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Immigration in the 2000s
POL 168: Latin@ Politics
Brad JonesDept. of Political ScienceUC-Davishttp://psfaculty.ucdavis.edu/bsjjones
Historical Evolution of Border Crossing Border crossing historically an issue
And sometimes even a non-issue! Modern Era
San Diego-Tijuana SectorOperation GatekeeperOperation Hold-the-LineNAFTA
Border: 1990s
Political Backlash Against Immigrants: Almost all are Latino High Profile Ballot Propositions Pass in California and Arizona in Mid 1990s, Early 2000s
Proposition 187: Assistance for Immigrants (California) Immigration levels prompt Prop 187 in Ca.
Prop 187 ads from 1996 (grainy video) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0f1PE8Kzng Proposition 209: Affirmative Action (California) Proposition 227: English-Only, Bilingual Education (California) Proposition 203: English-Only, Bilingual Education (Arizona)
U.S. Border Patrol Changes Strategy in Mid-1990s 1994’s “Operation Gatekeeper” is Initiated by INS/Border Patrol Entry Shifts from Ports-of-Entry (i.e. San Diego) to the Desert Border Patrol adopts “OTM” category Illegal immigration dominated by Latino Migration “Catch and Release” Policy Creates Incentive for OTM Migration
Border Patrol Agentshttp://trac.syr.edu/immigration/reports/143/include/rep143table3.html
Deaths on the Border: Pima County Arizona
Along the border, paramilitary operations flourish.
1977: Klan Border Watch
Early 1980s: Aryan Nations
Late 1980s-Mid 1990s: DavidDuke/KKK
1992: Voices of Citizens Together
1996: U.S. Citizens Patrol
1999: American Border Patrol
2000: Ranch Rescue
2003: Civil Homeland Defense
2004: The Minutemen
Anti-Immigration Group Websites
Gilchrest’s Minutemen Projecthttp://www.minutemanproject.com/
Minutemen Civil Defense Corpshttp://www.minutemanhq.com/hq/
American Border Patrolhttp://www.americanborderpatrol.com/
Anti-Immigration Rhetoric
Mainstream Press (Lou Dobbs, CNN) Fringe Groups (Chris Simcox, Glenn
Spencer) Politicians (Tom Tancredo R-CO) Many others… And then immigration is propelled onto
national scene.
Sept. 11, 2001
Late 1990s, early 2000s, immigration and the border remain largely a regional issue
This all changes in one day: 9/11/01.
Focus turns immediately to the border
National security directly linked to immigration/border Issue
The Link is Made Between the Border and Terror, Between Migrants and Terrorists
Department of Homeland Security Created in 2003
U.S. Customs and Border Protection Mission Statement:
“The U.S. Customs and Border Protection priority mission – keeping terrorists and terrorist weapons from entering the United States – places CBP on the frontline of the war on terrorism. As the nation’s unified border agency, CBP is strategicallypositioned at and between our ports of entry to prevent further terrorist attacks on our nation.” (source: http://www.cbp.gov/xp/cgov/border_security/)
9/11 Commission Report Reinforces Terror Connection
Immigration and Nat. Security Activists Tie Border Legislation to Terror:
“It is the purpose of 9/11 Families for a Secure America to make Americans and their elected representatives aware of the obvious truth stated by the 9/11 Commission and the equally obvious fact that the problems of open borders, illegal immigration and terrorism are inextricably linked.” (9/11 Families for a Secure America [http://www.911fsa.org/])
All The While, Exposure to the Immigration/Border Increases
Newspaper Coverage
Newspaper Coverage
http://psfaculty.ucdavis.edu/bsjjones/newspapertab.pdf
Federal Legislation
Border Patrol Recruitment Video View and consider major themes and
images: http://nemo.cbp.gov/obp/BPcommercial_Hi
gh.mpg
“OTM” Threat Linked To Al-Qaida
“Recent information from ongoinginvestigations, detentions and emerging threat streams strongly suggests that al-Qaeda has considered using the southwestern border to infiltrate the United States." –Adm. James Loy, Deputy H.S. Secretary
"The indication that al Qaeda operatives are trying to penetrate our border through Mexico clearly demonstrates that nationalsecurity is unavoidably linked to border security.”—Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-CA)
“We are concerned, Homeland Security is concerned about special interest aliens entering the United States.” --FBI Director Robert Mueller
Arizona is “terrorist alley.”—Col. Ben Anderson, U.S.Army (Ret.)
