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Implications of Climate Change in the South West
Presentation Outline1. The Science of Climate Change: a brief
overview
2. Future climate change: what can the South West expect?
3. Impacts of climate change: how are key sectors affected?
4. Drivers for adaptation: why preparing for change is essential
5. Taking action: adaptation case studies and tools
The Science of Climate Change:
a brief overview
Weather vs. Climate
Climate
= the average weather in a locality over a 30 year period
Weather
= what it is doing outside right now
The greenhouse effect
Observed
Model simulation
Source: Hadley Centre for Climate Predication and Research
Tem
per
atu
re c
han
ge
ºC
1850 1900 1950 2000
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
Natural factors cannot explain recent warming
Source: Hadley Centre for Climate Predication and Research
Observed
Model simulation
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
Tem
per
atu
re c
han
ge
ºC
1850 1900 1950 2000
Recent warming can be simulated when manmade factors are included:
Observed temperatures
Simulated temperatures
We are already committed to this from past emissions alone
We are already committed to this from past emissions alone
Source Met Office Hadley Centre
2040s
2003
2003 summer temperatures could become regular by the 2040s
35,000 people died across Northern Europe as a result of the 2003 August heatwave – effective planning is essential
2003 temperatures normal by 2040s2003 temperatures normal by 2040s
Temp rise is difference from 1750
IPCC Emission Scenarios
High Medium Low
World Stabilisation Scenario
Peak in emissions at 2016 followed by an annual decrease of 4%
Some change is inevitable
We are locked into some change because of past emissionsWe are locked into some change because of past emissions
Year
Start to diverge from 2030-40Start to diverge from 2030-40
Observed changes in the South West
• Between 1961 and 2006…
• Ave. summer temp. increased by 1.41 °C
• Summer precipitation decreased by 8.8%
• Winter precipitation increased by 15.9%
• Sea Level in Newlyn has risen 20 cm since 1920
• 9 out of the past 10 years have now brought serious flooding to the UK
• Globally, the 10 hottest years on record have all occurred since 1997
Mitigation
• reducing our emissions of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide (CO2)
Adaptation
• preparing for the unavoidable impacts of climate change
• Regional partnership funded by a range of public and private organisations
Regional Adaptation Response
Climate SouthWest focuses on climate change impacts and adaptation. Its mission is:
To help the South West Region of England to adapt sustainably to the impacts of climate change
• Describes climate change scenarios for the South West• Identifies likely impacts• Suggests actions needed to respond
www.oursouthwest.com/climate
“Warming to the Idea” Climate SouthWest scoping study. Updated 2010
Future Climate Change:
What can the South West expect?
Increased summer temperatures
17
South-West England central estimate
Medium emissions
Increased Tourism
Increased Heat stress
Infrastructure risks
Risks to biodiversity
Heat related deaths
Risk to Food Security
The change for the 2080s is very unlikely to be less than 2.1ºC or more than 6.4ºC
Map showing average summer temperature change, medium emissions scenario, 2080s
+ 1.6C
2020s
+ 3.9C
2080s
+ 2.7C
2050s
But the temperature on the hottest day of the year could increase by up to 10ºC
Decreased summer precipitation
18
For the 2080s the change is very unlikely to be lower than -49% or higher than +6%
Reduced stream flow and water
quality
Increased drought
Potential benefits for tourism
Subsidence
Serious water stress
Decreased crop yieldsSouth West England
central estimateMedium emissions
Map showing average summer precipitation change, medium emissions scenario, 2080s
- 8%
2020s
- 24%
2080s
- 20%
2050s
Increased winter precipitation
19
Increased winter flooding
Increased subsidence
Risks to urban drainage
Severe Transport disruption
Risks of national Infrastructure
For the 2080s the change is very unlikely to be lower than +6% or higher than +54%
South West central estimate
Medium Emissions
Map showing average winter precipitation change, medium emissions scenario, 2080s
+ 7%
2020s
+23%
2080s
+ 17%
2050s
Relative sea level rise
20
central estimateMedium emissions
Note. Global average sea level rise: 1961-2003 = 1.8mm/year; 1993-2003 = 3.1mm/year (IPCC, 2007)
The H++ scenario for mean sea-level rise around the UK is 93 cm - 190 cm approx by 2100
2020Weston-super-Mare: 12 cm
Newlyn: 13 cm
Poole: 12 cm
2050Weston-super-Mare: 26 cm
Newlyn: 29 cm
Poole: 26 cm
Contribution to England & Wales winter precipitation from extreme 3-day events
Met Office Hadley Centre
More frequent and intense severe weather events
© Bournemouth Tourism ‘Disappointed Ducks’
“RESORTS PACKED AS RECORDS TUMBLE” Dorset Echo, 11th August 2003
2007 summer floods cost + £3 billion
Insured losses from weather-related events cost £1.5bn / yr
2003 Heatwave led to 2000 deaths
“Parched April leads to alerts over silage and grain sales” Western Morning News, 4th May 2011
Impacts of climate change:
How are key sectors affected?
