ILEMBE DISTRICT MUNICIPALITY NOVEMBER 2010 · NOVEMBER 2010 NOVEMBER 2010 INTELLIGENCE REPORT Enterprise iLembe Cnr Link Road and Ballito Drive Ballito, KwaZulu-Natal Tel: 032 –

NOVEMBER 2010

NOVEMBER 2010

Enterprise iLembe

Cnr Link Road and Ballito Drive

Ballito, KwaZulu-Natal

Tel: 032 – 946 1256

Fax: 032 – 946 3515

ILEMBE DISTRICT MUNICIPALITY

QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS AND

INTELLIGENCE REPORT

SECOND QUARTER

APRIL - JUNE 2011

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iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2nd Quarter 2011

Table of Contents SECTION 1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................... 7

1.1 Overview of the iLembe District Economy ............................................................................... 7

1.2 Background and Objective of the Study .................................................................................. 7

1.3 Methodology ....................................................................................................................... 8

1.4 Key Economic Indicators ...................................................................................................... 8

1.4 What to expect in the 3rd Quarterly report .............................................................................. 9

SECTION 2 ECONOMIC INDICATORS AND ANALYSIS ....................................................................... 10

2.1 Demographic Profile .......................................................................................................... 10

2.2 Socio-Economic Indicators .................................................................................................. 13

2.3 Employment, Education and Skills ....................................................................................... 17

2.4 SAARF Living Standard Measure .......................................................................................... 23

2.4 Economic Activity .............................................................................................................. 26

2.5 International Trade ............................................................................................................ 41

2.6 Tourism ........................................................................................................................... 46

2.7 Business Confidence .......................................................................................................... 46

2.8 Enterprise iLembe Business Expansion & Retention Survey ..................................................... 50

SECTION 3 CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................. 54

3.1 Key Findings ..................................................................................................................... 54

ANNEXURE ASSUMPTIONS AND COMPREHENSIVE ECONOMIC INDICATORS ....................................... 56

A1.1 Population and Households ................................................................................................. 56

A1.2 Racial Profile ..................................................................................................................... 56

A1.3 HIV and AIDS ................................................................................................................... 57

A1.4 Gender Profile ................................................................................................................... 57

A1.5 Age Profile ........................................................................................................................ 58

A1.6 Energy used for Lighting .................................................................................................... 59

A1.7 Type of Toilet .................................................................................................................... 59

A1.8 Water .............................................................................................................................. 60

A1.9 Type of Dwelling ............................................................................................................... 60

A1.10 Education Level ............................................................................................................. 61

A1.11 Employment and Unemployment ..................................................................................... 63

A1.12 Employment by type and skill level .................................................................................. 63

A1.13 Employment by Industry ................................................................................................. 64

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A1.14 Gross Geographic Product by Industry .............................................................................. 65

A1.15 Income and Expenditure ................................................................................................. 66

A1.16 Expenditure by Category ................................................................................................. 66

A1.17 Expenditure by sub-category ........................................................................................... 67

A1.18 Domestic Fixed Capital Investment by Investment Type ..................................................... 68

A1.19 Domestic Fixed Capital Investment by Industry ................................................................. 69

A1.20 Airport Passenger Movements.......................................................................................... 70

A1.21 Port Movements ............................................................................................................ 70

LIST OF GRAPHS

Graph 1 Racial Profile for Quarter 2 (2011) ........................................................................................ 11

Graph 2 Gender profile for Quarter 2 (2011) ...................................................................................... 12

Graph 3 Age Distribution for Quarter 2 (2011) .................................................................................... 12

Graph 4 HIV Positive and AIDS deaths in Quarter 2 (2011) .................................................................. 13

Figure 5 Energy used for Lighting for Quarter 2 (2011) ........................................................................ 14

Graph 6 Type of Toilet for Quarter 2 (2011) ....................................................................................... 15

Graph 7 Source of Water in Quarter 2 (2011) ..................................................................................... 15

Graph 8 Type of Dwelling in Quarter 2 (2011) .................................................................................... 16

Graph 9 Employment Status in Quarter 2 (2011) ................................................................................ 17

Graph 10 Employment Rate - Strict and Expanded in Quarter 2 (2011) ................................................. 18

Graph 11 Formal and Informal Employment in Quarter 2 (2011) ........................................................... 19

Graph 12 Employment contribution by Sector for Quarter 2 (2011) ....................................................... 20

Graph 13 Formal Employment by Skill Level in Quarter 2 (2011) ......................................................... 21

Graph 14 Level of Education Received in Quarter 2 (2011) ................................................................... 22

Graph 15 GGP for Quarter 2 (2011) ................................................................................................. 26

Graph 16 Distribution of Expenditure in Quarter 2 (2011) .................................................................... 28

Graph 17 Breakdown of Total Expenditure into Sub-Categories in Quarter 2 (2011) ............................... 29

Graph 18 Domestic Fixed Capital Investment by Type in Quarter 2 (2011) ............................................. 30

Graph 19 Domestic Fixed Capital Investment per Industry in Quarter 2 (2011)....................................... 31

Graph 20 Shift-Share Analysis for iLembe .......................................................................................... 33

Graph 21 Shift-Share analysis for iLembe by industry 2009/2010 ......................................................... 34

Graph 22 Total Airport Passenger Movements ..................................................................................... 37

Graph 23 Port movements for Durban and Richards Bay ...................................................................... 37

Graph 24 FNB House Price Index – Real and Nominal growth as of June 2011 ........................................ 39

Graph 25 FNB Average House Price Index .......................................................................................... 39

Graph 26 FNB valuers residential market strength index ...................................................................... 40

Graph 27 Activity level by income for Quarter 2 2011 .......................................................................... 40

Graph 28 Destinations visited in KZN 2009 (percentage contribution) .................................................... 46

Graph 29 BER/RMB Business Confidence Index Quarter 2 .................................................................... 47

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Graph 30 Advantages and disadvantages to locating business in Ballito ................................................. 51

Graph 31 Sales over two years ......................................................................................................... 52

Graph 32 Main constraints to expansion............................................................................................. 53

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1: Summary of Key Economic Indicators ..................................................................................... 5

Table 2: Population and Households in Quarter 2 (2011) ..................................................................... 10

Table 3: Household number for main places ....................................................................................... 11

Table 4 Description of SAARF Living Standard Measures ...................................................................... 23

Table 5 Percentage contribution to each LSM group by province ........................................................... 25

Table 6: Total Household Income and Expenditure for Quarter 2 2011 (Rm)........................................... 28

Table 7 Percentage contribution to GDP 2010 ..................................................................................... 31

Table 8 Employment Location Quotient for iLembe .............................................................................. 32

Table 9 Shift Share analysis for iLembe by industry 2009/2010 ............................................................ 34

Table 10 Quarterly trends in vehicle sales South Africa ........................................................................ 35

Table 11 Total number of vehicle registrations per licensing district ....................................................... 36

Table 12 Port movements for Quarter 1 and Quarter 2 ........................................................................ 38

Table 13 Total Exports per District Municipality ................................................................................... 42

Table 14 Percentage Growth and Contribution of each HS Coded Export Item in iLembe .......................... 42

Table 15 Total imports per District Municipality ................................................................................... 43

Table 16 Growth and Contribution of each HS Coded Import Item in iLembe .......................................... 44

Table 17 Gross Geographic Expenditure ............................................................................................. 45

Table 18 Overview of KZN tourism market 2009 ................................................................................. 46

Table 19 SACCI BCI Quarter 2 (2011) ............................................................................................... 47

Table 20 Percentage change of economic activity per sector in KZN over the last year, month and quarter 48

Table 21 Implications of a change in the economic risk/conditions variables ........................................... 49

Table 22 Economic Risk Monitor ........................................................................................................ 50

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SUMMARY OF KEY INDICATORS

This section provides an overview of the key economic indicators that are presented in Section 2. The table

below contains a summary of the key indicators for iLembe within the context of the KwaZulu-Natal

province, and highlights the provincial and district indicators for 2010, and the second quarter change for

the district. The indicators in this quarter report are derived from existing trends and desktop information

sources.

Table 1: Summary of Key Economic Indicators

Key Indicator

KwaZulu-Natal

iLembe

2010 2010

Quarter 2 -

2011

Population 10,645,509 562,815 563,073

Households 2,494,981 134,275 134,723

Race (%)

African 85.25% 90.48% 90.48%

Coloured 1.37% 0.46% 0.46%

Asian 8.64% 6.91% 6.91%

White 4.73% 2.15% 2.15%

Gender (%) Male 48.22% 48.35% 48.40%

Female 51.78% 51.65% 51.60%

Age (%)

0 - 14 years 33.09% 33.19% 32.87%

15 - 29 years 31.13% 31.67% 31.77%

30 - 49 years 22.47% 21.49% 21.63%

50 - 65 years 8.87% 9.11% 9.14%

over 65 years 4.44% 4.53% 4.58%

HIV/Aids (%) HIV Positive 16.10% 16.82% 16.58%

Aids Deaths 1.21% 1.27% 1.22%

Education (% of total population)

No Schooling 14.14% 14.09% 13.96%

Grade 12 10.94% 9.12% 9.13%

Tertiary 3.72% 2.78% 2.82%

Employment (number)

Employed (Formal and informal ) 2201538 99784 98912

Unemployed 630047 28783 27898

Not economically active 3863612 222025 227135

Unemployment Rate (Strict) 24.67% 22.39% 22.00%

Unemployment Rate (Expanded) 67.57% 71.54% 72.05%

Type of Employment (%)

Formal 81.29% 78.32% 78.14%

Informal 18.71% 21.68% 21.86%

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Key Indicator

KwaZulu-Natal

iLembe

2010 2010

Quarter 2 -

2011

Skill (%)

