, with reasonable price variation
- Turning to demand, prawns go to a wide range of markets; however, Japan is currently the key Asian/Middle East market, followed by Vietnam, which has a significant processing sector
- Over the past ten years, Vietnam and East Asia have driven import value growth into Asia/the Middle East - Vietnam has been driving import growth over the past five years - Average prawn import prices varies by country, with Hong Kong, Malaysia and Japan standing out as larger
markets paying premium prices - Imported prawn consumption and aggregate prawn imports appear correlated with income per capita,
particularly across East Asia; this suggests China has long-term growth potential - Market share varies by country; Australia has some strength in parts of SE Asia and has extensive opportunities
elsewhere - Australia has some strength – in Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Hong Kong and Malaysia – on which to build - Data supports new high value, premium prawn opportunities being initially launched in (1) Hong Kong, (2) Japan and (3)
Singapore - As a “Straw Man” for discussion, we identify an export market roll-out plan
$-
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Total Asian/Middle Eastern chilled/frozen prawn import value is rising, driven by a combination of growing volumes and growing prices
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
21 * Compound Annual Growth Rate; Source: UN Comtrade database; Coriolis analysis and classifications
VOLUME T; 000; 2004-2014
$-
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
$8.00
$9.00
$10.00
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
AVERAGE PRICE PER KILOGRAM US$; 2004-2014
VALUE US$m; 2004-2014
CAGR* 6%
CAGR 6%
CAGR 12%
TOTAL IMPORTS TO ASIA/MIDDLE EAST TARGET REGION (24 COUNTRIES)
$-
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Within the prawns trade, frozen prawns are rising more than ”not-frozen” (live or chilled)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
22 * Compound Annual Growth Rate; Source: UN Comtrade database; Coriolis analysis and classifications
VOLUME T; 000; 2004-2014
$-
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
$8.00
$9.00
$10.00
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
AVERAGE PRICE PER KILOGRAM US$; 2004-2014
VALUE US$m; 2004-2014
TOTAL IMPORTS TO ASIA/MIDDLE EAST TARGET REGION (24 COUNTRIES)
Frozen
Not frozen
Frozen
Not frozen
Frozen
Not frozen
Asian/Middle East prawn import supply is currently dominated by India, Vietnam, China and other Asian sources, followed by Ecuador
23 NA/ME/CA = North Africa/Middle East/Central Asia; Note: data is as reported by sender (FOB), not receiver; Source: UN Comtrade database; Coriolis analysis and classifications
EXPORT VALUE BY SUPPLIER TO TARGET REGION (24 COUNTRIES) US$m; FOB; 2014
Americas
Europe
Aus/Pac
Ind Sub
E Asia SE Asia
Other
Hong Kong SAR $69
$1,357 $107
$92
$57
Other E Asia $10
$1,343 $1,152 $2,338
Other Americas $86
Other $20
India $1,278
Vietnam $1,263
Pakistan $79
NA/ME/CA $14
Canada $115
Russia $80
SS Africa $23
Europe $12
USA $64
Philippines $45
Malaysia $161
Australia $88
China $1,073
Other SE Asia $14
Thailand $373
Indonesia $482
Ecuador $803
Greenland $64
Pac I. $19
Argentina $213
TOTAL = US$6,445m
Five countries – India, Ecuador, China, Vietnam & Indonesia – have been capturing most value growth over the past decade
24 Note: data is as reported by sender (FOB), not receiver; Source: UN Comtrade database; Coriolis analysis and classifications
EXPORT VALUE BY SUPPLIER TO TARGET REGION (24 COUNTRIES) US$m; FOB; 2004-2014
NA/ME/CA
Greenland
2011 2006
China
Europe
Thailand
2007
USA
Other SE Asia
Vietnam
2004
Argentina
Pac I.
