Working paper No.41

IMPLICATIONS OF G.A.T.T.

ON THE

PHILIPPINE AGRICULTURE SECTOR

by

Doreen Carla E. Erfe

National Economic Development Authority

PHILIPPINES

June 1995

Department of Research Cooperation Economic Research Institute Economic Planning Agency Tokyo, Japan

Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not those of the institution to which the author belongs.

IMPLICATIONS OF G.A.T.T.

ON THE

PHILIPPINE AGRICULTURE SECTOR

Doreen Carla E. Erfe

National Economic Development Authority

PHILIPPINES

IMPLICATIONS OF G. A. T. T . ON THE PHILIPPINE AGRICULTURE SECTOR

Table of Contents

Item Page

I. INTRODUCTION A. Significance of the Study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 B. Objectives of the Study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 C. Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 II. BACKGROUND OF THE G.A.T.T. A. Origin of the G.A.T.T. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 B. Principles of the G.A.T.T. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 C. The System of G.A.T.T. Negotiations . . . . . . . . . 5 D. The G.A.T.T.－Uruguay Round of Negotiations . . . . . . . 5 III. The UR AGREEMENT ON AGRICULTURE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 IV. SCENARIOS FOR THE PHILIPPINE AGRICULTURE A. A Background on the Philippine Agriculture Sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 B. Impact of the G.A.T.T.－UR on Agriculture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 C. Problems/Issues in Implementing Trade Liberalization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 V. POLICY AND SUPPORT MEASURES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 VI. AREAS OF COOPERATION BETWEEN JAPAN AND THE PHILIPPINES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 VII. CONCLUSION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 VIII. BIBLIOGRAPHY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25

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The Implications of GATT on the Phil ippine Agriculture Sector

by Doreen Carla E. Erfe *

I . INTRODUCTION

A. Signi ficance of the Study

One of the major initiatives towards world trade and economic cooperation is the recent signing of the Uruguay Round (UR) of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). The UR global trade accord is seen as the most comprehensive and ambitious of al l round of talks among GATT-member countries since it includes new areas such as agriculture, services , texti les and clothing, intellectual property rights and investment measures . Agreements on agriculture are so far seen to be among the contentious subjects of the UR accord. Worldwide, there have been reports of riots led by farmers who fear of dislocation when cheaper agricultural exports wil l be allowed to enter their countries. Such worries have been evident, for example, in France where farmers dumped tons of potatoes on the streets as a sign of protest and in South Korea where the rice farmers rioted along with the students against the agreements . In the Phil ippines, certain cri tics and peasant organizations have also voiced their concerns about the accord in a less dramatic manner using the media or in peaceful rall ies. Japanese farmers have l ikewise showed their apprehensions on the opening of the country’s markets to cheaper food and agricultural products, speci fically with the scenario of an appreciating yen.

Decisions on agricultural trade such as those

reached under GATT have far-reaching implications considering the importance of this sector to any economy. For most developing countries l ike the Phil ippines, agriculture remains to be the dominant sector of their economies comprising majority of the population and labor force and accounting for a huge proportion of their export earnings. On the other hand, for developed/industrial ized countries such as Japan, this sector is seen to complement the industrial and service sectors as source of labor, raw materials and food. Most agricultural commodities particularly staples such as

-- -- -- -- -- -- - - * Chief Economic Development Specialist, Agriculture Staff , National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA), Phil ippines/ October 1994

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rice and potatoes are provided with protection in terms of trade and production support, thus, are considered highly political products. Protection are accorded to these products usually for national stabil ity and security reasons. In this regard, any move to alter protection on these products surely wil l cause some discords / disagreements.

With the implementation of the GATT－ UR agreement,

there wil l clearly be winners and losers. In the short - run, i t is expected that more individuals or groups wil l be affected as a result o f adjustments to the new policies that wil l be aligned with the accord. Countries dependent on agricultural imports , for instance, wil l suffer from increased prices of commodit ies due to the phasing out of subsidies in producing countries. Also, a number of less competitive firms will close down given the thrust for greater comparative advantage. However, in the long run, the increased competitiveness among GATT- member countries is expected to increase production efficiency, generate more employment and increase farm incomes and bargaining power. Agricultural exporting developing countries l ike the Phil ippines wil l gain from increased access to foreign markets under the GATT. Meanwhile, agricultural industrial countries l ike Japan will benefit from both increased access to foreign markets and reductions in fiscal expenditures tied to farm subsidies.

The GATT－ UR accord wil l definitely impinge on the

economic performance of the agriculture sector of the Phil ippines. A study on the implications of the accord, therefore , becomes imminent to identify the opportunities, problems and programs/actions to be implemented to maximize the gains and minimize the costs of the agreements . Mutual areas of cooperation between the Phil ippines and Japan, one of i ts major trade partners wil l also need to be identified to strengthen existing and future trade arrangements .

B. Objectives of the Study

In general , the study aims to analyze the

implications of the GATT－ UR accord on the Phil ippine agriculture sector. The fol lowing are the specific objectives of the study:

a) to identi fy the potential

benefits /opportunities to the agriculture sector as a result of the GATT;

b) to determine the problems/costs that should be overcome/minimized to optimize the potential benefits from the GATT;

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c) to recommend policy and support measures for agriculture to maximize the benefi ts from GATT; and

d) to identi fy mutual areas of cooperation between

Japan and the Phil ippines to maximize the gains from GATT.

C. Methodology

The study basically involves the review and

documentation of existing l i terature, published reports and other pertinent materials on GATT and the UR agreement. Country reports /studies are also used to cite specific implications of the accord on agriculture. Pertinent data/statistics are further uti l ized to quantify and analyze the impacts of the accord.

II . BACKGROUND OF THE G.A.T.T.

A. Origin of the G.A.T.T .

The General Agreement on Tarif fs and Trade (GATT) was established in 1947 to partly address the clamor of developing countries for more trade and not aid from developed countries. Since official development assistance had not been sufficient to meet the external resource requirements of developing countries, they requested for other forms of support including the opening up of the markets of the developed countries to the former ’s exports . Thus, an enabling treaty to clear the way for world trade was formulated, giving birth to the GATT.

With the GATT, a framework for the orderly conduct

of international trade of goods and services of contracting member countries to each other ’s markets was established. The GATT is, therefore , an accord that spells out a set of rules which provide security and predictabil ity to international trade. I t is l ikewise an institution where trade negotiations take place and trade disputes are settled .