Highly Skilled 12.79% 11.32% 11.45%

Skilled 43.10% 40.50% 40.74%

Semi and Unskilled 44.12% 48.18% 47.81%

Employment by Industry (%)

Agriculture, forestry and fishing 4.89% 9.52% 8.94%

Mining and quarrying 0.61% 0.52% 0.53%

Manufacturing 13.47% 16.79% 16.48%

Electricity, gas and water 0.29% 0.11% 0.11%

Construction 6.43% 6.44% 6.43%

Wholesale and retail trade, catering and accommodation 22.05% 21.98% 22.27%

Transport, storage and communication 5.69% 3.26% 3.26%

Finance, insurance, real estate and business services 14.95% 13.58% 13.84%

Community, social and personal services 16.87% 17.19% 17.34%

General government 14.74% 10.61% 10.79%

Gross Value Added by Industry (%)

Agriculture, forestry and fishing 4.41% 9.84% 9.42%

Mining and quarrying 1.27% 0.83% 0.79%

Manufacturing 22.14% 29.17% 28.46%

Electricity, gas and water 2.21% 0.93% 0.90%

Construction 3.04% 2.83% 2.90%

Wholesale and retail trade, catering and accommodation 14.17% 14.83% 15.06%

Transport, storage and communication 13.63% 7.21% 7.16%

Finance, insurance, real estate and business services 20.00% 19.85% 20.90%

Community, social and personal services 6.25% 5.08% 5.07%

General government 12.88% 9.43% 9.35%

Expenditure (%)

Durable Goods 10.12% 10.08% 10.55%

Semi-Durable Goods 12.58% 13.00% 13.83%

Non-Durable Goods 35.82% 36.02% 34.66%

Services 41.48% 40.90% 40.96%

Domestic Fixed Investment (%)

Buildings and construction works 37.36% 32.57% 32.97%

Machinery and other equipment 40.79% 49.22% 48.17%

Transport equipment 20.13% 16.64% 17.18%

Transfer costs 1.72% 1.58% 1.67%

Source: Urban-Econ Estimates based on Quantec’s Standardised Regional Dataset (2011)

SECTION 1 INTRODUCTION

1.1 Overview of the iLembe District Economy

The iLembe District Municipality is situated on the east coast of South Africa, in the KwaZulu-Natal Province.

iLembe is one of the 11 district municipalities of the KwaZulu-Natal province and is also the smallest District

Municipality in the province, with a total population of approximately 563 000. The District Municipality

covers approximately 3260 square kilometres and is divided into four local municipalities. The four

municipalities are:

Ndwedwe Local Municipality

Mandeni Local Municipality

KwaDukuza Local Municipality

Maphumulo Local Municipality

iLembe is located between two of Africa’s busiest ports,

Durban and Richards Bay, and is therefore well positioned

not only to local, but also international markets. Despite

its strategic location, iLembe faces numerous economic

challenges such as the high levels of poverty in the rural

inland areas, which contrasts with rapid development

along its coastal regions. The District has been proactive

in developing a broad based intervention to facilitate local

economic development in response to its challenges of

high rates of unemployment and correspondingly high

levels of poverty. Enterprise iLembe is the Economic

Development Agency of iLembe District Municipality with

its key mandate to drive economic development and

promote trade and investment.

1.2 Background and Objective of the Study

This intelligence report comprises an assessment of key economic indicators for the iLembe District

Municipality for the second quarter of 2011, i.e. April – June 2011. This report will form part of the

composite economic analysis for the entire 2011 period, to be completed in phases at the end of each

quarter.

What’s new this quarter?

Import data has been added to the International Trade section;

The number of households for Greater KwaDukuza town and Greater Ballito has been added to the

demographics section;

The SAARF Living Standard Measures for KwaZulu-Natal have been added;

Page | 8


International Airport passenger movements and Port movements for Durban and Richards Bay have

been added to the Economic Activity section;

Vehicle registration figures for Mapumulo, Ndwedwe and Stanger licensing districts have been

added;

Location Quotients, a tress index, and shift-share analysis, have been added to the Economic

Activity section;

Segments of the FNB House Price Index report for South Africa have been added;

The BER/RMB Business Confidence Index for South Africa as well as the Business Barometer for KZN

has been added to the Business Confidence section;

A comparable economic risk profile for iLembe has been added to the Business Confidence Section;

Results from the Ballito Business Survey conducted by Enterprise iLembe and the iLembe Chamber

of Commerce, Industry and Tourism in Ballito as part of their Business Expansion and Retention

Programme have been added.

Basic tourism statistics for KZN have been added in the new ‘Tourism’ section.

The overall objective of this project is to present economic indicators and economic intelligence to assist

Enterprise iLembe in driving its mandate, which is to promote trade and investment in the District of iLembe.

This is the second phase of the quarterly reports that Enterprise iLembe intend on publishing for a two-year

period. This second report is still a work in progress and comprises largely of desktop research and

secondary data collection from various sources, future quarterly reports will be augmented with primary

research surveys and interviews with key stakeholders.

1.3 Methodology

This report utilises secondary data as a base off which estimates and projections are developed. Up-to-date

data is available on a district and local municipal level for most of the indicators presented (up to 2010),

however, some indicators are extrapolated in order to pull more outdated data (up to 2008 and 2009)

through into the first quarter of 2011.

1.4 Key Economic Indicators

The following key indicators are utilised during this study:

Population in District and Local Municipalities

o Population growth

o Population per age group

o Population per racial group

o Population per gender

o Number of households per main place

Socio-Economic Characteristics

o Energy for electricity

o Type of toilet

o Water source

Page | 9


o Dwelling types

Labour Statistics

o Employment

o Employment by Sector

o Employment by type (formal and informal)

o Employment by skill level

SAARF Living Standard Measures per province

Economic Activity

o Sector Contribution to GGP

o Income and Expenditure profile

o Domestic Fixed Capital Investment by type

o Domestic Fixed Capital Investment by industry

o Tress Index

o Location Quotient

o Shift-Share Analysis

o Vehicle population statistics

o Airport Passenger Movements

o Port movements

o FNB house price index

International Trade

o KZN exports and imports by district

o iLembe exports and imports by product

Tourism

Business Confidence

o SAARF Business Confidence Index

o BER/RMB Business Confidence Index

o TIKZN Business Barometer

o iLembe Economic Risk Analysis

Results of the Ballito Business Survey

1.4 What to expect in the 3rd

Quarterly report

Additional information that would be added to the 3rd Quarterly Report is:

The number of building plans approved per Local Municipality

The number of electricity and water connections made per Local Municipality

The number telephone connections made

Municipal rates comparison

Business Confidence Index for iLembe specifically

Tourism statistics for iLembe specifically

New projects and investment opportunities in iLembe

New format with more pictures, emphasis on graphs/ tables and less wording

SECTION 2 ECONOMIC INDICATORS AND ANALYSIS

This section comprises the bulk of the economic intelligence and statistical analysis, and is broken down into

a number of sub-sectors, which include: a demographic profile; a socio-economic profile; education,

employment and skills; economic activity; and international trade and business confidence.

2.1 Demographic Profile

The iLembe District has experienced an average quarterly growth rate of 0.09% in population since 2000,

bringing the population total in quarter 2 of 2011 to approximately 563,073 people. This accounts for 5.26%

of the total population of KwaZulu-Natal.

Table 2: Population and Households in Quarter 2 (2011)

Population Households

Number Average Quarterly

Growth Rate

(2000 – 2010)

Number Average Quarterly

Growth Rate

(2000 – 2010)

iLembe 563,073 0.09% 134,723 0.67%

Mandeni Local Municipality 131,874 0.46% 36,802 1.74%

KwaDukuza Local Municipality 172,944 1.11% 47,035 1.12%

Ndwedwe Local Municipality 143,941 -0.87% 29,484 -0.40%

Maphumulo Local Municipality 114,418 -0.48% 21,433 -0.40%


The total number of households has increased at a faster quarterly rate than population (0.67%), indicating

that the number of people per household has declined. Both Mandeni and KwaDukuza experienced a positive

quarterly average growth rate, with Ndwedwe and Maphumulo experiencing negative population and

household growth rates.

This is consistent with provincial and national trends which indicate that an increasing proportion of the

population previously housed in rural areas are migrating to urban areas in search of employment and other

opportunities. This is expected given that KwaDukuza and Mandeni house much of the formal economic

activity in the region.

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Table 3: Household number for main places

Main Place Number of Households

Greater Ballito1 7 546

Greater KwaDukuza Town2 25 229

Source: StatsSA household count by sub-place 2010

Graph 1 displays the racial profile of the district and local municipalities. For the district and all local

municipalities besides KwaDukuza, Africans comprise over 90% of the total population, with KwaDukuza

having the largest Asian population (predominately Indian) of 18.3%. KwaDukuza also contributes the

largest portion of Whites (5.3%) of which a large numbers reside in the urban area of Ballito. Maphumulo

comprises the largest African population (99.9%). In terms of average quarterly growth rates, the Coloured

population experienced the most rapid growth (0.15% per quarter since 2000), while the White population

experienced the slowest growth (0.006% per quarter since 2000).

Graph 1 Racial Profile for Quarter 2 (2011)


Graph 2 displays the gender distribution of the district and local populations. The gender split is fairly equal

for most of the municipalities besides Maphumulo, which comprises 44.8% of males and 55.2% of females.

