DowntownSeattlefromtheSpaceNeedlewebcam,August3,2017,PM2.5 =57µg/m3

Impactsofthe2017WildfiresonO3aroundthePNWDanJaffe,CrystalMcClure,Honglian Gao,Claire

Buysse,AaronKaulfus (UAH)UniversityofWashington

FundingfromNOAA-FIREXprogram

NOAA-HMSFireandSmokeProductwithPM2.5Sept.6th,2017

<12ug/m3

12.1-35.5ug/m3

35.5-55.5ug/m3

55.5– 150.5ug/m3

>150.5ug/m3

Airnowtech toolwithHMSsmokeandPM2.5Aug3,2017

DailyO3 inEnumclaw,WA

HighestO3 inlast10years,Aug3,2017,103ppb

ObservedandAIRPACTfireimpactsforKennewick

ArehighPMlevelssuppressingO3formation?

ObservedPM2.5 ObservedO3

PM2.5 O3

ResultsfromBoise,Summer2017

6

Averages PM2.5µg/m3

COppb

MDA8ppb

NOyppbv

PANppb

PAN/NOyppb/ppb

Fireinfluenced

34.5 464 58.4* 17.3 0.90 0.0626

Non-fireinfluenced

9.2 261 41.5 14.1 0.61 0.0479

1. Experimentdates:Aug1-Oct1,2017;45dayswithsmoke!2. EnhancementinMDA8onsmokedays:~17ppb.3. Smokedayshad~3ppbmoreNOy,butonly~0.3ppbmorePAN.4. BothNOy andVOCslikelycontributedtotheenhancedO3.

(McClureandJaffe,2018)

ResultsfromBoise,Summer2017

7McClureandJaffe,2018(in-review)

8

HowdoO3 andPMrelateinurbansmokeevents?AfternoonO3 whenHMSshowssmokeoverhead.

Ø AfternoonO3(1-6pm)forMay-Sept2013-2017for7citiesinwesternU.S.(NorthBendWA,PortlandOR,St.Lukes IR,EugeneOR,ChicoCA,ArdenArcade/SacramentoCA.

Ø HMSsmokeproductisnotaperfectindicatorofboundarylayer smoke.PMandO3positivelycorrelatedupto~50µg/m3

, negativelycorrelatedoruncorrelatedathigherconcs.

Ø WorkofClaireBuysse (UW)

SinceEulerianmodelshavedifficultyinmodelingwildfireO3,howcanwefindthe“extraO3”duetothefires?

• WehavedevelopedastatisticalapproachthatmodelsO3 asafunctionofnumerousmeteorologicalvariables.

• WeuseGeneralizedAdditiveModeling(GAM),whichisaflexiblemethod,similartomachinelearningthatusesatrainingdatasettoidentifypatternsandrelationships.Thisapproachcanincorporatelinear,non-linearandcategoricalrelationships.

• GoodO3 predictorsaredailymaxtemp,RH,dailyavg vectorwindspeed,dailyaveragevectorwinddirection,back-trajectorydistanceanddirection,500mb heights,etc.

• Modelcancapturebetween50-80%ofthevarianceindailyMDA8s,dependingonthecity.

• Gongetal2017(EST). 9

StatisticalApproach:GeneralizedAdditiveModelØ Examinestherelationshipbetweentheobservedmaximumdaily8-

houraverage(MDA8)andmeteorologicalfactors.Thisisatypeof“machinelearning”usingatrainingdataset.

g(O3i)=f1(tempi)+f2 (WSi)+f3 (WDi)+…+residualiWheref1, f2,etc are“link”functionswhichareobtainedfromsplinefitsto

theobservations.The“i”referstoeachdailyobservation.Ø GAMscanincorporatenumerical,ordinalorcategoricalvariables.Ø Possiblefactorstoincludearetemp,WS,WD,RH,solarflux,trajectory

distance,etc.Ø Use“mgcv”packagein“R”software.Ø Outliers(highresiduals)representanadditionalO3 sourceandare

candidatesforfurtherinvestigation.Insomecases,statisticalmodelingcansupportexceptionaleventdesignations.