From an initial membership of 23 countries in 1947,

the membership of GATT expanded to 120 countries, including observers. The Phil ippines became a member during the Tokyo Round of Negotiations on 1 January 1980, after i t became clear that i ts goal to become a major exporter of manufactured products was well served by joining the GATT.

B. Principles of the G.A.T.T.

The GATT is general ly governed by four key principles: non-discrimination, reciprocity, transparency

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and special and dif ferential treatment for developing countries .

The principle of non-discrimination is incorporated

in the concept of Most Favored Nation (MFN) treatment. This means that a contracting party must treat other contracting parties the way i t treats i ts “most favored nation” . Tarif f concessions are provided equally among contracting parties . The principle of non-discrimination is also adopted through the concept of national treatment where the contracting party’s own and foreign producers/suppliers are treated equally. This principle is the best defense for smaller developing countries since they wil l be protected from any abuse of power by the larger developed countries for as long as the trading system is functioning.

Reciprocity is manifested through the voluntary

exchange of MFN trade concessions among contracting parties. Thus, the GATT sponsors regular fora whereby its contracting parties multi laterally negotiate to reduce trade barriers and other concessions.

The GATT promotes the use of transparent trade

measures such as tariffs to protect domestic industries . From the very start , it has prohibited the use of non- tarif f measures such as import bans or import l i censing requirements , for protecting local industries. Generally known as quantitative restrictions (QRs), these types of trade protection measures are less transparent than customs duties. Lack of transparency increases the uncertainty among exporters and, therefore, hinders exports and investments from supplying countries .

The last fundamental principle of the GATT is the

special and di fferential treatment accorded to developing countries . This special and dif ferential treatment includes granting developing countries only two thirds of the legal concessions mandated for developed countries which may be done over a longer implementation period. Moreover, the range of policies that is acceptable to GATT is dif ferent, particularly on export and domestic support. Finally, there are special provis ions on assistance with food imports for least developed and food importing countries .

The pursuit o f the above four principles are meant

to support the effort to develop and strengthen a multi lateral trading system, promote security of trade, and reduce restrictions to world trade. These objectives help in the common effort to expand world trade based on the principle of comparative advantage.

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C. The System of G.A.T.T. Negotiations

The GATT employs the Rounds System by bringing the contracting parties together to agree on a package of trade measures. From 1947 to 1994, eight (8) rounds of negotiations were held as fol lows: a) Geneva (1947); b) Annecy (1949) ; c) Torquay (1950); d) Geneva (1956); Dil lon (1961－ 62) ; e ) Kennedy (1962－ 67); f ) Tokyo (1973－ 1979) ; and g) Uruguay (1986－ 1994) . The last round of negotiations would be the focus of this study as this covered the subject topic, agriculture.

D. The G.A.T.T.－ Uruguay Round of Negotiations

The Uruguay Round (UR) of negotiations was launched

in 1986 in Punta del Este in Uruguay. On December 15, 1993, 118 countries reached consensus on the contents of the Final Act in Geneva. The Final Act was signed on April 15, 1994 in Marrakesh, Morocco . The resultant agreement seeks to expand international trade based on comparative advantage through the fol lowing: a) wider and deeper cut in tari ffs on industrial goods by an average of more than one-third; b) progressive l iberalization of trade in agricultural products ; and c) conversion of GATT from a provisional organization into a formal and permanent organization called the World Trade Organization (WTO), which shall have the capacity and stronger powers to enforce GATT rules and disciplines among member-countries.

So far, the UR was the most ambitious of al l GATT

negotiations since it covered a more extensive range of issues. I t included new areas never before included in the other negotiations such as agriculture, services, texti les and clothing, trade-related intel lectual property rights (TRIPS) and trade-related investment measures (TRIMS).

III . THE UR AGREEMENT ON AGRICULTURE

The UR agreement on agriculture is buil t on four areas of commitments, namely: a) market access; b) domestic support ; c ) export subsidies ; and d) sanitary and phytosanitary measures.

Increased Market Access . One of the concessions on

market access involves the replacement of al l non-tarif f measures by their tari f f equivalents. The other is to cut and bind all tarif fs at a minimum of 15 percent for each tarif f l ine and by an average reduction of 36 percent over 6 years for developed countries and a minimum of 10 percent or an average of 24 percent over 10 years for developing countries starting January 1995. The tarif f reduction wil l be undertaken in equal annual installments. Finally, the maintenance of current access

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opportunities and the establishment of minimum access tarif f quotas (at reduced rates) where current access is less than 3 percent of domestic consumption, to be expanded to 5 percent over the implementation period are provided. Least developed countries are not required to reduce their tari ffs .

Reduction of Domestic Subsidies . The agreement also

stipulates that member countries must impose ceil ings on, and reduce, the average trade distorting or production- distorting support (domestic subsidies) being given to producers as measured by the Total Aggregate Measure of Support (AMS). Developed countries must reduce this level by 20 percent over 6 years while developing countries wil l reduce theirs by 13 percent over 10 years. A member country shall not increase support to agricultural producers beyond the de minimis level set for the member country.

Reduction of Export Subsidies . To level the playing

field, al l member countries must set cei l ings on, and reduce, the average quantity of subsidized exports and the budgetary outlays for export subsidy. For developed countries , this involves the reduction of the quantities of subsidized exports by 21 percent and budgetary outlays by 36 percent over 6 years. For developing countries, the former has to be reduced by 14 percent and the latter by 24 percent over 10 years. These reductions wil l be implemented in equal annual installments for each product.

Harmonization of Sanitary and Phytosanitary

Measures . Finally, the agreement requires the harmonization of al l sanitary and phytosanitary measures , basing these on international standards, guidelines or recommendations . Member countries may only use stricter than international standards i f these have scientific justification, or when these start from an applied lower level o f acceptable r isk.

Table 1 presents a summary and comparison of the

agreements on agriculture for both developed and developing countries .