1 Greater Ballito includes Ballito Bay, Compensation Beach, Deepdale, Deepdene, Tugela, Willard’s Beach, Blythedale

Beach, Darnall, Salt Rock, Shaka’s Rock, Shakaskraal, Tinley Manor beach, Zinkwazi Beach 2 Greater KwaDukuza town includes Blowhard Estate, Chris Hani, Etete, Glen Hills, Ntabaningi, Shakaville, UCC informal,

Groutville amongst other smaller areas

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

Black Coloured Asian White

iLembe

Mandeni LocalMunicipality

KwaDukuza LocalMunicipality

Ndwedwe LocalMunicipality

Maphumulo LocalMunicipality

Page | 12


Graph 2 Gender profile for Quarter 2 (2011)


Graph 3 provides an indication of the age distribution within the district. From the graph it is clear that

Maphumulo has a much greater percentage of the population under the age of 19 years (54.2%) in

comparison with iLembe (44.5%). For all the local municipalities as well as the district, over 50% of the

population falls under the age of 24 years old, while 62.5% of the iLembe population falls within the working

age bracket (15 – 64 years). The most substantial decline in growth in iLembe is within the 0 – 14 year age

bracket, which experienced an average decline in growth of 0.43% per quarter. This trend is also identified

in the local municipal population between 0 – 14 years of age. The most substantial increases in growth

occur in the over 70 year’s bracket. There are no obvious explanations for these growth trends and this

needs to be investigated further.

Graph 3 Age Distribution for Quarter 2 (2011)


0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

iLembe Mandeni LocalMunicipality




Male

Female

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

iLembe





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The final demographic indicator is that of HIV positive individuals and AIDS Deaths recorded. Graph 4

displays these trends.

Graph 4 HIV Positive and AIDS deaths in Quarter 2 (2011)


In the first quarter of 2011, Mandeni had the highest incidence of HIV with almost 20% of the population

being infected by the virus, while 16.6% of the district population were infected. All of the municipalities

have however experienced a decline in HIV prevalence growth over the period 2000 – 2010, with an average

quarterly decline of 0.75% in iLembe. With regards to AIDS deaths, the same trend is observed, however at

an even greater decline of 1.95% per quarter. This is a positive sign and indicates that preventative

measures have been fairly successful in reducing the incidence of HIV and related AIDS deaths within the

district.

2.2 Socio-Economic Indicators

Four socio-economic indicators are assessed before moving onto an analysis of growth indicators. The

indicators analysed below are used as a measure of growth of social infrastructure such electricity, access to

water, type of housing and type of toilets. Graph 5 below displays the energy used for lighting.

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%





HIV Positive

AIDS Deaths

Key Findings:

Out-migration of residents from Ndwedwe and Maphumulo to areas with urban-centres such as

KwaDukuza and Mandeni;

iLembe has experienced a decline in HIV prevalence of 0.75% per quarter or 3% per annum

Page | 14


Figure 5 Energy used for Lighting for Quarter 2 (2011)


Electricity is the major source of energy for lighting in the district and both the Mandeni and KwaDukuza

local municipalities, accounting for 63%, 78%, and 86% of total energy sources respectively. Ndwedwe and

Maphumulo are however both lagging behind the district trend with only 28% and 35% of the population

having access to electricity respectively, although growth trends indicate that Maphumulo has experienced a

1.7% average quarterly growth rate in electricity usage (however off a low base). These households are

predominately using candles as their main source of energy.

The type of toilet used is displayed in graph 6 below. The percentage of people using flush or chemical

toilets is still relatively low for all municipalities, with an average of 27.5% for iLembe. This trend is higher

for both Mandeni and KwaDukuza (34.6% and 38.3% respectively), with Ndwedwe only achieving a rate of

16% and Maphumulo a very low rate of 7.4%.

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

iLembe Mandeni Local Municipality KwaDukuza Local Municipality

Ndwedwe Local Municipality Maphumulo Local Municipality

Page | 15


Graph 6 Type of Toilet for Quarter 2 (2011)


The largest source of toilet facility for all municipalities are pit latrine toilets, with this accounting 70% in

Maphumulo, and 56% for the entire district. This highlights the importance of enhancing the effectiveness of

service delivery and investment into bulk infrastructure in the region. Graph 7 displays the distribution of

access to water in iLembe.

Graph 7 Source of Water in Quarter 2 (2011)


KwaDukuza has the highest occurrence of water within the dwelling of 27.4% of the population, with the

district average of almost 17% of the population. Again, Ndwedwe and Maphumulo are lagging behind with

only 5.2% and 5.9% of their respective populations having access to water within their dwelling. A large

portion of the district population (20.3%) still use a dam, river, stream or spring for water, with the largest

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

iLembe





0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%iLembe


KwaDukuzaLocalMunicipality


MaphumuloLocalMunicipality

Page | 16


contributing local municipalities being Ndwedwe (36.7%) and Maphumulo (55.5%). Graph 8 displays the

final socio-economic indicator, namely the type of dwelling occupied by the respective populations.

Graph 8 Type of Dwelling in Quarter 2 (2011)


38% of the district population live in a brick structure on a separate stand, i.e: a formal house structure.

The largest contributor to this is KwaDukuza (50% of the population) and Mandeni (42% of the population),

with Ndwedwe and Maphumulo only contributing 26% and 21% respectively. About 32% of the district

population lived in a traditional dwelling made from traditional materials, of which Ndwedwe and Maphumulo

were the largest contributing populations (49.7% and 69.3% respectively). About 9% of the iLembe

population lived in an informal dwelling or shack, with contribution from 15.1% of the Mandeni population,

and 12.4% of the KwaDukuza population. This could be explained by the negative population growth rates

for Ndwedwe and Maphumulo, where people have moved into informal dwellings in KwaDukuza and Mandeni

in search of employment.

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Key Findings:

Ndwedwe and Maphumulo are lagging behind the district with regards access to electricity;

Less than 30% of the district population have access to a flush or chemical toilet;

Less than 17% of households have access to water inside their dwelling;

Only 9% of the district population live in informal settlements.

Page | 17


2.3 Employment, Education and Skills

This section moves onto access the employment, and education and skills levels of the district and local

municipalities, which will provide an understanding of the current labour force within iLembe. Graph 9

provides a picture of the current employment environment in the district and local municipalities.

Graph 9 Employment Status in Quarter 2 (2011)


Over 60% of the district population, as well as Mandeni, KwaDukuza and Ndwedwe fall within the working

age bracket of 16 – 65 years old, with this figure being 54.9% for Maphumulo. This indicates that there is a

fairly large labour force within the district. However, in terms of employment, only about 28% of the

population was formally and informally employed in quarter 2 of 2011, with this figure being as low as 12%

for Maphumulo.

The percentage of unemployed people is low, with between 3% and 12%, however this does not give a true

reflection of the current employment situation due to the high number of not-economically active persons.

For all municipalities the percentage of not-economically active persons is over 50%, with the district at

64.2% and Maphumulo at 84.8%. This indicates that a very large portion of the workforce has become

despondent and is no longer actively seeking employment.

In terms of growth in employment, it is important to note that the average quarterly growth rate for the

district is -0.44%, which converts into an annualised average growth rate of approximately -1.7%. This

indicates that employment is declining at a fairly rapid rate, and again highlights the dire need for

investment into the region to create employment opportunities. An interesting observation is that

KwaDukuza, although having the largest percentage of employment in the district, has experienced the

greatest decline in average quarterly growth in the district of -0.71%, a -2.85% average annual decline.

Given that KwaDukuza is the largest business and retail centre in the district (although Ballito as a town is

growing in significance), this is a trend that must be investigated further in order to identify the reasons for

0

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Population - Workingage (16 - 65 years

old)

Employed - Formaland informal

Unemployed Not economicallyactive

iLembe





Page | 18


this decline. Maphumulo on the other hand, although experiencing the lowest employment rates, has

achieved the greatest average annual employment growth in the district of 3.25%, a 0.81% average

quarterly increase in employment.

Graph 10 displays a picture of the two official definitions of unemployment for the district. The strict

definition of employment displays unemployed persons as a percentage of working age population less the

not-economically active population. The expanded definition on the other hand displays the number of

unemployed AND not-economically active persons as a percentage of the working-age population. Although

the strict definition is more common, it omits those who are not employed due to becoming discouraged

from seeking work. Additionally, the expanded definition also includes those who are not seeking work such

as housewives and students and therefore must be used with a degree of caution.

Graph 10 Employment Rate - Strict and Expanded in Quarter 2 (2011)


In terms of the strict definition of employment, approximately 22% of the district population are

unemployed compared with 27% in Mandeni, 16% in KwaDukuza, almost 30% in Ndwedwe and 19.9% in

Maphumulo. For the expanded definition, due to the large number of not-economically active persons, the

unemployment rate is as high 87.8% in Maphumulo, 80.8% in Ndwedwe, and 72% in the district. Graph 11

displays the distribution of formal and informally employed persons.

0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%

100.0%


KwaDukuzaLocal

Municipality


MaphumuloLocal

Municipality

Unemployment Rate (Strict)

Unemployment Rate (Expanded)

Page | 19


Graph 11 Formal and Informal Employment in Quarter 2 (2011)


In iLembe, about 22% of the working age population are informally employed, while approximately 78% are

formally employed. This highlights the significance of the informal economy, not only with iLembe, but

within the country as a whole. This also identifies the need to provide skills development and training to

informal businesses to ensure that they develop the necessary business and financial skills in order to

expand and formalise their business. Within the district, all the local municipalities display a similar trend,

however with only 15% informal employment displayed in Maphumulo. Graph 12 displays the contribution of

each industry to employment in the first quarter 2011.

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iLembe





Informaly Employed

Formally Employed

Page | 20


Graph 12 Employment contribution by Sector for Quarter 2 (2011)


Employment in the agricultural sector is relatively small with approximately 9071 jobs in quarter 2 of 2011,

which translates to 8.9% of total employment in iLembe. This sector in Ndwedwe does however contribute to

18.9% of total employment, indicating its significance. Although employment in agriculture is currently less

than 10% of total employment in iLembe, there is massive potential for the district to expand agricultural

production in order to create sustainable employment. Recent initiatives implemented by Enterprise iLembe

have highlighted the success of agricultural projects in creating sustainable employment and skills

development and training, and are expected to kick-start other agricultural projects within the region.

