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Page 2
• National Survey (excluding areas currently held by ISIS)
– March 26 – April 21, 2017
– 1,338 respondents (unweighted 2,020 respondents)
• 293 Baghdad respondents (unweighted 500 respondents)
• 500 South respondents (unweighted 500 respondents)
• 363 West respondents (unweighted 520 respondents, including 200
interviews in Mosul city)
• 184 Kurdistan respondents (unweighted 500 respondents)
– Margin of error on national sample: +/- 2.19
• +/- 4.4% in each region
– Oversamples of those who lived under ISIS
• 200 interviews in the Khazer M1 camp, Ninewa
• 100 interviews in Salahaddin, all lived under ISIS for at least 1 year
• 100 interviews in Anbar, all lived under ISIS for at least 1 year
• Data excluded from national sample, since selected on criteria (not randomly)
The research
Page 3
The Iraq “Dashboard” – Bounce back from historic lowsMetric/survey question Current
%
Change
Jan ‘16
Movement
Country direction, % right, total 39 +29 Much Better
Security, % better, total 60 +26 Much Better
Electricity supply, % better, total 39 +12 Better
Corruption, % better, total 13 +3 Stable
Job opportunities, % better, total 12 +1 Stable
Abadi favorability, % favorable among Shia 46 +15 Better
Abadi favorability, in West 68 +52 Much Better
Sectarianism, % better, total 62 +32 Much Better
Iraq is mostly unified %, total 45 +3 Stable
Sunni/Shia relations, % better, total 84 +40 Much Better
KRG/Baghdad relations, % better, total 22 +18 Better
Kurdish direction, % right, Kurdistan only 43 +15 Better
Page 5
45
41 4137
48
40
31
4134
26
10
3944
50 50 50
44
54
65
5155
65
82
59
0
20
40
60
80
100
Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Nov-13 Apr-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Aug-15 Jan-16 Jun-16 Nov-16 Apr-17
Right direction Wrong direction
Overall country mood reboundsGenerally speaking, do you think that things in Iraq are going in the right direction, or do you think things are going in the wrong direction?
Page 6
39 41
3236 35
64
3
59 5764 62 62
34
95
0
20
40
60
80
100
Total Urban Rural Baghdad South West Kurdistan
Right direction Wrong direction
Optimism in all regions except KurdistanGenerally speaking, do you think that things in Iraq are going in the right direction, or do you think things are going in the wrong direction?
∆ Jan’16 +29 +31 +20 +28 +16 +59 +3
Right direction
Page 7
3
9
9
13
13
14
15
34
41
43
0 10 20 30 40 50
Internally displaced Iraqis
Health care services
Infrastructure, like roads and bridges
Education and schools
High prices
Basic services like electricity and water
Sectarianism
Security
Jobs and unemployment
Corruption
Now, I am going to read you a list of concerns that some people may have. Which TWO of these are the most important for the Iraqi government to address
∆ Jan’16
+3
+5
-12
+5
-8
+4
+6
N/A
N/A
-6
Iraqi priorities shift as security improves
Page 9
5866 59
81
18 1932
120
20
40
60
80
100
Oct-10 May-11 Jan-12 Sep-12 May-13 Jan-14 Aug-14 Apr-15 Dec-15 Aug-16 Apr-17
Favorable Unfavorable
More than 4 in 5 now favorable to ArmyGenerally speaking, do you approve or disapprove of the job Haider al-Abadi is doing as prime minister?Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people, organizations, and things, with 100 meaning a VERY FAVORABLE feeling; 0 meaning a VERY UNFAVORABLE feeling; and 50 meaning not particularly favorable or unfavorable.
Page 10
8195 95 88
10
12 2 3 6
67
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Total Baghdad South West Kurdistan
% Favorable % Unfavorable
+22 +14 +0 +67 +8
Strong ratings for Army, except in KurdistanNow, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people, organizations, and things, with 100 meaning a VERY FAVORABLE feeling; 0 meaning a VERY UNFAVORABLE feeling; and 50 meaning not particularly favorable or unfavorable.
∆ Jan’15, favorable
Page 11
2
2
7
8
10
13
15
63
76
0 20 40 60 80
Political leaders
Tribal leaders
The central government
Religious leaders
Haider al-Abadi
International forces
Peshmerga
Hashd al-Shaabi
Army
Which TWO of the following do you give the most credit for liberating parts of Iraq from ISIS?