SS Africa Russia
Hong Kong SAR
2010 2008 2005 2009
Indonesia
Other
India
Philippines
10y ABS
Other Americas
Malaysia
2013
Australia
Ecuador
2012 2014
Canada
Pakistan
Other E Asia
$5
$6,445
$74
$161
$17
$16
$21
$232
$14
$1,995
$10
$225
$8
$2,011
$188 $21
$16
$199
$14
$4,287
$62
$4,589
$22
$41
$21
$30
$29
$19 $18
$47
$45
$19
$11
$56
$5,384
$68
$2,543
$6
$14
$6
$3,498
$10 $45
$24
$302
$13
$42
+$1,027
-$18 $20
$60
+$5
-$13
$15
$42
$146
+$482 $88
+$702
$65
$9
+$72
$69
$16
$10
+$4
$10
+$194
+$0
+$50 +$6
+$797
+$13
+$1
$83
+$78
$16
$14
$13
+$64
$16
$84
$2,037
$18
$486
$515
$723
$88
$1,073
$788
$874
$2,002
$162
$7
$236
$13
$94
$19
$110
$2,058
+$0
$69
$13
+$45
$12
+$71
$64
$24
$21
+$42
+$61
$6 $8
$69
+$771
$46
$9 $9
-$48
$152
$20
$251
$33 $11
$16
$84 $281 $273 $47 $284
$16
$102
$40 $35
$136
$30 $30
$41
$14
$26 $29
$15 $28
$35
$7 $15
$40
$48
$32
$27
$40
$52
$339
$60
$245 $246 $53
$847
$1,278
$52
$551
$568
$37
$17 $16 $11 $18 $10
$130
$19
$9
$115 $26 $11
$6
$14
$6 $9 $9 $29
$23
$28
$13
$49
$61
$58
$73
$2 $57
$132
$80
$59
$84
$50
$73
$12
$109
$12
$13
$109
$2 $0
$89
$2 $2
$120
$24 $85
$42 $23
$331 $318
$14
$195
$213
$21 $25 $3 $18
$33
$64 $26 $15 $10
$34 $31
$91 $88
$97
$420
$373
$12
$122 $103
$19
$82
$214
$384
$803
$390
$21
$346
$590
$647
$442
$442
$527
$71
$795
$23
$647 $613
$21
$1,124
$1,263
$17
$923
$918
$625
$50
$79
$78
$64
$35
$607
$29
$617 $561
$38 $83 $62
$86
$65 $45
$62
$74 $51
$73
$64 $69
$22
$443
$437
$18
$377
$58 $14
$482
$469
$22
CAGR 7%
Over the past five years, Ecuador, India, & Argentina stand out for rate of growth, followed by Vietnam and China
25 Note: data is as reported by sender (FOB), not receiver; Source: UN Comtrade database; Coriolis analysis and classifications
FIVE YEAR EXPORT GROWTH MATRIX: CHANGE IN VALUE VS. RATE OF GROWTH VS. ABSOLUTE VALUE US$m; 2009 vs. 2014
$600 $-200 $200 $0 $400
20%
10%
30%
50%
40%
0%
$1,000 $800 $1,200 -10%
Canada
Vietnam
Russia
Other Americas
Indonesia
SS Africa
India
Pac I.
$500m
Australia
Pakistan
USA
Ecuador
Greenland
China
Hong Kong SAR
Thailand Philippines
Other SE Asia
Malaysia
Other
Argentina
NA/ME/CA Europe
Other E Asia
5y absolute change in value
5y CAGR
Bubble scale: US$m; 2014 A bubble this size=
Average FOB price to target Asian markets varies by supplier, with reasonable price variation
26 Note: data is as reported by sender (FOB), not receiver; Source: UN Comtrade database; Coriolis analysis and classifications
AVERAGE EXPORT VALUE COST CURVE BY SUPPLIER US$/kg; t; FOB; 2014
Pac I.
NA
/ME/C
A
SS Africa
Canada
Thailand
USA
Australia
China
India
Philippines
Other A
mericas
Ecuador
Malaysia
Hong K
ong SAR
Greenland
Pakistan
Other SE A
sia
Russia
Vietnam
Other E A
sia
Indonesia
Argentina
Other
Europe
$8.27
$7.17
$10.62
$12.45
$7.39
$7.04
$4.82
$5.50
$6.56
$6.41
$8.00
$11.60 $10
.28
$10.94
$12.93
$4.95
$9.63
$10.4
0
$8.61
$8.75
$8.25
$18.30
$16.03
$10.12 Average
FOB value
Volume imported by defined target market
Turning to demand, prawns go to a wide range of markets; however, Japan is currently the key Asian/Middle East market, followed by Vietnam, which has a significant processing sector
27 Note: data is as reported by sender (FOB), not receiver; Source: UN Comtrade database; Coriolis analysis and classifications
IMPORT VALUE BY MARKET BY REGION US$m; FOB; 2014
NA
/ME/C
A
East Asia
Indian Sub
SE Asia
China $801
$17 $2,115 $3,870
Other $24
Other $1
$442
Israel $15
Egypt $78
Singapore $110
India $17
Saudi Arabia $60
Bahrain $8
UAE $211
Kuwait $34
Qatar $11 South Korea
$511
Japan $1,771
Hong Kong SAR $480
Taiwan $307 Vietnam
$1,494
Thailand $77
Malaysia $400
Indonesia $15
Philippines $20
TOTAL = US$6,445m
Significant processing for
re-export
Over the past ten years, Vietnam and East Asia have driven import value growth into Asia & the Middle East
