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Improving the accuracy of the measurement of poverty and
well-being: the supplemental
poverty measure for the United States Expert Meeting on
Measuring Poverty and Inequality
United Nations Economic Commission on Europe29 - 30 November
2018
Trudi RenwickAssistant Division Chief for Economic
Characteristics
Social, Economic and Housing Statistics DivisionU.S. Census
Bureau
This presentation was prepared for UNECE Expert Meeting on
Measuring Poverty and Inequality. It was developed to promote
research and advancements in our understanding of poverty
measurement. In that spirit and to encourage discussion and
thoughtful feedback at early stages of our work, this presentation
has undergone a more limited review than official Census Bureau
reports. All views and any errors are solely those of the author
and do not necessarily reflect any official position of the Bureau.
All comparative statements in this presentation have undergone
statistical testing, and, unless otherwise noted, all comparisons
are statistically significant at the 10 percent significance level.
Do not cite or distribute without author permission.
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2
First Census Bureau Report on Poverty: 1967
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Criticisms of the Official Poverty Measure
• The official measure does not account for:
• Provision of in-kind benefits
• Necessary expenses (taxes, health care, work)
• Changes in family or household structure
• Higher standards and levels of living since 1965
• Geographic price differences among regions
3
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• The Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM) rate in 2017 was 13.9
percent.
• The SPM rate for 2017 was 1.6 percentage points higher than
the official poverty rate of 12.3 percent.
• At the state level:• 16 states plus the District of Columbia
for which
SPM rates were higher than official poverty rates
• 18 states with lower rates• 16 states for which the
differences were not
statistically significant.
Supplemental Poverty Measure
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, 2017 and
2018 Annual Social and Economic Supplements.
SPM-1
-
5
-
6
-
7
-
8
-
Official and SPM Thresholds for Units with Two Adults and Two
Children
$24,858
$27,085
$23,261
$27,005
Officialpovertymeasure
Ownerswith a
mortgage
Ownerswithout amortgage
Renters
Supplemental Poverty MeasureThresholds, 2017
Source: Official Poverty Thresholds, , Supplemental Poverty
Measure Thresholds, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), , Geographic
adjustments based on housing costs from the American Community
Survey 2012-2016.
Supplemental Poverty Measure Thresholds for Renters, 2016
SPM-2
-
Comparison of SPM and Official Poverty Estimates: 2017
*Includes unrelated individuals under age 15.Source: U.S. Census
Bureau, Current Population Survey, 2018 Annual Social and Economic
Supplement.
12.3
17.5
11.2
9.2
13.9
15.6
13.214.1
All People Under 18years
18 to 64years
65 yearsand older
SPMOfficial*
SPM-4
(In Percent)
-
Difference in Poverty Rates by State Using the Official Measure
and the SPM: 3-Year Average 2015 to 2017
1 Includes unrelated individuals under age 15.Source: U.S.
Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, 2016 to 2018 Annual
Social and Economic Supplements. SPM-5
-
Change in Number of People in Poverty After Including Each
Element: 2017
-8.3
-3.4
-3.2
-2.9
-1.0
-1.2
-0.5
-0.5
-0.2
-0.2
-0.3
0.2
1.5
4.7
5.6
Refundable tax credits
SNAP
SSI
Housing subsidies
Child support received
School lunch
TANF/general assistance
Unemployment insurance
LIHEAP
Workers' compensation
WIC
Child support paid
Federal income tax
FICA
Work expenses
Medical expenses
Under 18 years 18 to 64 years 65 years and over
-27.0
10.9
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, 2018
Annual Social and Economic Supplement.
Numbers in millions
Social Security
SPM-6
-
Change in Number of People in Poverty After Including Each
Element: 2017
-8.3
-3.4
-3.2
-2.9
-1.0
-1.2
-0.5
-0.5
-0.2
-0.2
-0.3
0.2
1.5
4.7
5.6
Refundable tax credits
SNAP
SSI
Housing subsidies
Child support received
School lunch
TANF/general assistance
Unemployment insurance
LIHEAP
Workers' compensation
WIC
Child support paid
Federal income tax
FICA
Work expenses
Medical expenses
Under 18 years 18 to 64 years 65 years and over
-27.0
10.9
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, 2018
Annual Social and Economic Supplement.
Numbers in millions
Social Security
SPM-6
-
Change in Number of People in Poverty After Including Each
Element: 2017
-8.3
-3.4
-3.2
-2.9
-1.0
-1.2
-0.5
-0.5
-0.2
-0.2
-0.3
0.2
1.5
4.7
5.6
SNAP
SSI
Housing subsidies
Child support received
School lunch
TANF/general assistance
Unemployment insurance
LIHEAP
Workers' compensation
WIC
Child support paid
Federal income tax
FICA
Work expenses
Medical expenses
Under 18 years 18 to 64 years 65 years and over
-27.0
10.9
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, 2018
Annual Social and Economic Supplement.
