Improving Access to Family Planning Can Promote Food Security in the Face of Ethiopia’s Changing Climate

Study Summary: Modeling Food Security, Population Growth and Climate Change

Photo by Oxfam

Climate change is resulting in rising temperatures and shifts in rainfall patterns that are expected to decrease agricultural productivity in Ethiopia. Currently, many parts of the country are facing acute food insecurity. Rapid population growth will add to this challenge.

Ensuring sufficient food for Ethiopia’s growing population will require new strategies to boost agricultural yields, and to sustain progress in improving access to nutritious foods for Ethiopia’s poorest and most affected populations. This brief reports the result of a study titled “Modeling Climate Change, Food Security and Population”1 that demonstrates how slower population growth, achievable by addressing women’s needs for family planning, can also play a significant role in adapting to climate change and promoting future food security in Ethiopia.

Evaluation PRH

March 2012

Food Insecurity and Climate Change in EthiopiaA recent assessment indicates that much of Ethiopia today is facing serious food insecurity (see Figure 1). In general, food consumption is lower among the poor, those with smaller agricultural plots, and those living in large families.2

The average daily per capita calorie requirement needed to maintain the health of the population in Ethiopia is approximately 2,200. Currently, 60 percent of the population consumes fewer calories than this daily physiological requirement.3

The average daily per capita calorie consumption is about 1,980—a shortfall of about 220 calories per day, on average, compared with internationally recommended norms.

Approximately 7.8 million Ethiopians received food assistance in 2009/10 through the Productive Safety Nets Programme.

2

Climate change will affect agricultural yields, trade, and food prices in ways that are likely to dramatically reduce food consumption in Ethiopia. New research suggests that by 2050, under conditions of a “medium fertility” population growth scenario, Ethiopia will experience an average food consumption shortfall of more than 500 calories per person per day. If there were no climate change, the shortfall would be only around 130 calories per person per day in 2050 (see Figure 2).

Figure 2: Climate change will affect food consumption in Ethiopia

Source: Authors’ calculations

Food requirements

506 kcal per person per day shortfall in 2050

Food consumption with climate change

Dai

ly K

iloca

lori

es p

er P

erso

n

2,500

2,000

1,500

500

1,000

02010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Food consumption without climate changeFigure 1: Food Insecurity in Ethiopia

Source: Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS.NET), January, 2012

1: None or Minimal2: Stressed3: Crisis4: Emergency5: Catastrophe/Famine

Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Sudan

South Sudan

Somalia

Uganda Kenya

Eritrea

Gore

Goba

Harar

Jima

Addis AbabaNek’emte

Gonder

Asela

Arba Minch

Awasa

DeseDebre Markos

Mek’ele

Dolo Ado Camp

Ethiopia is being affected by climate change like other countries in Africa. Food insecurity is exacerbated by climate change. There is growing evidence that agricultural yields around the world are threatened by rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, and other effects of climate change. It is estimated, for example, that due to climate change, maize yields in East Africa may be 22 percent lower by 2030 than would otherwise occur.4

Photo by Ellen Smith

Feeding a family

is a challenge for

women. Food prices

often increase and

sometimes we don’t

have enough to eat,

especially when

there is a shortage of

rainfall.

– Female farmer,SNNPR

3

Population and Food SecuritySlowing population growth can help to attenuate the food insecurity that will be brought on by climate change. Under a “low fertility” population growth scenario, the daily shortfall in calories per person under conditions of climate change would be reduced from 500 with medium fertility to an average of 127 calories per person per day, nearly canceling out the effects of climate change (see Figure 4). This will improve prospects for climate change adaptation and food security efforts to bridge the gap in meeting the food requirements of the poorest and most vulnerable.

Population GrowthEthiopia’s population has grown rapidly in recent years, from 40 million in 1984 to approximately 82 million in 2011. Future population growth will depend in large part on changes in fertility—the average number of children per woman.

Scenarios of future population growth are the “medium fertility” scenario, in which fertility in Ethiopia declines slowly from an average of 4.8 children per woman today to 2.3 children per woman in 2050, the population would reach 194 million (see Figure 3). In the “low fertility” scenario, fertility declines to less than two children per woman on average by 2050, resulting in a population of 154 million.

