Impact of BS-VI and Strategies for 2Ws Development ECT - 2016...Impact of BS-VI and Strategies for 2Ws Development ECT - 2016 By Mr. Harjeet Singh, (Executive Advisor-Tech) Hero Motocorp

Impact of BS-VI and Strategies for 2Ws Development

ECT - 2016By

Mr. Harjeet Singh, (Executive Advisor-Tech)

Hero Motocorp LtdChairman – SIAM 2W Technical

Group

External- General Title: ECMA – ECT -2016

INDIAN TWO WHEELER MARKET

2


CATEGORIZATION OF PASSENGER VEHICLES

3,413,859, 15%

933,950, 4%

18,829,786, 81%

Four wheelers Three wheeler Two wheelers

2,789,678,14%

538,092,3%

16,455,911, 83%

Four wheelers Three wheeler Two wheelers

Domestic sales (FY 15-16) Production (FY 15-16)

*All Figures in Million

Source: SIAM Statistical Service

3


6.27.1 6.5 6.8

8.4

10.512.0 11.9 12.5 13.0 12.81.0

0.91.1 1.2

1.5

2.1

2.7 3.03.7

4.7 5.3

7.68.4 8.0 8.4

10.5

13.3

15.5 15.716.9

18.5 18.8

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

Motorcycle Scooters Mopeds

*All Figures in Million Source: SIAM Statistical Service

CAGR = 9.5%

4


41%, 7,743

11%, 2,013

7%, 1,398

5%, 9284%, 734

28%, 5,276

4%, 738

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

75 cc < MC ≤ 110 cc

110 cc < MC ≤ 125 cc

125 cc < MC ≤ 150 cc

150 cc < MC ≤ 200 cc

MC >200 cc Scooters Mopeds

Tho

usa

nd

s

Scooters Mopeds#MotorcyclesP

rod

uct

ion

Vo

lum

es

Vehicle categorisation *All Figures in Thousands # <75 cc , fixed transmission, big wheel size >12”

More than 80% of the Indian 2W segment constitutes of vehicles less than 125 cc.

5


5.8 6.5 5.8 5.87.3

9.010.1 10.1 10.5 10.7 10.7

0.90.9

1.1 1.1

1.5

2.1

2.6 2.93.6

4.5 5.0

0.40.5

0.4

0.6

0.7

0.80.8

0.7

0.70.7

7.17.9

7.3 7.4

9.4

11.8

13.4 13.814.8

16.016.5

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

Motorcycle Scooters Mopeds

*All Figures in Million Source: SIAM Statistical Service

CAGR = 8.84%

6


42%, 6787

13%, 1976

7%, 1132

1%, 237 2%, 347

31%, 5032

4%, 723

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

75 cc < MC ≤ 110 cc

110 cc < MC ≤ 125 cc

125 cc < MC ≤ 150 cc

150 cc < MC ≤ 200 cc

Motorcycle >200cc

Scooters Mopeds

Tho

usa

nd

s

More than 86% of the Indian 2W segment constitutes of vehicles less than 125 cc.

Sale

s V

olu

me

s

Vehicle categorisation *All Figures in Thousands

Scooters Mopeds#Motorcycles

# <75 cc , fixed transmission, big wheel size >12”

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Source: SIAM Statistical Service

20582559

29233603

45015032

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

F-11 F-12 F-13 F-14 F-15 F-16

Scooter Sales'000s

9014

10073 10085

1048110726 10700

8000

8500

9000

9500

10000

10500

11000

F-11 F-12 F-13 F-14 F-15 F-16

Motorcycle Sales'000s

697

777789

723

749

724

640

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

800

F-11 F-12 F-13 F-14 F-15 F-16

Moped Sales'000s

CAGR 20%CAGR 3%

CAGR 1%

0 %

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External - General Title: ECMA - ECT 2016

SUMMARY

• Two wheeler industry - 81 % of the total passenger vehicle.

• Two wheelers growth over the last decade is CAGR of 9.5 %

• Two Wheeler growth expected to continue primarily because of …..

– Low Penetration

– Poor Public Transport

– Growing Economy & Infrastructure

• Two wheeler in India are majorly used for daily commuting hence low powered and lower performance and high on Fuel Efficiency.

• Indian Two Wheelers are being exported to many countries

• All major global players are either having manufacturing facility in India or present in Indian market.

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Emission Regulations in India- BS-VI Scenario

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Background for BS-VI

• Today 2W industry is busy in implementing BS-IV all models w e f 1st Apr 2017

• Inline with all other Vehicle Segment , MoRTH has decided to leap frog from BS-IV to BS-VI

• BS-VI has been aligned with EU5 with some changes

• EU5 of 2Ws Pollutants have been aligned with EU6 of 4Ws (except PN)

• BS-VI Final notification has been released GSR-889(E) dt 16th Sep 2016

• Basic difference between EU5 n BS-VI are…..