IV. SCENARIOS FOR THE PHILIPPINE AGRICULTURE

A. A Background on the Phil ippine Agriculture Sector

The Phil ippines is largely an agricultural economy. Agriculture, including fisheries and forestry, accounts for about 45 percent of total employment, about 21 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP), and about 17 percent of its export revenues in 1993. The major

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TABLE 1. Main Features of the GATT－Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture

======================================================== AGREEMENT

Developed Countries Time Frame:

6 years starting 1995

Developing Countries Time Frame:

10 years starting 1995

1. Conversion of al l quati- tative restric - tions (QRs) on all agricultural products into tarif fs (Safeguard pro- vision: al lowing tarif fs to increase by up to 1/3 of applicable rate in case of surge in imports)

－ no option

retaining QRs

－ option of

retaining QRs for staples with certain requirements specified

2. Reduction of tarif fs on agri- cultural products (All member countries are required to set a maximum limit on tari f fs to be imposed on all agri products)

－ reduce l imits by a minimum of 15% for each tari ff l ine and by a simple average of 36% for all tarif f l ines

－ reduce l imits by a minimum of 10% for each tari ff l ine and by a simple average of 24% for all tarif f l ines

3. Reduction of domestic subsidies (Member countries wil l reduce the domestic subsidies measured as aggregate measure of support (AMS) given to its agricultural commodities )

－ reduce AMS by 20% except when AMS does not exceed 5% of the total value of produc- tion of the commodity provided the support

－ reduce AMS by 14% except when AMS falls below 10% of the total value of produc- tion of the commodity provided the support

－ investment areas

exempted from the reduction of subsidies include research, pest & disease control , training, exten- sion & advisory services , inspec- tion services , marketing &, promotion, and infrastructure.

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4. Reduction of export subsidies (Member countries wil l reduce the monetary value of export subsi- dies provided to specific agri products)

－ reduce number of agri products receiving export subsidies by 21%

－ reduce the total amount spent on export subsidies by 36%

－ reduce number of agri products receiving export subsidies by 14%

－ reduce the total amount spent on export subsidies by 24%

5. Harmonization of sanitary and phytosanitary measures

－ measures wil l be based on relevant international standards developed by international organizations such as the Codex Alimentarius Commission, the International Office of Epizootics, and other organizations operating within the framework of the International Plant Protection Convention.

Source: The Final Act of GATT, PhilExport , February 1994

subsectors in agriculture－－ rice , corn, coconut, sugar, banana, l ivestock, poultry, and fisheries－－ account for 70 percent of the gross value added in agriculture and fisheries. Those dependent on agriculture for a l iving, either directly or indirectly, comprise about 70 percent of the population. There are some 11.5 mill ion farmers and farm family members dependent on rice; 7 mill ion on corn; 8 .2 mill ion on coconut; 5 mill ion on sugarcane and some 591,000 on banana.

The country exports a large volume of its agricultural produce to major destinations in the world. Among its top ten exports include coconut products , banana, sugar, pineapple products, marine products , abaca and cof fee (Table 2) . The top importers of these products are notably the United States (38 percent) , Japan (29 percent) and the European Union (18 percent) .

The Phil ippines is basically a net agricultural exporter. In 1993 alone, some US $2 bil l ion dollars worth of agricultural products equivalent to 20 percent of the country’s total exports were exported. I ts agricultural imports, on the other hand, was valued at US $1.6 bil l ion or 10 percent of the value of total imports for the same year. This indicates that the country has a comparative advantage in agriculture despite the fact that i t has not fully realized the productivity of its lands to the optimum, and the lack of support to the sector in terms of infrastructure, research and development, among other things.

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TABLE 2. Volume and Value of Top Ten Agricultural Exports of the Phil ippines, 1991－ 1993

=================================================== EXPORT PRODUCT 1991 1992 1993

VOLUME ( ’000 MT)

Coconut Oil 839.89 781.40 848.70 Banana 955.41 820.80 1152.77 Sugar 274.14 208.52 324.19 Pineapple in syrup 194.28 197.54 237.13 Tuna a/ 51.23 47.04 31.92 Dessicated coconut 80.74 85.20 93.34 Copra oi l cake/meal 612.45 539.69 480.36 Abaca b/ 156.32 151.32 134.88 Copra 80.69 34.20 26.77 Coffee c / 4.63 1.39 0.72

VALUE (FOB US$ ’000,000)

Coconut Oil . 298.53 420.49 353.24 Banana 173.00 157.73 225.81 Sugar 114.62 121.80 101.70 Pineapple in syrup 95.13 96.23 94.02 Tuna 115.24 94.30 75.69 Dessicated coconut 66.24 87.60 83.74 Copra oi l cake/meal 54.88 52.54 44.75 Abaca 16.34 21.21 18.37 Copra 18.55 11.30 7.11 Coffee 4.70 3.15 0.86

a/ Frozen, except fi l lets b/ In ’000 bales c/ Raw or green, not roasted Source: Selected Statistics on Agriculture

Bureau of Agricultural Statistics , Phil . , 1994

B. Impact of the GATT－ UR on Agriculture

Membership in the GATT alone of fers a country numerous benefits . I t o ffers greater opportunities for increasing exports and export earnings. It also results in improved planning and implementation of investment and trade activi ties as a result o f stable and transparent trading rules. Finally, i t assures countries with lesser political stature and economic resources fair, non- discriminatory treatment in the conduct of international trade.

The approval as wel l as implementation of the UR

agreement wil l have varied impacts on various economies. As to be expected, the approval of provisions specially on agriculture wil l be most dif ficult in developed countries such as Japan with no comparative advantage in

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agriculture but where heavy subsidies promote agricultural production and even exports. For developing economies l ike the Phil ippines, however, these provisions wil l be a welcome move to level the playing field in world trade since they are expected to benefit through greater opportunities and higher agricultural incentives as opposed to the present si tuation.

It should be mentioned that the present agricultural

trading system worldwide is gravely distorted in favor of developed countries which have been subsidizing their agricultural sectors . Such system has gradually eroded markets for products of agricultural producing countries and has transformed agricultural importing countries into subsidizing agricultural exporting countries.

For the past decades , the agricultural policies of

most developed countries isolated their internal markets for their own producers using quantitative import restrictions and providing them with price supports . A vivid example of this is the protection accorded by Japan to i ts rice industry. These policies have been actually costly and have led to over production of farm products . Surpluses from the US and European countries in particular have found their way into world markets, causing the prices of major agricultural goods to decline steadily. Agricultural producing countries l ike the Phil ippines have not only faced declining world prices but have also absorbed fluctuations in the prices of farm products as a result of production and trade distorting policies. The UR agreement on agriculture, therefore , is a major step towards checking unfair trade practices through the imposition of a rules-based agricultural trading system.