Figure 3: Ethiopia’s future population under two scenarios

Source: Authors’ calculations

Mill

ions

of P

eopl

e

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

250

200

150

50

100

0

Low fertility scenario

194

154

Medium fertility scenario

Figure 4: Lower fertility would help to reduce per capita calorie shortfall in Ethiopia

Source: Authors’ calculations

Food requirements

127 kcal per person per day shortfall in 2050

Food consumption with climate change low fertility scenario

Dai

ly K

iloca

lori

es p

er P

erso

n

2,500

2,000

1,500

500

1,000

02010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Such fertility declines are feasible, given that currently, 25 percent of married women in Ethiopia report that they either want no more children or want to wait two years before having another child, but are not using contraception.5 The fertility declines of both scenarios would require expanded use of family planning services throughout Ethiopia.

The use of family planning among married women in Ethiopia has grown significantly in recent years—nearly doubling from 15 percent in 2005 to 29 percent in 2011—which coincided with expanded efforts of the Ethiopian government to reach women with family planning information and services through the Health Extension Workers program.

Photo by Alan D. Coogan

The “low fertility” population growth scenario would also result in reducing malnutrition in children under five years of age in the future. Given the effects of climate change on food availability, by 2050 there would be 51 percent fewer underweight children in the “low fertility” population growth scenario than in the “medium fertility” population growth scenario (see Figure 5).

What Can Be DoneMinistries, organizations, and donors should consider population trends and family planning needs in their climate change and food security plans and programs. Family planning should be incorporated as a climate change adaptation strategy and an option that Ethiopia may wish to pursue is to access and seek international climate change adaptation funds for family planning.

Ethiopia’s Growth and Transformation Plan provides strategic direction and guidance in the critical areas of food security, population, and climate change—including the goal of increasing contraceptive use to 65 percent of married women by 2015. This goal would not only help to achieve the “low fertility” population growth scenario, but would also dramatically improve the health and well-being of women and children throughout Ethiopia.

An integrated approach to addressing these interlinked challenges—such as the population, health, environment (PHE) approach—holds promise for meaningful progress. Integrated programs include complementary interventions to address livelihoods, environmental stewardship, health and family planning, gender equity, and youth empowerment.

Funding for this brief was provided by the generous support of the David and Lucile Packard Foundation.

For the full report, visit http://www.cpc.unc.edu/measure/publications/sr-12-69/at_download/document.

1 Moreland, Scott and Ellen Smith. Modeling Climate Change, Food Security and Population. Chapel Hill, NC: MEASURE Evaluation PRH, February, 2012.2 Authors’ calculations based on the International Food Policy Research Institute’s 2009 Ethiopia Rural Household Survey data (http://www.ifpri.org/dataset/ethiopian-rural-household-surveys-erhs).3 Authors’ calculations based on the International Food Policy Research Institute’s 2009 Ethiopia Rural Household Survey data.4 Bailey, Robert. Growing a Better Future: Food Justice in a Resource-Constrained World, Figure 11. Oxford, UK: Oxfam International, June, 2011.5 Central Statistical Agency, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia and ICF Macro. Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey 2011: Preliminary Report, Central Statistical Agency, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia; and MEASURE DHS, ICF Macro: Calverton, Maryland, USA, September, 2011.

Number of malnourished children in 2050

Figure 5: Lowering fertility can reduce child malnutrition

Source: Authors’ calculations

Mill

ions

of U

nder

wei

ght

Chi

ldre

n <5

No Climate Change, Medium Fertility

Scenario

Climate Change, Medium Fertility

Scenario

Climate Change, Low Fertility

Scenario

1.54

2.02

0.98

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

MEASURE Evaluation PRH is funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) through cooperative agreement associate award number GPO-A-00-09-00003-00 and is implemented by the Carolina Population Center at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, in partnership with Futures Group, Management Sciences for Health, and Tulane University. The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the U.S. government.

Our population is increasing rapidly and our

landholding size is diminishing with each

generation. If things continue as usual, feeding our

children and grandchildren will be a challenge. – Kebele leader, SNNP Region

Photo by Yigal Chamish