28 Note: data is as reported by sender (FOB), not receiver; Source: UN Comtrade database; Coriolis analysis and classifications
IMPORT VALUE BY MARKET BY REGION US$m; FOB; 2004-2014
China
2006
Saudi
2010 2013
Malaysia
2011
India
Indonesia
Thailand
2005 2012
Hong Kong SAR
Egypt
2004
Qatar
Singapore
Bahrain
Other ME
Philippines
2007
Japan
2008
10y ABS
UAE
Other Ind. Sub
Kuwait
South Korea
Israel
Taiwan
Vietnam
2009 2014
$2,543
$5 $4
$47
$511 $10
$416
$91
$2,011
$57
$3,498
$6,445
$18
$1,914
$1,888
$17
$5,384
$1,771
$1,123 $1,127
$1
$1,236
$2,073
$34
$1,787
$111
$284
$8
$242
$4,287
$353
$6
$377
$148
$21
$126 $207 $164
$14
$4,589
+$17
+$29
$51
$156
+$308
$225 $151
$48
$137
+$1,427
$480
+$543
-$48
$179
$68
$176 $338
+$11 +$32
+$176 +$7
+$77 +$13
+$57
+$21
+$17 -$2
$35
$411 $683 $801
$521
+$13
$62
$295
$307
$271
$211
$93
$2,058
$100
$84 $159
$2
$92
$1,995
$254
$2,002
$200
$253
$112
+$396
$61
$223 $250
+$400
$346
$297
+$250
$107
$83 $100 $98
$74
+$664
$2,037
$154
$0
$2 $4
$1
$1
$59
$17 $1
$93
$1
$2 $1
$3 $8 $7 $7
$1
$1 $1 $52 $91
$5
$6
$110
$52 $54 $35 $38
$5
$96
$66
$78
$61
$10
$12
$11
$101
$104
$106
$5 $6 $5 $5 $4 $3
$12
$6
$6
$3
$12
$39
$18
$24
$33
$2 $7 $9
$60
$7
$66
$67
$63
$17
$11
$10
$78
$88
$56
$37
$24
$1
$13
$15
$6 $27
$15
$16
$25
$2
$22
$22
$18
$20
$15
$3
$3
$17
$8
$20
$64
$25
$1 $0
$18 $18 $9 $7
$67
$1,014
$1 $1
$500
$1,494
$1,281 $1,257 $1,229
$2
$287
$34 $26 $46
$1
$1
$1
$104
$32
$59
$36
$11
$48 $46
$20
$26
$32
$39
$7
$3
$142
$3 $3
$115
$198
$249
$400
$246
$3
$8
$4
$17
$2
$3 $3 $1
$14
$7
$12
$2
$6
$98
$30
$47
$77
$2
$3
$5
$2
CAGR 12%
Bubble scale: US$m; 2014 A bubble this size=
Vietnam has been driving import growth over the past five years
29 Note: data is as reported by sender (FOB), not receiver; Source: UN Comtrade database; Coriolis analysis and classifications
FIVE YEAR IMPORT GROWTH MATRIX: CHANGE IN VOLUME VS. RATE OF GROWTH VS. ABSOLUTE VALUE US$m; t; 2009 vs. 2014
0%
-5%
50,000 0 -50,000 100,000 -10%
200,000 150,000
30%
25%
20%
45%
40%
35%
15%
10%
5%
Saudi Arabia
$500m
Egypt
Lebanon South Korea
Jordan
Oman
Taiwan
Malaysia China
Sri Lanka
Bahrain
Japan
Indonesia
Hong Kong SAR
Thailand
UAE
Vietnam
Kuwait
Pakistan
Israel
Qatar
Philippines
India
Singapore
5y absolute change in volume
5y CAGR Value
Average prawn import prices varies by country, with Hong Kong, Malaysia and Japan standing out as larger markets paying premium prices
30 Note: data is as reported by sender (FOB), not receiver; Source: UN Comtrade database; Coriolis analysis and classifications
AVERAGE IMPORT VALUE COST CURVE BY MARKET/REGION US$/kg; t; FOB; 2014
Thailand
Bahrain
Qatar
Vietnam
Jordan
Indonesia
Malaysia
Saudi Arabia
Hong K
ong SAR
Om
an
Israel Lebanon
South Korea China
Singapore Pakistan
Taiw
an
Philippines
Japan
India
Kuw
ait
UA
E
Sri Lanka
Egypt
$8.90
$9.14
$9.20
$3.48
$8.67
$8.43 $7.68
$7.84
$8.41
$8.01
$16.62
$9.60
$8.98
$12.07
$8.48
$8.54
$8.25 $8.35
$10.10
$10.12 $9.4
2
$4.53
$7.00
$12.41
Volume imported
Average import
value
Imported prawn consumption and aggregate prawn imports appear correlated with income per capita, particularly across East Asia; this suggests China has long-term growth potential
31 Note: data is as reported by sender (FOB), not receiver; Source: UN Comtrade database; Wikipedia (GDP/capita); Coriolis analysis and classifications
MARKET SIZE DRIVERS: GDP PER CAPITA VS. IMPORTS PER CAPITA VS. MARKET SIZE Kg; US$; t; 2014
$10,000
5.0
4.5
$60,000 $0 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $20,000
1.5
2.0
0.5
1.0
3.5
4.0
2.5
3.0
0.0
5.5
Israel Egypt
UAE
South Korea
Jordan
Japan
Lebanon
Kuwait
50,000
Sri Lanka Bahrain
Indonesia
Hong Kong SAR
China
Malaysia
Singapore
India
Saudi
Thailand
Vietnam
Oman
Taiwan
Qatar
Philippines
Pakistan GDP per capita