Manufacturing is another significant sector within the district, and creates approximately 16 714 jobs which

comprise 16.5% of total employment in the district. This has predominately been driven by activities within

the Mandeni and KwaDukuza local municipalities, both which have a substantial industrial capacity,

contributing 25.4% and 15.5% to total employment respectively. Although the contribution to

manufacturing differs substantially, the absolute employment numbers are similar, with 7473 employed in

Mandeni, and 7416 employed in KwaDukuza.

The wholesale, retail, catering and accommodation sector is the largest contributing sector to employment in

iLembe, accounting for approximately 22% of total employment. This same sector contributes 26%, 23.6%,

and 19.7% to total employment in Mandeni, KwaDukuza and Ndwedwe respectively. The sector has grown

at an average annual rate of 2.6% over since 2000, indicating the strength of the sector. KwaDukuza is the

economic hub of the distinct and possesses most of the formal retail, wholesale and accommodation facilities

within the district, and therefore is the largest contributing municipality with about 11287 people employed

in the sector.

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A fairly significant sector is that of finance, insurance, real estate, and business services, which contributed

13.8% to total employment in quarter 1 of 2011, which accounts for 14,037 jobs. This same sector

contributes almost 25.6% to total employment in Mandeni, 11% in KwaDukuza, almost 8% in Maphumulo

and just more than 6% in Ndwedwe. This sector has growth relatively well since 2000, with an average

annual growth rate of almost 4%.

The community, social and personal services sector is another significant sector within the district,

contributing 17.3% to total employment in iLembe, which consists of about 17580 jobs. This sector is the

largest contributing sector within the Maphumulo municipality (32.6%) and also contributes 20.8% and 15%

to total employment in KwaDukuza and Ndwedwe. The sector has experienced an average annual growth

rate of approximately 1.75% since 2000.

The final sector is that of general government, and accounts predominately for employment within the

district and local government departments and organisations. This sector contributes 10.8% to total

employment in the district, which comprises 10946 jobs, and has experienced an average annual growth of

about 3.5% since 2000. The sector contributes the most to employment in the Ndwedwe and Maphumulo

local municipalities, with 15.9% and 31.9% respectively. Graph 13 displays the breakdown of formal

employment into the three skills categories.

Graph 13 Formal Employment by Skill Level in Quarter 2 (2011)


It is clear from the above graph that the skills profile of both the district and local municipalities are fairly

similar, besides some variation within the Mandeni municipality. In terms of highly skilled individuals,

between 10.3% and 13.6% of the formally employed in all municipalities are highly skilled, with 13.6% of

those formally employed in Mandeni being highly-skilled. This is predominately due to the industrial

development within the Isithebe Industrial Estate which attracts a greater number of highly-skilled workers

to the area.

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Highly Skilled

Skilled

Semi and Unskilled

Page | 22


In terms of skilled employees, just over 40% of the formally employed district population are skilled

persons, with this contribution being a little less in KwaDukuza and Ndwedwe due to more semi-skilled and

unskilled employees.

Graph 14 displays the level of education achieved by the district and local populations as at quarter 1 of

2011.

Graph 14 Level of Education Received in Quarter 2 (2011)


Almost 14% of the district population had no schooling, with about 20% of the Maphumulo population also

not having any schooling. Less than 10% of the iLembe population received a Grade 12, with this figure

being only 5.5% for Ndwedwe and 6.3% for Maphumulo. Only 2.8% of the district population received a

tertiary education, with the highest bring 5.1% in KwaDukuza.

Before moving onto an analysis of economic activity, the report provides an assessment of Enterprise

iLembe projects and the related job creation impact of these projects.

Since the inception of Enterprise iLembe at the end of 2009, they have funded and managed 13 projects,

and are in the process of facilitating another 10 projects. The total direct investment for the Enterprise

iLembe-funded projects is R54.3 million rand. Calculations done by Enterprise iLembe indicate that

approximately 1041 direct and indirect jobs have been created during these projects, which include agri-

hubs, open farms, vineyards and winery, and a biodiesel plant to name a few. The agri-hubs project itself

has created 53 jobs, of which 28 are youths, while the vineyards project has created 123 jobs, with 46 of

these being youths.

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Page | 23


2.4 SAARF Living Standard Measure

The South African Advertising Research Foundation produces their Living Standard Measure every half year.

This data segments the surveyed population into different living standard groups determined by their

lifestyle. Table 1 describes the different segments.

Table 4 Description of SAARF Living Standard Measures

Demographics Average household income per month

Media General

LSM 1 Female 50+ Some High school Level Achieved Rural: Traditional Hut

R1 493 Radio: Commercial radio; mainly African Language Services (ALS)- Umhlobo Wenene FM, Ukhozi FM

Minimal access to services Minimal ownership of durables, except radio sets

LSM 2 Female 15 – 24, 50+ Some High School Rural: Traditional Hut

R1 732 Same as above Water on plot Minimal ownership of durables, except radio sets and stoves

LSM 3 Female15 – 24, 35-49Up to some high Rural: House/Cluster House/Town House

R2 052 Same as above + TV: SABC 1 Electricity, water on plot Minimal ownership of durables, except radio sets and stoves

LSM 4 Female 15- 24 Matric Rural: House/Cluster House/Town House

R2 829 Same as above + TV: SABC 1,2, ETV

Electricity, water on plot, flush toilet, TV sets, hi-fi/radio set, electric hotplates, fridge

LSM 5 Male 15-24 Up to Matric Urban

R3 832 Same as above + TV: SABC 1,2,3, E.TV daily/Weekly Newspapers, Magazines

Electricity, water, flush toilet, TV sets, hi-fi/radio set, stove, fridge

Key Findings:

Over 60% of the district population fall within the working age bracket (16 – 65 years);

Only 28% of the working age population are employed in iLembe, with over 63% being not

economically-active;

22% of the working-age population are informally employed;

‘Manufacturing’; ‘wholesale and retail, catering and accommodation’; ‘finance, insurance, real

estate and business services’; and ‘community, social and personal services’ contribute almost

70% to those formally employed;

Almost 14% of the district population have no schooling, while less than 10% of the population

received a Grade 12;

Enterprise iLembe-funded project have injected R54 million into the local economy, and created

approximately 1041 direct and indirect jobs.

Page | 24


Demographics Average household income per month

Media General

LSM 6 Female 25-49 Up to matric and higher Urban

R6 398 Radio: Wide range of commercial & community radio TV: SABC 1,2,3, e.tv Daily/Weekly Newspapers, Magazines Accessed internet 4 weeks Cinema & Outdoor

Full access to services Increased ownership of durables plus motor vehicle

LSM 7 Female 25+ Matric and higher Urban

R9 693

Same as above + TV: Mnet

Full access to services Increased ownership of durables plus motor vehicle

LSM 8 Female 35+ Matric and higher Urban

R13 612 Same as above + TV: DSTV Full access to services Full ownership of durables, incl. DVD, PC and satellite dish

LSM 9

Male 35+ Matric and higher Urban

R18 371 Same as above Same as above

LSM 10

Male 35+ Matric and higher Urban

R27 303 Same as above Same as above

Source: SAARF Segmentation Tools Presentation, www.saarf.co.za

Table 5 on the following page shows the percentage of people within each LSM group that belong to each

province. These numbers should be read with caution as they are not representative of the entire

population but rather a sample group. This should be seen as a segmentation of the more densely

populated areas within each province. This is useful as a measure of Living Standards for areas such as

greater Ballito and greater KwaDukuza. KwaZulu-Natal contains the highest percentage of LSM 2 people

(39.5%). From table 4 above we can see that this is a female headed household, aged 15-24 and 50+, with

some high school level education achieved. This group of people live in huts, earn R1 732 per month, own

only radios and stoves and have minimal access to services. In fact, LSM groups 1-4 all feature highly in

KZN, along with the Eastern Cape. This shows that KZN has a large amount of people in the denser areas

with low Living Standards relative to other provinces. However, as the LSM groups increase, the Eastern

Cape does not feature, whereas KZN still remains amongst the top three provinces (along with W.Cape and

Gauteng). KZN is unique in this trend which shows that it has the highest level of inequality in Living

Standards amongst households in the country.

Furthermore, the table shows that proportions of households in the lower LSM groups have increased from

June 2010 to December 2010, whereas most of the higher LSM groups have reduced since June 2010. This

shows that, relative to other provinces, the number of households in KZN in high LSM groups are remaining

the same or decreasing, while the number of households in low LSM groups are remaining the same or

increasing. This is not a positive trend.

http://www.saarf.co.za/

Table 5 Percentage contribution to each LSM group by province

Province (% contribution)

Date No of Informants

Population ('000)

