In 2005 February was a “normal” winter.Boris Winterhalt er, 2009 ‡ Climate has always varied and very effectively influenced the rise and fall of civilizations during past millennia

Boris Winterhalter, 2009

In 2005 February was a “normal” winter.


� Climate has always varied and very effectively influencedthe rise and fall of civilizations during past millennia.

� Our Earth is not going under, no matter what Al Gore hasto say, and there is nothing wrong with our climate.

� The Arctic Ocean is not losing its ice.

� It is the Sun that regulates our climate not CO2.

� Increasing energy consumption means higher prices

� so don't waste

The Climate Summit in December in Copenhagenis politics not science.


The Thames in London froze often over during theLittle Ice Age - painting from 1677


The Arctic Ocean is not losing its ice.


Satellite images in 2007 and 2008, showing an increase in ice cover. The ice loss prior to 2008 was due to a switch in the PDO index. Duringprevious years currents pressed through the Bering Strait while warmsurface waters from the Atlantic were easing into the SE Arctic Ocean.


The general current pattern in theArctic Ocean

Blue line denotes surface currents, black linesdenote Pacific waters, 50-200 m and red Atlanticwater inflow and intermediate layer 200-1700 m.

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation index refers tothe surface water temperatures in the northernPacific Ocean. For a description of PDO, see: http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/ Note! The positive value around 1958 is relatedto a strong el Niño.


http://royalsociety.org/WorkArea/DownloadAsset.aspx?id=5591

� Misleading argument 1 : The Earth's climate is always changing and nothing to do with humans.

� Misleading argument 2 : Carbon dioxide only makes up a small part of the atmosphere and socannot be responsible for global warming.

� Misleading argument 3 : Rises in carbon dioxide levels are due to increased temperatures.

� Misleading argument 4 : Observations of temperatures taken by weather balloons and satellitesdo not support the theory of global warming.

� Misleading argument 5 : Computer models predicting climate are unreliable and based on aseries of assumptions.

� Misleading argument 6 : It's all to do with the Sun - for example, there is a strong link betweenincreased temperatures on Earth with the number of sunspots on the Sun.

� Misleading argument 7 : The climate is actually affected by cosmic rays.

� Misleading argument 8 : The scale of the negative effects of climate change is often overstatedand there is no need for urgent action.


The Earth's climate is alwayschanging and this has nothing to dowith humans.

ARGUMENT ONE

Humans do alter local and regionalclimates through environmentalhusbandry, e.g. changes in landusage, emission and pollution,urbanisation and over-population.

WRONG

Graph to the left, showing the influence of urbanheat island effect (UHI) on temperature relative topopuplation size, was produced by JamesGoodridge, retired state climatologist of California.


ARGUMENT TWO

Carbon dioxide only makes up a small part of the atmosphereand so cannot be responsible for global warming.

Carbon dioxide is a potent greenhouse gas,but by no means comparable to water vapor,which is by far the most important ghg.

EXPLAIN


ARGUMENT THREE

Rises in the levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are the result ofincreased temperatures, not the other way round.

TRUE

According to ice coregas analyses the airtemperature changesfirst and is followed by achange in CO2 with alag of several hundredyears due to slowemission or absorptionof the gas by theoceans. Emissions fromburning of fossil fuelshave a minor influenceon atmospheric CO2.

Graph above shows the annual lag of CO2 following temperature


ARGUMENT FOUR

Observations of temperatures taken by weather balloons and satellitesdo not support the theory of global warming.

TRUE

The problem is thatmodel simulations ofupper tropospherictemperatures do notagree with actualmeasurements overseveral decades.

Douglass D.H et al. 2007. A comparison of tropical temperature trends with model predictions. Int. J. Climatol. DOI: 10.1002/joc.1651


ARGUMENT FIVE

Computer models which predict the future climate are unreliableand based on a series of assumptions.

TRUE

Computer models, although of very great complexity can notmimic to any level of reliability the extremely complex processesregulating global climate.

They are not able to duplicate past climate changes like, e.g. theMedieval Warm Period and the variable climates during the LittleIce Age.


