Impact of COVID-19 on Travel IndustryJune 29, 2020

To help share information about COVID-19 impacts to the travel industry, Travel Oregon’s research team is compiling state and national data on a weekly basis to share with external partners. The data below is this week’s summary and is for informational purposes only.

PDX Airport Data The TSA reported 8,325 passengers utilized the checkpoints on Sunday, an increase of 1,358 over the previous week.

STR Weekly Data (Week of June 21-27) The chart below shows the year over year (YOY) change in Average Daily Rate (ADR), Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR), and Occupancy statewide and per region in Oregon. This data is provided by STR, Inc.

Social Sentiment + Hot Topics After a long and muted 4th of July weekend that saw both muted celebrations and packed crowds, we are entering the critical inflection point. More than 125,000 people have died from COVID-19 in the US, and more than 2.5 million Americans have been infected, with cases rising in 49 states and major epicenters in AZ, CA, TX, and FL.

The mounting infection rates once again led to COVID-19 leading coverage across all platforms this week. Topics driving coverage in/or about Oregon include:

• Oregon topped 10,000 cases over the weekend, driven by four straight days of 300+ new cases.

• Masks continue to be a flashpoint as Oregon’s mandatory mask order went into effect last week. One of the most widely shared stories last week was the incident where a group of Oregon State Police officers refused to wear masks at Corvallis coffee shop. The Governor’s decision to subsequently meet with them and discuss the mask policy was also widely shared (and admired).

The following word cloud shows trending COVID-19 related topics in relation to Oregon:

Other hot topics:

• From the recreation perspective, Oregon State Parks’ decision to shorten the booking window from 14 to 30 days was appreciated and shared; in addition, as people sought socially distant getaways, full campground messages were also widely publicized.

• For the second week in a row, Lincoln City was again in the spotlight. This time it was because seven men were arrested for disorderly conduct and racially harassing a Black family on the beach. Police quickly intervened, arresting the men and escorting the family safely away from the beach.

In addition, longtime local favorite, Lil Sambos is coming under pressure to rename itself. The restaurant’s name “is borrowed from the hero of a fictional story about an Indian boy, tigers, and pancakes written by Helen Bannerman in 1899.” However, the illustrations in the book are reminiscent of “pickaninny” stereotype of Black children in old, racist literature. There is currently a change.org petition underway to pressure the owners and users are also appearing to use the restaurant’s Yelp review to exert pressure

• As stated in an earlier report, Portland’s restaurant scene is undergoing because of the shutdown. This week, the combustible mix COVID-19 and the social justice resulted in the shutdown of the Toro Bravo group restaurants (Toro Bravo, Tasty n Sons, Tasty n Alder, Montage, Irving Street Kitchen). The restaurant group was closed following owner and chef John Gorham’s threatening social media posts against a trans woman of color.

• As RV sales skyrocket and Americans hit the road seeking socially distant vacations, 2020 will inevitably be the summer of the road trip. Even car companies are getting in on the act, as seen by this nostalgic Hyundai ad. But with cases spiking across the country, will this trend change? This CNN story examines the complexities facing destinations and travelers to California after the Governor ordered a shutdown of 19 counties last week.

• The latest increase in COVID-19 transmissions can be tied to indoor dining according to JP Morgan analysis:

• Researchers are using real time data from Twitter, Google searches, doctors’ searches on a physician platform called UpToDate, mobility data and Kinsa Smart Thermometer in conjunction with a sophisticated prediction model developed at Northeastern University to predict outbreaks of COVID-19. For example, in many of the early states, COVID-19-related Twitter posts and Google Searches for “fever” were among the earliest proxies to activate.

This model predicts that Nebraska and New Hampshire might be the nest hotspot if preventative measures are not put into place immediately. More details on this research (not peer-reviewed yet) can be read here.

How well are we physical distancing? Arrivalist’s Daily Travel Index measures consumer road trips of 50 miles or more in all 50 U.S. states. The data is drawn from a panel of GPS signals representing road trips taken by car.

In Oregon, trips of 50 miles or more were down 0.1% last week compared to prior week.

July daily traffic compared to average daily traffic for month of February was down by 5.3%.

Google Mobility Trends (June 27) Google reports changes in mobility to help understand responses to social distancing guidance related to COVID-19 in Oregon.

*The baseline is the median value, for the corresponding day of the week, during the 5- week period Jan 3–Feb 6, 2020.

National Trends Destination Analysts (Week of July 6) Key Findings to Know:

• 63.0% of American travelers feel the pandemic is going to get worse in the US in the next month—up dramatically from 34.7% at the beginning of June.

• The percent of Americans saying there are certain destinations they would normally consider visiting but now will absolutely not jumped to 37.3% from 29.6% in just one week.

• When asked what’s driving the avoidance of these destinations, rising coronavirus cases and the perceived unsatisfactory management of the situation, as well as the expected poor behavior of other tourists was most cited.

• Nevertheless, there are many Americans who are still traveling or planning to: 16.5% took a trip for the Fourth of July holiday, more than double Memorial Day.

• The profile of these holiday travelers—younger, male, urban, affluent—may offer clues to travel’s near-term.

• Americans who already have a destination(s) in mind for their 2020 leisure travel plans continue to show an affinity for beaches.

• The hotel operational practices that would make Americans feel most confident that their health is being looked after is employees wearing masks and gloves, well-explained cleaning procedures, enforced social distancing and being provided with sanitizer and masks.

Tourism Economics Weekly Analysis findings (July 1st)

• National weekly travel spending grew by 7% to $11.3 billion last week. This expansion has seen travel spending increase over fourfold from its bottom—the week ending April 25th—but it remains depressed at about half of last year’s level.

• In the week ending June 27, the travel economy witnessed its ninth-consecutive week of expansion since the start of the pandemic but still registered 52% below last year’s levels (a $12.4 billion loss)

• Since the beginning of March, the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in over $262 billion in cumulative losses for the U.S. travel economy

• More than half of the country is now posting weekly losses of less than 50%, as 31 states have now reached that milestone, but the District of Columbia and Hawaii continued to suffer declines exceeding 70%

• The continual depressed level of travel spending has caused a loss of $33.6 billion in federal, state, and local tax revenue since March 1

Research and Analytics Resources https://ttra.com/resources/covid-19-travel-and-tourism-research-resources/

https://str.com/event/covid-19-webinar-us-canada-hotel-weekly-performance-analysis

https://www.mmgyglobal.com/covid-19/

https://www.ustravel.org/toolkit/covid-19-travel-industry-research

https://keydatadashboard.com/covid-19-impact-report-on-short-term-vacation-rentals-in-oregon/

https://covid19.ubermedia.com/

If you have any questions, please direct them to: ladan@traveloregon.com