Compliance with GATT－ UR Requirements . Like all

contracting parties , the Phil ippines has to comply with the UR provisions. I t wil l be required for instance to l i ft al l existing quantitative restrictions on all agricultural products , except rice which is the country’s staple food. This necessitates amendments of some inconsistent policies or laws such as the Magna Carta of Small Farmers (Republic Act 7607) which states that “importation of agricultural commodities that are locally produced in sufficient quantities (including corn, poultry and meat products thereof, except beef) wil l not be allowed to protect local producers from unfair competition”.

In l ieu of quantitative restrictions, higher tari ff

rates wil l be imposed on agricultural commodities . For critical agricultural products, the increase wil l be more substantial reaching the maximum allowable l imit o f 100 percent under the existing Phil ippine tariff and customs law. For instance, in the case of corn and pork, whose current tarif f rates stand at 20 percent, the initial

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bound rate wil l be 100 percent for both commodities . Tariff rates wil l be reduced to 50 and 40 percent, respectively, by 2005. Table 3 shows the schedule of tarif fs on Phil ippine imports of selected agricultural commodities per the UR agreement.

In recognition of food security concerns , the Phil ippines has availed of the flexibil ity of the UR agreement of retaining quantitative import restrictions for staples, in this case, rice . Import restriction on rice wil l remain for the next ten years. In exchange, however, a minimum import access quota for rice wil l be allowed amounting to one percent of the country’s domestic consumption or about 59,730 MT in 1995 to four percent or 238,940 MT in 2004 at 50 percent tari ff .

The country is not required to reduce its budgetary outlays on domestic support for agricultural products to comply with the provision on the removal or el imination of domestic subsidies . While it currently provides domestic subsidies to its rice , corn, coconut and sugar sectors in the form of production support measures such as ferti l izer, certi fied seeds, planting material subsidies as well as price support mechanisms, the computed aggregate measure of support (AMS) for these sectors fal l below the de minimis level o f 10 percent for developing countries . In rice, for example, which is the heavily subsidized sector, the total AMS is only 5 percent of its value of production. Likewise, the Phil ippines wil l not be affected by the provision on export subsidies as it does not provide any.

Possible Impacts of GATT . There are diverse views as to how the UR agreement wil l af fect the agriculture sector of the Phil ippines. Considering, however, the l iberalization of world agricultural markets from distortive production and trade policies , the Phil ippines is seen to benefi t a lot from the GATT.

Increased market access and exports . The country’s accession to the GATT－ UR agreement can regain the competitiveness i t has lost due to declining world prices of agricultural products. With the l i f ting of quantitative restrict ions in all GATT contracting parties, the country wil l benefit in terms of increased volume of exports and wider global market access opportunities. Exports of major agricultural commodities , in particular, are expected to improve due to the phasing out of quotas in major export markets and the el imination of production and export subsidies in other countries . With transparency and predictabil ity realized through tarif f bindings and harmonization of sanitary and phytosanitary measures, exports wil l be secured and lower transactions costs wil l be achieved in trading.

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TABLE 3. Schedule of Tariffs on Phil ippine Imports of Selected Agricultural Commodities per the Uruguay Round Agreement

======================================================== COMMODITY

Base Rate a /

Initial Bound Rate b /

Final Bound Rate c /

CROPS Corn* 20 100 50 Potatoes* 50 100 40 Onions* 50 100 40 Garlic* 50 100 40 Cane sugar (raw)* 50 100 40 Coffee products* 50 100 40 Coconuts 50 70 50 Banana 50 70 70 Wheat for use as feed 10 50 30 Wheat flour 30 50 40 Pineapple 50 50 40 Oranges 50 70 45 Apples 50 50 45 LIVE ANIMALS Cattle* －pure-bred breeder 10 10 5 － feeder (</=50kg) 10 20 10 －others 10 40 36 Swine* －pure-bred breeder 10 10 5 －< 50kg 10 60 40 －>/= 50kg 10 40 36 Chicken* －breeder, > 180g 40 80 40 Goat －pure bred breeder 10 10 5 －others 10 60 40 MEAT OF ANIMALS Pork (carcass and 20 100 40

meat, al l cuts)* Chicken (uncut)* 40 100 40 Beef* 20 60 40 Goat Meat* 20 65 35 a/ Current tari ff rate b/ Maximum applicable tarif f rate in 1995 c/ Maximum applicable tarif f rate in 2005 * These i tems are entitled to concessions, i .e . imposition of additional duties when there is an import surge or when the price of the imported product fal ls below a trigger price equal to the 1986－ 1988 average CIF unit value of the product concerned; the addit ional duty shall only be maintained until the end of the year when it shall only be imposed at a level which shall not exceed 1/3 of the existing tarif f rate.

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The increased demand for export goods wil l increase local production of these goods . In the Phil ippines, the products that wil l be positively af fected are the export winners and potential export earners , namely: coconut, bananas, pineapples, mangoes , marine products and cut flowers, among others.

Increased incomes/GVA and generation of jobs .

Concomitantly, the increase in export volumes wil l increase export earnings which wil l imply an expansion of the gross value added (GVA) of agriculture. The need to improve the quality of export products in order to be competitive wil l also require greater demand for post - production services (e.g . packaging and processing) , thereby increasing the demand for labor and creating more jobs . Consequently, incomes in the sector wil l increase.

More ef ficient agriculture sector and competitive

prices of goods. The l i fting of quantitative restrictions on agricultural commodities in the country wil l result in the free entry of goods and services. When there is an import surge, however, higher tari ff rates wil l be imposed on imported goods for a certain period of time. The free entry of goods wil l result in more competitive prices which wil l positively favor the local consumers. However, the competition may ease out less competitive industries and may result in labor dislocations. Notwithstanding this possibil ity, this may result in the reallocation of resources to the more efficient industries, thereby, resulting in a more productive agriculture sector where only the industries which are. operating at a comparative advantage wil l persist in the long run.

Increased prices of imported food products and

production inputs . On the other hand, the l i f ting of production and export subsidies in developed countries wil l result in increased prices for imported food products. In the Phi l ippines, the consumers wil l have to pay more for products such as dairy, beef, wheat, feed ingredients, among others. In this regard, imports of these products may decrease. Nonetheless, a possible and more positive impact wil l be the domestic production of alternative or substi tute products which wil l consequently create new jobs for the sector. The country is believed to have a comparative advantage in l ivestock production especially swine production. However, this comparative advantage can only be real ized i f the necessary trade policy reforms that would reduce the cost of feeds and other inputs, and the appropriate infrastructure support are put in place .