Imports per capita
Bubble scale: tonnes; 2014 A bubble this size=
Market share varies by country; Australia has some strength in parts of SE Asia and has extensive opportunities elsewhere
32 Note: data is as reported by sender (FOB), not receiver; Source: UN Comtrade database; Coriolis analysis and classifications
IMPORT VALUE MARKET SHARE BY MARKET BY KEY SUPPLIER % of value in US$m; FOB; 2014
Hong Kong SAR
Other
Malaysia
China South Korea
Taiw
an
UA
E
Singapore
Thailand
Egypt
Vietnam Japan
$211
Malaysia $10
$307 $801
Thailand $37
Australia $14
$1,771
Malaysia $30
Thailand $45
Malaysia $8
Thailand $55
$480
Thailand $38
$511
Thailand $162
$1,494
USA $18
$40
0
Malaysia $28
$110
China $340
China $122
Philippines $1
Philippines $1
Philippines $11
Australia $6
Australia $5
China $302
China $2
China $12
Philippines $26
China $12
Australia $6
$77
Malaysia $37
Australia $0
Australia $5
Malaysia $6
Australia $38
Malaysia $39
$78
China $2
China $69
Australia $11
$205
China $193
Philippines $2
Pakistan $30
Ecuador $129
Pakistan $13
Ecuador $41
Pakistan $12
Pakistan $6
India $8
India $20
India $142
Ecuador $8
Pakistan $9
India $26
India $85
Other $76
Argentina $61
Argentina $43
Other $8
Other $20
Argentina $67
Argentina $9
Other $67
Ecuador $596
Other $83
Other $92
Argentina $10
Other $45
Indonesia $8
Indonesia $9
Indonesia $15
Indonesia $13
USA $19
Thailand $6
Thailand $21
Indonesia $40
Indonesia $25
Indonesia $358
India $345
India $567
Canada $65
Vietnam $39
India $20
Ecuador $2
India $33
India $19
Vietnam $217
Vietnam $69
Vietnam $460
Vietnam $314
Vietnam $20
Vietnam $33
Vietnam $80
TOTAL = US$6,445m
Australia has some strength – in Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Hong Kong and Malaysia – on which to build
33 Note: data is as reported by sender (FOB), not receiver; Source: UN Comtrade database; Coriolis analysis and classifications
AUSTRALIAN IMPORT VALUE MARKET VS. MARKET VALUE US$m; FOB; 2014
Bahrain
Om
an
Saudi
South Korea
Qatar
Egypt
Singapore
Japan
Kuw
ait
Indonesia
Thailand
Malaysia
Israel
Vietnam
Hong K
ong SAR
India
Jordan
Taiw
an
China
Sri Lanka
Pakistan
UA
E
Philippines
Lebanon
0%
1% 1%
1%
3%
2%
0%
0
%
0%
0%
7%
31%
1% 0%
2%
0%
2% 0
%
0%
0%
1%
0%
0
%
Total value of imports
Australian market share
Bubble scale: US$m; 2014 A bubble this size=
Data supports new high value, premium prawn opportunities being initially launched in (1) Hong Kong, (2) Japan and (3) Singapore
34 Note: data is as reported by sender (FOB), not receiver; Source: UN Comtrade database; Coriolis analysis and classifications
WHERE TO FOCUS FOR NEW HIGH VALUE, PREMIUM PRODUCTS: AU SHARE VS. AVERAGE VALUE VS. MARKET SIZE % of value; US$; US$m; 2014
$12.00
$10.00
7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 4.0% 3.0%
$13.00
8.0%
$8.00
$0.00
$2.00
$6.00
$4.00
Japan
Malaysia
Thailand
$500
Vietnam
Jordan
South Korea
Israel
Pakistan
Kuwait UAE Bahrain
China
Hong Kong SAR
Indonesia
Oman Qatar
Singapore
Sri Lanka
Philippines
Lebanon
Taiwan
India
Saudi Arabia
Egypt
AU share of total import value [NOTE: LOGARITHMIC]
Value average
FOB $/kg
1
2
3
As a “Straw Man” for discussion, we identify an export market roll-out plan
35
PRELIMINARY “STRAW MAN” DEVELOPMENT & ROLLOUT PLAN FOR CHILLED PRAWN OPPORTUNITY Model; 2016
1 Export launch in Hong Kong
2 Export launch in Japan
3 Export launch in Singapore
0 Product development and testing
- High income, sophisticated market and consumers
- AU already has a strong market position on which WA can build
DOCUMENT STRUCTURE
What is the global situation?
What is the strategic situation in the market?
In this environment, what is the opportunity for Western Australia?
Who are the potential in-market partners?
Who are the key firms in Western Australia capable of delivering?
