Impact of Global Change on the Coastal Areas of the Rio de la Plata: Sea Level Rise and Meteorological Effects

AIACC – LA26 Argentina

Rio de la Plata (physical aspects)

• Estuary zone formed by the junction of the Parana River (16000m3/s) and Uruguay River (6000m3/s).

• Approximately has 300km long and soon reaches a 50km width that increases until 250km at the mouth.

• The Parana Delta is growing and the coastal zone of the San Borombom Bay is retreating by storm surges.

• The flow dynamic is driven by the incoming tidal wave, the discharge of the tributaries and the wind.

• The Coriolis effect makes higher levels of water in Argentina than Uruguay.

Rio de la Plata (socio-economic aspects)

• Argentina coastal area of the Rio de la Plata has the most important concentration of population, urban centers, infrastructure and services of the country.

• The total population of the zone is 11000000 inhabitants, formed by the Buenos Aires City (3000000 inhabitants) and the Big Buenos Aires (8000000 inhabitants).

• The rate of urbanization of this area is 97.5% and the density of population is 1361.7 inhabitants per km2.

PROJECT FRAMEWORK

Impact models:•Meteorological•Hydraulics

Vulnerability Assessment

(social aspects)

Vulnerability Assessment

(economic aspects)

Vulnerability Assessment(institutional

aspects)

Stakeholder Analysis:

Intercosultation with institutions

Risk Assessment: FLOODS

Risk Analysis COPING RANGETHRESHOSLDS

Risk Assessment: EROSION

NEOTECTONICSIdentifyongoing

adaptation strategies

The Current Situation in Argentina

Climate Change is not a priority now.

At Policy Makers level this issue is perceived as a long-term problem (large time scale). It’s scientists matter.

Our Strategies

Build Scientific knowledge

Analyze how to introduce aspects of the problem in transversal

ways related to identifiedongoing adaptation strategies

(Capacity Building in a broad field)

How to influence policy makers?

• The relation with the stakeholders as a continuous process vs. contact them with the final science report

• Reinforced the concepts of Adaptation and Coping Range to address the problem (inside the project and as a strategic approach)

• Not present the Climate Change as a disaster or a catastrophic scenario (add one more problem).

Main tools

• Interconsultation with Stakeholders (Institutions)

• Risk Assessment

- Go beyond isolated consulting to install a communicative process

- Stakeholder as a privileged users and key informants

- Considering physical aspects

- Identifying and working with driver forces

- Making a probabilistic approach

Re-think the linkage between this concepts:

Adaptation Strategies

Vulnerability //Determinants of

Adaptative capacities

COPING RANGE