Impacts of Drought in thImpacts of Drought in the Philippinese Philippines

byby

Rosalina G. de GuzmanRosalina G. de Guzman22

1Presented at the International Workshop on Drought and Extreme Temperatures: Preparedness and Management for Sustainable Agriculture, Forestry

2Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration, QuezonCity, Philippines

Department of Science and TechnologyDepartment of Science and TechnologyPhilippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

OutOutlineline

2. Impacts of Drought2. Impacts of Drought

4. Drought and Early Warning System4. Drought and Early Warning System

3. Adaptation Strategies 3. Adaptation Strategies

1. Background Information1. Background Information

Background informationBackground informationThe PhilippinesThe Philippines a natural disastera natural disaster--prone countryprone country

•• large number of islands (>7,000);large number of islands (>7,000);•• vast, irregular coastline (17,000 vast, irregular coastline (17,000 kmskms););•• an average of 19.6 tropical cyclones a year (with 8 to 9 an average of 19.6 tropical cyclones a year (with 8 to 9

crossing the country triggering floods/landslides);crossing the country triggering floods/landslides);•• abundant rainfall, yet some areas are semiabundant rainfall, yet some areas are semi--arid; andarid; and•• statistically significant increases in daytime/nighttime statistically significant increases in daytime/nighttime

temperatures. temperatures.

Major drought years are associated Major drought years are associated with El Nino eventswith El Nino events

El Nino years are associated with less El Nino years are associated with less number of typhoonsnumber of typhoons

An increase of 0.6104°C from 1951-2006

Observed Mean Annual Mean Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines Period: 1951-2006 (departures from the 1961-1990 normal values)

y = 0.0109x - 0.2423

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 01 06

Year

Tem

pera

ture

Ano

mal

y (°

C)

Anomaly

5 year running mean

Linear (5 year running mean)

••Tropical Cyclones tracks in the WNPTropical Cyclones tracks in the WNP

Tracks of tropical cyclones that formed in the Western North Pacific (WNP) during the period 1948-2006 1728 TC ( 1148 entered the PAR) 66% of TC in in WNP enter or formed in the PAR

ANNUAL FREQUENCY OF OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES WITHIN THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF

RESPONSIBILITY (PAR)

21

27

17

12

23

15

2119

2422 23

2123

14

20

17

21

16

201917

19

15

32

25

1618 17

11

16

1817

13

19.4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02

Y E A R

An average of 19.6 or 20.0 tropical cyclones (all categories) entered/developed in the PAR and 8 or 9 made landfall/crossing the Philippines annually.

Reduced Stream flow

Declining Groundwater Level

Insufficient Water for Irrigation

Total Crop Loss

Limiting Water Supply for Farm Household Needs

Impacts to Agriculture Drought

The Philippine Agriculture

3.46 2.9

-6.6

6.49

4.563.95

3.14

4.81

2.24

3.88

-10

-5

0

5

10

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2003 2004 2005 2006

Ave. Growth rate = 3.69% (2001 – 2005)

Ave. Growth rate = 1.95% (1996 - 1999)

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98

Year

Pala

y P

rodu

ctio

n ( x

100

0 M

T)

El Nino

El NinoEl Nino El Nino

El Nino impacts on rice production

Impacts of droughtImpacts of drought• Crop failure

• Reduced irrigated areas

State of calamity in La Union Philippine Star Jul 31, 2007

Angat water supply down to critical level

Actual monthly inflows compared with the normal values (1968Actual monthly inflows compared with the normal values (1968--1998) for 1998) for AngatAngatreservoir in Luzon during selected El Nireservoir in Luzon during selected El Niñño years (million cubic meters).o years (million cubic meters).

