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IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON THE U.S.
FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN
A report by the
Biosystems Analysis
Lab (BSAL); Food,
Agricultural, and
Biological
Engineering (FABE)
department; The Ohio
State University
04-24-2020
Contact: Dr. Ajay Shah,
Associate Professor
Email:
https://bsal.osu.edu/
Disclosure: Opinions
expressed in this
document are solely of
the authors, and are not
peer-reviewed
A
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. Overview of the food supply chain .......................................................................................... 1
1.1 Impact of COVID-19 on the food supply chain.................................................................... 1
1.1.1 Short-term impacts of COVID-19 on the food supply chain .......................................... 1
1.1.2 Long-term impacts of COVID-19 on the food supply chain .......................................... 2
2. Pressure points in the food supply chain ................................................................................ 2
2.1 Processing, manufacturing, and wholesale logistics distribution ......................................... 2
2.1.1 Mitigation strategies ...................................................................................................... 2
2.2 Agricultural production and SMEs ....................................................................................... 3
2.2.1 Crop produce ................................................................................................................. 3
2.2.2 Meat and dairy ............................................................................................................... 3
2.2.3 Mitigation strategies ...................................................................................................... 4
2.3 Imports .................................................................................................................................. 4
2.3.1 Mitigation strategies ...................................................................................................... 4
2.4 Consumer behavior and variability in trends of agricultural commodities........................... 4
2.4.1 Mitigation strategies ...................................................................................................... 5
3. COVID-19 future scenarios ..................................................................................................... 5
3.1 Final thoughts........................................................................................................................ 7
4. References .................................................................................................................................. 7
1
1. Overview of the food supply chain
The recent outbreak of the COVID-19 global pandemic has affected the food supply chain in the
United States in an unprecedented manner. Disruptions caused by the pandemic in the food supply
chain have put food supply under immense stress. Figure 1 illustrates an overview of the modern
food supply chain in the US. The broadly outlined modern food supply chain in Figure 1 depicts
the interactions between its different components which are subject to stress from the recent
COVID-19 pandemic [1, 2]. As illustrated in Figure 1, the US food supply system involves a
network of farmers, producers, packers, distribution centers, truckers, food services, and
consumers, seamlessly moving produce across the nation in a complex network of highways,
railways, and warehouses. Almost the entire food supply chain is disrupted by the recent COVID-
19 pandemic with some components under more stress than the others. This report focuses on the
short- and long-term impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the food supply chain, the pressure
points involved, and related mitigation strategies.
Figure 1: A conceptual framework of the food supply system in the US [1] under stress from the
COVID-19 pandemic (red and orange colored boxes are the components of the food supply
system with red colored boxes, red text and dashed lines indicating the maximum stress in the
system; blue colored boxes describe the functions of respective components; grey colored boxes
include examples of components; yellow colored boxes are inputs and outputs to the system)
1.1 Impact of COVID-19 on the food supply chain
1.1.1 Short-term impacts of COVID-19 on the food supply chain
➢ Food processing, manufacturing and wholesale logistics distribution is expected to be deeply
impacted in their functioning due to loss of labor. This will lead to a disruption in the supply
chain to the food services which would cause a temporary shortage of food.
➢ Import and export of international food is expected to be largely affected as the borders are
shut down across many nations.
2
➢ Changes in consumer behavior such as “panic buying” and variability in demand trends of
agricultural commodities such as reduced demand on perishable commodities like fruits,
vegetables, and fresh foods are expected, along with an increase in demand for canned goods.
➢ Small to mid-size enterprises (SMEs) are expected to be deeply affected due to their strong
dependence on labor while larger retail food stores and food/beverage services may
experience smaller effects as they are able to enforce social distancing measures when
dealing with the consumers.
➢ Specialty crops, fruits and organic produce grown by small scale farmers sold directly to
SMEs and restaurants are expected to take a hit. Direct sales of produce to consumers through
farmers markets would almost completely stop due to the lockdown, consumer behavior and
associated food pattern changes.
1.1.2 Long-term impacts of COVID-19 on the food supply chain
➢ Agricultural production is expected to be impacted mainly due to the loss of seasonal
farmworkers caused by border shutdowns. As a result, the supply of agricultural commodities
for the following year is expected to decrease while demand is expected to remain constant.