"There are Middle Easterners coming across the border as we speak.“—Former Border Patrol Agent David Stoddard
Special Interest OTM Apprehensions
729 721 736
676
766
849807
626
510
2.88 2.19 1.65 1.71 1.82 2.28 1.63 0.83 0.430
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2005 2005
YearSource: Congressional Research Service
Num
ber
App
rehe
nded
And Yet The Face of Immigration Remains the Same Despite National Security
Threat, Immigration has remained a Latino Issue
Latino Immigration is Peaking as
9/11 Hits
The Focus on the Border resulted
In greater exposure to Latino issues and images.
Almost all of the content conveys
negative images of Latinos
All of this Playing Out on
National Stage
Backlash?
Immigration becomes among the dominant items on the political agenda 2005-2008
Rhetoric primarily “restrictionist” in tone. Legislative proposals at all levels of government
become widespread. Bias incidents on the rise in the 2000s
Though they had similar peaks in the mid-1990s
FBI Hate Crime Data
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
40
05
00
60
07
00
80
0
Anti-Hispanic Hate Crime
Year
Fre
qu
en
cy
FBI Data and Bias Incidents
Peak similar to 1996 but what are the major differences?
What about perceptions of discrimination among Latinos?
Pew Data, 2004-2002 How much of a problem is discrimination?
None, Some, Very Much Bias incidents to you, family, or friends in the
past 5 years?
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
30
40
50
60
70
Indicators of Discrimination
Year
Pe
rce
nta
ge
Discrimination is 'Major Problem'
Those reporting a bias incident
1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
010
20
30
40
50
Reasons for Discrimination: Pew 2007
Reason
Fre
quency
Income Level
Skin Color
Language
Immigration
1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
010
20
30
40
Worried about Deportation Pew 2007
Level of Worry
Fre
quency
Not at All
Not Much
Some
A Lot
1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
020
40
60
Congressional Inaction and Perceived Danger: Pew 2007
Level of Danger
Fre
quency
Less Dangerous
No Difference
More Dangerous
Bias and Discrimination
Trend is upward Perceptions of and experience of bias incidents have significantly
increased over time. Consider and understand what the 2007 data underscores Jones’ thesis: Many Americans view Latinos through “Huntington’s
Lens” Perception of Latinos as a cultural threat has largely been driven by
the immigration issue. Legislative Responsiveness has also been largely restrictionist. ICE Raids and deportations underscores the politics of the 2000s Some data
Congressional Legislation
Ideology and Sponsorship/Co-sponsorship of Congressional Legislation
“The likelihood of supporting restrictionist legislation as a function of ideology and border status.”
Strong connection to ideology and the border. However, by late 2000s, distribution of
sponsorship was more diffuse.
-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
0.1
50
.20
0.2
50
.30
Activity on Immigration by Ideology and Border State Status
MC Ideology
Pro
ba
bili
ty
Border State Districts
Non-Border State Districts
Ideology and Border Status: 1993-1996
-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Activity on Immigration by Ideology and Border State Status
MC Ideology
Pro
ba
bili
ty
Border State Districts
Non-Border State Districts
Ideology and Border Status: 2001-2004
-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
Activity on Immigration by Ideology and Border State Status
MC Ideology
Pro
ba
bili
ty
Border State Districts
Non-Border State Districts
Ideology and Border Status: 2005-2008
-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
Activity on Immigration by Ideology and Border State Status
MC Ideology
Pro
babi
lity
Border State Districts
Non-Border State Districts
Congressional Action
Previous Slides are preliminary General Trends? What about the current period? From the perspective of Latinos, what might be
going on? Given strongest restrictionist rhetoric has been
on the right, might we observe implications for parties?
Partisan Implications Redux
Are there predictable patterns in partisan attitudes among Latinos?
Party Identification and Best Party Question
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
02
04
06
0
Party Affiliation
Year
Pe
rce
nta
ge
Republican
Democratic
No Difference
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
020
4060
Best Party for Latino Interests: All Respondents
Year
Per
cent
age
Republican
Democratic
No Difference
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
020
4060
Best Party for Latino Interests: Republican Identifiers
Year
Per
cent
age
Democratic
RepublicanNo Difference
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
020
4060
Best Party for Latino Interests: Democratic Identifiers
Year
Per
cent
age
Republican
Democratic
No Difference
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
020
4060
Best Party for Latino Interests: Independents
Year
Per
cent
age
Republican
Democratic
No Difference
Long Term Implications?
Not clear at this point but one can speculate. Issue seems to have gone dormant… But it will return. Report on CNN (after 2008 Election)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sP1FKSNBiSA O’Reilly (Nov. 2008)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qBBG68Sa8Nc&feature=related
O’Reilly (2007)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FhwwbNA3hjg