Army and PMUs get most of the credit for liberation
Page 12
Credit for liberation, by region
7
43
92
4
20
25
17
7
40
92
2
3
0
93
78
6
6
2
79
91
0 20 40 60 80 100
Haider al-Abadi
International forces
Peshmerga
Hashd al-Shaabi
ArmyBaghdad
South
West
Kurdistan
Which TWO of the following do you give the most credit for liberating parts of Iraq from ISIS?
Page 13
Army seen to represent all
Generally speaking, who do you think the army represents:
0
2
3
7
8
77
0 20 40 60 80
Only Sunnis
A foreign country
A specific political party or leader
Both Shia and Sunni
Only Shias
All Iraqis
Page 14
Only Kurdistan disagrees on army representing all
Generally speaking, who do you think the army represents:
19
11
36
16
2
8
6
83
0
7
2
87
0
5
2
90
0 20 40 60 80 100
A specific political party or leader
Both Shia and Sunni
Only Shias
All IraqisBaghdad
South
West
Kurdistan
Page 16
7490
100
60
2196
28
76
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Total Baghdad South West Kurdistan
% Favorable % Unfavorable
+7 -4 +2 +22 --
Hashd al-Shaabi also now more favorable in WestNow, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people, organizations, and things, with 100 meaning a VERY FAVORABLE feeling; 0 meaning a VERY UNFAVORABLE feeling; and 50 meaning not particularly favorable or unfavorable.
∆ Jan’16, favorable
Page 17Page 17
Strong job approval, but regional tensions apparent
99 96 95
45
96 97
77
13
67
32
59
96
1 3 4
51
4 3
23
85
32
49
41
20
20
40
60
80
100
Baghdad South West K'stan Baghdad South West K'stan Baghdad South West K'stan
Approve Disapprove
Iraqi National Army Hashd al-Shaabi Peshmerga
Generally speaking, do you approve or disapprove of the job Iraq's Army/Hashd al-Shaabi/Pershmerga is doing in the fight against ISIS?
Page 19Page 19
High expectations for ISIS defeat this year
Based on what you know, how long do you think it will take for Iraq to be fully liberated from ISIS?
59
49
7370
18
33
48
20
28
58
42 2 1
18
0
20
40
60
80
Total Baghdad South West Kurdistan
Within one year More than one year Never
∆ Sept.’15 , within one year
+23 +1 +21 +51 +7
Page 20
0
2
4
7
16
20
48
0 20 40 60 80 100
PKK or YPG
Ninewa Guards
Hashd al-Shaari
Peshmerga
Hashd al-Shaabi
The Iraqi police
The Iraqi army
I am now going to read a list of different security forces in Iraq. Based on what you know, which ONE of the following should provide security for areas liberated from or currently occupied by ISIS such as Anbar, Diyala, Ninewa, and Salahaddin?
Most want army in liberated areas for security
The Iraqi Army
Mosul 70%
Ninewa camp 69%
Anbar 70%
Salahaddin 46%
Page 21Page 21
West and Kurds worry about PMU violence
Based on what you know, how concerned are you about members of Hashd al-Shaabi committing violence in liberated areas?
3630
8
55
82
6269
89
45
16
0
20
40
60
80
100
Total Baghdad South West K'stan
Very/Somewhat Little/Not
Based on what you know, how concerned are you about members of the Iraqi Army and Security Forces committing violence in liberated areas?
2518
9
34
6773
81
90
65
30
0
20
40
60
80
100
Total Baghdad South West K'stan
Very/Somewhat Little/Not
Page 22
5
7
7
16
23
40
0 10 20 30 40 50
Remain as it is and deploy to provinces that were notcontested by ISIS
Remain as it is but stay only in contested areas
Remain as it is but return to their home governorates
Completely disband and turn over its weapons
Be given more power as a separate military force
Be dissolved and integrated into the Iraqi Army
Now thinking specifically about Hashd al-Shaabi, what do you think should be done with Hashd al-Shaabi after Iraq is liberated from ISIS.
Most want PMU integration; Kurds/IDPs want them disbanded
West: 20%
Kurdistan: 60%
Ninewa camp: 51%
Page 23Page 23
Divisions on PMUs entering politics
Do you approve or disapprove of Hashd al-Shaabi becoming more involved in the political process by registering new political parties and having candidates in the next elections?