➢ The shortage of food may cause a surge in prices of the end user agricultural commodity due
to strain in one or several points in the supply chain cycle coupled with the expected drop in
the economy [3].
2. Pressure points in the food supply chain
2.1 Processing, manufacturing, and wholesale logistics distribution
➢ The food supply system in the US involves a separation of thousands of miles between the
consumer and the farm. Produce can travel up to 2,000 miles before it reaches its terminal
market. Most of the produce transported between cities is done by trucks [10-12].
➢ Empty shelves at the retail food stores are caused by supplies being delayed by a limited
number of trucks and an immediate surge in demand, and not because there is a dearth of
food. The shift in demand for food in small packages rather than wholesale packing for
restaurants and schools is also causing delays in the supply chain.
➢ New restrictions have made truckers’ jobs very difficult. Many shelters and rest areas are
closed, and 24-hour truck stops are limiting their hours of operation. Fast food restaurants
have moved to drive-through only which trucks cannot access. Moreover, a lot of
establishments have closed their public restrooms. DMVs have shut down in 27 states,
leaving recently certified drivers unable to obtain their commercial driving license [8].
Currently, self-driving trucks are not ready to make solo cross-country trips [9].
➢ A previously seamless US freight network is disrupted with drop-off and pick-up points
for trucks carrying food and other supplies now being several hours away from each other.
➢ Processing facilities across the country are suspending production due to the reduced
number of workers.
➢ Decrease in demand for fuel has driven down the demand for ethanol produced from
corn. Nationwide, 44 ethanol plants have idled, and corn prices are down [13].
2.1.1 Mitigation strategies
➢ Support should be extended to the truck drivers during the crisis by offering resources,
deals, and discounts as already initiated by some of the retailers [32]. Processors and
3
retailers should make it easier for truckers to visit their establishments by reconfiguring
their process/material flow layout.
➢ Processing facilities must take measures for employee safety such as installation of
plexiglass shields, in areas of processing plants where social distancing is not possible, to
promote a safe working environment [14].
➢ Some of the options for suppliers include redirecting their produce/meat products to local
canneries, processing facilities for frozen pre-packaged meals, food pantries, and animal
feed/pet food in order to keep the product flow ongoing. Suppliers with no outlets for their
food could consider donating to or partnering with food banks, zoos, and aquariums.
2.2 Agricultural production and SMEs
2.2.1 Crop produce
➢ Field production of certain crops such as potatoes, grains and soybean are almost
completely semi-automated or automated due to immense technological advances through
the decades. Large planting and harvesting operations can be done with minimal human
interaction. However, production of higher value crops and specialty produce, requires
farmworkers to be in close contact with each other, making them more vulnerable to the
virus and thus affecting the yield of fruits and vegetables harvested by hand.
➢ The U.S. food system depends on over 2 million farmworkers to pick fresh fruits and
vegetables [18]. Lack of comprehensive health coverage and associated benefits such as
paid sick leave diminishes the farmworkers’ willingness to work during the crisis [19].
➢ Temporary suspension of H-2A visas for Mexico, which includes 20% of the total farm
workers, in addition to the international travel restrictions, has resulted in labor shortage
for agricultural production [20]. Nearly 888,000 people are hired to pick fresh produce in
the US, most of which are in central California, Florida, Washington state, and Texas [19,
20]. Disruptions in the H-2A seasonal programs coupled with the challenges to sell the
produce may affect farming patterns. Farms may remain uncultivated making the land
susceptible to disease and pest. Harvesting may slow down resulting in loss of produce,
forcing the growers to bury the produce rather than take measures to put it into the food
supply chain.
➢ Moreover, the falling commodity prices are going to hit farmers and ranchers hard, even
as prices may surge further downstream due to critical bottlenecks in the supply chain [20].
2.2.2 Meat and dairy
➢ Meat production has taken a hit as many meat processing facilities across the country are
slowing or suspending production because the workers are sick or staying home.
➢ According to farmers, dairy business has been hit harder and sooner than other agricultural
commodities. Closure of two major demand sources, schools and restaurants, has forced a
sudden shift from wholesale markets to retail grocery stores [22, 30]. Dairy products are
highly perishable which adds to the logistical challenges for the packaging and distribution
centers [21]. Hence, despite the high demand for milk at the consumer level, farmers are
forced to dump thousands of gallons of milk each day in the trash [21, 23].