While the tarif fication of quantitative barriers on

agricultural commodities wil l in a way protect local producers of the same products , it wil l increase prices

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of imported goods . This wil l speci fically have a negative impact on the local producers such as the feedmillers who depend on primary imported products as inputs to the production of other intermediate goods. Nonetheless, this wil l encourage them and consumers to demand for local substitutes and local products causing some reallocation of resources towards the domestic industries. Consequently, this may result in increased agricultural production.

Better quali ty products. Finally, the harmonization of sanitary and phytosanitary measures wil l force Phil ippine products to comply with international standards, thus, result in better quality products . Phil ippine exports wil l , then, have a more competitive edge in the export market .

Figure 1 i l lustrates the possible impacts of GATT－ UR on the Phil ippine agriculture sector. This model, however, sti l l needs empirical evidence to be truly relevant.

Based on estimates made by the GATT Secretariat , world agricultural trade is expected to r ise by about 20 percent. I f the Phil ippines can just maintain its market share, its agri -based exports created by this agreement can increase by as much as 21 percent. While agricultural imports are also estimated to increase by 20 percent, the net export earnings is expected to be greater. Relatedly, it is a necessary condition that the critical mass of GATT－ acceding countries be reached. In this case, the ratification by the U.S. and Japan of the GATT－ UR agreement wil l be crucial to the Phil ippines as these countries account for about 60 percent of the export market for its agricultural products . C. Problems/Issues in Implementing Trade Liberalization

Liberalization of trade, as provided for under the GATT－ UR agreement, faces di fficulties in the Phil ippines. The country’s agriculture sector is particularly apprehensive of the possible impacts of the implementation of GATT－ UR on food production and distribution. At present, perceptions of the GATT’s negative implications seem to far outweigh the benefits considering that the sector has to face a lot o f adjustments which are expected to disrupt existing production and trade operations.

Lack of basic understanding of the GATT . Foremost of the problems faced by the Phil ippine agriculture sector is the lack of basic understanding of the GATT－ UR agreement. The farming sector, which has been clamoring for the re jection of the GATT－ UR by Phil ippine Senate, admits the lack of understanding of the agreement. Thus,

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FIGURE 1. An Il lustration of the Possible Impacts of GATT on the Phil ippine Agriculture Sector

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a truly massive information dissemination on the agreement is sti l l wanting to appreciate its merits /demerits .

Poor access to infrastructure and other support

faci l i ties . One of the perceived negative ef fects of the GATT－ UR relates to the readiness of the Phil ippine agriculture sector to face the changes required by the agreement. The sector may be placed at a disadvantage considering its poor access to research and development, appropriate and modern technologies and infrastructure and post-production faci l ities . This problem has been attributed partly to the meager allocation of government resources to the sector. Government investments on agricultural research and development and rural infrastructure, for instance, have averaged at a measly 0.23 percent and 3 percent, respectively, of the total GDP during the last three years . Moreover, there are sti l l policy reforms that need to be done to improve the efficiency in the provision of these support services and increase private sector investments in these areas .

Protection of some industries/inconsistent policies .

There are also a number of policies/laws that presently protect some agricultural industries /sectors. Most of these policies /laws , e .g . R.A. 7607, 7308, 1296, 2712, Memorandum Order (M.O.) 96 and Presidential Decree (P.D.) 1593, prohibit the importation of certain agricultural commodities . Since these are inconsistent with the GATT－ UR provisions, these require amendments or repeal ei ther by Congress or the Executive branch. However, since these policies also protect certain sectors, their amendments/repeal are being opposed.

Poor trade monitoring system . The present trade flows monitoring system is seen to be inefficient. For instance, technical smuggling and dumping of agricultural goods in the country sti l l persist . Also, imported goods are not properly taxed or valued. I f the agreement wil l be implemented, there are fears that the country’s commitments and competitive advantage wil l not be realized given the flaws in the monitoring system. Reforms in this area, thus, need to be done.

Need for macroeconomic reforms . Finally, a number of macroeconomic polic ies have burdened the agriculture sector and made it inefficient and less competitive in the export market . For instance, the foreign exchange rate at P26 to $1 is believed to be overvalued, making Phil ippine exports more expensive than those produced by other suppliers. Also, the trade and tari ff structure currently renders the cost o f vi tal agricultural inputs to be expensive, making agricultural production very costly. Policies in the financial and transport sectors have also burdened the agriculture sector.

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V. POLICY AND SUPPORT MEASURES

A number of adjustment measures wil l have to be made in conjunction with the GATT－ UR agreement. As mentioned earlier, not only wil l quantitative but also structural measures have to be . undertaken.

Production Enhancement Measures . In preparation for the ratifi cation and implementation of GATT, the Department of Agriculture (DA) is intensively implementing its major production programs. The adoption of the Key Production Area (KPA) approach to agricultural development is also being pursued. Among the banner programs that are currently being implemented are the Grains Productivity Enhancement Program (GPEP), the Medium-Term Livestock Development Program (MTLDP), the Key Commercial Crops Development Program (KCCDP), and the Medium-Term Fisheries Development Program (MTFDP).

The GPEP aims to increase rice and corn production from 9.4 mill ion MT and 4.8 mill ion. MT in 1993 to sufficiency level of 12 mill ion and 7 mill ion MT by 1998, respectively, through the provision of subsidies in the form of certi fied seeds, irrigation support, production and dissemination of technologies, credit and market support and postharvest faci l i ties . The MTLDP, on the other hand, aims to expand the existing local breeder herd of cattle , sheep, goat and swine through importation of stocks , rehabil itation and restocking of l ivestock production centers , and intensification of disease control and eradication activities . The KCCDP, meanwhile , aims to increase the production of commercial crops such as coconut, banana, mango and cut flowers through: distribution of quali ty seeds and planting materials , provision of postharvest faci l i ties , enhancement of extension, training and research services, and strengthening of farmers ’ cooperatives . Finally, the MTFDP aims to increase fisheries production through sustainable production activities such as the coastal resource management program, provision of ice plant and cold storage faci l ities, and strengthening of f ishermen’s organizations.