36
Western Australia is well positioned to continue to grow prawn exports to Asia
37
IS THE MARKET DEVELOPED & COMPETITIVE?
- The flow of prawns, from the sea through to the consumer in Asia, is convoluted and complex; this is driven by labour-intensive further processing and the fragmented nature of seafood distribution
WHAT IS WA CAPABLE OF DELIVERING?
- Western Australian prawn packer/shippers need to continue to move forward and improve through improved product development and presentation
- Western Australian prawns are a premium product for which a wide rage of potential positions or claims exist to develop a more differentiated offer for Asia
- As a “Straw Man” for discussion, we identify an opportunity to reposition Western Australian prawns as the premium prawn of Asia by developing and marketing select characteristics
HOW IS THE MARKET STRUCTURED? The flow of prawns, from the sea through to the consumer in Asia, is convoluted and complex; this is driven by labour-intensive further processing and the fragmented nature of seafood distribution
38 Source: Coriolis
SIMPLIFIED MODEL OF SUPPLY CHAIN: PRAWNS Model; 2016
Retail
Regional Seafood Wholesale Markets
Regional Distributor(s)
Agent/Broker/ Distributor
WA Packer/Shipper
Other Australian Packer/Shipper
WA Fisherman
Ecuadorian Packer/Shipper These stages branch
and add multiple layers in large markets
Vietnam Processor
Frozen Seafreight Logistics
Frozen Seafreight Logistics
Other prawn processors
Indian Packer/Shipper
Domestic Packer/Processor
In-Market Farmer
Foodservice
Other SE Asian Packer/Processor
Chinese Packer/Processor
Local Wild Capture Operators
Local Aquaculture Operators
on-boat freezing/packing
Export/re-export Globally
WHAT IS WA CAPABLE OF DELIVERING? STRATEGIC DIRECTION Western Australian prawn packer/shippers need to continue to move forward and improve through improved product development and presentation
39
SUGGESTED STRATEGIC DIRECTION: WESTERN AUSTRALIAN PRAWNS Model; 2016
Bulk frozen for further
processing in low cost labour areas
Premium whole chilled prawns
Australian branded
Regionally branded
Controlled supply chain
Consumer/ Chef direct
WA suppliers are here in Asia
High growth, high potential opportunities
are here
Leading perishables
sectors are here
Track-&-Trace
PRELIMINARY FOR DISCUSSION
WHAT IS WA CAPABLE OF DELIVERING? CLAIMS Western Australian prawns are a premium product for which a wide rage of potential positions or claims exist to develop a more differentiated offer for Asia
40 Source: Coriolis; photo credit (Dollar Photo)
IDENTIFIED POTENTIAL PREMIUM POSITIONS Model; 2016
Identified source region “Jumbo”/Larger grades Uniform appearance High in protein
Identified catch location
Unique/premium species
Track & trace
HEALTH PROVENANCE INDULGENCE CONVENIENCE
Wild caught
Premium Chef-ready or heat-&-eat Low in fat
Fisherman’s story
Rich in omega-3
Antibiotic free
No added hormones
Ensured quality
Sustainable
Clean waters
PRELIMINARY FOR DISCUSSION
Never frozen
Respects the environment
Flavoured
w/dip or dressing
“Cold water”
MSC certified
Peeled
Cooked
WHAT IS WA CAPABLE OF DELIVERING? GLOBAL PEERS Products from other processors in other markets demonstrate what is possible in terms of developing a premium Western Australian prawn offer
41 Source: photo credit (fair use/fair dealing; low resolution; complete product/brand for illustrative purposes); Coriolis analysis
EXAMPLES OF PREMIUM PRODUCTS FROM OTHER MARKETS Select; 2016
Succulent & sweet Large Raw Seaside favourite
Certified sustainable Food you feel good about Shell on Cold water
MSC Family pack Jumbo Shell on
Caught in the pristine icy waters of the Gulf of St. Lawrence Cooked Taste the Difference
Large King Prawns