47
6154
49
1
47
35 36
48
96
0
20
40
60
80
100
Total Baghdad South West Kurdistan
Approve Disapprove
Page 24
7481 81 77
3425
18 1622
63
0
20
40
60
80
100
Total Baghdad South West Kurdistan
Approve Disapprove
Broad support for compulsory army, except in NorthDo you approve or disapprove of the Iraqi Army re-instating the policy of compulsory military service for all Iraqi men 18 years and older?
∆ Jan’15 +5 +3 -3 +24 -6Approve
Page 26
9
20
28
29
31
36
42
0 10 20 30 40 50
Treatment of Sunnis by Iraqi Security Forces
Poor economic conditions
Foreign governments
Political parties
Treatment of Sunnis by former Prime Minister Maliki
Sectarian tensions in Iraq
Corruption
Top choice
in West
(52%) and
Kurdistan
(47%)
Which TWO of the following do you blame the most for the rise of ISIS in Iraq:
Most blame corruption, but West and Kurds blame Maliki
Page 27
5
9
19
23
39
0 10 20 30 40
ISIS offered better services than local or centralgovernment
ISIS offered protection from the central governmentand security forces
ISIS offered people money and a better life
ISIS offered people an attractive form of religion
ISIS used threats of violence
Now, I am going to read you a list of potential reasons why ISIS took over so much territory in Iraq over the last few years. Please tell me which ONE of these is the most important reason for why ISIS took over so much territory in Iraq
ISIS successful strategies: intimidation and persuasion
Kurdistan’s first
choice: 32%
Page 28
11
12
24
28
30
36
48
0 10 20 30 40 50
Pressure from family and friends
Treatment by other sects
Injustice from the government
Poor economic situations
Poor government performance
Forced to join
Religious beliefs
Now I am going to read a list of reasons why some Iraqis joined ISIS. Please tell me which TWO you think is the biggest reason some Iraqis joined ISIS?
Religion behind why some joined ISIS
Page 29
Why some joined ISIS, by region
23
46
33
17
39
33
37
26
23
51
14
20
35
41
52
30
21
25
56
44
0 20 40 60
Injustice from the government
Poor economic situations
Poor government performance
Forced to join
Religious beliefsBaghdad
South
West
Kurdistan
Now I am going to read a list of reasons why some Iraqis joined ISIS. Please tell me which TWO you think is the biggest reason some Iraqis joined ISIS?
Page 30
7887 85 86
31
14 116 7
56
0
20
40
60
80
100
Total Baghdad South West Kurdistan
The fight against ISIS has
helped unify the people of
Iraq.
The fight against ISIS has
further divided the people of
Iraq.
The fight against ISIS has helped to unify Iraq
Page 31
58
74
4449
91
40
25
5550
6
0
20
40
60
80
100
Total Baghdad South West Kurdistan
Very/Somewhat Little/Not
Majority concerned about ISIS’s return
Would you say you are very concerned about ISIS and other extremist groups re-emerging in Iraq, somewhat concerned, just a little concerned, or not at all concerned about ISIS and other extremist groups re-emerging to Iraq?
Page 33
2
3
6
9
12
22
22
23
27
76
32
14
7
52
19
5
11
22
7
28
0 20 40 60 80
Education and schools
Infrastructure, like roads and bridges
Sectarianism
Jobs and unemployment
Basic services like electricity and water
Internally displaced Iraqis
Health care services
Corruption
High prices
Security
Mosul Ninewa Camp
Which TWO of these are the most important for the Iraqi government to address:
Ninewa camp, Mosul concerns show stark contrast
Page 34
9
18
21
46
0 20 40 60 80
The currently elected governor
A civilian governor appointed by the primeminister
A civilian governor elected by theprovincial council
A military governor appointed by the primeminister
In Ninewa camp:
plurality do not
choose any
option
Thinking specifically about Ninewa. Which of the following do you think should govern Ninewa until it has been fully liberated and made more stable:
Support for military governor in Mosul
Kurdistan: 55%
Mosul: 59%
Page 35
4
6
7
10
13
21
33
0 10 20 30 40
Major General Najm al-Juburi
Former Governor Atheel al-Nujaifi
Lieutenant General Abdulghani al-Asadi
Governor Nofal Hammadii
Other
Former Minister of Defense Khalid al-Obedi
Counterterrorism Commander AbdulWahhab al-Saedi
Please take a look at the names on this list. Based on what you know, which of the following individuals would do the best job bringing stability to Ninewa?