The implementation of the on-going Comprehensive Agrarian Reform Program (CARP) wil l a lso have to be pursued vigorously. The Department of Agrarian Reform (DAR), as the lead implementing agency of the CARP, wil l undertake three major interventions to strengthen the position of the agrarian reform beneficiaries (ARB) against the impact of GATT as fol lows: land acquisition and distribution, land use management and agrarian reform communities development, and ARB development. These activi ties are expected to prepare farmers for the GATT by empowering and enhancing their bargaining position in acquiring low inputs and obtaining fair prices for their products.

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In the pursuit of the above programs, a total of ¥ 16.4 bil l ion ( P 4 .1 bil l ion) wil l be allocated in the 1995 budget of the DA for projects supportive of the GATT. During the next five years , however, the DA will need a total o f ¥ 288 bil l ion ( P 72 bil l ion) for the full implementation of the above programs to improve the productivity and competitiveness of the agriculture sector. Meanwhile, for activi ties needed to strengthen the implementation of the CARP in support of the GATT, a total of ¥ 2 .4 bil l ion ( P 0.6 bil l ion) wil l be allocated to DAR’s 1995 budget. Overall , however, DAR would need a total of about ¥ 496 bil l ion ( P 124 bil l ion) to complete the implementation of the CARP by 1998.

Conduct of Massive Information Campaign . A massive information program on the GATT and the UR agreement is currently being conducted to make the affected sectors and the general public aware of their perceived benefi ts and consequences at the national and regional levels. Such information program, however, sti l l needs to be equipped with relevant statistics to ensure that the impact of the agreement would be truly understood. At the moment, projections on the possible implications of the GATT－ UR are sti l l wanting. Even the DA has yet to come up with veri fied figures on the impact of the GATT－ UR using various simulation models.

Implementation of Macroeconomic Reform Measures . Various fiscal , monetary and trade policy changes are needed to strengthen the abil ity of local industries, including the agriculture sector, to compete in the international market. Broadly, the public sector ’s debt to GNP ratio , at around 4.6 percent ( P 34.3 bil l ion to P 753.8 bil l ion) in 1993, should be reduced to lower interest rates and the debt service burden on the budget . This requires speci fic reforms on both the revenue and expenditure side.

Reforms in revenue generation. Measures to increase revenues include the restructuring of the tax system to make the average tax rate low but applied to a wider comprehensive base; the reform of the system of special f iscal incentives to reduce foregone tax revenues; and the strengthening of the tax-collection machinery by a computerization of the Bureau of Internal Revenue. An efficient import valuation and monitoring scheme also needs to be developed to improve the ef ficacy of the system.

Lowering of interest rates . Domestic producers usually cite the high cost o f money and the lack of access to long-term funds, among others , as a reason for their inabil i ty to compete in both the domestic and export markets . To lower interest rates, the l iberalization of the entry of foreign banks and expansion of their scope of operations has been

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legislated and the implementing rules and regulations are now being drafted . Further, the reduction of reserve requirements from 22 to 19 percent has been in ef fect since 15 August 1994. The establishment of new banks and bank branches, particularly in the rural areas should be encouraged. Moreover, the development of capital markets should be pursued to increase reliance on capital markets as a source of long-term funding.

Promotion of a more competitive exchange rate . A competitive exchange rate policy should be pursued in support of Phil ippine exports . In relation to this , the Bangko Sentral ng Pil ipinas (BSP) is considering ways to el iminate remaining restrictions on foreign exchange transactions , which include prior BSP approval for outward investments of over $1 mill ion by residents and the need for registration with BSP if foreign exchange to service debts is to be purchased from the banking system.

Reorientation of Government Expenditure Pattern. To ensure that ef ficiency and competitiveness of the agriculture sector wil l be achieved, the government expenditure pattern should be reoriented to allocate a larger share of available resources to research and development (R&D), rural infrastructure (e.g. roads, irrigation and drainage systems) , and other support services such as postharvest and processing, power, water, telecommunications, and shipping and other transport faci l ities . Given the government’s budgetary constraints , private sector participation in priority investment activi ties is being encouraged through schemes such as the build operate transfer (BOT) and the build operate and own (BOO). As for R&D, not only is there a need for increased budget for this area, the efficacy of the R&D system should also be pursued. R&D on appropriate production and postharvest technologies should be strengthened. At present, while there are available technologies , there is a need for their e ffective commercialization and dissemination.

Reforms in the trade and tari ff structure. A review of the current trade and tari ff structure in order to implement a more ef fective tari ffi cation system. Such would improve the competitiveness of the local industries, including the agriculture sector, particularly in the acquisition of imported raw materials and inputs for forward production and processing activi ties.

Reform in the inter-island transport policy. An efficient transport system is crucial in the marketing and distribution of agricultural inputs and products particularly in an is land country l ike the Phil ippines. At present, most transport systems, e .g. shipping and air, normally cater to passenger demands and to big industries. Reforms in the transport industry, therefore,

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should be put in place to ensure ef fective, ef ficient and timely flow of goods from the production to consumption areas, especially those of the small producers and traders.

Other Support Measures . The demand for greater competitiveness in the agriculture sector would require skil ls upgrading, f inancing and technological upgrading. Training on these areas wil l be necessary to ensure that producers as well as traders wil l be properly equippped to face the challenges of competition. There may also be workers who will be displaced with the implementation of the GATT－ UR agreement. In which case, there is a need for the conduct of programs related to training, sel f- employment, l ivelihood enhancement, employment faci l itation and educational assistance for displaced workers. Meanwhile , there is a need to further provide more reliable, relevant and timely market information to ensure greater productivity and profi ts for the sector. This would require improvement in the current information and price monitoring system in the country. Finally, there is a need to support the development of the cooperative movement to ensure greater bargaining power and productivity in the sector. VI. AREAS OF COOPERATION BETWEEN JAPAN AND THE

PHILIPPINES

As mentioned in the earlier portion of this paper, it is important for the Phil ippines that the critical mass of GATT－ acceding countries wil l be achieved. The membership of Japan and the US in the GATT/WTO in particular, wil l assure the country of a relatively stable market for its agricultural exports and of continuous multi lateral trade arrangements. In this regard, the Phil ippines, while deliberating on the merits of i ts membership in the GATT/WTO, is also closely monitoring moves by both countries regarding the agreement. I t can also be observed that in the case of Japan, i t is l ikewise vigilant of the moves of the US since the latter absorbs about 32 percent of i ts exports . All countries are given up to December 1994 to decide their membership in the GATT/WTO. At the moment, however, i t is crucial to determine/identify possible areas of cooperation among countries to ensure more effective and ef ficient trade and technical arrangements . In this case, Japan, given i ts f inancial and technical resources , plays a significant role in fostering and promoting a dynamic and efficient global trade environment.