W. Cape N. Cape Free State

E. Cape KwaZulu-Natal

Mpumalanga Limpopo Gauteng North West

LSM 1 Jun-10 243 950 - 0.8 1.9 50.2 34.7 1.9 6.7 - 3.7

Dec-10 219 808 - 1.3 2.7 57.6 29.8 2.3 1.8 - 4.5

LSM 2 Jun-10 618 2223 0.3 2.5 0.9 33 37.7 5.6 9.9 1.4 8.7

Dec-10 559 1944 0.3 2.2 1.7 34.7 39.5 4 7.4 1.6 8.7

LSM 3 Jun-10 826 2609 0.9 3.6 3.8 19.8 29.3 7.3 22 4.3 9

Dec-10 762 2394 0.6 2.9 4.8 25 32.4 6.5 16.9 3.3 7.5

LSM 4 Jun-10 1907 4760 2.3 2.9 6.4 16 24.4 9.7 21.8 6.4 10.1

Dec-10 1818 4744 2 3.3 5.5 16.4 24.5 9.5 24 4.4 10.3

LSM 5 Jun-10 3074 5701 4.7 2.6 13.1 11.7 15.7 10.2 16.2 13.5 12.2

Dec-10 2942 5636 4.5 2.7 11.8 10.9 17.5 10.5 17.9 12.2 12.1

LSM 6 Jun-10 5290 6562 13.1 1.7 8.2 11.2 15.4 7.9 8.7 24.7 9.1

Dec-10 5228 6891 12.1 1.6 8.2 10.8 15.3 7.9 9.5 25.7 8.9

LSM 7 Jun-10 3528 3372 20.9 1.3 4.5 8.3 15.3 5.1 3.9 35.9 4.9

Dec-10 3647 3621 21.4 1.2 5.6 8.6 14.8 4.9 4.6 33.9 5.1

LSM 8 Jun-10 3033 2748 22 1.1 4.3 7.4 17.6 4.5 3.6 34.4 4.9

Dec-10 3202 2830 21.3 1.4 4.6 7.5 17.1 5.8 3.5 33.1 5.5

LSM 9 Jun-10 3776 3065 20.4 2.1 4.2 7.7 20.1 3.5 3 34.4 4.5

Dec-10 3861 3038 20.8 1.7 4.4 7.4 19.6 3.7 2.8 34.5 5.1

LSM 10 Jun-10 2875 2029 15.8 1.4 4 5.8 26.3 2.2 1.9 40.9 1.7

Dec-10 2922 2114 14.8 1.7 3.9 5.1 25.8 2.2 1.8 42.1 2.5

Source: SAARF Technical Report 2011, www.saarf.co.za

http://www.saarf.co.za/

2.4 Economic Activity

Graph 15 displays the contribution of each industry to total GGP in the second quarter of 2011. Real GGP

(Nominal GGP less inflation) for the second quarter in iLembe was estimated to be approximately R2.672

billion, which consisted of Mandeni (R849 mil), KwaDukuza (R1.2 bil), Ndwedwe (R397 mil) and Maphumulo

(R178 mil).

Agriculture, although only accounting for 9.4% of total GGP in iLembe, contributed just over 22% in

Ndwedwe, indicating the significance of this sector to the local economy of Ndwedwe. A number of

agriculturally-related initiatives have been completed, or recently been implemented by Enterprise iLembe

within most of the local municipalities, and it is expected that these activities once fully established will

enhance the contribution of the agriculture sector within iLembe. In addition, opportunities now exist for the

export of time-sensitive agricultural products and agri-processing given the establishment of the Dube

Tradeport, and future economic development initiative need to identify these opportunities and capitalise on

them.

Graph 15 GGP for Quarter 2 (2011)


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The most significant sector within the district is manufacturing, contributing 28.5% to total GGP.

Manufacturing accounts for 36.5% of the Mandeni economy, 29% of the KwaDukuza economy, and 18.7%

of the Ndwedwe economy, with manufacturing in Maphumulo only contributing 7.8%. The manufacturing

sector in Ndwedwe, although on a small-scale, experienced about 7.5% average annual growth since 2000,

with growth in Mandeni declining at -0.5% per annum on average, increasing 2.6% in KwaDukuza, and

increasing by 2.7% annually on average in Maphumulo.

This again highlights the importance of manufacturing in the region, and the need to enhance the capacity of

the manufacturing sector in order to create sustainable employment. The close proximity of iLembe to Dube

Tradeport has opened up numerous opportunities for manufacturers, especially manufacturers of goods for

export, and this avenue needs to be further explored and exploited by local manufacturers.

Wholesale and retail trade, and catering and accommodation is another significant sector within the district,

contributing 15.1% to total GGP in the district. This sector has experienced rapid growth since 2000 (an

average of 5.5% per annum), highlighting the importance of this sector within the district. The sector also

contributes 15.2% to the Mandeni economy, 16.6% to the KwaDukuza economy, and 14.6% to the

Ndwedwe economy.

Transport and storage, although only contributing 7.2% to the total district GGP, contributed 23.2% to the

GGP of Maphumulo, while this sector only contributed about 5% to total GGP in Mandeni, 6.6% in

KwaDukuza and almost 6.4% in Ndwedwe. This sector achieved modest growth since 2000, with an average

annual growth rate of 2.6% for the district.

The finance, insurance, real estate and business services sector contributed just under 21% to total GGP in

the district, and has experienced substantial average annual growth since 2000 (7.7%). This was primarily

driven by the huge growth in this sector within Mandeni, which experienced a 17.4% average annual growth

rate, while this sector contributed over 31.7% to the total GGP of Mandeni. This sector also contributed

about 18.6% to total GGP in KwaDukuza, which has experienced a more modest 3.5% average annual

growth since 2000.

Community, social and personal services only contributed 5.1% to total GGP in iLembe, although

experiencing a 3.6% average annual growth rate, with this sector contributing 19.2% to GGP in Maphumulo.

The general government sector contributed 9.3% to total district GGP, growing at an average annual growth

rate of just over 3% since 2000. This sector contributes 27.4% to the economy of Maphumulo and has

grown at an average annual rate of almost 7% since 2000.

The next indicator of economic activity under review is that of income and expenditure. Table 6 displays the

second quarter household income and expenditure for each of the municipalities, and the breakdown of

income into remuneration and unearned income.

Page | 28


Table 6: Total Household Income and Expenditure for Quarter 2 2011 (Rm)

Rand Millions iLembe Mandeni Local Municipality




Total Household Income 2 344 753 935 373 283

Remuneration 1 487 467 626 227 167

Unearned Income 857 286 309 146 117

Total Household Expenditure 2 287 736 947 343 261


Total household income for the first quarter was estimated at R2, 344 billion in iLembe, of which 97.6%

(R2,287 billion) was used as household expenditure. Of total income, remuneration accounted for 63.4%,

whole unearned income accounted for 36.6% of total income. Mandeni and KwaDukuza accounted for 32%

and almost 40% respectively to total household income in the district, with total expenditure in KwaDukuza

exceeding total income, indicating that people are spending on credit. Maphumulo has the highest proportion

of unearned income, which accounted for over 41% of total household income. This indicates that a

relatively large portion of households received grants in Maphumulo, with over a third of households in the

district surviving on government grants. Graph 16 displays the contribution of expenditure across the four

categories of expenditure for each municipality.

Graph 16 Distribution of Expenditure in Quarter 2 (2011)


Durable goods comprised about 10% - 11% of total expenditure within all of the municipalities, with semi-

durable goods comprising between 12% - 17% of total expenditure. The most significant categories of

expenditure are non-durable goods and services, which account for between 72% - 77% of total

expenditure. Non-durable goods expenditure was the highest in Ndwedwe (39.5% of expenditure), while

services contributed 39% to expenditure in Mandeni, almost 46% in KwaDukuza, and almost 36% in both

Ndwedwe and Maphumulo. This provides some indication of where households within each municipality are

spending their money, while graph 17 provides a detailed breakdown of the sub-categories within each main

category as a percentage of total expenditure.

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Durable Goods

Semi-Durable Goods

Non-Durable Goods

Services

Page | 29


Clothing and footwear contributed almost 9% to total expenditure in the district, reaching up to 11.6% of

total expenditure in Maphumulo, and only 7.2% in KwaDukuza. Food, beverages and tobacco is the largest

expenditure category contributing 23% to total expenditure in iLembe, and as high as 26% of total

expenditure in Ndwedwe.

Rental contributed 9.3% in the district, with this figure being only 5.3% in Maphumulo, and 6.9% in

Ndwedwe. Rentals contributed 8.6% in Mandeni, and almost 12% in KwaDukuza. This is expected given that

there is more formal, urban accommodation within KwaDukuza and Mandeni, and rentals are higher than the

other more rural local municipalities.

Medical services accounted for approximately 6.9% of total expenditure, and again are slightly more

expensive in Mandeni (6.8%) and KwaDukuza (7.5%) than Ndwedwe (5.8%) and Maphumulo (6.3%). With

regards to transport and communication, this sub-category of expenditure contributed almost 9.5% to total

expenditure in iLembe, and again accounted for a larger proportion of total expenditure in Mandeni (9.1%)

and KwaDukuza (10.9%) than Ndwedwe (7.4%) and Maphumulo (7.9%). The final category of significance

was miscellaneous services which accounted for approximately 8.5% of total expenditure. This category

includes any other services offered within the municipalities that are not indicated in the other service

categories.

Graph 17 Breakdown of Total Expenditure into Sub-Categories in Quarter 2 (2011)


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Durable Goods Semi-Durable Non-Durable Services

iLembe




MaphumuloLocalMunicipality

Page | 30


A final indicator of economic activity that is assessed is domestic fixed capital investment by type and

sector. Graph 18 displays the fixed capital investment per municipality for each type of investment.

The majority of fixed capital investment has been channelled into machinery and other equipment as well as

building and construction works. Investment in machinery and other equipment contributed 54% to capital

investment in Mandeni, 49% in KwaDukuza, 40% in Ndwedwe and 34% in Maphumulo. Investment into

transport equipment was relatively low across the municipality except in Maphumulo, where this investment

accounted for over 32% of total capital investment. Transfer costs are at 1.7% of total investment cost for

the district, with transfer costs accounting for more than double that (3.5%) in Mandeni.

Graph 18 Domestic Fixed Capital Investment by Type in Quarter 2 (2011)


In terms of real average growth since 2000, the district as well as Mandeni and KwaDukuza municipalities

only experienced a 2-4% increase in average annual growth of fixed capital investment, while Ndwedwe and

Maphumulo experienced 6% and 8% average annual growth respectively. Graph 19 displays the breakdown

of capital investment into the various sectors within iLembe.