Peeled
Peel & eat
Traditional pub favourite
Responsibly sourced
No chemicals ever
Peeled & deveined
Great shrimp taste & texture Taste tested by customers
Plain prawn
WHAT IS A POTENTIAL WA OFFER? As a “Straw Man” for discussion, we identify an opportunity to reposition Western Australian prawns as the premium prawn of Asia by developing and marketing select characteristics
42 Source: Coriolis; photo credit (Dollar Photo and Southern Forests Food Council Inc.)
HYPOTHETICAL EXAMPLE OF POTENTIAL PREMIUM PRODUCT FROM WA Model; 2016
High in protein Rich in omega-3
From Western Australia
Fisherman’s story
Track-&-Trace code
Chef-ready
HEALTH
PROVENANCE
INDULGENCE
CONVENIENCE
Ensured quality
PRELIMINARY FOR DISCUSSION
Organic Sustainable / MSC Certified
DOCUMENT STRUCTURE
What is the global situation?
What is the strategic situation in the market?
In this environment, what is the opportunity for Western Australia?
Who are the potential in-market partners?
Who are the key firms in Western Australia capable of delivering?
43
FOCUS MARKET – 1 – HONG KONG Hong Kong has a robust and well-developed food retailing and foodservice sector
$11.5
$8.0
$12.8
$3.9
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Turnover Purchases
44 Source: Coriolis from a wide range of sources
TURNOVER & PURCHASES US$b; 2014
ESTIMATED WHOLESALE FOOD & FMCG PURCHASES US$b; 2014
Retail Foodservice
$3.9 $8.0
Foodservice $3.9
CRA $0.3 CRE
$0.2
Wellcome $1.2
AEON $0.6
Drug stores $0.6
Wet markets, etc. $3.0
ParknShop $1.5
Other retail $0.6
Foodservice
Retail 14,000+ restaurants 1,000+ bars & clubs
1,050+ hotels Vending machines
Institutions (1,088 schools, 42 hospitals, 3 main airline
caterers, prisons, etc.)
6.7%
3.5%
Retail
Foodservice
TURNOVER GROWTH RATE % Y-O-Y; HK$; 2013v2014
FOCUS MARKET – 1 – HONG KONG Seven potential in-market partners are identified for Western Australian firms in Hong Kong
Firm Wellcome Park’N Shop CR Vanguard Dah Chong Hong 759 Stores AEON Stores Convenience Retail Asia
Ownership Dairy Farm International/Jardine Matheson
A.S. Watson/ Hutchison Whampoa
CRE/China Resources (SOE; China)
Dah Chong Hong/ CITIC Pacific/CITIC (SOE; China)
Private; Hong Kong (Lam Wai Chun)
AEON (Japan) Fung Group
Website www.wellcome.com.hk www.parknshop.com www.crvanguard.com.hk www.crc.com.cn
www.dch.com.hk
www.759store.com www.aeonstores.com.hk www.aeon.info
www.circlek.hk/en www.cr-asia.com
Annual sales (in HK)
$2.2b+ $2.8b ~$0.8b (food/FMCG) N/A N/A $0.8b $0.4b
Food store formats
Supermarkets 318 Convenience 921 Health & Beauty 369 Restaurants 676
Supermarkets 260+ Convenience
Supermarkets Convenience
Supermarkets Grocery 247+ Dept. stores (w/food) 8 Supermarkets 5
Convenience 600+ Bakery
# of stores Wellcome 280+ Marketplace 31 7-Eleven 900+ Olivers the Delicatessen ThreeSixty
ParknShop 175 PnS Superstore 50+ PnS Taste 10 PnS Fusion 14
CR Vanguard 100+ VanGo 79
DCH Food Mart 80+ DCH Food Mart Deluxe
759 Stores 247+ AEON 13 Circle K Saint Honore Cake
Store fascia
45 Source: Coriolis from a wide range of sources
POTENTIAL IN-MARKET PARTNERS – HONG KONG 2015 or as available
FOCUS MARKET – 2 – JAPAN Japan has a robust and well-developed food retailing and foodservice sector
$331
$232
$310
$93
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Turnover Purchases
46 Source: Coriolis from a wide range of sources
TURNOVER & PURCHASES US$b; 2014
ESTIMATED WHOLESALE FOOD & FMCG PURCHASES US$b; 2014
Foodservice Retail
Convenience $112.9
$93.0
Small grocers $27.5
Specialists $22.5
Foodservice $93.0
Other grocery $16.6
$287.1
Supermarkets $102.3
Online $5.3
Foodservice
Retail 711,000 restaurants, bars & clubs, 87,927 hotels/motels/etc., vending machines,
institutions (schools, hospitals, airline
caterers, prisons, etc.)
