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Improving Achievement, Closing Gaps, and
Preventing Dropouts:
Where are we? What do we need to do?
Kilian Betlach, Policy & Practice AssociateThe Education Trust—West
Orange County Dropout Prevention SummitAnaheim, CA
February 19, 2009
2009 by The Education Trust-West
California is hobbled by twin
achievement gaps…
…first, between our state and the
rest of the nation
2007 NAEP Grade 4 Reading Average Overall Scale Scores by State
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
Ave
rage
Sca
le S
co
re California
Source: National Center for Education Statistics, NAEP Data Explorer, http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/nde/
Proficient Scale Score: 238
National Average
2007 NAEP Grade 4 Reading Average Latino Scale Scores by State
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
Ave
rag
e S
ca
le S
co
re
National Average
California
Source: National Center for Education Statistics, NAEP Data Explorer, http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/nde/
Proficient Scale Score: 238
2007 NAEP Grade 8 Math Average Overall Scale Scores by State
Source: National Center for Education Statistics, NAEP Data Explorer, http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/nde/
Proficient Scale Score: 299
California
National Average
2007 NAEP Grade 8 Math Average African American Scale Scores by State
Source: National Center for Education Statistics, NAEP Data Explorer, http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/nde/
Proficient Scale Score: 299
National Average
California
Let’s be clear.
It’s not our demographics.
2007 NAEP Grade 8 Math Average White Scale Scores by State
Source: National Center for Education Statistics, NAEP Data Explorer, http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/nde/
Proficient Scale Score: 299National Average
California
…second, between low-income
students and students of color and
their more advantaged peers
CALIFORNIA
8th grade ELA, CST 2008
By Ethnicity
Source: California Department of Education, 2008
Source: California Department of Education, 2008
CALIFORNIA
11th grade ELA, CST 2008
By Ethnicity
Source: California Department of Education data, 2008
Source: California Department of Education, 2008
CALIFORNIA
Algebra I (Grades 7-11), CST 2008
By Ethnicity
Source: California Department of Education data, 2008
Source: California Department of Education, 2008
CALIFORNIA
Algebra II (Grades 7-11), CST 2008
By Ethnicity
Source: California Department of Education data, 2008
Source: California Department of Education, 2008
By the end?
CALIFORNIA
Reported Graduation Rates, Class of 2007
Source: California Department of Education data, 2008
CALIFORNIA
More Accurate Graduation Rates, Class of 2007
Source: Education Trust-West Analysis of CDE data, using the Manhattan Institute methodology
What are they graduating with?
COLLEGE-READY GRADUATION RATES
9th graders graduating four years later with A-G mastery*
Class of 2007
Source: ETW’s Raising the Roof, 2008, Manhattan Institute Methodology
*Students who have completed the A-
G course sequence with a “C” or better
in each class.
COLLEGE READY GRADUATION RATES
CALIFORNIA
Class of 2004-Class of 2007
23% 25% 24% 24%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2004 2005 2006 2007
All Students
Source: ETW analysis of CDE data, using Manhattan Institute MethodologySource: ETW’s Raising the Roof, 2008, Manhattan Institute Methodology
COLLEGE READY GRADUATION RATES
CALIFORNIA, By Ethnicity
Class of 2004- Class of 2007
23% 24%
15% 15%
12% 13%
32% 34%
50%55%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2004 2005 2006 2007
All
African AmericanLatino
White
Asian
Source: ETW analysis of CDE data, using Manhattan Institute MethodologySource: ETW’s Raising the Roof, 2008, Manhattan Institute Methodology
CALIFORNIA
4-Year High School Dropout Rate, By Ethnicity
Class of 2007
Source: California Department of Education data, 2008
CALIFORNIA
Grade 12 Dropouts
Class of 2004—Class of 2007
Source: ETW analysis of CDE data, using Manhattan Institute MethodologySource: California Department of Education, 2008
Of Every 100 9th Graders in California:
20 Enroll in
community college
13 Enroll in a 4-year
state university
Class of 2007
Source: California Educational Opportunity Reports: African American and Latino, 2007. UCLA IDEA and UC ACCORD
Of Every 100 African American 9th Graders in
California:
18 Enroll in
community college
9 Enroll in a 4-year
state university
Class of 2007
Source: California Educational Opportunity Reports: African American and Latino, 2007. UCLA IDEA and UC ACCORD
Of Every 100 Latino 9th Graders in California:
17 Enroll in
community college
7 Enroll in a 4-year
state university
Class of 2007
Source: California Educational Opportunity Reports: African American and Latino, 2007. UCLA IDEA and UC ACCORD
It doesn’t have to be this way
Two things we could do right now to better
understand this issue, raise achievement, and
prevent dropouts
1) Prioritize accurate information
Build a comprehensive, longitudinal data
system with unique student identifiers
∆ Bring CALPADS and CALTIDES fully
online
∆ Link to Higher Ed and social
