Implementing Vehicle Emission Standards and Equivalent ... · • Euro 4 for gasoline and diesel fuels with sulfur not more than 50 ppm • Euro 5 fuels with sulfur not more than

Implementing Vehicle Emission Standards and Equivalent Fuel Quality and the Case of

Thailand’s Roadmap to Euro 6/VI

Dr. Supat WangwongwatanaFaculty of Public Health, Thammasat University

Member of the Pollution Control Board of Thailand

Current State of Air Quality in Bangkok 2017(Ambient)

Ambient Air Quality in Bangkok 2017

Exceeding Average Standards 1 Year

TSP (24-hr) mg/m3

PM10 (24-hr) g/m3 7-103 71 120 0/1938 (0) 36

PM2.5 (24-hr) g/m3 4-76 53 50 65/987 (6.59) 25

Pb (monthly ) g/m3

CO (1-hr) ppm 0.0-4.5 1.4 30 0/31046 (0.0) 1.0CO (8-hr) ppm 0.0-4.35 1.4 9 0/32265 (0.0) 1.0O3 (1-hr) ppb 0-182 63 100 264/46743 (0.56) 21O3 (8-hr) ppb 0-120 55 70 744/48588 (1.53) 21SO2 (1-hr) ppb 0-23 5 300 0/30387 (0.0) 2SO2 (24-hr) ppb 0-7 4 120 0/1309 (0.0) 2NO2 (1-hr) ppb 0-146 47 170 0/44326 (0.0) 20

StandardsPollutants Range 95 Percentile Annual Avg. Standards

50

25

0.04

0.04

0.03

Current State of Air Quality in Bangkok 2017(Roadside)

Exceeding Average

Standards 1 YearTSP (24-hr) mg/m3

PM10 (24-hr) g/m3 11-136 93 120 7/1338 (0.52) 53

PM2.5 (24-hr) g/m3 7-88 53 50 50/757 (6.61) 26

Pb (monthly ) g/m3

CO (1-hr) ppm 0.0-5.6 1.9 30 0/31890 (0.0) 1.0CO (8-hr) ppm 0-4.69 1.7 9 0/32991 (0.0) 1.0O3 (1-hr) ppb 0-141 46 100 8/16959 (0.05) 12O3 (8-hr) ppb 0-84 40 70 30/17560 (0.17) 13SO2 (1-hr) ppb 0-25 5 300 0/15763 (0.0) 2SO2 (24-hr) ppb 0-6 5 120 0/668 (0.0) 2NO2 (1-hr) ppb 0-159 57 170 0/29864 (0.0) 27

StandardsPollutants Range 95 Percentile Annual Avg. Standards

50

25

0.04

0.04

0.03

Trend of Air Quality in Bangkok

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

No

. o

f veh

icle

: M

il. veh

icle

s

PM

10 (

ug

/m3)

Other Bus

Truck Motorcycle

Light duty diesel Passenger car

Roadside Ambient

1 year Std.


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

No

. o

f veh

icle

: M

il. veh

icle

s

CO

(p

pm

)

Other Bus

Truck Motorcycle


Roadside Ambient

CO


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

No

. o

f V

eh

icle

: M

il. veh

icle

s

TS

P (

mg

/m3)

Other Bus

Truck Motorcycle


Roadside Ambient

1 year Std.

TSP PM10


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0

5

10

15

20

25

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

No

. o

f V

eh

icle

:(M

il. V

eh

icle

Ozo

ne

(p

pb

)

Other Bus

Truck Motorcycle


Roadside Ambient

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

No

. o

f veh

icle

: M

il. veh

icle

s

NO

2(p

pb

)

Truck Other

Bus Motorcycle


Roadside Ambient

1 year Std.


NO2

O3


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

NO

. o

f V

eh

icle

: M

ill. V

eh

icle

s

SO

2 (p

pb

)

Other Bus

Truck Motorcycle


Roadside Ambient

Standard

SO2

64

86

112

76

9187

77

5761

72

60 5955 52

33 34 35 32 29 29 26

11 12 95

11 10 8

R² = 0.7778

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

ปี 2554 ปี 2555 ปี 2556 ปี 2557 ปี 2558 ปี 2559 ปี 2560

ค่าสงูสดุ เปอรเ์ซนไทล ์95ค่าเฉลี่ย ค่าต ่าสดุLinear (ค่าเฉลี่ย)

g/

m3

Annual Average PM2.5 in Bangkok

Standard = 25 g/m3

Euro 4 Fuels

Euro 4 new Vehicles

Maximum

Average

Linear Regression

95 Percentile

Minimum

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Daily Average PM2.5 in Bangkok from 2011 - 2017

1ม

.ค.