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Transfer costs

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Page | 31


Graph 19 Domestic Fixed Capital Investment per Industry in Quarter 2 (2011)


From the above graph it is clear that domestic fixed investment in iLembe has been predominately

channelled into the manufacturing, transport, storage and communications, as well as finance, insurance,

real estate and business services sectors. However, within the local municipalities the situation varies

according to the comparative advantages of that municipality. 17.5% of investment within Mandeni was in

the finance sector, 38% into manufacturing, while investment into transport and storage contributed just

over 12%. Within KwaDukuza 10.9% of investment was into agriculture, 29% into manufacturing, 12.8%

into transport and storage and 13.5% into finance. Investment in Ndwedwe was more evenly distributed

between the sectors, with agriculture (17.5%), manufacturing (15.3%), electricity, gas and water (13.8%),

transport and storage (19%) and general government (10.7%) all contributing substantially. In Maphumulo,

investment was dominated by the transport, storage and communication sector (47%) and the general

government sector (almost 17%).

Table 7 Percentage contribution to GDP 2010

% contribution to GDP

Manufacturing 35.10

Personal and General Government Services 15.33

Agriculture, forestry and fishing 13.24

Wholesale & retail trade; hotels & restaurants 12.48

Finance, real estate and business services 11.69

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Agriculture, forestry and fishing

Mining and quarrying

Manufacturing

Electricity, gas and water

Construction

Wholesale and retail trade,catering and accommodation

Transport, storage andcommunication

Finance, insurance, real estate andbusiness services

Community, social and personalservices

Tress index 2010: 51.1



The tress index measures the diversity

of a particular economy on a scale of 0

(completely diverse) to 100

(completely concentrated).

Page | 32


Transport , storage and communication 6.73

Construction 2.80

Electricity, gas and water 1.95

Mining and quarrying 0.67

Source: KwaZulu-Natal Treasury, IGR Unit, iLembe Indicators

The tress index for iLembe in 2010 is 51.1 which means the economy of iLembe is slightly concentrated and

would be vulnerable to economic shocks. The tress index is not very high, however, and should not be a

reason for concern as long as the manufacturing sector remains diverse within itself. It is promising that

since 2006 the tress index has been slowly but steadily decreasing - this shows that the economy is

becoming more diverse.

Table 8 Employment Location Quotient for iLembe

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Agriculture, forestry and fishing 3.75 3.75 3.67 3.61 3.59 3.63

Mining and quarrying 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

Manufacturing 1.53 1.56 1.58 1.68 1.83 1.85

Electricity, gas and water 0.40 0.41 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.41

Construction 0.60 0.63 0.64 0.65 0.66 0.66

Wholesale & retail trade; hotels & restaurants 0.47 0.50 0.51 0.52 0.53 0.52

Transport , storage and communication 0.71 0.74 0.75 0.77 0.77 0.77

Finance, real estate and business services 0.52 0.55 0.56 0.57 0.58 0.57

Personal and General Government Services 0.74 0.74 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.71

Source: KwaZulu-Natal Treasury, IGR Unit, The KwaZulu-Natal Economy, A Risk and Conditions Monitor, Update1

LQ<1 Employment for iLembe in this industry is less than expected when compared to SA

LQ=1 Employment for iLembe in this industry is the same as employment for this industry in SA

LQ>1 Employment for iLembe in this industry is greater than expected when compared to SA

Most location quotients are less than 1 indicating that iLembe is employing proportionately less people per

industry than the rest of South Africa. This is especially true of the Electricity, gas and water industry (0.41)

and the wholesale and retail trade, hotels and restaurant sector (0.52). This means that employment in

those industries has potential to grow, it also means that iLembe does not have a comparative advantage in

these sectors. The location quotient for the Agriculture, forestry and Fishery sector is 3.63 which shows that

employment in this sector in iLembe is proportionally much higher than the rest of South Africa. Shocks to

that industry would result in substantial employment loss for the municipality. This is true also of the

manufacturing industry which has a location quotient of 1.85.

Page | 33


Graph 20 Shift-Share Analysis for iLembe


As we can see from the above graph, 2009 was a low point for employment in iLembe. This drop in

employment can be explained by the national state of the economy (due to the similar drop in national share

index), which can in turn be explained by the global economic crisis. Interestingly, relative to national

industry decline, iLembe’s industries faired quite well which shows that the factors unique to iLembe

protected growth in the local economy from the economic downturn. However, this is a double edged sword

for when it comes to the recovery that South Africa has been experiencing in 2010/2011, iLembe has yet to

catch up with national growth in employment figures.

-2,500.00

-2,000.00

-1,500.00

-1,000.00

-500.00

0.00

500.00

1,000.00

1,500.00

2,000.00

2,500.00

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

National Share Industry Mix

Regional Shift Total Employment Change

Shift-Share analysis:

National Share: Refers to the change in iLembe’s employment (growth) that can be attributed to the

total change in employment in South Africa. It represents the affect of the economic environment in

South Africa on iLembe.

Industry Mix: This refers to the change in iLembe’s employment that can be attributed to the change in

employment of specific industries in South Africa. It represents the affect of South Africa’s high or low

growth industries at any specific time on iLembe.

Regional Shift: This refers to the change in iLembe’s industry employment that can be attributed to

factors unique to iLembe’s economy. It compares employment growth in a specific industry in iLembe

to the employment growth of that same industry in South Africa. It therefore shows where iLembe has

the competitive advantage by showing which local industries are growing at a faster rate than South

African industries.

Page | 34


Table 9 Shift Share analysis for iLembe by industry 2009/2010

National Share

Industry Mix

Regional Shift

Change in employment

Agriculture, forestry and fishing -124.34 -130 100.72 -153

Mining and quarrying -1.17 3 3.72 5

Manufacturing -126.97 -193 43.76 -276

Electricity, gas and water -1.38 -10 1.00 -10

Construction -17.86 3 -12.25 -27

Wholesale & retail trade; hotels & restaurants

-44.84 -13 -34.78 -92

Transport , storage and communication

-18.41 33 -17.05 -2

Finance, real estate and business services

-43.56 -27 -33.53 -104

Personal and General Government Services

-79.98 96 -53.77 -38


Graph 21 Shift-Share analysis for iLembe by industry 2009/2010


It is clear from the graph that Agriculture and Manufacturing are the two sectors which enjoy a comparative

advantage in iLembe as they have grown at a better rate over the 2009/2010 period than their national

-300.00

-250.00

-200.00

-150.00

-100.00

-50.00

0.00

50.00

100.00

150.00

National Share Industry Mix Regional Shift Change inemployment

Agriculture, forestry and fishing

Mining and quarrying

Manufacturing

Electricity, gas and water

Construction

Wholesale & retail trade; hotels &restaurants

Transport , storage andcommunication

Finance, real estate and businessservices

Personal and General GovernmentServices

Page | 35


counterparts. Although these sectors have experienced a negative change in employment, this has been

due to external factors. The health of these industries in iLembe is relatively very good and therefore

investment should be directed into these two sectors.

The fact that the main lagging industry is Government Services is perhaps not such a bad thing as it shows

that growth in the iLembe economy is becoming less dependent on government spending than other

municipalities in South Africa. Other lagging industries include trade and finance which have also endured

negative growth. Although this negative growth partly reflects the economic environment in South Africa it

is also partly due to unique factors within iLembe’s economic environment which shows that iLembe is not

an economy with a comparative advantage in trade and financial services.

While there was a slight decline in the sale of passenger cars and heavy commercial vehicles in Quarter 1,

sales are significantly higher in quarter 1 of 2011 compared to quarter 1 of 2010 which shows a positive

trend. The table below shows the total number of vehicle registrations per licensing district. This is a direct

reflection on sales in these areas. Ndwedwe has the least amount of people who own vehicles in the area

(362) and Mapumulo (737), while double that of Ndwedwe, still falls far shy of Stanger which has over 36

000 vehicle registrations. From the table we can see that the registration of vehicles dipped in Quarter 1 but

is on the rise again in Quarter 2. This shows that people have disposable income and reflects a good

economic environment.

Table 10 Quarterly trends in vehicle sales South Africa

Source: NAAMSA Quarterly Review, 1st Quarter

Page | 36


Table 11 Total number of vehicle registrations per licensing district

Source: http://www.enatis.com/newsite/

Total Heavy Load Vehicle (GVM>3500kg,not to draw)

Heavy Load Vehicle (GVM>3500kg,equp to draw)

Light Load Vehicle (GVM 3500kg or less)

Heavy passenger mv (12 or more persons)

Light passenger MV(less than 12 persons)

Minibus Motorcycle/Motortricycle/Quadrucycle

Special Vehicle

Unknown

Mapumulo

Jan 731 9 5 341 8 212 132 7 16 1

Feb 696 7 5 321 7 208 126 7 14 1

March 711 8 5 327 7 216 126 7 14 1

April 736 8 5 344 7 220 126 10 15 1

May 737 9 5 340 9 224 128 7 14 1

Ndwedwe

Jan 354 2 2 165 1 153 19 3 6 3

Feb 354 3 2 167 1 150 19 3 6 3

March 342 4 1 166 1 141 16 3 8 2

April 357 4 3 170 1 147 19 3 8 2

May 362 4 2 168 2 147 27 3 8 1

Stanger

Jan 35 932 1511 1115 9944 140 20 091 751 751 1580 49

Feb 36 099 1497 1104 9960 139 20 248 757 762 1582 50

March 36 319 1480 1107 10 051 144 20 385 772 758 1573 49

April 36 313 1471 1092 10 024 137 20 465 742 750 1581 51

May 36 389 1465 1092 10 046 136 20 499 764 761 1576 50

http://www.enatis.com/newsite/

Graph 22 Total Airport Passenger Movements

Source: KZN Treasury statistics for KZN (June 2011)

King Shaka International Airport is situated just south of iLembe DM. It would transport a large amount of

visitors to iLembe and is a good indication of general economic activity in the area. 388,550 Passengers

move through King Shaka International Airport monthly on average, in comparison to 1,515,452 passengers

monthly at OR Tambo and 663,674 passengers monthly at Cape Town International. While it is the smallest

of the international airports in terms of passenger movements it is experiencing the highest monthly

average growth rate of 0.66%. Quarter 2 has seen an increase average monthly passenger movement from

399,209 in quarter 1 to 414,446 passengers in quarter 2.