Numbers in millions
Social Security
Refundable tax credits
SPM-6
-
Change in Number of People in Poverty After Including Each
Element: 2017
-8.3
-3.4
-3.2
-2.9
-1.0
-1.2
-0.5
-0.5
-0.2
-0.2
-0.3
0.2
1.5
4.7
5.6
Refundable tax credits
SSI
Housing subsidies
Child support received
School lunch
TANF/general assistance
Unemployment insurance
LIHEAP
Workers' compensation
WIC
Child support paid
Federal income tax
FICA
Work expenses
Medical expenses
Under 18 years 18 to 64 years 65 years and over
-27.0
SNAP
10.9
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, 2018
Annual Social and Economic Supplement.
Numbers in millions
Social Security
SPM-6
-
Change in Number of People in Poverty After Including Each
Element: 2017
-8.3
-3.4
-3.2
-2.9
-1.0
-1.2
-0.5
-0.5
-0.2
-0.2
-0.3
0.2
1.5
4.7
5.6
Refundable tax credits
SNAP
SSI
Housing subsidies
Child support received
School lunch
TANF/general assistance
Unemployment insurance
LIHEAP
Workers' compensation
WIC
Child support paid
Federal income tax
FICA
Work expenses
Under 18 years 18 to 64 years 65 years and over
-27.0
Medical expenses 10.9
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, 2018
Annual Social and Economic Supplement.
Numbers in millions
Social Security
SPM-6
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Impact of Geographic Adjustments on Poverty Rates
13.0
16.1
11.2
16.8
14.1
17.5
12.1 12.8
Inside metropolitanstatistical areas
Inside principal cities Outside principal cities Outside
metropolitanstatistical areas
Location of Residence
NGA MRI
17
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, 2018
Annual Social and Economic Supplement.
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Comparison of SPM and Official Poverty Estimates by Family Type:
2017
*Includes unrelated individuals under age 15.Source: U.S. Census
Bureau, Current Population Survey, 2018 Annual Social and Economic
Supplement.
12.3
5.7
25.126.2
11.2
20.4
13.9
8.7
13.3
26.9
16.3
23.5
All People Married couple Cohabitingpartners
Female referenceperson
Male referencePerson
Unrelatedindividuals
SPMOfficial*
(In Percent)
The difference between the official poverty rate and the SPM
rate for female reference person families was not statistically
significant.
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SPM uses changes in consumer spending on food, shelter, and
clothing to update the thresholds instead of inflation.
Comparing thresholds: 2009-2016 Comparing poverty rates:
2009-2016
19
22,500
23,000
23,500
24,000
24,500
25,000
25,500
26,000
26,500
27,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Average Two-Adult, Two-Child SPM Poverty Thresholds by Concept:
2009-2016
Quasi-Relative SPM Anchored-2009
Source: Quasi-relative and anchored thresholds based on author's
adjustment of BLS-DPINR's SPM Research Thresholds based on
2005-2016 Consumer Expenditure Survey data. Relative thresholds
based on Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic
Supplements, 2010-2017.
13
14
14
15
15
16
16
17
17
18
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Percent
SPM Poverty Rates by Concept: 2009-2016
Quasi-Relative SPM Anchored-2009
Source: Quasi-relative and anchored thresholds based on author's
adjustment of BLS-DPINR's SPM Research Thresholds based on
2005-2016 Consumer Expenditure Survey data. Relative thresholds
based on Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic
Supplements, 2010-2017.
-1.1
-0.4
Quasi-RelativeSPM
Anchored - 2009
Source: Fox (2017) Anchored and Relative: Supplemental
Thresholds for the SPM. U.S. Census Bureau.
https://www.census.gov/library/working-papers/2017/demo/SEHSD-WP2017-50.html
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SPM Uses Three Thresholds: Renters, Owners with a Mortgage and
Owners without a Mortgage
13.912.5
14.114.415.5 15.9
Overall Owners without aMortgage
Aged 65+
SPM Using Wtd Average Thresholds
20
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, 2018
Annual Social and Economic Supplement.
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Is it confusing to have two poverty measures?
21
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22
https://www.kff.org/interactive/seniors-in-poverty/
https://www.kff.org/interactive/seniors-in-poverty/https://www.kff.org/interactive/seniors-in-poverty/
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Media likes to focus on state changes
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Timeline for SPM Changes
24
2018 2019 2020 2021
September 2020 – September 2021Research showing the impact of
the changes on 2019 SPM rates - including research file.
September 2021Release of SPM report using new methodology
February 2018 – September 2021Working papers and conference
presentations discussing potential changes to the measure
Spring 2019Expert Meeting
September 2020ITWG decides on changes
Spring 2020Expert Meeting
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Contact Information
• Trudi Renwick
– [email protected]
– 301-763-5133
– CENSUS.GOV
25
mailto:[email protected]
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