SN Parameter EU5 (168/2013) # BS-VI (GSR 889(E))

1 Pollutants - Aligned with EU5 of 2W

2 OBD1 -Already in EU4 1st Apr 2020

3 OBD2 1st Jan 2020 1st Apr 2023

4 Date1st Jan2020(New)

1st Apr 2020 (All)1st Jan 2021(All)

# EU5-Still not final , European Commission has launched a feasibility Study and would be finalized by Early 2017

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2.0

1.5

1.0

1.9

1.4

0.8

2

1.5

11.08

0.79

0.390 0.046

0.08

0.052

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

BS-I (IDC)2000

BS-II (IDC)2005

BS-III (IDC)2010

BS-III (WMTC as an Alt)2012

BS-IV (WMTC)2016/2017

BS-VI

India Emission Norm Progression

CO HC+NOX Nox HC NMHC

IDC WMTC

• Indian 2W emission norms have been progressively tightened every 5 yrs.• Indian Emission norms are made to keep the high level of fuel efficiency till BS-IV

hence…• Till BS-IV, limits for combined HC + NOx was specified, for retaining superior FE.• Indian 2 W are used mainly for commuting purposes and hence Fuel Economy is

an important factor.

IDC/WMTC

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BS-VI (Package) Emission Norm GSR 889(E) dt 16th Sep 2016(Gasoline)

CO (mg/km)

HC (mg/km)

NMHC (mg/km)

NOx(mg/km)

PM*(mg/km)

Durability (km)

Evapo(mg/test)

Class1&2 1000 100 68 60 4.5 20,000 1500

Class 3 1000 100 68 60 4.5 35,000 1500

DF 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1 --- 300**

Vehicle should equipped with OBD .*PM is applicable to gasoline DI engines.** Additive DF

• Proposed date of implementation is 1st April 2020 for all models.

• OBD implemented in two stages.• OBD-I, 1st April 2020• OBD-II, 1st April 2023 with threshold limits

• IUPR(In use performance ratio) introduced with OBD-II in 2023

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BS-VI (Package) OBD requirements for BS-VIMonitoring Items OBD Stage I (BS VI)

1st April, 2020

OBD Stage II (BS VI)

1stApril, 2023

Circuit continuity for all emission related power

train component (if equipped)

√ √

Distance travelled since MIL(Malfunction

indicator lamp) ON

√ √

Electrical disconnection of Electronic

evaporative purge control device (if equipped

and if active)

√ √

Catalytic converter monitoring X √

EGR system monitoring √ √

Misfire detection X √

Oxygen sensor deterioration X √

OBD-II Threshold Limit CO (mg/km) NMHC (mg/km) NOx (mg/km) PM* (mg/km)

Class 1, 2 and 3

1900 250 300 50

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Challenges for BS-VI

1.403

1

0.79

0.39

0.06 0.1 0.068

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

BS-IV (WMTC)2016/2017

BS-VI (WMTC)Proposed in 2020

~85% reduction in Nox from BS-IV to BS-VI

CO HC+NOX Nox HC NMHC

85%

3 yrs from BS-IV Due to 85% reduction in NOx, there will be significant loss in fuel efficiency Development of OBD system Implementing one year ahead than Europe

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Challenges for BS-VI1. India is skipping BS-V and leapfrog to BS-VI

2. India is continuously upgrading emission norms after every 5 years while Europe has taken EU3->EU4 , 10 years and EU4->EU5 , 4yrs

3. EU5 has Phasing of New and All models by one year , BS-VI all models in 2020

4. BS-VI aligned with EU5 , which is still not final and based Euro Commission, it will be finalized beginning 2017

5. India is predominantly at Carbureted Engine with 2ways Cat ,where as EU has migrated to FI , hence India’s challenge is much bigger.

6. OBD first time on 2Ws

7. Indian 2Ws Engines are lean burn hence most Fuel Efficient in the world , but with BS-VI will have major impact on FE as as NOx is very low , hence Engines have to be calibrated to Stoichiometric ratio.

8. Additional Control on NMHC.

9. BS-VI Gasoline Octane Number continues to be 91 (EU-6 Fuel 95 Octance), hence low handing solution to recover Fuel Economy is not available.

10. Large Volume of 2Ws and all supply chain updation, needs dev time as readymade solution not available even in EU

11. Last Fuel availability is ??

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Thank you

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Documents

Impact of BS-VI and Strategies for 2Ws Development ECT - 2016...Impact of BS-VI and Strategies for 2Ws Development ECT - 2016 By Mr. Harjeet Singh, (Executive Advisor-Tech) Hero Motocorp