Graph 23 Port movements for Durban and Richards Bay

Source: KZN Treasury statistics for KZN (June 2011) *information for June not available

Graph 21 shows the port movements for Durban and Richards Bay as a percentage contribution to total

South African port movements. As evident on the graph, Richards Bay and Durban contribute approximately

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

Q22009

Q32009

Q42009

Q12010

Q22010

Q32010

Q42010

Q12011

Q22011

King Shaka International Airport

OR Tambo International Airport

Cape Town International Airport

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

40.00%

45.00%

50.00%

Total Cargo Handled (metrictonnes)

Total Number of Vessels Gross Tonnage of Vessels

Richards Bay

Durban

Page | 38


60% of all port movements in South Africa. This is economically significant for iLembe because iLembe is

situated between these two ports (although neither fall within the borders) and therefore, the activity of

these two ports is a good gage of economic activity in the area in general.

Numbers have remained constant over the last two years over all indicators and both ports (including South

Africa in total).

Table 12 Port movements for Quarter 1 and Quarter 2

Total Cargo Handled per month (metric tonnes)

Total Number of Vessels per month

Gross Tonnage of Vessels per month

Richards Bay Q1 6,857,050 142 5,204,828

Richards Bay Q2 6,372,525 130 4,594,865

Durban Q1 3,517,111 334 10,519,174

Durban Q2 3,395,812 345 10,657,032

South Africa Q1 16,904,680 745 25,720,196

South Africa Q2 16,457,201 761 26,364,038

Source: KZN Treasury statistics for KZN (June 2011) *information for June not available

Table 8 shows the average monthly figures for Quarter 1 in comparison to the average monthly figures in

Quarter 2. The figures in red show a decrease from quarter 1 to quarter 2 and the figures in green show an

increase. Richards Bay has experienced a decline in port movements this quarter across the board. All

ports have shown a decrease in the Total Cargo Handled this quarter. Durban moved 11 more vessels this

quarter than last quarter.

Page | 39


Graph 24 FNB House Price Index – Real and Nominal growth as of June 2011

Source: FNB Property Barometer, June 2011

The FNB House Price Index for June shows a slight increase to 2.6% in year-on-year growth which is

thought to be due to the last interest rate reduction in November 2010. However, real house prices have

declined year-on-year at a rate of -2.5% which is due to CPI still being much higher than property price

growth.

Graph 25 FNB Average House Price Index


The average house price for

residential property recorded in

June 2011 is R805,795. In real

terms, the average house price

index reached a high of 194.8 in

January 2008 and has retracted to

a much lower 165.2 in May 2011.

Therefore, the average house price

index is 15% lower than it was

three years ago.

Page | 40


Graph 26 FNB valuers residential market strength index


Graph 27 Activity level by income for Quarter 2 2011

Source: FNB Property Barometer, Estate Agent Survey Segment, Quarter 2

The activity level is determined by surveying a selection of Real Estate Agents who are asked to put the area

they survey into the following income brackets: High net worth (average price 2.68m), Upper Income

(average price 1.8m), Middle income (average price 1.21m) and Lower Income (average price 599,000).

They are then asked to rate demand for their area out of 10. All four segments are down this quarter with

high net worth agents being less optimistic than the other three while lower income agents are most positive

about demand in their area.

FNB valuers residential market

strength index shows a slight

improvement in market balance as

of June 2011 but overall the index

still shows a heavily unbalanced

market in favour of supply. This

explains the decline in real prices

and dampens expectations of

house price index growth in the

near future.

Page | 41


2.5 International Trade

International trade statistics provide an indication of how well the district municipality has fared in

comparison to other districts within the province in terms of exports, as well as an assessment of the specific

items exported by the district.

Table 9 displays the percentage growth in exports from 2000 – 2010 for each district, as well as the

percentage contribution of that district to total provincial exports in the second quarter 2011.

Key Findings:

‘Manufacturing’ accounted for over 28% of total GGP in iLembe, with ‘finance, insurance, real

estate, and business services’ accounting 21%, and ‘wholesale, retail, catering and

accommodation’ accounting for just over 15%.

63.4% of total income is remuneration, while the remaining 36.6% is unearned, government

grants.

‘Durable goods’ contribute 10.6% to total expenditure, while ‘semi-durable goods’ contribute

13.8%, ‘non-durable goods’ contribute 34.7%, and ‘services’ contribute 41%;

‘Clothing and footwear’, ‘food, beverages and tobacco’, ‘rent’, ‘medical services’, and ‘transport

and communications’ are the largest expenditure categories within the district;

Over 81% of domestic fixed investment was into ‘building and construction’ and ‘machinery and

other equipment; and

The majority of fixed investment was into the ‘Manufacturing’, transport, storage and

communications’, and finance, insurance, real estate, and business services’ sectors.

The location quotient for iLembe is less than 1 for all industries except Agriculture and

Manufacturing which shows that these are areas of comparative advantage.

The shift-share analysis for iLembe further exacerbates that iLembe enjoys a comparative

advantage in Agriculture and Manufacturing.

Car sales throughout South Africa are on average 25% higher in quarter 1 2011 than in Quarter 1

2010. Vehicle registration are growing again as of Quarter 2 2011 after have decreased in

Quarter 1.

388,550 Passengers move through King Shaka International Airport monthly on average, at a

0.66% average monthly growth rate.

Richards Bay and Durban contribute approximately 60% of all port movements in South Africa.

The total amount of cargo handled this quarter has declined across ports in comparison with last

quarter.

Real house prices are relatively low and markets have excess supply which is keeping the

downward prices on houses. Estate agents surveyed suggest that demand is higher in low

income brackets.

Page | 42


Table 13 Total Exports per District Municipality

Percentage Growth (2000 - 2010)

Percentage contribution of total provincial exports (Q2 2011)

Ugu District municipality 10.67% 0.22%

UMgungundlovu District municipality 10.63% 10.49%

Uthukela District municipality 18.02% 0.94%

Umzinyathi District municipality 24.57% 0.58%

Amajuba District municipality 9.41% 1.23%

Zululand District municipality 40.04% 0.04%

Umkhanyakude District municipality 45.51% 0.04%

Uthungulu District municipality 13.90% 39.76%

iLembe District municipality 3.25% 0.26%

Sisonke District municipality 95.78% 0.06%

eThekwini Metropolitan Municipality 4.10% 46.38%

Source: Urban-Econ Estimates based on Quantec’s National Trade Indicators (2011)

iLembe only contributed 0.26% to total provincial exports in the province. Exports originating from iLembe

had grown fairly rapidly between 2000 – 2009 with an average annual growth rate of 8.76%. This indicates

the potential of the district to take advantage of export-oriented opportunities, especially since the inception

of the King Shaka International Airport and Dube Tradeport and the agricultural and manufacturing potential

of the district. However, exports declined quite dramatically in 2010 from R581 million to R167 million

which reduced the average annual growth rate to figures similar to those experienced up to 2006.

Table 10 shows the percentage growth in exports per HS coded export item in iLembe along with the

percentage contribution of each item to the total exports in Quarter 2, 2011.

Table 14 Percentage Growth and Contribution of each HS Coded Export Item in iLembe

HS Code Percentage Growth (2000 - 2010)

Percentage contribution (Q2 2011)

Live animals, animal products 2.6% 0.64%

Vegetable products -20.7% 1.35%

Animal or vegetable fats & oils & their cleavage products; prepared edible fats; animal & vegetable waxes 11.6% 0.14%

Prepared foodstuffs; beverages, spirits & vinegar; tobacco & manufactured tobacco substitutes 22.7% 3.92%

Mineral products 23.1% 2.73%

Products of the chemical or allied industries -24.7% 0.24%

Plastics & articles thereof; rubber & articles thereof 10.3% 11.34%

Raw hides & skins, leather, furskins & articles thereof; saddlery & harness; travel goods, handbags & similar containers; articles of animal gut (other than silkworm gut) 14.8% 0.05%

Wood & articles of wood; wood charcoal; cork & articles of cork; manufactures of straw, of esparto or of other plaiting materials; basketware & wickerwork -6.6% 0.39%

Pulp of wood or of other fibrous cellulosic material; waste & scrap of paper or paperboard; paper & paperboard of paper or paperboard; paper & paperboard & articles thereof 4.2% 8.09%

Textiles & textile articles -6.1% 1.62%

Footwear, headgear, umbrellas, sun umbrellas, walking-sticks, seat-sticks, whips, riding-crops & parts thereof; prepared feathers & articles made therewith; artificial flowers; articles of human hair 70.4% 1.34%

Articles of stone, plaster, cement, asbestos, mica or similar materials; ceramic products; glass & glassware -18.1% 0.26%

Natural or cultured pearls, precious or semi-precious stones, precious metals, metals clad with

Page | 43




precious metal & articles thereof; imitation jewellery; coin

Base metals & articles of base metal 10.0% 22.99%

Machinery & mechanical appliances; electrical equipment; parts thereof; sound recorders an reproducers, television image & sound recorders & reproducers, & parts & accessories of such articles 2.1% 7.93%

Vehicles, aircraft, vessels & associated transport equipment 9.6% 34.32%

Optical, photographic, cinematographic, measuring, checking, precision, medical or surgical instruments & apparatus; clocks & watches; musical instruments; parts & accessories thereof 4.0% 0.11%

Arms & ammunition; parts & accessories thereof Miscellaneous manufactured articles 15.6% 2.54%

Works of art, collectors' pieces & antiques -42.8% 0.00%

Other unclassified goods

Special classification of original equipment components/parts for motor vehicles


The most significant exports that originated from iLembe were ‘vehicles, aircraft, vessels and associated

transport equipment’ which contributed 34% in the second quarter of 2011, as well ‘base metals and articles

of base metal’ with 23% of total exports, and ‘Plastics & articles thereof, rubber &articles thereof’ with

(11%). The ‘Footwear, headgear, umbrellas, sun umbrellas, walking-sticks...etc’ sector experienced a very

large average annual growth rate over the period 2002 – 2010 of over 70%, with the mineral products

category experiencing 23% average annual growth in exports; and exports of ‘prepared foodstuffs,

beverages, spirits & vinegar, tobacco & manufactured tobacco substitutes’ growing at an average annual

growth rate of 22.7%. Noticeably, ‘products of chemical or allied industries’ and ‘vegetable products’ have

experienced a negative growth rate of 25% and 21% respectively. These were large export sectors,

particularly ‘products of chemical or allied industries’, and their decline is largely to blame for the total drop

in exports in iLembe over the last year.