ARGUMENT FIVE continued

Because of the ambiguity inthe solutions betweendifferent global coupledclimate models the IPCC hasresolved the problem byaveraging the data instead ofchoosing the most probablemodel.


ARGUMENT SIX

It's all to do with the Sun - for example, there is a strong link betweenincreased temperatures on Earth with the number of sunspots on the Sun.

TRUE?Variations in solar magnetic activityare expressed in the numbers ofvisible sunspots.

Two Danish researchers Eigil Friis-Christensen and Knud Lassenwondered why there seems to be aconnection between sunspots andtemperature, but correlation varies.

In 1991 they finally reported that itis not the number of sunspots butthe length of the solar cycle thatcorrelates with temperature andthat sunspots are just a proxy forthe actual solar influence on ourclimate.


ARGUMENT SIX continued

There are still many open questions on the possible mechanisms,but solar researchers are now predicting a cooling climate withthe dwindling solar activity and the very much delayed awakeningof the next solar cycle 24. If the current solar and climatic trendsfollow the historical observations as recorded during the Maunderand Dalton minima, then it is highly probable that we are facing atleast several decades of cooling climates.

The director, Dr Habibullo Abdusamatov of solar studies at thePulkova Observatory in St Petersburg, Russia, has stated that itis highly possible that Earth will face a new Maunder-typeminimum with cold climates stretching beyond 2050. He alsopoints out that even a drastic increase in atmospheric CO2 is notpotent enough to influence the development.


Timo Niroma drew thegraph above comparing theinitial cycles (3-4) of theDalton-minimum with the extended quietness of cycle23 its predecessor cycle 22.

The similarity between thecycles could imply acooling of the climate forat least several cycles intothe future.

ARGUMENT SIX continued

There are still many open questions on thepossible mechanisms, but solar researchers arenow predicting a cooling climate with thedwindling solar activity and the very much delayimmergence of the next solar cycle 24. If thecurrent trend follows that observed during theMaunder and Dalton minima then it is highlyprobable that we are facing several decades ofcooling climates.


ARGUMENT SEVEN

The climate is actually affected by cosmic rays. POSSIBLY

The theory presented by Dr HenrikSvensmark, the director of solar studiesat the Danish Space Agency, builds onthe idea that an active Sun limits theamount of high energy galactic cosmicradiation reaching our atmosphere.

This could limit ionisation ofcondensation nuclei in the lowertroposphere. This would cause adecrease in low level clouds, whichwould lead to increasing surfacetemperatures and visa versa.

Svensmark had also calculated that a 3% decrease in low altitudeclouds would easily compensate for the observed recent global warmingand a very active Sun during the past century.


ARGUMENT EIGHT

The scale of the negative effects of climate change is often overstatedand there is no need for urgent action.

TRUE

There has been an alarming tendency to blame hurricanes, floods, droughts and even"tsunamis" on global warming.

According to the leading hurricane specialist at NOAA, Chris Landsea, there has beenno indication of increasing storminess or severity during the entire time that hurricaneactivity has been monitored. He resigned because his views were not adhered to.

On September 8, 1900 the city of Galveston was destroyed by a category 4 hurricane.On the other hand the devastation of New Orleans was not due to the severity ofhurricane Katrina but due to failure of the city leaders to strengthen the flood dams thatwere scheduled for repair already 50 years prior.

Floods and droughts have always been around in various parts of the World.Devastating damage caused by floods to property and life can mainly be blamed onpoor infra structure and population increase. Droughts are common place in many partsof the World and likewise may lead to great suffering in densely populated areas.


The very strong el Niño of 1998 raised momentarily global temperatures. After that thepreviously rising trend in global temperatures has dwindled to nil.

http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/

Where has the scarry warming vanished?


Plant growth depends on atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration.Furthermore, a higher CO2 improves water uptake.

Documents

In 2005 February was a “normal” winter.Boris Winterhalt er, 2009 ‡ Climate has always varied and very effectively influenced the rise and fall of civilizations during past millennia