0.0%
2.4%
Retail
Foodservice
TURNOVER GROWTH RATE % Y-O-Y; JPY; 2013v2014
FOCUS MARKET – 2 – JAPAN Eight potential in-market partners are identified for Western Australian firms in Japan
47 Source: Coriolis from a wide range of sources
POTENTIAL IN-MARKET PARTNERS – JAPAN 2015 or as available
Firm AEON Retail Seven & I Holdings Uny Group Holdings Izumi Co. Ltd. Life Arcs Lawson Family Mart
Ownership Japan; listed Japan; listed Japan; listed Japan; listed Japan; listed Japan Japan; listed Japan; listed
Website www.aeon.info www.maxvalu.co.jp www.daiei.co.jp www.ministop.co.jp
www.7andi.com www.sej.co.jp www.itoyokado.co.jp
www.unygroup-hds.com www.uny.co.jp www.circleksunkus.jp
www.izumi.co.jp
www.lifecorp.jp www.arcs-g.co.jp www.lawson.jp
www.family.co.jp
Annual sales Total/Food
US$61.2b US$16.8b
US$49.1b US$17.5b
US$9.0b US$6.7b
US$4.7b US$2.1b
US$4.7b US$3.8b
US$4b US$4b
US$17.4b US$14b
Food store formats
Hypermarket Supermarket Department stores Convenience (3.4% share) Pharmacy/HBC
Convenience 17,900 (41% share) Supermarkets 185 Department stores
Supermarket Convenience (9.6% share) HBC Foodservice
Supermarkets Hypermarkets Malls
Supermarket Convenience 12,254 (20.5% share)
Convenience 9,975 (19% share)
# of stores 1,882 18,262 226 102 239 290 12,254 9,975 (JP) 16,970 (Global)
Store fascia
FOCUS MARKET – 3 – SINGAPORE Singapore has a robust and well-developed food retailing and foodservice sector
$5.6
$3.9
$6.3
$1.9
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Turnover Purchases
48 Source: Coriolis from a wide range of sources
TURNOVER & PURCHASES US$b; 2014
ESTIMATED WHOLESALE FOOD & FMCG PURCHASES US$b; 2014
Foodservice Retail
$1.9 $3.9
Online $0.1
Traditional grocery $0.3
Supermarket $2.2
Convenience $0.4
Wet markets, etc. $0.7
Foodservice $1.9
Department stores $0.3
Petrol stations $0.1
Foodservice
Retail 6,500 restaurants,
hawker stalls, hotels, vending machines,
institutions (schools, hospitals, airline caterers,
prisons, etc.)
3.0%
5.0%
Retail
Foodservice
TURNOVER GROWTH RATE % Y-O-Y; HK$; 2013v2014
FOCUS MARKET – 3 – SINGAPORE Four potential in-market partners are identified for Western Australian firms in Singapore
Firm NTUC Fairprice Cold Storage Sheng Siong Prime Supermarkets
Ownership National Trade Union Council (Singapore)
Dairy Farm International (Hong Kong)
Listed; Singapore Private; Singapore
Website www.fairprice.com.sg www.ntuc.org.sg
www.coldstorage.com.sg www.dairyfarmgroup.com
www.shengsiong.com.sg www.allforyou.sg
www.primesupermarket.com
Annual sales US$1.83b US$1.55b US$0.55b US$0.2b
Store formats Supermarket Hypermarket Convenience (Cheers; 139) Online
Supermarket (Cold Storage, Marketplace) Hypermarket Convenience (7-Eleven; 502) Online
Supermarkets Online
Supermarkets
# of stores 285 848 38 19
Store fascia
49 Source: Coriolis from a wide range of sources
POTENTIAL IN-MARKET PARTNERS – SINGAPORE 2015 or as available
DOCUMENT STRUCTURE
What is the global situation?