4
2.2.3 Mitigation strategies
➢ Policies involving a 14-day quarantine period, which is widely regarding as the incubation
period for the virus, along with the distribution of virus testing kits for the farmworkers
coming through H-2A programs should be implemented to address the labor shortage [34].
➢ Educating farmworkers regarding COVID-19 from a health standpoint (technology gaps
and literary-myths such as the virus contracts through sweat) will promote their willingness
to work during the crisis [18, 20].
➢ Installation of more handwashing stations, providing the farmworkers with adequate
personal protective equipment (PPE), alternating the shifts of workers while minimizing
the number of people in a shift, and observing the workers for the signs of illness are some
measures that can be taken to improve the workforce during the crisis.
➢ Farmers can have “drive-thru” markets to sell their produce and help local food banks with
food assistance. Farmers can also connect with consumers through partnerships with food
apps to sell their produce.
➢ Benefits through policies on reducing transportation costs and assistance with selling their
produce will encourage farmers to sell to distant markets and work with food banks instead
of burying their produce in the field.
➢ Meat production can shift focus on fewer varieties with slaughterhouses and meat
processing facilities taking appropriate measures for employee safety in order to continue
the production and control the price surge [17]. JBS USA, a meat processing company, is
providing masks, gloves, and face shields for employees [14].
2.3 Imports
➢ The US imports almost 20% of its food including 80% of seafood [4]. Approximately 50%
of US’ imported dairy products are from Europe [4].
➢ Approximately 500,000 tons of rice which were supposed to be delivered in the months of
March and April are either stuck at ports or held up in the pipeline due to the lockdown [5].
➢ Import of 17.4 million pounds of blueberries from Mexico since April 2nd has saturated the
market, leaving little to no room for 6.1 million pounds of Florida blueberries [6].
➢ Major parts of the food supply could be in trouble soon, should countries accelerate their
own food protectionism programs. Kazakhstan, a big exporter of wheat flour, Cambodia,
a major exporter of fish, and Vietnam, a major supplier of rice, have suspended their
exports [4]. Manufacturing is also expected to be affected with multiple raw materials
coming from different countries [7, 31].
2.3.1 Mitigation strategies
➢ Partnerships with food companies in vetting incoming products must be given precedence
to allow for promotion of imports.
➢ Steps should be taken to source the raw materials from within the country with policies
reducing their costs in order to make it an affordable solution for the manufacturers.
➢ Most importantly, steps should be taken to keep agricultural trade open.
2.4 Consumer behavior and variability in trends of agricultural commodities
➢ “Panic buying” creates artificial shortages when store employees are unable to stock
shelves to keep up with the demand.
5
➢ There is a drastic decline in the number of people going to restaurants and cafes [30].
Closure of restaurants and less frequent grocery shopping greatly decreases the demand for
fresh produce which in turn affects the producers and suppliers.
➢ Demand is expected to increase throughout the pandemic for canned, packaged, and frozen
foods which can be stored such as canned beans/meat, frozen meals, and ramen [15].
➢ There has been an 85% increase in the demand for powdered milk products, 37% increase
in the demand for dried beans, 32% increase in the demand for canned meat, and over 20%
increase in demand for garbanzo beans, black beans, rice, and tuna after the COVID-19
pandemic thus far [16].
➢ The retail price of high-demand products such as meat and dairy has increased. The average
retail price of milk increased by 11% for the week that ended on March 21[13].
➢ Some interesting and unexpected trends in food patterns have emerged, such as the demand
trend in meat sales continued to increase amidst the COVID-19 disruption from 30% to
over 125% whereas one would expect it to decrease considering the socio-economic
implications of the pandemic [17]. Consequently, meat price has surged at the grocery
stores. Prices for wholesale choice beef increased by 25%, from $2.05 to $2.57 [17].
2.4.1 Mitigation strategies
➢ Control measures such as limiting the sale of commodities at the retail store level by
enforcing purchasing limits for specific items will help mitigate “panic buying”.
➢ Items needing sales limit can be identified by monitoring inventory with real-time
tracking systems. Retailers should pay close attention to unexpected or unusual upticks
in purchasing trends and adjust store policies accordingly.