Month1991-1992 1997-1998

Actual Normal% of

Normal Actual Normal% of

Normal

October 68.0 304 22 90.2 304 30

November 181.0 291 62 43.4 291 15

December 113.0 211 53 86.9 211 41

January 62.0 101 61 52.0 101 51

February 29.0 57 51 28.0 57 49

March 15.0 51 29 20.9 51 41

Total 468.0 1015 46 321.4 1015 31.6

IMPACTS TO WATER SUPPLYIMPACTS TO WATER SUPPLY(water shortage)(water shortage)

• Less water for domestic use

• Loss of target collection / income

• Additional operational cost

- Occurrence of water-borne diseases

• Water quality problems

IMPACTS TO IRRIGATION (water shortage)IMPACTS TO IRRIGATION (water shortage)

• Loss of target collection to NIA (irrigation Service Fee)

• Reduction of farmers income

• Opportunity loss for NIA

• Increase in the no. of crimes

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Prod

uctio

n/H

arve

sted

Are

a

Production (M T) Area Harvested (ha)

Irrigated Palay Production in AMRIS

1 – First Semester Harvest (Nov – Mar cropping season/dry) 2 – Second Semester Harvest (Jun – Oct cropping season/wet)

1998 (1) - 86.60 %

1998 (2) - 43.94 %

Impacts on Irrigation

IMPACTS TO HYDROPOWER (water shortage)IMPACTS TO HYDROPOWER (water shortage)

• Opportunity losses

• Increase in the use of other sources of power such as coal, thermal, etc.

Impacts on Hydropower

58.958.9--50.5450.5435.2235.2285.7685.7633

64.764.7--50.4850.4827.5027.5077.9877.9822

74.174.1--98.9898.9834.6134.61133.59133.591119981998

66.066.0--92.1792.1747.4447.44139.61139.6144

24.424.4--20.9220.9264.8464.8485.7685.7633

26.426.4--20.6020.6057.3857.3877.9877.982219971997

% Reduction% ReductionDifferenceDifferenceActual Actual Generation Generation

(GWH)(GWH)

1010--Yr. Ave Yr. Ave (GWH)(GWH)

QuarterQuarterYearYear

622,106 mt of rice production loss and 565,240 mt of corn amounting to P 3 B; water shortages; forest fires and human health impacts

About 70 % of the Philippines experienced severe drought; about 292,000 hectares of rice and corn area completely damaged

8. 1997-1998

P4.09 Billion agri-cultural losses; 20% shortfall in Metro Manila water supply

Severe drought affected Mindanao, Central and Western Visayas and Cagayan Valley; affected agricultural areas of 461,800 hectares

7. 1991-1992

Estimated 5x105 mt of rice and corn production losses; hydropower gene-ration loss of P348 M; 10% cutback in water production in Metro Manila

Drought affected Cagayan Valley, Panay Island, Guimaras, Palawan and Southern Mindanao; affected rice and corn area totalled 283,562 hectares; major multipurpose water reservoirs reduced inflow

6. 1989-1990Oct. 1989 -March 1990

Estimated hydro energy generation loss was P671 MSevere drought affected mainland of Luzon, Central Visayas and Western Mindanao

Apr. 1987 -Sept. 1987

Estimated agricultural damages of P47 M Severe drought affected Bicol Region, Southern Negros, Cebu and Western Mindanao

5. 1986-1987Oct. 1986 -March 1987

Rice and corn pro- duction loss of 6.4x105 mt; insurance claims amounted to P38 M; hydropower generation loss was P316 M

Western and Central Luzon, Southern TagalogProvinces, Northern Visayas, Bohol and Western Mindanao

Moderate to severe drought affected most of Luzon, Negros Occidental and Iloilo

4. 1982-1983Oct. 1982 -March 1983Apr. 1983 -Sept. 1983

Total loss of 7.5x105 mt of rice and corn productionThe whole of Mindanao except Davao3. 1977-1978

Total loss of 6.3x105 mt of rice and corn productionCentral Luzon, Palawan, Visayas and Mindanao2. 1972-1973

Total of 5x105 mtof rice and corn production

Moderate to severe drought over most of the Philippines with Bicol Region as most severely affected