Who would bring stability to Ninewa? | Mosul & Ninewa camp
Page 36
4
5
6
7
75
0 20 40 60 80 100
Link up with other Sunni provinces to forma larger semi-autonomous region
Becomes its own semi-autonomous regionlike KRG
Join the KRG
Be divided along ethnic and sectarianlines into different provinces
Remain as it currently is
Once Ninewa is liberated which of the following do you think should happen to the governorate:
Outside of Kurdistan, people want Ninewa to stay as is
Kurdistan
24
31
21
9
9
Page 38
75
65
33
59
19
29
63
38
0
20
40
60
80
100
Jan-15 Jun-15 Dec-15 May-16 Oct-16 Apr-17
Approve Disapprove
Majority approve of Abadi’s job againGenerally speaking, do you approve or disapprove of the job Haider al-Abadi is doing as prime minister?
Page 39
93
85
52
64
85 83
33
57
68
48
24
78
28
16 15
18
0
20
40
60
80
100
Jan-15 Jun-15 Dec-15 May-16 Oct-16 Apr-17
Baghdad South West Kurdistan
% that approve
Abadi’s job approval jumps most in WestGenerally speaking, do you approve or disapprove of the job Haider al-Abadi is doing as prime minister?
Page 40
6655 52
39
21 18 16 6 5 6
23 26 30 37
69 69 66
84 88
63
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Ameri Sadr Abadi Obeidi Maliki Allawi Hakim Jabouri Nujaifi Khanjar
% Favorable % Unfavorable
Favorability of leaders | Non-KurdistanNow, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people, organizations, and things, with 100 meaning a VERY FAVORABLE feeling; 0 meaning a VERY UNFAVORABLE feeling; and 50 meaning not particularly favorable or unfavorable.
Δ Jan ’16 -2 +18 +25 +16 0 +7 -3 +1 +4 -3
Page 41Page 41
Majority want to continue in Abadi’s direction
53 55 51
74
18
3328 31
17
77
0
20
40
60
80
100
Total Baghdad South West Kurdistan
I want to continue in the
direction Haider al-Abadi is
taking Iraq.
I want to go in a very different
direction than Haider al-Abadi is
taking Iraq.
∆ Jan’16
+23 -20 +8 -8 +16 -16 +55 -45 +4 0
Page 43
1. Inclusive institutions need to deliver on citizens’ high expectations for the
future.
2. Prosecution of ISIS members and provision of compensation and
psychological support for victims are key priorities.
3. Leaders need to develop a strong vision for the future—fighting
corruption, creating jobs, and achieving long-term reconciliation.
Factors in a Post-ISIS Iraq
Page 44
45
5747 49
15
4838
45 45
81
0
20
40
60
80
100
Total Baghdad South West Kurdistan
Iraq is mostly a unified
country
Iraq is mostly a divided country.
Iraqis split on whether country is unified
∆ Jan’15 unified
+3 +11 -26 +36 +3
Page 45Page 45
Belief that parties need to reconcile, not peopleGenerally speaking, how likely do you think it is that Iraq will see greater cooperation between the political parties in the near future?
3730
38
48
19
59
70
5450
76
0
20
40
60
80
100
Total Baghdad South West Kurdistan
Very/Somewhat Little/Not
Generally speaking, how likely do you think it is that the different sects and ethnicities living in previously occupied ISIS areas will improve relations among themselves?
61
74
6370
17
32
2227 28
70
0
20
40
60
80
100
Total Baghdad South West Kurdistan
Very/Somewhat Little/Not
Page 46
14
19
32
33
36
42
57
65
72
72
72
66
0 20 40 60 80
Decentralizing power to local governments so thatthey rely less on the central government
More cooperation among the political parties
Reducing influence of other countries
Holding a national dialogue on reconciliation thatincludes politicians, religious/tribal leaders, CSOs
Integrating the Popular Mobilization Units into theIraqi Army
Ending sectarian quotas for government positionsand jobs
Very effective Somewhat effective
Now, I am going to read you a list of ways to achieve reconciliation in Iraq. For each one, please tell me if you think it is a very effective way to achieve reconciliation in Iraq, somewhat effective, not very effective, or not an effective way at all to achieve reconciliation in Iraq.