1ก.พ

.

1มี

.ค.

1เม

.ย.

1พ

.ค.

1มิ

.ย.

1ก.ค

.

1ส.ค

.

1ก.ย.

1ต

.ค.

1พ

.ย.

1ธ.ค

.

ปี 2554 ปี 2555

ปี 2556 ปี 2557

ปี 2558 ปี 2559

ปี 2560 ปี 2561

31

ธ.ค

.

g/

m3

Standard = 50 g/m3

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Trend of Air Toxics in Bangkok

1.2

3 2.6 2.26

4.1

1.5

3.1

2.52.3

4.5

0

2

4

6

8

10

Benz

ene (

g/m

3 )

Annual Average Standard = 1.7 g/m3

0.04 0.07 0.04 0.04 0.080.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

ERTC รพ.จฬุาลงกรณ์ โชคชยั 4 ราชภฏับา้นสมเดจ็ฯ ดินแดง

1,3-B

utad

iene (

g/m

3 )

พ.ศ. 2551 พ.ศ. 2552 พ.ศ. 2553 พ.ศ. 2554 พ.ศ. 2555 พ.ศ. 2556 พ.ศ. 2557 พ.ศ. 2558 พ.ศ. 2559

Annual Average Standard = 0.33 g/m3

Clean fuels and clean new vehicles

are major contributing factors

responsible for today Bangkok’s

cleaner air

Measures on Clean Fuels

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

before 2003 2003 2012

1,000

500

50

Sulfu

r Con

tent

(ppm

)

Phasing Down Sulfur in Gasoline Fuel in Thailand

Sulfur

Euro 4

Phasing Down Sulfur in Diesel Fuel in Thailand

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

before 1993 1993 1996 1999 2004 2012

10,000

5,000

2,500

500350

50

Su

lfu

r C

on

ten

t (p

pm

)

Euro 3 Euro 4

Thailand Fuel Specifications 2005 and 2012

Gasoline 2005 2012 (current)

RVP 62 kPa60 kPa

62 kPa for Gasohol with VRU

Benzene 3.5 vol% 1 vol%

Aromatics

35 vol% (42 vol% for

Gasohol until 2007)

35 vol%

Olefins - 18 vol%

Sulphur 500 ppm 50 ppm

Diesel 2005 2012 (current)

CI or CN 51 50

90% Distilled Temperature 357 °C 357 °C

Poly-aromatics - 11 w%

Sulfur 350 ppm 50 ppm

Measures on Clean Vehicles

Vehicle Types

Enforcement Years

Before 1995

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007-20122013 -

Present

LDVGasoline

Pre-Euro Euro I Euro II Euro III Euro IV

LDVDiesel

Pre-Euro Euro I Euro II Euro III Euro IV

MC ECE 40-00 ECE

40-01 CO ≤ 13 g/km HC ≤ 5 g/km

CO ≤ 4.5 g/km HC+NOx ≤ 3 g/km White Smoke ≤

30% Evaporative ≤ 2 g/test (for < 110cc.)

CO ≤ 3.5 gm/km HC+ NOx ≤ 2 g/km White Smoke ≤

15% Evaporative ≤ 2 g/test (for ≥ 150cc.)

Euro III (Euro IV, 1 Jan. 2018)

HDV Pre-Euro Euro I Euro II Euro III

Enforcement of Vehicle Emission Standards in Thailand

15Courtesy of Dr.Savitri Garivait

Vehicle Population in Bangkok

9,270,650 as of 31 August 2016 (9.8 million at end 2017)

26 December 2016

17 January 2018

Last week of January – Middle of February 2018

Future Projection of Emissions from Road Transport in Bangkok if Stay on Euro 4

Courtesy of Dr. Savitri Garivait

PM Emission during 2010-2050

NOx Emission during 2010-2050

CO2 Emission during 2010-2050

CO Emission during 2010-2050P

M E

mis

sio

n (

kt)

CO

Em

issi

on

(kt

)

NO

x Em

issi

on

(kt

)C

O2

Emis

sio

n (

kt)

Much Cleaner Fuels and Cleaner Vehicles

are needed !!!