On Trade Collaboration . Table 4 shows that an average of about 29 percent of the Phil ippines ’ total agricultural exports is imported by Japan. In view thereof, it is important that its close trade

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TABLE 4. Phil ippine Agricultural Exports to Japan, 1991 to 1992 (FOB Value in Thousand Dollars)

========================================================

1991 1992 1993

A. Total Exports to the World 8,839,514 9,824,314 11,374,805 B. Total Agricultural Exports to the World 1,803,828 1,881,696 1,924,559

(B/A, in percent) (20.4) (19.2) (17.0) C. Total Exports to Japan 1,771,301 1,745,424 1,827,035

(C/A, in percent) (20.0) (17.8) (16.1) D. Total Agricultural Exports to Japan 537,532 484,616 607,291

(D/B, in percent) (29.8) (25.7) (31.6)

Processed Food 47,966 43,402 66,936

Meat & Meat Preparations .09 2 .03 Dairy Products & Eggs .15 10 16 Marine Products 11,505 8,873 13,569 Cereal & Preparations .34 .02 4 Vegetables & Fruits 18,087 15,706 41,007 Sugar, Sugar Preparations & Honey 12,283 10,606 10,871 Cocoa, Tea & Spices 1,356 1,623 1,694 Feeding Stuff for Animals 3,002 4,209 8,132 Beverages 1,454 1,778 2,645 Misc. Edible Products 279 595 798

Fresh Food 401,751 352,705 465,694 Live Animals for Food 16 8 14 Meat 8 11 7 Dairy Products & Eggs 1 4 7 Marine Products 238,845 194,014 244,062 Cereals 64 27 17 Vegetables & Fruits 161,170 157,836 193,134 Coffee 1,644 794 175 Cocoa, Tea & Spices 3 11 0 Sugar & Honey (Fresh) 0 0 28,278 Coconut Products 10,589 12,718 6,220 Copra 1,662 0 0 Coconut Oil , Crude 8,927 12,718 6,220

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Tobacco 4,350 2,466 2,234 Tobacco Manufactures 2,327 305 76 Tobacco Unmanufactured 2,023 2,161 2,158 Other Resource-based Commodities 72,875 73,325 66,207 Natural Fibers 1,104 1,255 476 Natural Oils & Fats 13,516 18,142 9,137 Unmanufactured Fibers 2,412 3,250 3,982 Natural Rubber 0 6 0 Seaweeds 5,668 2,738 2,876 Marble 5,417 3,935 2,748 Cut flowers /Ornamentals 388 443 800 Others 44,370 43,556 46,188

Source: Department of Trade and Industry, Manila

relationship with Japan be maintained under the GATT/WTO regime. On its part , the Phil ippines has to maintain and further improve the quality of its products and exports ; identify and expand new export products and markets ; provide a conducive environment for trade and investment by the private sector and foreign entities, within the l imits of the law; and implement the necessary trade and tarif f reforms as required under the GATT－ UR provisions. The Phil ippine membership in regional associations such as the Asia Paci fic Economic Cooperation (APEC) and ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) would also be very beneficial in increasing i ts bargaining power, improving its export competitiveness and in strengthening i ts ties in terms of economic and technical cooperation.

While Phil ippine exports merely comprise a small proportion (about 0 .07 percent) o f the value of Japan’s total imports , its continued support for Phil ippine products would be vi tal . Hopefully, despite the sti f fer competition faced by the Phil ippines, Japan would maintain and even increase the volume of agricultural imports from the former country. Other areas of col laboration would be in the fostering of better trade arrangements/contracts, and establishment and maintenance of a trade information network between the two countries particularly with private sector entities involved in export and import activities.

Economic and Technical Cooperation . Currently, the Phil ippines receives support from the Japanese government in the form of o fficial development assistance (ODA) which is further classified into grant-aid, technical cooperation and loan aid. ODA is very critical in promoting economic development in the country, including

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the activi ties which directly relate to trade. In 1993, Japanese ODA comprised about 57 percent of the total ODA in the Phil ippines.

Most of the projects financed by Japan in the Phil ippines are focused on capital investments for infrastructure support , insti tutional and human development, production systems support and environmental concerns. Further investments are encouraged on rural infrastructure (roads, bridges and irrigation) , postharvest /postproduction faci l ities , communication and transport systems and credit to improve the trade and investment cl imate in the country. Technical assistance are especially wanting on areas involving research and development of new product l ines, technology transfer techniques, strengthening of cooperatives and farmers ’ organizations, and postharvest technology particularly on commercial crops and marine products, two of the major export products of the Phil ippines to Japan. VII . CONCLUSION

In general , accession to the GATT－ UR accord is seen to be a more positive than a negative move to improve the efficiency and effect iveness of agricultural production in the Phil ippines. More speci fically, its implementation is seen to have favorable impact on the country’s export sector. The effective implementation of the GATT－ UR agreement, however, hinges on a number of policy reforms. These reforms may either be structural ( tarif fs , exchange rates, interest rates , etc.) , institutional ( production and distribution systems or channels) or physical ( technology, infrastructure) in nature. Concomitantly, the reforms will effect quantitative and qualitative changes in the production and distribution of agricultural and food commodities , consumption patterns and composition and quality of the labor force in the country.

Agricultural policies in the Phil ippines need to change radically in the long-run. In this regard, any policy initiative wil l have to take place within the framework of structural adjustment programs. The current trend of agricultural and food policies are geared towards the targetting of particular groups of beneficiaries which result in excessive costs and, therefore , broadly reflects the requirements of structural adjustment.

The dual influences of changes in the international trading environment and structural adjustment programs generally require shifting the focus of policy interventions away from attempts to influence the price mechanism. The required shift is l ikely to be towards investment in agricultural economy, including programs to

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develop marketing services and appropriate storage faci l ities accessible to the rural population. In addition, a shift in resources away from direct input subsidies to the development of rural f inancial markets may be considered on account of the superior allocative efficiency of the latter as well as its opportunities for more progressive targetted interventions. These shifts wil l only be successful and sustainable i f the net returns to ef ficient producers wil l be positive and i f price-based policies are maintained. In effect , whether the change is motivated by the GATT disciplines, or by structural adjustment policies , both point to one direction, that where actions to influence prices are no longer the main instruments of agricultural policy.

