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Impact of Sequestration on Commercial Airlines and Business Aviation
Dr. Tulinda LarsenVice President
Mobile. +1 (443) 510-3566
Courtney Jones HrycayVice President, Business Development
Tel: +1 617-283-9668
4833 Rugby Avenue, Suite 301
Bethesda, Maryland 20814
www.masflight.com
March 28, 2013
Executive Summary• This study analyzes three impacts on commercial and business aviation
– FAA announced closure of 149 airport towers
• 55 airports with scheduled service
– 1,500 scheduled weekly flights (passenger and cargo)
• 10,600 weekly flights
– 6,500 Part 91/125 weekly flights
– 4,100 Part 135/121 weekly flights
– CBP proposed reduction of nighttime services to minimize overtime
• 27 U.S. airports have international arrivals between 10pm and 6am
• 9,800 international flights into U.S. airports arrived at night in 1Q2013
• 1.8 million seats @ 80% LF ~ 1.5 million passengers affected quarterly
– TSA potential reductions between 10pm-6am
• 26,000 Passenger flights (based on January 2013)
• 12,000 Cargo flights
• 6,000 Business/General Aviation flights
E X E C U T I V E S U M M A R Y
What is Sequestration?
• Mandatory across-the-board federal spending cuts
• Called for in 2011 congressional legislation if other deficit-reduction measures not enacted
• Initial round of automatic budget cuts to federal agencies has begun
– 8% reduction in 2013
• Sequestration will cut defense and non-defense programs by $1 trillion over nine years
• Unless Congress changes the law passed in 2011, the budget cuts will have a lasting impact over 9 years
D E F I N I T I O N S
Sequestration Impacts on Aviation
A V I A T I O N
• Many programs not subject to cuts
― Airport Improvement Program
― Facilities and Equipment
― Research
• Closing 149 control towers
• Other staff reductions expected
• Customs & Border Patrol proposes reducing overtime by limiting overnight services
• TSA hiring freeze
― Up to an additional 1,000 vacancies by Memorial Day Weekend
― Up to 2,600 vacancies by the end of the fiscal year
Federal Aviation Administration
Department of Homeland Security
FAA Announced 149 Tower Closures• 55 with scheduled passenger airline service
– 14 EAS
• 10,600 weekly flights on a filed flight plan (excludes VFR and local traffic)
– 6,500 Part 91/125 weekly flights
– 4,100 Part 135/121 weekly flights
T O W E R C L O S I N G S
Dots indicate tower closures; Red dots are airports with scheduled service
Source: OAG Schedules; masFlight analysis; gcmap.comNote: Based on scheduled service March 1 – 7, 2013; scheduled service includes scheduled charter flights, cargo flights, and passenger flights
FAA Tower Closings
The 55 Airports are Served by 15 Airlines
AA21%
DL19%
UA14%
US13%
Pacific Wings10%
Seaport6%
Island Air4% Others
14%
Scheduled Passenger Flights by Marketing Carrier Airports Affected by Tower Closures
T O W E R C L O S I N G S
Source: OAG Schedules; masFlight analysisNote: Based on schedules for March 1 – March 7, 2013Other airlines include Aeromexico, Alaska Airlines, Cape Air, Allegiant Air, Great Lakes Airlines, Frontier Airlines, Spirit Airlines, ExecAir
Many of the affected airports could have 10+ impacted flights per hour at peak times
T O W E R C L O S I N G S
Up to 5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45+
26
44
24 23
11 106
2 1 2
Distribution of Airports By Average Number of “Daily” Impacted Flights
Airports Affected by Tower Closures
Average Number of Daily Operations with a Flight Plan Filed
Co
un
t o
f A
irp
ort
s
Source: ASDI radar data – Part 91/151 flying and Part 135/121 flying – March 1-7, 2013; masFlight analysisNote: Average “daily“ operations based on 5-day week
Impact of Tower Closures
• What does it mean for a tower to close?
– A tower closure does not mean the airport will be closed.
– Rather, pilots will face arrival and departure delays, particularly during bad weather conditions, as regional air traffic control facilities (located away from the airport) sequence and meter arrivals and departure clearances to maintain aircraft separation.
– masFlight expects that the impact on delays and congestion will be substantial, as some of the impacted airports have as many as 10 flights per hour during peak times.
