IMPACTS OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN THE NATIONAL CAPITAL

IMPACTS OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN THE NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION

Tim Canan, AICP

Planning Data and Research Program Director

Reston Task Force

May 10, 2021

2

About COG

Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the National Capital Region

May 10, 2021

• Metropolitan Washington Council of

Governments (COG) is an

independent, nonprofit association

of local governments

• Brings area leaders together to

address major regional issues in

the District of Columbia, suburban

Maryland and Northern Virginia

• Membership comprises 300 elected

officials from 22 local governments,

the Maryland and Virginia state

legislatures, and U.S. Congress

3

About TPB


May 10, 2021

• National Capital Region

Transportation Planning Board

(TPB) is the federally-designated

Metropolitan Planning

Organization (MPO) for the region

• Plays an important role as the

regional forum for transportation

planning

• Prepares plans and programs that

the federal government must

approve for federal-aid

transportation funds to flow to

metropolitan Washington

4

COVID Cases & Deaths in Washington, DC Metro Area

New York Times Cases & Deaths Tracker: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-cases-deaths-tracker.html#USA-

MSA47900. The Times uses reports from state, county and regional health departments.

March 1 Update: Over several days, Virginia added many deaths that occurred earlier in 2021.


May 10, 2021

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-cases-deaths-tracker.html#USA-MSA47900

5

Non-Farm Jobs (000s) - Washington MSAMarch 2019 to March 2021

(Bureau of Labor Statistics, Not Seasonally-adjusted, Thousands)


May 10, 2021

Revised BLS data show the region lost 370,900 jobs between March and April of

2020. As of March 2021, 182,700 jobs have been added during our partial reopening.

3,322.6

3,336.0

2,965.1

3,147.8

2,250

2,500

2,750

3,000

3,250

3,500

6

Unemployment Rate Washington MSA and US


May 10, 2021

Our unemployment rate nearly tripled with the onset of the pandemic but was still

nearly 5 points below the nation. With partial reopening, the national and local rates did

converge in late 2020, but the local rate so far in 2021 is again below the national rate.

4.5%

14.4%

13.0%

11.2%10.5%

8.5%7.7%

6.6% 6.4% 6.5% 6.8% 6.6% 6.2%

3.2%

9.4%8.7% 8.7%

8.4%7.8%

6.9%6.4% 6.4% 6.5% 6.0% 5.8% 5.6%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

Ma

r-2

0

Ap

r-2

0

Ma

y-2

0

Jun

-20

Jul-2

0

Au

g-2

0

Se

p-2

0

Oct-

20

No

v-2

0

De

c-2

0

Jan

-21

Fe

b-2

1

Ma

r-2

1

US Washington MSA

7

Over-the-year Job Change By Sector March 2021 vs March 2020

Washington MSA (Thousands)

The most-current employment data shows job losses to be in hospitality, retail,

and several service industry sectors.


May 10, 2021

-0.6

-3.5

-17.0

-11.8

-4.7

-7.5

-13.0

-27.0

-87.3

-74.8

-19.0

-8.6

5.1

-140 -120 -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20

Manufacturing

Mining, Logging, & Construction

Trade, Transportation, & Utilities

[Retail]

Information

Financial Activites

Professional & Business Services

Educational & Health Services

Leisure & Hospitality

[Accommodation and Food Services]

Other Services

Government

[Federal]

8

-343.400 -367.300 -370.900 -372.000 -405.800-453.600 -471.300

-585.500

-961.500

-1,810.300

-2,000

-1,800

-1,600

-1,400

-1,200

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

Houston Atlanta Washington

San

Francisco Dallas Boston Philadelphia Chicago Los Angeles New York

(Th

ou

sa

nd

s o

f Jo

bs)

Non-Farm Job Loss March to April 2020 In 10 Largest MSAs

(Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Revised Data 3/21)

Our initial job losses were among the lowest when compared to many of our peer

regions. New York and Los Angeles experienced the most severe losses.