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VIII . BIBLIOGRAPHY A Primer on the The General Agreements on Tarif fs and Trade and Its Implications on Phil ippine Agriculture . Department of Agriculture. Ell iptical Road, Dil iman, Quezon City, 1994. ASEAN－ JAPAN Statistical Pocketbook . ASEAN Promotion Center on Trade, Investment and Tourism. Tokyo, Japan, 1992. CLARETE, RAMON L. Uruguay Final Act: Implications for the Phil ippine Economy and the Agriculture Sector . Paper presented during the Phil ippine Economic Society Meeting, Hotel Nikko Manila Garden, August 19, 1994. Japan－ An International Comparison . Keizai Koho Center (Japan Insti tute for Social and Economic Affairs) . Tokyo, Japan, 1993. Japan Statistics in Brief . Statistics Bureau, Management and Coordination Agency. Tokyo, Japan, GATT is Beyond Ideology . A Policy Update. Agricultural Policy Research and Advocacy Assistance Program (APRAAP). April 1994. GATT, Will I t Hurt Phil ippine Agriculture? . A Policy Update. Agricultural Policy Research and Advocacy Assistance Program (APRAAP). May 1994. GREENWAY, DAVID. The Uruguay Round of Multi lateral Trade Negotiations: Last Chance for GATT? Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1991. NEDA Economic Watchlist . Prepared by the National Planning and Policy Staff and the Management Information Systems Staff , NEDA sa Pasig, Metro Manila, September 16, 1994. Selected Readings on the Final Act of GATT Uruguay Round . The Phil ippine Exporters Confederation, Inc . (PHILEXPORT), Manila, February 1994. Selected Statistics in Agriculture . Bureau of Agricultural Statistics. Quezon City, May 1994.

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Working Paper No.1 Industrial Transition and Policies in the Development Process of the Korean Economy

Park Joon Kyung, July 1991 No.2 Retrospects and Prospects of Thailand’s Economic Development

Somchai Jitsuchon, July 1991 No.3 A Perspective on Philippines Economic Performance and Development Strategies

Josef T. Yap, July 1991 No.4* The Japanese Economy during the Era of High Economic Growth, Retrospect and

Evaluation Akira Sadahiro, July 1991

No.5 Structure of the Economy and Financial Policy: The Role of Structural Policy in Realizing Market-Oriented Reforms

Mikhail Ksenofontov, April 1992 No.6 Social Security and Social Network in Japan

Shuzo Nishimura, April 1992 No.7 Savings in Asian Developing Countries－－What Measures Could be Taken to Stimulate

Private Savings in Thailand ? Jun Saito, September 1991

No.8* Possible Lessons for the Transition to a Market Economy and Durable Economic Growth with the Reference to the Postwar Japanese Economy

Akira Sadahiro, April 1992 No.9 An Introduction of the Market Mechanism into the CIS Economy

Katsuhiro Miyamoto, April 1992 No.10 Experience of East Asian Newly Industrializing Economies

Fumihira Nishizaki, May 1992 No.11 Monetary Policies and Money Markets in Indonesia

Masaaki Komatsu, July 1992 No.12 The Structure and Function of Distribution Industry in Korea

Lee, Jae-Hyung, November 1992 No.13 Some Issues on Privatization and Policies for Promoting Export of Vietnam

Dinh Thi Chinh, November 1992 No.14 Mongolian Reforming Process to a Market Economy

Budsuren Tumen, November 1992 No.15 Economic Reform in Russia, Present and Future

Eugene E. Gavrilenkov, November 1992

－27－

No.16 Deepen the Economic Reform and Opening Market Tie Jun Lee, February 1993

No.17 Economic Reform in Czechoslovakia Vratislav Izak, May 1993

No.18 Economic Reforms in Belarus, Present and Future Alexander N. Potantsev, May 1993

No.19 Ukraine: The Road to National Statehood Creation Igor Bourakovskii, May 1993

No.20 The Russian Economy: Present Problems and Prospects for Reconstruction Vitali G. Shvydko, May 1993

No.21 Reform of Macroeconomic Policy in Cambodia Chhieng Yanara, May 1993

No.22 Rapid Growth and Step by Step Reform in China Ning Jizhe, May 1993

No.23 Patterns and Effects of Financial Sector Reform in Indonesia Mubariq Ahmad, May 1993

No.24 The 1993－1998 Medium-term Development Plan; Its Financial Resources Requirements

Edita A. Tan, May 1993 No.25 Philippines: Macroeconomic Agenda and Prospects for the Medium Term

Charito D. Arriola, May 1993 No.26 Conditions for a Successful Economic Reform in Indochina and the Role of Thailand

Somsak Tambunlertchai, June 1993 No.27* Recession, Restructuring and Recovery

－ What Japanese Experience Suggests to the Romanian Economy － Shoichi Kojima, June 1993

No.28 Development in Chile: Some Facts and Thoughts Felipe G. Morande, June 1993

No.29 A Note on the Chinese Economy: Current Conditions and Prospects Yasuko Takayanagi, July 1993

No.30 Korea’s Economic Development Strategy and Economic Policy Direction of the New Government

Sung-Taik HAN, August 1993 No.31 Financial Deepening and Economic Growth in the Asia-Pacific Region

－ A Lesson from Financial Deregulation in Indonesia － Hiroyuki Taguchi, August 1993

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No.32 Regional Cooperation between Thailand and Indochina Area Pruittiporn Nakornchai, November 1993

No.33 Economic Reform in Mongolia Lkhagvagiin Demberel, March 1994

No.34 Same Theoretico-empirical Aspects of a Transition Economy Sambuugin Demberel, March 1994

No.35 Economic Reform in Poland, 1989－1993 (Structural Transformation) Jarzy J. Kropiwnicki, March 1994

No.36 Chile’s Structural Adjustment: Relevant Policy Lessons for Latin America Luis A. Riveros, May 1994

No.37* 社会主義国家の経済改革の比較研究 －アジア圏と東欧圏がどうして違った発展をするのか－

李 鎬 徹 , June 1994 No.38 AFTA, WTO AND PHILIPPINE SMES

Manuel D.Cantos, October 1994 No.39 Currency Market, Exchange Rate and Macroeconomic Situation of Russia in 1994

Lubov D. Dolzhenkova, April 1995 No.40 Government Plan of Financial Stabilization for Russia in 1995

Andrei Illarionov, May 1995 －－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－ *Out of the stock