T O W E R C L O S I N G S
CBP Proposed Overtime Reduction Will Impact Overnight Passenger Flights
• 27 US airports have overnight international passenger flight arrivals
C U S T O M & B O R D E R P A T R O L
Source: OAG Schedules; masFlight analysisNote: Based on schedules for January 1 – March 31, 2013; overnight defined as 10pm-6am; excludes flights arriving from international airports with pre-clearance facilities
Airports with Scheduled Overnight International Passenger Flight Arrivals
International Arriving Flights Potentially Will Impact 1.5M Passengers / Quarter
9,800 flights with 1.8M seats @ 80% LF = 1.5M passengers impacted
10:00-10:59 pm
11:00-11:59 pm
12:00-12:59 am
1:00-1:59 am
2:00-2:59 am
3:00-3:59 am
4:00-4:59 am
5:00-5:59 am
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Scheduled International Capacity into U.S. by Arrival TimeJanuary 1 – March 31, 2013
Scheduled Arrival Time
Arr
ivin
g P
as
se
ng
er
Se
ats
C U S T O M & B O R D E R P A T R O L
Source: OAG Schedules; masFlight analysisNote: Based on schedules for January 1 – March 31, 2013; excludes flights arriving from airports with pre-clearance facilities
JFK, Miami, Guam and Newark Will Face the Greatest Impact of CBP Cutbacks
C U S T O M & B O R D E R P A T R O L
JFK24%
MIA21%
GUM14%
EWR8%
LAX6%
ATL5%
IAH4%
ORD3% Other
14%
Scheduled International Overnight Arriving SeatsJanuary 1-March 31, 2013
Source: OAG Schedules; masFlight analysisNote: Based on schedules for January 1 – March 31, 2013; excludes flights arriving from airports with pre-clearance facilities
TSA Cutbacks Would Impact Late Night and Early Morning Flights
T S A
Source: OAG Schedules; masFlight analysisNote: Based on schedules for January 2013
10
:00
-10
:59
pm
11
:00
pm
-11
:59
pm
12
:00
am
-12
:59
am
1:0
0-1
:59
am
2:0
0-2
:59
am
3:0
0-3
:59
am
4:0
0-4
:59
am
5:0
0-5
:59
am
10,574
4,201
1,201 783 300 96 369
8,076
Scheduled Departures by Overnight HourFor the month of January 2013
Scheduled Departure Time
De
pa
rtu
res
Nearly 18,000 Cargo and Business Aviation Flights Operate Overnight
T S A
Source: FAA; masFlight analysisNote: Based on FAA data for January 1 – January 31, 2013
10
:00
-10
:59
pm
11
:00
pm
-11
:59
pm
12
:00
am
-12
:59
am
1:0
0-1
:59
am
2:0
0-2
:59
am
3:0
0-3
:59
am
4:0
0-4
:59
am
5:0
0-5
:59
am
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Cargo and General Aviation Traffic by Departure TimeJanuary 2013
General AviationCargo
Actual Departure Time
De
pa
rtin
g F
ligh
ts
Conclusions
• masFlight concludes that sequestration impacts commercial and business aviation on three levels:
– 149 tower closures will lead to arrival and departure delays
– Significant customs wait times and for more than 1.5 million passengers (quarterly) held on aircraft or flights rescheduled until customs agents begin their scheduled morning shifts.
– Each month, over 26,000 passenger flights and 18,000 cargo / business aviation flights depart U.S. airports between 10pm to 6am, thus reduced TSA overnight staffing could have a widespread impact on late-night and early morning departures across the country.
C O N C L U S I O N S
• Reliable gate-to-gate flight records
• Global data footprint
• Real-time (within 30 min) and historical (from 2009) analysis
• Multisource linked data: schedules, gates, delay/cancellation, and weather
• Designed for operations, planning and research across airports, airlines and alliances
• Searchable, usable information via web app, database connection, or customized solution
What is masFlight?
W H A T W E D O
Global aviation operations data platform
Our Platform
O U R P L A T F O R M
Multisource, integrated airline operations data
Our platform shows where, when and why problems occur
• Benchmark competitorsand alliance partners
• Examine diversions, cancellations, delays and determine root causes
• Deep-dive into airport gates, taxi times, and runway patterns
• Analyze air space usage and air traffic management
Planned Flight Schedules
Multisource Flight Status
Global WeatherData and Maps
AirlineOps Data
U.S. Radar Data
Airline FleetInformation
Airport Gate & Terminal Data
AirportRunway Data
Key Partners and Suppliers:
masFlight TeamDeep experience in aviation analytics and software development
Joshua MarksCEO
Experience in software startups (Virtualis, VelociGen, Fonality) and airlines (MAXjet, American, Delta, Allegiant and Spirit). MBA and BA from Harvard. Licensed pilot.
Rodrigo NavarroChief Technology Officer
Systems engineer and cloud data expert with 20 years experience in IT development and ops management. Managed global operations, Sybase. PMM from Stanford GSB, MBA and BS from Universidad del Norte.
Edmund OtubuahDirector of Aviation Products
Operations research and planning at JetBlue, including data collection, analytics and management reporting. Additional experience in marketing metrics and measurements. BS from Embry Riddle. Licensed pilot.
T E A M O V E R V I E W
Tulinda LarsenVP Sales and Marketing
30 years experience developing, selling and marketing aviation data and software solutions. Managing director of airline ops consulting group. Doctorate, UMUC. MA and BA from George Washington. Licensed pilot.
Courtney Jones HrycayVP Business Development
Operations research expert with airline management experience. Operations analysis at JetBlue and Southwest. Aviation, aerospace & defense consultant at Oliver Wyman. MBA from MIT Sloan, BSE from Princeton University.
Pete WestVP Government and Public Affairs
Experienced government and public affairs executive for Delta Air Lines, National Business Aviation Association and the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) / Joint Planning Development Office. BA political science from Davidson College.
