Bureau of Transportation Statistics

Importance of the Commodity Flow Survey (CFS) in

Developing the Freight Analysis Framework (FAF)

Annual MeetingTransportation Research Board

January 14, 2015

Michael Sprung

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Freight Analysis Framework (FAF)

• A database of regional freight flows by tons and value for all modes, annual provisional updates, and long-range forecasts

• An assignment of the average number of freight-hauling trucks to individual highway segments on the national network

Distance Band (miles) Percent Cumulative

Percent Percent Cumulative Percent Percent Cumulative

PercentBelow 100 40 40 51 51 7 7100 - 249 16 56 19 71 10 17250 - 499 13 69 11 82 13 29500 - 749 7 76 5 87 9 39750 - 999 6 82 4 90 10 49

1,000 - 1,499 7 89 6 96 22 711,500 - 2,000 4 93 2 98 14 85Over 2,000 7 100 2 100 15 100

Value Weight Ton-Miles

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FAF Databases

Origin-Destination Database• Tons & value • Origin/destination• All modes• Commodity detail• Access with data software or

create subsets using the online data extraction tool

Network Database• Payloads (trucks) on highway

segments• No origin/destination• Truck only• No commodity detail• Access with GIS software

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FAF Origin-Destination Database Details

• Value & weight for all domestic, export, & import shipments

• 8 modes (truck, rail, water, air, multiple modes & mail, pipeline, other & unknown, and no domestic mode)

• 43 Commodity classes (2-digit SCTG codes)

• 123 Domestic regions

• 8 International regions

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FAF Regions

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Major FAF O-D Data Sources

• Commodity Flow Survey (BTS/Census)• TransBorder Freight Data (BTS)• U.S. Merchandise Trade Statistics (Census)• Waterborne Commerce Statistics (USACE)• T-100 Air Traffic Data (BTS)• Census of Agriculture (USDA)• Crude Oil and Natural Gas Annual Data (EIA)• Industry Input-Output Accounts (BEA)• County Business Patterns Data (Census)

Census Commodity Flow Survey (CFS) data:

multimodal domestic shipper based

Multimodal flows of: • Crude petroleum• Natural gas• Petroleum products

Flows associated with industrial sectors of:• Farm-based• Fisheries• Logging• Construction• Retail• Services• Municipal solid waste• Household/business

moves

International flows:• Transborder (all modes)• Deep sea shipping • Air freight

Flow matrix construction & missing flow value

estimation techniques

Multimodal domestic commodity flows with value and weight

Multimodal foreign & domestic commodity flows with value and weight

CFS in-scope flows

CFS out-of-scope flows

FAF Origin-Destination-

Commodity-Mode (ODCM) freight

flow matrix with tons & values

Developing CFS In-Scope FAF Estimates

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- USACE Waterborne Commerce Data- STB Public Use Railcar Waybill Data- Prior years CFS Data

Current year CFS Data

Current year CFS establishment sample counts

Log-linear Modeling

Iterative Proportional

Fitting

Base year FAF ODCM matrix of

freight flows (tons and dollars)

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CFS Share of FAF by Mode

Weight2007 Tons (thousands) CFS Share

Mode of Transportation CFS FAF of FAFTotal, All Modes 12,543,425 18,878,735 66%Truck 8,778,713 13,335,623 66%Rail 1,861,307 2,024,073 92%Water 403,639 654,950 62%Air (including truck and air) 3,611 4,988 72%Pipeline 650,859 1,659,060 39%Multiple modes 573,729 582,861 98%Other and unknown modes 271,567 617,181 44%

Value2007 Value (million $) CFS Share

Mode of Transportation CFS FAF of FAFTotal, All Modes 11,684,872 16,650,594 70%Truck 8,335,789 12,192,831 68%Rail 436,420 573,978 76%Water 114,905 212,000 54%Air (including truck and air) 252,276 357,019 71%Pipeline 399,646 787,458 51%Multiple modes 1,866,723 1,924,679 97%Other and unknown modes 279,113 602,630 46%

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CFS Share of FAF Tonnage by Commodity2007 Tons (thousands) CFS Share

Commodity CFS FAF of FAFTotal, All Commodities 12,543,425 18,878,735 66%Animals and fish 6,150 106,851 6%Cereal grains 514,151 1,475,408 35%Agricultural products 211,890 436,348 49%Animal feed and other products of animal origin 246,436 270,333 91%Meat and preparations 98,413 116,145 85%Milled grain and bakery products 120,023 136,903 88%Other prepared foodstuffs 468,435 539,309 87%Alcoholic beverages and denatured alcohol 114,012 140,872 81%Tobacco products 3,289 4,624 71%Monumental or building stone 28,738 57,469 50%Natural sands 460,085 569,898 81%Gravel and crushed stone 2,039,457 2,263,771 90%Other non-metallic minerals 272,264 375,185 73%Metallic ores and concentrates 76,672 120,451 64%Coal 1,416,187 1,444,753 98%Crude petroleum NA 836,581 0%Gasoline, aviation turbine fuel, and ethanol 959,161 1,005,614 95%Fuel oils 641,894 744,791 86%Other coal and petroleum products 578,188 1,295,016 45%Basic chemicals 412,581 463,156 89%Pharmaceutical products 19,076 20,912 91%Fertilizers 149,600 230,038 65%Other chemical products and preparations 123,537 148,078 83%

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CFS Share of FAF by Commoditycontinued

2007 Tons (thousands) CFS Share

Commodity CFS FAF of FAFPlastics and rubber 186,392 224,336 83%Logs and other wood in the rough 107,869 517,410 21%Wood products 323,773 416,536 78%Pulp, newsprint, paper, and paperboard 145,380 162,616 89%Paper or paperboard articles 82,233 105,157 78%Printed products 51,435 55,453 93%Articles of textiles or leather 46,728 70,178 67%Non-metallic mineral products 1,156,790 1,392,666 83%Base metal in primary or semi-finished forms 364,940 422,247 86%Articles of base metal 131,924 205,439 64%Machinery 66,728 185,914 36%Electronic and other electrical equipment 47,528 78,108 61%Motorized and other vehicles 133,126 190,635 70%Transportation equipment 6,815 8,361 82%Precision instruments and apparatus 5,668 7,440 76%Furniture, mattresses, and lighting 26,633 50,046 53%Miscellaneous manufactured products 91,844 111,720 82%Waste and scrap 305,878 1,324,523 23%Mixed freight 300,922 342,411 88%Unknown 583 205,034 0.3%

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Moving Forward

BTS• 2012 benchmark O-D data by commodity and mode• Annual provisional updates

FHWA• Long range forecasts of O-D • Network assignment of truck flows

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Future Issues

• Integrating CFS microdata

• Improving methods for annual updates

• Greater geographic detail

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Upcoming Releases

• 2013 annual provisional update (based on FAF3) – March 2015

• CFS Microdata file – June 2015

• FAF4 O-D data benchmarked to 2012 CFS – Fall 2015

• Long-range forecasts through 2045, network assignment, and highway flow maps – early 2016

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Thank You

For additional information on BTS programs and products visit: www.bts.gov

For additional information on USDOT freight data programs and products visit: www.freight.dot.gov

Without Data

It’s Just An Opinion.

Michael Sprungmichael.sprung@dot.gov(202) 366-9047