What is the strategic situation in the market?
In this environment, what is the opportunity for Western Australia?
Who are the potential in-market partners?
Who are the key firms in Western Australia capable of delivering?
50
IDENTIFIED WA COMPANIES
AUSTRAL FISHERIES
CORREIA FISHING CO.
MARETERRAM
ADDRESS: 50 Oxford Cl, West Leederville, WA 6017 ADDRESS: 2 Mews Road, Fremantle ,WA 6160 ADDRESS: Unit 4, 24 Mews Road, South Fremantle, WA 6160
PHONE: 08 9217 0100 PHONE: 08 9335 6674 PHONE: 08 9335 1311
WEBSITE: www.australfisheries.com.au WEBSITE: www.correiafishingco.com.au WEBSITE: www.mareterram.com.au
51 Coriolis from a wide range of sources
MG KAILIS GROUP
RICCIARDI SEAFOODS & COLDSTORES
SEAFARMS GROUP
ADDRESS: 50 Mews Road, Fremantle, WA 6160 ADDRESS: 3 Darkan Avenue, North Coogee, WA 6163 ADDRESS: Level 11, 225 St George’s Tce, Perth, WA
PHONE: 08 9239 9239 PHONE: 08 9430 4677 PHONE: 08 9321 4111
WEBSITE: www.mgkailisseafood.com.au www.kailis.com.au
WEBSITE: www.ricciardiseafoods.com.au WEBSITE: www.seafarmsgroup.com.au
WA SEAFOOD EXPORTERS
ADDRESS: 9/12 Hutton St, Osborne Park, WA 6017
PHONE: 08 9444 6999
WEBSITE: www.waseafoods.com.au
AUSTRALIA Coriolis Australia Pty Ltd
PO Box 5831 St Georges Terrace
Perth, WA 6831 Australia
+61 8 9468 4691
NEW ZEALAND Coriolis (New Zealand) Limited
PO Box 90-509 Victoria Street West
Auckland, 1142 New Zealand
+64 9 623 1848
www.coriolisresearch.com
Coriolis is the leading Australasian management consulting firm specialising in the wider food value chain. We work on projects in agriculture, food and beverages, consumer packaged goods, retailing & foodservice. In other words, things you put in your mouth and places that sell them. WHERE WE WORK We focus on the Asia Pacific region, but look at problems with a global point-of-view. We have strong understanding of, and experience in, markets and systems in Australia, China, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand, the United Kingdom and the U.S. We regularly conduct international market evaluations and benchmarking. WHAT WE DO We help our clients assemble the facts needed to guide their big decisions. We develop practical, fact-based insights grounded in the real world that guide our clients decisions and actions. We make practical recommendations. We work with clients to make change happen. We assume leadership positions to implement change as necessary. HOW WE DO IT All of our team have worked across one-or-more parts of the wider food value chain, from farm-to-plate. As a result, our recommendations are grounded in the real world. Our style is practical and down-to-earth. We try to put ourselves in our clients’ shoes and focus on actions. We listen hard, but we are suspicious of the consensus. We provide an external, objective perspective. We are happy to link our fees to results. WHO WE WORK WITH We only work with a select group of clients we trust. We build long term relationships with our clients and more than 80% of our work comes from existing clients. Our clients trust our experience, advice and integrity.
Coriolis advises clients on growth strategy, mergers and acquisitions, operational improvement and organisational change. Typical assignments for clients include… FIRM STRATEGY & OPERATIONS We help clients develop their own strategy for growing sales and profits. We have a strong bias towards growth driven by new products, new channels and new markets. MARKET ENTRY We help clients identify which countries are the most attractive – from a consumer, a competition and a channel point-of-view. Following this we assist in developing a plan for market entry and growth. VALUE CREATION We help clients create value through revenue growth and cost reduction. TARGET IDENTIFICATION We help clients identify high potential acquisition targets by profiling industries, screening companies and devising a plan to approach targets. DUE DILIGENCE We help organisations make better decisions by performing consumer and market-focused due diligence and assessing performance improvement opportunities. EXPERT WITNESS We provide expert witness support to clients in legal cases and insurance claims. We assist with applications under competition/fair trade laws and regulations.