➢ Promoting reliable and secure methods for customers to submit orders and pre-pay such
as email, apps, online ordering forms, etc. will likely reduce impulse purchases as the
consumers will be subjected to less social pressure and more careful item selection. ➢ Circulating food safety Public Service Announcements (PSAs) through social media
outlets will help consumers identify best ways to manage and store their food supplies. ➢ Measures such as selling near-expiry products at a discounted price will likely reduce
unnecessary wastes and ease demand.
3. COVID-19 future scenarios
➢ Predictions made from surveys indicate that the number of fatalities reported by the end of
April 2020 would most likely be between 10,500 and 81,500 [24]. We are already nearing
50,000 fatalities. Surveys also anticipate around 200,000 deaths in the U.S this year, with
experts suggesting a range that could go over 1 million in the worst-case scenario [24].
➢ A team of McKinsey analysts put together 9 scenarios for the economic impacts of the
COVID-19 pandemic as a function of the duration and extent of the virus spread along with
the corresponding public-health responses, all of them predicting an immediate drop in the
economy with a variable rate of increase in the future [3].
➢ Upstate Medical University has laid out 4 possible scenarios (Figure 2) for the coronavirus
epidemic in Central New York with experts saying that the red curve is a representation of
the current situation which could quickly escalate to the brown or blue curves if measures
to enforce social distancing are not in place. Although New York is not a representative of
the entire country, Figure 2 can help us realize the extent and seriousness of the virus spread
and implement the required measures to flatten the curves elsewhere in the country. The
6
interesting part of the predictions in Figure 2 is that they all assumed the coronavirus cases
to be going into September or further.
Figure 2: COVID-19 spread scenarios in New York [25]
➢ Projections made by Feeding America, one of the biggest network of food banks, has listed
unemployment scenarios as a function of expected unemployment rate and poverty rate,
and the related increase in the number of food insecure individuals from the projections,
which stands at approximately 35 million before the pandemic, is expected to have an
additional 17.1 million in the worst-case scenario, which is almost a 50% increase [26].
➢ Agricultural commodity prices such as soybean, corn, and cotton are declining in the short-
term at an average of 10%, as shown in Figure 3, however, these prices are predicted to
increase at a variable rate from anywhere between 10% and 30% in the future due to the
restricted trade, worker shortage, and decrease in the economy [20, 33].
Figure 3: Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the US commodity futures prices [20]
7
3.1 Final thoughts
➢ Food banks are out of storage which is leading to food wastes. In addition, there is a dearth
of volunteers at food banks due to the enforced social distancing. Mobile storage facilities
will likely help address this problem.
➢ As discussed earlier, the impact of COVID-19 on truck delivery and logistics needs
immediate addressing and a mitigation strategy for that would be to create communication
lines between processors, local farmers, and consumers where consumers can travel to
pick-up points to reduce wastes and eliminate logistic pressures [28].
➢ Retailers can mitigate the artificial shortages by enforcing purchasing limits, increasing the
number of self-checkouts with an additional benefit of freeing up manpower to stock
shelves in time, and ensuring peak app/website functionality for curbside pickup.
➢ Policies may need to call on unemployed people to take to the fields to mitigate the
expected labor shortages, in addition to having the H-2A workers in quarantine for 14 days
instead of suspending the program.
➢ There is a general need to (i) improve food assistance programs, (ii) support SMEs to
market their products through additional supply chain channels such as e-commerce, (iii)
focus on key logistics bottlenecks for a sustainable food chain, (iv) manage policies to keep
the global trade open, and (v) manage the macroeconomic ramifications [27].
➢ Some technological interventions to consider for a future pandemic could be:
o GPS based self-service and completely automated retail stores.
o Use of technology analogous to the blockchain technology to upgrade the modern
food supply chain to a “smart” food supply chain.
o Automation and alternate modes of transport for food delivery/transport systems
including drones.
➢ Excess production is at the core of the US food system. Food waste ranges between 30%
and 40% before the pandemic, with 31% lost at the retail and consumer levels [29]. The
food waste also represents the waste of fuel, fertilizers, herbicides, pesticides, packaging,
and labor that was required to grow, process, and transport the food. The COVID-19
pandemic throws light on the need to reconsider, re-evaluate, and reduce the wastes.
➢ The food supply chain must have mechanisms to handle unexpected disruptions in the
future by having an alternate supply system mode or control measures at each point in the
system through research and technological innovations in addition to the change in the
associated policies to have the capacity to handle the stress caused by the next pandemic.
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8
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