May 10, 2021

9Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the National Capital Region

May 10, 2021

Change in Office Vacancy RatesQ1 2020 vs Q1 2021

(Source: CoStar)

Office vacancy rates have increased slightly throughout the region. Office leases

are for longer-term periods and will be monitored for changes.

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18%

NorthernVirginia

SuburbanMaryland

District ofColumbia

Q1 2020

Q1 2021

10Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the National Capital Region

May 10, 2021

Change in Retail Vacancy RatesQ1 2020 vs Q1 2021

(Source: CoStar)

Retail vacancy rates have also increased slightly throughout the region. Retail

space is very susceptible to COVID-related closures and will also be monitored.

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%

NorthernVirginia

SuburbanMaryland

District ofColumbia

Q1 2020

Q1 2021

11

Air travel has recovered somewhat at the region’s three major airports since

April 2020 but remains much lower than 2019.

Air Travel

Source: COG

0

800

1,600

2,400

3,200

4,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

En

pla

ne

me

nts

in

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

2019 and 2020 Monthly Enplanements

at Washington/Baltimore Regional Airports

2019 2020


May 10, 2021

12

Worksite Operations

96% of Worksites Shut Down or Reduced On-site Operation Either

Completely (81%) or Partially (15%) Since Coronavirus Pandemic

Began

All worksites shut

down/reduced operation,

81%

Some shut down/reduced

operation, 15%

All worksites remained

open/employees on site, 4%

Source: Commuter Connections 2020 Employer Telework Survey


May 10, 2021

13

Change in Daily Travel Since March 2020


May 10, 2021

66%

19%

9%6%

A lot Some A little None

Two-thirds of

respondents report their

daily travel habits have

changed a lot since the

beginning of the COVID-

19 pandemic. Source: COG/TPB “2020 Voices of the Region Survey,” 2021.

December, -20.4%November, -18.2%

October, -17.3%September, -18.5%

August, -19.2%July, -19.8%

June, -25.5%May, -37.5%

April, -50.5%March, -21.9%

February, 2.4%January, 3.8%

TPB Region - Monthly Average Percent Change from Equivalent 2019 Month

14

Roadway Traffic Volumes: Region

Regional traffic volumes, which in April 2020 had dipped below 50% of 2019

volumes, had recovered to over 80% of 2019 volumes by July, and continued a

slow recovery through October 2020. Volumes, however, decreased once again

region-wide in November and again in December 2020.

Source: COG/TPB


May 10, 2021

15

Metrorail and Metrobus Ridership

WMATA Regional Bus Ridership Workshop, November 17, 2020. COVID Ridership Trends, Diane Patterson.

Ridership decreased as a result of both reduced demand and reduced transit

capacity, underscoring the complex interrelationship of supply and demand on

transit. This contrasts to roadway volume decreases, which resulted from

demand reductions.


May 10, 2021

16

Preferences of Current Teleworkers


May 10, 2021

If given the choice to return to a work location

once the COVID-19 pandemic is over, would

you prefer to…?

Source: COG/TPB “2020 Voices of the Region Survey,” 2021.

9%

26%

65%

Return to work location

full-time

Telework full-time

Telework some days

and commute to work

location some days

17

Considerations

• How will teleworking influence land use development and travel

patterns in the region?

• How will housing demand, including location, be influenced?

• Will the fundamental social and economic structure of the region’s

economy undergo change?

• What transportation investments are needed to meet demands of a

new normal AND meet ongoing demands of essential workers and

elements of the region that will go unchanged?

• How does the region balance the critical need to respond to new

short-term realities after the pandemic while continuing to make

long-term land use and transportation decisions for our

communities?


May 10, 2021

Timothy Canan, AICP

TPB Planning Data and Research Program Director

(202) 962-3280

[email protected] mwcog.org

Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments

777 North Capitol Street NE, Suite 300

Washington, DC 20002

mailto:[email protected]

Documents

IMPACTS OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN THE NATIONAL CAPITAL