Removing quotas, PMU integration key to reconciliation
Page 47
23
25
28
30
42
47
56
58
61
70
71
80
50
54
63
64
77
87
92
89
91
96
94
97
0 20 40 60 80 100
Creating a new cross-sectarian political party
Giving more power to Prime Minister Abadi
Creating cross-sectarian coalitions between political parties
Holding referendums to determine status of disputed territories
Making all armed groups illegal other than the Iraqi Army, police, and Peshmerga
Launching national dialogue to bring all sects together, decide the future of Iraq
Creating a national program to de-radicalize youth living under ISIS
De-radicalizing imams in mosques
Revising the curriculum in schools to emphasize diversity and coexistence
Creating tougher security measures to prevent sleeper cells in liberated areas
Fighting corruption
Creating more jobs and opportunities for youth
Very important Somewhat important
Now I am going to read you a list of things that some people think are important to make sure that ISIS or other extremist organizations do not re-emerge in Iraq. For each one please tell me if you think that thing is very important to make sure that ISIS or other extremist organizations do not re-emerge, somewhat important, just a little important, or not at all important to make sure that ISIS or other extremist organizations do not re-emerge
Jobs and anti-corruption best way to stop ISIS’s return
Page 48
3
8
8
76
0 20 40 60 80
Grant amnesty to those who come forward and admit theirwrongdoings
Require those found guilty to provide financial compensation tovictims
Offer amnesty to individuals not found guilty of serious crimessuch as murder, rape, or mutilation
Prosecute all accused ISIS detainees
Which ONE of the following do you think should be done to those who committed violent acts on behalf of ISIS?
Iraqis want prosecution for ISIS members
Page 49
6
8
9
9
26
38
0 10 20 30 40 50
Tribes
The federal court
The United Nations and international community
Local justice panels
A special ISIS-related court
Military tribunals
Which ONE of the following would be most effective overseeing the process of prosecuting ISIS members and helping victims of their crimes?
Special courts preferred for prosecution of ISIS members
B’dad 59%
Kurdistan: 43%
Page 50
8
8
8
11
17
32
34
73
0 20 40 60 80
Protect legal rights of children born as a result of sexual violence
Record and make public the stories of all ISIS victims
A monument to those who died fighting ISIS
Assist sexual violence victims reintegrate into their communities
Recognizing the Yezidi genocide
Establish a victims' support organization
Psychological support
Financial compensation
When thinking about the victims of ISIS, which TWO of the following do you think should be done to help these victims?
Helping ISIS’s victims
Kurdistan 52%
Page 51
4
11
13
29
34
0 10 20 30 40 50
Tribal leaders
Religious leaders and mosques
Provincial councils
The United Nations
The central government
Please tell me which ONE of these you MOST trust to distribute compensation to those most harmed by ISIS.
Differing views on who should distribute compensation
South 23%
West 44%
Kurdistan 36%
Page 52
84 8781
94
65
12 13 16 614
0
20
40
60
80
100
Total Baghdad South West Kurdistan
Yes No
High expectations for government compensation
In your opinion, do you think the central government should be required to compensate people who lost property or were injured by ISIS, with the compensation coming from the national budget, even if this means less revenue for salaries and development projects?
Page 54
Mood rebounds a bit in KurdistanGenerally speaking, do you think that things in Kurdistan are going in the right direction, or do you think things are going in the wrong direction?
85
72 7478
65 63
74
6356
43
28
43
9
21 2215
30 2923
33
20
49
68
55
0
20
40
60
80
100
Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Nov-13 Apr-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Aug-15 Jan-16 Jun-16 Nov-16 Apr-17
Right direction Wrong direction
Page 55
49
3943
46
51 49
0
20
40
60
Jul-13 Apr-14 Jan-15 Oct-15 Jul-16 Apr-17
Approve Disapprove
Barzani approval down; split on another term | Kurdistan
Generally speaking, do you approve or disapprove of the job Massoud Barzani is doing as President of Kurdistan?
Generally speaking, do you approve or disapprove of Massoud Barzani serving another term as President of Kurdistan
43
52
0
20
40
60
Approve Disapprove
-3 +5
Δ Jan’16 Total
Page 56
65
8678 80
96
20 615 9
20
20
40
60
80
100
Feb-10 Aug-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Nov-14 May-15 Nov-15 May-16 Oct-16 Apr-17
Kurdistan should become an independent country.
Kurdistan should remain an autonomous region of Iraq.
Kurdish referendum result a certainty | Kurdistan
Now for something different. I'm going to read you some pairs of statements and for each one, I want you to tell me which statement comes closer to your point of view.