Euro 5/6 Fuel Quality and Vehicle

Emission Standards

to achieve

Clean and Healthy Air for the People in

Bangkok in the long term

Euro 5/6 Fuel Quality Standards

Comparison between Euro 4 and Euro 5 Fuel Specification

Euro 4 Euro 5

1. Sulfur Not more than 50 ppm Not more than 10 ppm

2. Aromatics Not more than 35% by vol. Between 29-35% by vol.

3. Olefins Not more than 18% by vol. Between 3-13% by vol.

4. Benzene Not more than 1% by vol. Not more than 1% by vol.

5. RVP Not more than 62 KPa Between 56-60 kPa

24

Euro 4 Euro 5

1. Cetane Not less than 50 Between 52-54

2. Sulfur Not more than 50 ppm Not more than 10 ppm

3. PAH Not more than 11% by weight Between 2-6% by weight

Quality of Current Fuels in Thailand

• Euro 4 for gasoline and diesel fuels with sulfur not

more than 50 ppm

• Euro 5 fuels with sulfur not more than 10 ppm are

also available,

̵ E20 for gasoline by Bangchak

̵ Premium grade diesel by PTT

Million

liter/day

Euro 5

0.7

Euro 4

28

Gasoline

Million

liter/day

Euro 5

0.2

Euro 4

63

Diesel

Source:

Department of Energy Business

(Jan-May 2016)

Euro 5/6 Vehicle Emission Standards

Development of Future Roadmap for Implementing

Mitigation Measures in Transport Sector in Thailand

• Pollution Control Board of Thailand established a Sub-

Committee on Emission Standards for Motor Vehicles in

Thailand on 25 Feb. 2015

• The Sub-Committee established 4 Task Forces (16 March 2016)

• Task Force on Vehicle Emission Standards

• Task Force on Fuel Quality Standards

• Task Force on Inspection and Maintenance Program

• Task Force on Emission Inventory for Bangkok

• The Sub-Committee plans to draw the conclusion on future fuel

quality and vehicle emission standards and their

implementation timelines by the first quarter of 2017 for

submission to the Pollution Control Board

GAINS Model

Data Input• Energy or Fuel Consumption• Combustion Technology• Engine Technology• Fuel Characteristic• Control Technology• Economic Factors

Result• Thailand’s GHG emissions & air

pollutants (base year 2010) GIS

Other data Input• Information on Emissions Spatial and Temporal

Distribution• Gridded 12 x 12 km & 1 x 1 km (BMR)

Result• Gridded of GHG and Air Pollutants

Emissions

CAMxModel

Other Data Input• Meteorological data• Emissions Boundary

Result• Modeled Air Pollutant

ConcentrationStatisticalAnalysis

Data Input• Monitored or Observed Air

Pollutant Concentration

Result•Uncertainty in AQ

modeling and Emission Inventory

Tool Tool

Tool Tool

1) Emission Inventory

2) AQ Modeling & Simulation3) AQ modeling & Emission Validation

40

Air Benefit Assessment Framework


41

4. Future Emission Reduction Projection Scenarios• Energy policy (PDP, EEDP, AEDP)

• Future Energy Consumption

• Potential Future Energy Demand Reduction

5. Emissions Mitigation Scenarios• Current Legislation Scenario

• Maximum Technology Feasible Reduction

• No Further Control

• ….

6. Air Benefit from Emission Reduction Assessment

7. Health Benefit Assessment

8. Emission Reduction Cost Assessment

9. Cost-Benefit Analysis and Effective Emission Reduction Strategy Assessment

Air Benefit Assessment Framework

Proposed Roadmap for Future Fuel Quality and

Vehicle Emission Standards for Thailand

• Euro 5/6 Fuel Quality Standards

- Gasoline and Diesel – 1 January 2023

• LDV Emission Standards

- Euro 5 - 1 July 2023

- Euro 6 - 1 July 2029

• HDV Emission Standards

- Euro 5 - 1 January 2026

- Euro 6 - 1 January 2032

Vehicle

Standard Fuel StandardPercent of Emission Reduction (%)