Jaffeetal2004;2013;Camalier etal2007;CARB2011;EPA2015;Sun2015;Gongetal2017

ImpactonO3 insmokeatEnumclaw:2008-2017data

Gongetal2017,Jaffeetal2018,Gaoetal2018

Aug.3rd,2017ExtraO3 duetofiresis27ppb

Enumclaw-August2017

• Aug.3rd:• PM2.556ug/m3• O3 residual=27ppb

• Aug.9th:• PM2.546ug/m3• O3 residual27ppb

MDA8vs DailyMaxTemp-Enumclaw

MDA8vs DailyMaxTemp-EnumclawNosmokeg.t.70F:MDA8=DMT*1.68– 84.86

Smokeg.t.70F:MDA8=DMT*1.93- 100.85

-30

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GAMfito

zone

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8resid

uals(ppb

v)

Dailymaximumambienttemperature(oF)

Enumclaw,WA

non-smokedays smoke

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60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110

GAMfito

zone

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uals(ppb

v)

Dailymaximumambienttemperature(oF)

Kennewick,WA

"non-smokedays

smokedays

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zone

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8resid

uals(pp

bv)

Maximumdailyambienttemperature(oF)

Vancouver,WA

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uals

Dailymaximumambienttemperature(oF)

Eugene,OR

non-smokedays smokedays

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Dailymaximumambienttemperature(oF)

Portland,OR

Series2 non-smoke

SomekeyConclusionsonsmoke• SmokeeffectsontheMDA8aregenerallysubtleadding,onaverage~5-8ppbtotheMDA8(range0-30ppb)

• SmokeimpactsonO3 aremostsignificantonwarmdays,whenO3 wouldhavebeenhighalready.

• AtveryhighPMlevels(>60ug/m3)smokeimpactsonO3arereduced.

Arefiresgettingworse?

Summer2017:Worstairqualityindecades

Summer2017:Worstairqualityindecades

Trendin98th percentileofPM2.5 for1988-2016

McClureandJaffe,PNAS,in-press.

Summary• Summer2017hadtheworstairqualityindecadesforbothPMand

O3 intheNWduetowildfires.• Satellitedataprovidecriticalinformationonfiresandsmoke

transport,butnotnecessarilysurfacelevelPM.WhenHMSsmokepresent,wefindanenhancementinsurfacePM40-70%ofthetimeinPNW.

• Wildfireemissionscan enhanceO3 inurbanareas.Weuseastatisticalmodeltoshowthatfirescontribute0-30ppb(8-houraverage),whichissufficienttoputmanysitesoverthe70ppbstandard.SmokeimpactsonO3 aregreatestonwarmdays.

• AthighPM2.5 (greaterthan~60ug/m3)O3 enhancementsarereduced.

• Overthelastseveraldecadestheannual98th percentileforPM2.5concentrationsareincreasingduetowildfires overlargepartsofthewesternU.S.

Spares

NOAAHMSFireandSmokeProduct(viaAirnowtech)Sept.8th,2017

Butsatellitesensorsonlyshowwhatisinthecolumnoverhead.NeedtocombinewithsurfacePMobservations.

HMSdays/HMSdayswithPM(2006-2017data)

LocationDays peryearwithHMSsmoke

FractionofHMSdayswithenhanced PM

Arden/Sacramento,CA 35.8 0.53Chico,CA 40.6 0.69

St.Lukes/Boise,ID 43.0 0.74NorthBend,WA 23.6 0.54Vancouver,WA 26.5 0.45Enumclaw,WA 24.8 0.40Eugene,OR 31.7 0.53Portland,OR 26.5 0.42ElPaso,TX 11.9 0.19Houston,TX 32.4 0.28

*0.39forMay-Sept.

EnhancedPMisdefinedasmean+1SDofnon-HMSsmokedays.