Climate SouthWest Key SectorsAgriculture & Forestry
Biodiversity Housing & Construction
Business & Utilities
HealthLocal Government
Tourism
Transport
Impacts for Agriculture and Forestry
Challenges
• Increased risk of disease
• Heat stress to poultry and livestock
• Increased risk of drought
• Loss of productive land due to sea level rise
• Increased soil erosion and run-off
Opportunities
• New crop varieties
• Reduced frost damage
• Longer growing seasons
• Improved land management and woodland creation
Impacts for Biodiversity
Challenges
• Risk to drought vulnerable species
• Increased visitor pressure on natural environment
• Invasive non-native flora and fauna
• Change in SW natural environment
Opportunities
• Flora and fauna move to northern distributions
• Integrated land management and habitat creation
© RSPB
Impacts for Business & UtilitiesChallenges
• Business continuity
• Recovery costs from events
• Increased insurance costs
• Health and safety risks
• Disruption to supply chain / movement of goods and services
Opportunities
• New market opportunities – goods and services
• Recreational and leisure opportunities
• Opportunities to enhance reputation
• Reduced energy demand in winterSlad Road, Stroud (Bernard Wakefield-Heath) http://www.bbc.co.uk/gloucestershire
Impacts for Housing and Construction
Challenges
• Development in floodplains
• More need for summer cooling
• Increased rain penetration
• Subsidence/landslips
• Rising demand for water but decreased supply
Opportunities
• Less demand for winter heating
• More potential for solar energy
• Increased amount of trees
• Improved drainage infrastructure
• Changing design standards
© White Design
Impacts for local authorities and Local Strategic Partnerships
Challenges
• Protecting residents and business in flood risk areas
• Impacts on natural environment
• Impacts & pressures on infrastructure
• Service delivery continuity
Opportunities
• Leadership by example
• Partnership working
• Improved health – outdoor lifestyles
• Business opportunities - tourism
Impacts for TourismChallenges
• Visitor destinations at capacity
• Increased insurance costs
• Damage to buildings
• Staff and visitor health and safety
• Coastal locations threatened by sea level rise and increased erosion
Opportunities
• Potentially longer season
• Job creation
• Diversification
• Tourism in ‘off peak’ periods
• New market opportunities
© Bournemouth Tourism
Impacts for Transport
Challenges
• Increased pressure on transport system from increased visitors
• Increased disruption
• Increased damage to infrastructure
Opportunities
• Increased scope for walking and cycling
• Less frost damage to infrastructure and less need for gritting
• Fewer ice/snow related accidents and infrastructure damage
Impacts for HealthChallenges
• Over exposure to UV – cataracts & skin cancer
• Increased heat related deaths
• Impacts of air pollution
• Food poisoning
• Infectious / tropical diseasesOpportunities
• Increased physical recreation – reduction in obesity
• Milder winters – reduction in excess winter deaths
• Fewer cold related admissions
Drivers for adaptation
Why preparing for change is essential
• 573 business properties directly affected (est. only 80% insured)
• 350 000 without water for up to 17 days
• 42 000 without power for 42 hours
• 10 000 people trapped on M5 & railways
• £14.3M - emergency repair & response costs for Gloucestershire businesses
• Businesses out of action for months!(Pitt Review, 2008)
Gloucestershire floods 2007
http://news.bbc.co.uk 23.7.07
http://www.bbc.co.uk/gloucestershire
The South West is vulnerable to the existing climate
• 12th August 2003, Bournemouth & Poole
• High temperatures (31+°C) attract record numbers of visitors
• Accommodation full
