Implications of going “Beyond” Climate Science

Eric J. BarronNational Center for Atmospheric

ResearchMarch 26, 2009

A Few StatementsA large human population striving for a higher standard of living = impact from our land use, energy use, and waste products

Because human impact is global, the notion of “refugia” (protected areas) will be very difficult to sustain – instead we are on a path of “Earth management” - moving rapidly from a “refugia” approach to one of “all places managed” (our decisions will impact all places)

U.N.

A Few StatementsOur response to change will include a combination of adaptation (adjusting to change) and mitigation (actively working to prevent change) – but we don’t know the “balance” that is needed or workable

Without a deliberate approach to environmental intelligence we will be ineffective or at least hit and miss in our decisions.

Alaska CoastalVillage Commission

A Few More StatementsWe need a rational approach: simultaneously protect life and property, promote economic vitality, and be good stewards of the environment

We know that we have a problem, and neither the robust philosophical underpinnings (what is a “safe” amount of climate change) nor the Earth management sciences are in place.

The prospects of climate change forces us to confront the importance of each of these statements

Yet, ready or not, we are about to jump beyond climate scienceThe Science is settledFocus on mitigation strategiesThe investment in climate sciences is enough to make the decisions we need to make My view – big mistake to think this way:5 major areas that we need to address

(1) We need a true Climate Services function to enable effective response“Services” function if :– Significant linkages exist between climate and

human endeavors– Characterization of uncertainties is deliberate– Access to authoritative, credible and useful

information is a key part of the service function

– Users and providers recognize each others needs and limitations

– Users are capable of responding to useful information

An Evolving Status - Climate Service

Write only memoryOver the transomDirected tosses over the transomProduct design and assessmentUser-provider partnership

Climate Services NeedsBased on what data and authority will we move the Alaska coastal village (and to where) that is subject to winter wave energy as sea ice disappears?Should the Forest Service replant pine trees (destroyed by pine bark beetle infestation), plant a resistant species, plant a new species, or do nothing?What authoritative voice will be utilized to renegotiate the Colorado River compact?Whose data or model output will be used to decide the management balance between preservation, hydro power and the salmon industry in Washington river systems and then have it survive the first legal challenge?

(2) We need to deliberately expand the family of forecasting elements

Our ability to anticipate is what makes knowledge powerful to societyProtect Life and PropertyPromote Economic VitalityImprove Environmental Stewardship Promote Fundamental Understanding

Bring the discipline of forecasting to a wider family of products

A Natural Expansion is Occurring

WeatherSevere eventsPollenUV alertsPollution alertsEl Nino

The discipline of forecasting – the strength of the weather and climate communities – has potential as a tremendous contribution

An Example

Human Health– Clear tie to weather and climate

Distribution and timing of vectors, “over-wintering” (e.g. mosquitoes), incubation periods, availability of hosts, food availability for hosts, contact with human populations, etc.Heat waves, air pollution, etc.

– Medical response tends to be “point of service” – reacts to incoming cases (almost no discipline of forecasting)

– Therefore, real potential if we can design monitoring algorithms or predictive capability

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Potential to Forecast – PA county correlation between Lyme Disease cases and warm days in fall from the prior year (also correlates with fall snow cover in the prior year)

(3) We must invest seriously in the stage 2 sciences

Always the groomsmen and never the groom – Human dimensions of global change– So-called impact and assessment sciences

We are either focused entirely on reducing uncertainties in climate prediction or focused on a call to action to respond to the dangers of climate changeMuch of the science in between is inadequateThe coupling of the physical sciences, human dimensions and impact sciences is rarely co-located in institutions or funding agenciesMy bet: We will have demonstrable failures with the potential to create stalling points for a decade(s)

Simulated Biomes

Evergreen forestssimulated

Observations: Tundra and permafrost

Southern Grasslandswell simulated

Tundra simulated30,000 years ago

Models tied closely to modern data may be significantly flawed

50 years of intensive climate model development is being coupled to what

amounts to a cottage industry of ecosystem modelers, environment

and human health modelers, etc…..

(even worse for considering multiple stresses)

(4) We need to deliberately tackle the issue of scale and the demand

for an integrated approach

Failure of “cause and effect” approachesRecognition of role of “multiple stresses” in every environment (land use/character, waste products, climate and weather)The impacts and decisions are frequently “place-based” but the drivers of change combine factors that range from global to local

Increase our emphasis on Regional Scales

Mismatch of scales - problems are often regional or local while our observing and modeling efforts tend to be focused on increasing complexity (difficult to manage) at global scalesCurrently incapable of putting a global integrated picture together at a scale suitable for most decision-makersNothing demonstrates this more clearly than water and water resources

Example: The Hurricane and Climate Change Argument

Simulated Cat 4 Hurricane Landfall in Louisiana, October 10 2046

Holland,GaTech 1108 1

Invest in A More Realistic Approach

Create an integrated approach at a tractable scale – a region or a state(s) defined by a set of problemsClimate-quality mesonets and regional climate modelsBuild toward a national and global framework based on advances at a regional scaleSuccess creates a data and model “pull”

(5) We need to evolve from independent climate services & modeling efforts to Environmental “Intelligence” Centers

Imagine – A cohesive regional observation framework– A data management and access system that

places all information at your finger tips– Framework for regional “predictive” model

development expanding the forecasting family– Investment in human dimensions and impact

sciences (water, health, ecosystems) – partnership with and among the physical sciences

– Framework for directed process studies– Vigorous connections with users and decision-

makers

What does this mean for observing?

The extraordinary challenge of “mesonets” for regional decisions and science with the requirement for global observations and analysisThe central role of atmospheric and oceanic observing with the extraordinary challenge of integrating observations across many disciplines in a meaningful way and making that information accessibleCost-effective, climate-suitable, dense observingScience of observing system design with a much broader focus on data assimilation

Commentary

We seem to move between two frameworks– We don’t know enough and we need to better tackle

uncertainties before we take action– We know enough, it is time to focus on action

Better– We know enough to take many actions (the problem

is serious), we have a long way to go before we have confidence in our ability to “manage” the Earth (read – make decisions that impact every place)

We need a new “movement” – climate change you can believe in – Rational

Environmentalism

– You cannot have a large human population without large impact

– Neither calling hoax nor stressing fear have a long shelf life

– No one has added “nicotine” to energy and no one can deny the improvements in Pittsburgh’s air quality without harming the economy

– We know that responding will include adaptation and mitigation – and we don’t know the “balance” that is needed or workable

– We are on a path of “Earth management” and moving rapidly from a “refugia” approach to one of “all places managed”

We need a new “movement” – climate change you can believe in – Rational Environmentalism

– Without a deliberate approach to environmental intelligence we will be ineffective or at least hit and miss.

Observing system design is a critical component of this approach

– Equally important, we need a more rational objective: simultaneously protect life and property, promote economic vitality and be good stewards

– Bottom line: We are focused on scoring points, with us or against us, when we all really know that we have a problem, and neither the robust philosophical underpinnings nor the Earth management sciences are in place.

Opportunity

The steps required to “manage the earth” (adaptation and mitigation) will be

transformative