1. 1968-1969

DamagesAreas AffectedDate of Occurrence

List of Drought Events in the Philippines During the Period 1968 - 1998

What can be done?What can be done?Other Institutional Responses /Interventions NDCC to proactively address the impending issue on water crisis

National agencies and LGUs to work together to monitor ground water levels

Dry spell/Drought Mitigation Plan (risk & impact assessment, mitigation & response strategies)

Crop insurance

Adaptation StrategiesAdaptation Strategies

1.1. Utilization of drought andUtilization of drought andsubmergence tolerant rice varieties submergence tolerant rice varieties (2008(2008--dry season) dry season)

GMAGMA--RICERICE

2. Use of improved crop varieties that are resistant to pest and diseases(2006 – 2007)

Bureau of Agricultural Research (BAR) and PhilRice

Bureau of Agricultural Research and CLSU

P 5.0 MSource: BSWM

Adaptation StrategiesAdaptation Strategies

3.  Sustainable System of Irrigated Agriculture (SSIA) P 50.0 M (2008‐2010)National Irrigation AdministrationDepartment of Environment and Natural Resources

Source: BSWM

4.  LOCALIZED IRRIGATION (DRIP IRRIGATION – water is applied by wetting only a part of the soil in the field through emitter.

Highly efficient as water is conveyed through a pipe system;

Water is applied directly to each plant such that only the soil near each plant is wetted;

Facilitates fertigation and thus, could increase yield by 20% to 70%

Suitable in steep and undulating slopes, and sandy soilsDRIP IRRIGATION

Adaptation StrategiesAdaptation Strategies

Source: BSWM

Adaptation StrategiesAdaptation Strategies

5.   NIA has embarked a program  to  repair and  rehabilitate more  than  300,000  ha  of  unserviceable  irrigated farmlands  

2006 – 2010

Storage Dams

Diversion Dams

Source: BSWM

Adaptation StrategiesAdaptation Strategies

6.   Intensify establishment of   rainwater harvesting  structures (e.g. SWIP)

P 1.5 B (2008 – 2010)

Bureau of Soils and Water management

7. Monitoring, provision of shallow tube wells, and fingerling dispersal to vulnerable areas with high impact to Inland aquaculture P 35.5 M Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources 7

Source: BSWM

Adaptation StrategiesAdaptation Strategies

8.   NIA has embarked a program  to  repair and  rehabilitate more  than  300,000  ha  of  unserviceable  irrigated farmlands  

2006 – 2010

Storage Dams

Diversion Dams

Source: BSWM

Adaptation StrategiesAdaptation Strategies

9.  Intensify establishment of   rainwater harvesting  structures (e.g. SWIP)

P 1.5 B (2008 – 2010)

Bureau of Soils and Water management

10. Monitoring, provision of shallow tube wells, and fingerling dispersal to vulnerable areas with high impact to Inland aquaculture P 35.5 M Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources 

Impacts of Extreme Dry Condition

A. Rainfed agricultural areas will be severely affected

B. Potential reduction in stream flows and water yield of the different water resources;

• Small streams and creeks• Small run-of-the-river irrigation systems• Farm ponds, small water reservoirs, and lakes• Large rivers• Large and major reservoirs• Groundwater source; unconfined and confined shallow

aquifers, deep aquifers

C. Potential increase in crop water requirements due to increase in crop evapo-transpiration; reduction in irrigated areas

Drought Early Warning and Monitoring SystemDrought Early Warning and Monitoring System

DATA BASES HISTORICAL NORMALS

EPISODIC EVENTS

INFORMATION FROM OTHER SOURCES

ANALYSIS/ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGIES AND

PROCEDURES

NEAR REAL-TIME METEOROLOGICAL DATA

CLIMATE UPDATES AND FORECASTS/DROUGHT ADVISORIES/POTENTIAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT

END USERS

1. Inter-Agency Committee on Water Crisis Management2. National Disaster Coordinating Council3. Inter-Agency Technical Working Group on Cereals and

Feed Grains4. El Niño / La Niña Task Force5. Media6. General Public and other End-Users

For more Information, VISIT us at

http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph

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