service
∆ Utilize Federal Stimulus money
2) Raise academic rigor for all
students
Align high school graduation requirements
with the UC/ CSU A-G course sequence
Black & Latino Students: Fewer Enrolled in
Necessary A-G Courses by 12th Grade
Source: Finkelstein, N.D. and Fong, A.B. (2008). Course-taking patterns and preparation for postsecondary education in California’s public university system among minority youth. (Issues & Answers Report, REL 2008-No. 035). Washington, DC: US Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Education Evaluation and Regional Assistance, Regional Educational Laboratory West. Retrieved fromhttp://ies.ed.gov/ncee/edlabs
Many Senior Schedules Lack Any Rigor
Student A Student B Student C
• Concert Band
• Library Practice
• Office Practice
• American
Government
• Marching Band
• Teacher Assistant
• Art Fundamentals
• Senior Math
• Teacher Assistant
• Short Story
• Office Practice
• Early Departure
• Early Departure
• Late Arrival
• Concert Band
• Marching Band
• Senior Math
• Office Practice
• Latin American
Literature
• Food Service
• Early Departure
Source: EdTrust—West Transcript Analysis of unnamed Southern California District
The success of San Jose Unified
dispels debilitating myths about
what kids—and adults—can achieve
San José Unified Demographics
• 51% Hispanic
• 28% White
• 13% Asian
• 4% African/American
• 4% 0ther
Hispanic
White
Asian
AfricanAmer
Other
√ 39% Low SES
√ 28% EL
• 87% Spanish Speaking
Source: EdTrust West analysis of California Department of Education data
46%52%
56%
70%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1999 2004 2005 2006
SJUSD Seniors who take at least one AP course
Source: EdTrust West analysis of California Department of Education data
SJUSD Senior AP scores of 3 or higher
44%
57% 61%
78%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1999 2004 2005 2006
748 tests 1197 tests 1254 tests 1277 tests
Source: EdTrust West analysis of California Department of Education data
SJUSD Graduation Rates
Source: Ed Trust West analysis of CA Dept of Ed data, 2007, using Manhattan Methodology
74% 74%69%71%72%77% 73% 73% 73%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
SJUSD
Latino Graduates College-Ready
San Jose vs. California, 1994-2006
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
California San Jose
Source: EdTrust West analysis of California Department of Education data
49%
5%
SJUSD
African American Graduates College-Ready
San Jose vs. California, 1994-2006
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
California San Jose
Source: EdTrust West analysis of California Department of Education data
50%
11%
What about CTE?
A-G, CTE, and Room for Electives
Subject 9th 10th 11th 12th
English English 1 English 2 English 3 English 4
Math Algebra I Geometry Algebra II Prob / Stat
Science Physical
Science
Biology Chemistry Physics
Social Studies World History US History American Govt /
Economics
Foreign
Language
Spanish 1 Spanish 2
CTE Computer
Technology
Computer
Programming 1
Computer
Programming 2
Elective Academic Lit/
Multicultural Ed
Art 1
Elective PE Rest Culinary Arts
The divisions between “college-
ready” and “work-ready” are
increasingly irrelevant and
immaterial.
Ready for Career is Ready for College
Tool and Die Makers
• Algebra
• Geometry
• Trigonometry
• Statistics
Sheet Metal Workers
• Algebra
• Geometry
• Trigonometry
• Technical Reading
Auto Technicians
• Physics
• Force
• Hydraulics
• Friction
• Electrical circuits
Even in Jobs We Don’t Expect…
Plumbing Heating-Air Conditioning
• Algebra
• Plane Geometry
• Trigonometry
• Statistics
• Physics
• Chemistry
• Biology
• Engineering
• Economics
And ALL require
strong fluency
and literacy skills
in English
Construction
and Engineering
• Algebra
• Plane Geometry
• Critical thinking
• Problem Solving
• Reading and Writing
Sources: Plumbing : Shapiro, D., and Nichols, J. Constructing Your Future: Consider a Career in Plumbing,
Heating, Ventilation, Air Conditioning (HVAC) PHCC Auxiliary 2005 downloaded March 13, 3006
http://www.phccweb.org/PDFs/PHCC20pg.pdf, Construction: California Apprenticeship Council Division of
Apprenticeship Standards 2001 Annual Legislative Report Downloaded March 15, 2006
http://www.dir.ca.gov/das/DASAnnualReport2001/LegRep2001.pdf#search='architecture%2C%20construction
%2C%20engineering%20%28ace%20pathway%29%20course%20outline'
For Our Country: Growing Need for Higher Levels
of Education
Projections of Education Shortages and Surpluses in 2012
BAAbove BA
-7,500,000 -6,000,000 -4,500,000 -3,000,000 -1,500,000 0 1,500,000 3,000,000
Less Than High
School
High School
Associates Degree
Some College
Shortage Surplus
Source: Analysis by Anthony Carnevale, 2006 of Current Population Survey (1992-
2004) and Census Population Projection Estimates
Bachelor’s Degree and Above
Ultimately,
good systems always and
aggressively tackle the myth that
“Closing the achievement gap is
unfair…and unachievable.”
May be unfair.
If ours were a just nation, we wouldn’t allow so many of our children to live in
such miserable circumstances.
But it is not un-achievable.
The Education Trust—West
Download this Presentation
www.edtrustwest.org
Oakland, CA
(510) 465-6444