Impact of Power RationingOn the Tanzanian Economy

20 April 2006

2

Quantification of Impact

Based on TANESCO 1980 study Cost of “un-served” energy is US$1.0 per kWh

A 2004 study result was US$2.0 per kWh Reflecting increased electricity use in the

economy

Source: World Bank - Tanzania

3

World Bank Shortage Estimate

Unserved Energy

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2006

M k

Wh

Source: World Bank - Tanzania

4

World Bank Shortage Estimate

Month Unserved Energy

(Million kWh}Jan 5Feb 42Mar 65Apr 28May 13Jun 31Jul 44

Aug 56

Sep 66

Oct 77Nov 69Dec 63TOTAL 559

Source: World Bank - Tanzania

5

Estimated Cost to the Economy

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov

US

$ M

illi

on

US$1.1 per kWh US$2.0 per kWh

Source: World Bank - Tanzania

6

Estimated Cost to the Economy

Jan 5.5 10Feb 46.2 84Mar 71.5 130Apr 30.8 56May 14.3 26Jun 34.1 62Jul 48.4 88

Aug 61.6 112

Sep 72.6 132

Oct 84.7 154Nov 75.9 138Dec 69.3 126TOTAL 614.9 1,118.00

Cost to Economy assuming

U$1.1/kWh (US$mil)

Month Cost to Economy assuming U$2/kWh (US$Mil )

Source: World Bank - Tanzania

7

Impact on Estimated GDP

Tanzania GDP for 2006 estimated at $614.9 million without power rationing 5% reduction - assuming cost impact of US$1.1

per un-served kWh

9% reduction – assuming cost impact of US$2.0 per un-served kWh

Source: World Bank - Tanzania