• 20% more traffic than usual
• Pollution more than double Gov. Health Limit
• 700 parking tickets issued over weekend
• Emergency vehicles access blocked
2003 Heatwave – Bournemouth & Poole
© Bournemouth Tourism
The temperatures during the 2003 heatwave are likely to become normal in summer by the 2040s
Climate Change Act 2008
• UK Climate Change Risk Assessment every five years
• National adaptation programme must be put in place and reviewed every five years
• Adaptation Reporting Power
• Adaptation Sub-Committee
Business drivers: Insurance
Key messages for businesses:
Climate adaptation is likely to become part of insurance criteria
Well prepared businesses could save money on premiums
Unprepared businesses may not secure insurance cover
In the SW, a 2°C rise could increase annual insured flood losses by 19% - leading to a potential pricing increase of up to 16%.
A 4°C rise could increase losses by 29%- leading to a potential pricing increase of up to 27%.
‘The Financial Risks of Climate Change’ (ABI, 2009)
Business drivers: Reputation
• Growing awareness
– 69% cite flooding as one of the most common effects of climate change
– Businesses need to show they care and are ahead of the game
• Responsible business
- Reputation as employer- Reputation to customers- People care
Taking action:
Adaptation case studies and tools
Adaptation = Risk management
© Environment Agency
Flood case study: Old Mill Hotel, Bath
• Temporary flood boards
• ‘Tanked’ the underneath of the restaurant – i.e. sealed it
• Management training
• The laundry store was moved from the basement
• Close contact is kept with the Environment Agency to monitor the risk
• Catering facilities and staff are prepared - able to move a second kitchen and function room upstairs
Drought case study: High Post Golf Club
• Drought-resistant grasses
• Water allocation process uses less water
• Likelihood of disease reduced – less fungicide needed
• Increased reputation – recognised as ‘on course for sustainability’
• Member support gained through open forum
“Plan for future climate change and don’t be frightened to bang the drum and get some publicity for being pro-active – it’s usually free marketing!”
Peter Hickling, High Post manager
Construction case study: The Scarlet Hotel, Mawgan Porth
Natural ventilation (7%)
and heat recovery
ventilation (85%)
Natural swimming pool – uses rainwater
and no chlorination
Green roofs and landscaping with
a soakaway
Grey and rainwater harvesting systems
Community case study: Slapton Line Partnership
Coastal erosion
Road can only be maintained for max 30 -50 years
• Signage for alternative routes
• Contingency plan for road closures
• Business Forum to discuss challenges and opportunities
• Emphasising attraction of nature reserve
Tools to support adaptation
• Caravan and campsite flood risk management pack
• Business Areas Climate Impacts Assessment Tool
• ‘Changing Climate Changing Business’ DVD
• Online toolkit for tourism businesses www.climateprepared.com
• Case Studies www.oursouthwest.com/climate/casestudies
Preparing for flooding
www.environment-agency.gov.uk
Conclusions
• Climate change is a “now” issue
• We need to plan for current and future vulnerability
• Planning proactively will be more cost effective than reacting
• Opportunities for those who are resilient and able to adapt
• Climate change impacts should be integrated into planning, policy and decision-making
“Adaptation actions should be integrated into development policy and planning at every level. … ignoring climate change is not a viable option – inaction will be far more costly than adaptation”
Stern Review, 2006
The Costs of (In) Action:
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www.oursouthwest.com/climate