HC NOX CO CO2 CH4 PM

Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5

50 ppm S 10 ppm-51% 0% -38% -2% -4% -20%

Euro 4 -25% -4% -32% -2% -12% -16%

Vehicle

StandardFuel Standard

Percent of Emission Reduction (%)

HC NOX CO CO2 CH4Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5

50 ppm S 10 ppm-2% -14% -35% 0% -7%

Euro 4 -3% -31% -74% 0% -100%

Diesel Vehicles

Gasoline Vehicles

Emission Reduction Obtained from Using Euro 5 Fuels (Sulfur

-51

0

-38

-2 -4

-20-25

-4

-32

-2

-12-16

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0HC NOx CO CO2 CH4 PM

Emission Reduction obtained from Switching from

-2

-14

-35

0-7-3

-31

-74

0

-100

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0HC NOx CO CO2 CH4

Emission Reduction Obtained from Switching from 50 ppm Sulfur to 10 ppm S Gasoline Fuel in Euro 3 and Euro 4 Gasoline Vehicles

Euro 3 Gasoline Vehicle Euro 4 Gasoline Vehicle

%

PM Emission Reduction in the Road Transport in Bangkok from the Implementation of Euro 5/6 Roadmap

PM

Em

issi

on

Re

du

ctio

n f

rom

R

oad

Tra

nsp

ort

(%

)

PM

Em

issi

on

fro

m R

oad

Tr

ansp

ort

(kt

)

Euro 4

Euro 5 & 6

Euro 4

Euro 5 & 6 Euro 5 & 6

BMR BMR


PM

Em

issi

on

fro

m R

oad

Tr

ansp

ort

(kt

)

PM

Em

issi

on

fro

m R

oad

Tr

ansp

ort

(kt

)

Euro 4

Euro 5 & 6

Euro 4

Euro 5 & 6

Leapfrog to Euro 6

LDV & HDV

LDV & HDV

Euro 6

Euro 4

5

33.2

58.1

74

82.486.3

5.1

38.4

62.5

76.5

83.686.7

0.1

5.2 4.4 2.51.2 0.4

0

20

40

60

80

100

2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Euro 5 and then 6 vs Leapfroging to Euro 6Euro 5 and then 6

Leapfrog to Euro 6

Additional Emission Reduction Gainedfrom Leapfroging to Euro 6

PM

Em

issi

on

Re

du

ctio

n f

rom

Ro

ad T

ran

spo

rt (

%)

LDV & HDV

PM Emission Reduction in the Road Transport in Bangkok if Leapfrog to Euro 6

NO

x E

mis

sio

n R

ed

uct

ion

fr

om

Ro

ad T

ran

spo

rt (

%)

NO

x E

mis

sio

n f

rom

Ro

ad

Tran

spo

rt (

kt)

Euro 4

Euro 5 & 6

Euro 4

Euro 5 & 6 Euro 5 & 6

BMR BMR


NOx Emission Reduction in the Road Transport in Bangkok from the Implementation of Euro 5/6 Roadmap

Impact on NOX Emission from LDV + HDV if Leapfrog to Euro 6N

Ox

Em

issi

on

fro

m R

oad

Tr

ansp

ort

(kt

)

Euro 4

Euro 5 & 6

Euro 4

Euro 5 & 6

LDV & HDV

LDV & HDV

Leapfrog to Euro 6

NO

x E

mis

sio

n f

rom

Ro

ad

Tran

spo

rt (

kt)

Euro 6

Euro 4

NO

x E

mis

sio

n R

ed

uct

ion

fro

m R

oad

Tra

nsp

ort

(%

)0.4

22.8

47.4

63.4

71.775.3

2.5

36

57.7

69.5

74.8 76.8

2.1

13.2 10.36.1 3.1 1.5

0

20

40

60

80

100

2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Euro 5 and then 6 vs Leapfroging to Euro 6

Euro 5 and then 6

Leapfrog to Euro 6

Additional Emission ReductionGained from Leapfroging to Euro 6

LDV & HDV

NOx Emission Reduction in the Road Transport in Bangkok if Leapfrog to Euro 6

Thank you for your attention

Documents

Implementing Vehicle Emission Standards and Equivalent ... · • Euro 4 for gasoline and diesel fuels with sulfur not more than 50 ppm • Euro 5 fuels with sulfur not more than