Table 11 shows the contribution of each District Municipality to the total imports for KwaZulu-Natal and each

Municipality’s average annual growth in total imports from 2000-2010.

Table 15 Total imports per District Municipality


Percentage contribution of total provincial imports (Q2 2011)

Ugu District municipality 16.14% 0.73%

UMgungundlovu District municipality 14.99% 8.06%

Uthukela District municipality 13.13% 1.46%

Umzinyathi District municipality 3.92% 0.07%

Amajuba District municipality -0.21% 0.22%

Zululand District municipality 10.66% 0.03%

Umkhanyakude District municipality -18.60% 0.00%

Uthungulu District municipality 13.62% 9.47%

iLembe District municipality 13.43% 1.59%

Page | 44



Percentage contribution of total provincial imports (Q2 2011)

Sisonke District municipality 24.32% 0.01%

eThekwini Metropolitan Municipality 15.26% 78.35%


iLembe contributed 1.59% to total imports in Quarter 2. This makes iLembe the 4th largest contributor

which is interesting considering it is the smallest District Municipality. Imports for iLembe are also growing

steadily at 13.43% per year on average. Table below provides further detail on this trend. It shows the

breakdown of imports within iLembe by HS coded item.

Table 16 Growth and Contribution of each HS Coded Import Item in iLembe



Live animals, animal products -8.8% 0.00%

Vegetable products 4.5% 6.93%

Animal or vegetable fats & oils & their cleavage products; prepared edible fats; animal & vegetable waxes

51.2% 2.00%

Prepared foodstuffs; beverages, spirits & vinegar; tobacco & manufactured tobacco substitutes 26.3% 0.53%

Mineral products -13.6% 0.16%

Products of the chemical or allied industries -0.6% 1.34%

Plastics & articles thereof; rubber & articles thereof 11.3% 6.98%

Raw hides & skins, leather, furskins & articles thereof; saddlery & harness; travel goods, handbags & similar containers; articles of animal gut (other than silkworm gut)

6.0% 0.22%

Wood & articles of wood; wood charcoal; cork & articles of cork; manufactures of straw, of esparto or of other plaiting materials; basketware & wickerwork

10.1% 0.82%

Pulp of wood or of other fibrous cellulosic material; waste & scrap of paper or paperboard; paper & paperboard of paper or paperboard; paper & paperboard & articles thereof

3.2% 2.42%

Textiles & textile articles 37.8% 25.43%

Footwear, headgear, umbrellas, sun umbrellas, walking-sticks, seat-sticks, whips, riding-crops & parts thereof; prepared feathers & articles made therewith; artificial flowers; articles of human hair

35.4% 0.46%

Articles of stone, plaster, cement, asbestos, mica or similar materials; ceramic products; glass & glassware

-4.9% 0.20%

Natural or cultured pearls, precious or semi-precious stones, precious metals, metals clad with precious metal & articles thereof; imitation jewellery; coin

-20.2% 0.00%

Base metals & articles of base metal 22.2% 8.33%

Machinery & mechanical appliances; electrical equipment; parts thereof; sound recorders an reproducers, television image & sound recorders & reproducers, & parts & accessories of such articles

11.9% 34.68%

Vehicles, aircraft, vessels & associated transport equipment 67.5% 1.34%

Optical, photographic, cinematographic, measuring, checking, precision, medical or surgical instruments & apparatus; clocks & watches; musical instruments; parts & accessories thereof

13.9% 2.10%

Arms & ammunition; parts & accessories thereof

Miscellaneous manufactured articles 49.3% 6.05%

Works of art, collectors' pieces & antiques -12.2% 0.00%

Other unclassified goods 0 0

Page | 45


Special classification of original equipment components/parts for motor vehicles 0 0


iLembe mostly imports items within the ‘Machinery & mechanical appliances; electrical equipment and parts

thereof’ section (34.7% contribution) and the ‘textiles’ section (25.4% contribution). Imports within these

two categories are also growing steadily at 11.9% and 37.8% respectively. There is perhaps potential here

for import substitution, or to encourage the purchase of local produce within these categories. The highest

growing categories are the ‘vehicles, aircraft, vessels & associated transport equipment’ category at 67.5%

and the ‘animal & vegetable fats and oils and their cleavage products’ category at 51.2%.

Table 17 Gross Geographic Expenditure

Gross Geographic Expenditure (2010) = total exports (2010) – total imports (2010)

R167,494,901- R1,115,186,789

-R947,691,888

Gross Geographic Expenditure (2nd

Quarter) = total exports (2nd

Quarter) – total imports (2nd

Quarter)

R43,235,886 - R316,240,363

-R273,004,476


Table 13 gives a summary of trade in iLembe. In 2010 iLembe experienced a deficit of R947,691,888 and in

Quarter 2 of 2011 a deficit of R273,004,476. Although these figures should be treated with caution as they

are only approximates, these are large deficits and suggest iLembe’s imports far outweigh their exports.

Investment should be steered towards boosting local produce for export and encouraging purchasers to buy

local produce in order to encourage import substitution.

Key Findings:

Products that originate from iLembe contribute 0.26% to total provincial exports;

Growth in iLembe exports has been 3.25% per annum between 2000 – 2010 but has declined

dramatically over the last year;

The most significant exports that originated from iLembe were ‘vehicles, aircraft, vessels and

associated transport equipment’ which contributed 34% in the second quarter of 2011

iLembe contributed 1.59% to total imports in Quarter 2 and Imports for iLembe are growing

steadily at 13.43% per year on average;

iLembe mostly imports items within the ‘Machinery& mechanical appliances; electrical equipment

and parts thereof’ section (34.7% contribution) and the ‘textiles’ section (25.4% contribution);

In 2010 iLembe experienced a deficit of R947,691,888 and in Quarter 2 of 2011 a deficit of

R273,004,476;

Page | 46


2.6 Tourism

Table 18 Overview of KZN tourism market 2009

Foreign Visitors Domestic Visitors

Number of Visitors Annually 1.213 million 8.8 million trips

Average Spend per Visitor R7 215 spend R720 per trip

Total Market Value R8.75 billion R6.34 billion

Average Length of Stay 6.5 nights 4.3 nights

Main Source Markets UK, USA, France, Germany, Netherlands

KZN, Gauteng

Source: SAT 2010

Graph 28 Destinations visited in KZN 2009 (percentage contribution)

Source: SAT 2010

From the above graph it is clear that Durban Metro, the North Coast and Elephant Coast attract a higher

proportion of overseas visitors than domestic visitors. These areas will all impact on the tourism market of

iLembe due to their close proximity. There is an opportunity to harness the benefits of these overseas

visitors whose expenditure, length of stay and market value are all higher than domestic tourists (as we can

see from table 18 above). The North Coast and Elephant coast could do more to attract domestic visitors,

as they are amongst the bottom three destinations visited by domestic visitors.

2.7 Business Confidence

The business confidence index is not available on a provincial or local level currently and therefore the report

will make use of the national index as an indication of confidence in the entire private sector. The report has

used two indexes, one produced by SACCI based on market data and one produced by BER/RMB based on

survey data. Both together give a good idea of business confidence in South Africa. On both indices it is

clear that business confidence has declined on average from 2005 to 2010. The drop in confidence over the

period 2008 – 2010 reflects the uncertainty of business during the global economic downturn.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Overseas and African AirDepartures

Domestic Tourists

Page | 47


Table 19 SACCI BCI Quarter 2 (2011)

Source: South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry – Business Confidence Index (June 2011)

While business confidence was up in the first quarter, it has decreased in the second quarter from 88.3 to

86.8 and BCI is only two points higher in June 2011 as compared to June 2010 (84.8) which shows that

while business confidence is returning, it is not nearly as positive as we would hope.

Graph 29 BER/RMB Business Confidence Index Quarter 2

Source: Bureau for Economic Research (BER) and Rand Merchant Bank (RMB) press release June 7 2011

The BER/RMB business confidence index has also shown a decline in confidence from 55 in quarter one to 48

in quarter two. A figure of 48 means that around half the surveyed participants are dissatisfied and around

Page | 48


half are satisfied with prevailing business conditions. Similarly to the SACCi index, this quarter 2 figure is

higher than that of quarter 2 last year.

Table 20 Percentage change of economic activity per sector in KZN over the last year, month and quarter

Source: Trade and Investment KZN ‘The Business Barometer for the Province of KwaZulu-Natal’, April 2011

The Business Barometer for KZN, developed by Mike Schussler from Economists.com, represents the level of

economic activity within each sector in KZN. What follows is a brief summary of his report. KwaZulu-Natal

has been one of the best performers in economic growth over the last year, growing by 10.8% as of April

2011. Despite this, most sectors are still not at the same level as they were 3years ago showing that a full

recovery after the global economic crisis has still not been made.

The construction sector grew at 20.6% last quarter, KZN is the only province showing positive

growth in this sector.

Both the mining and electricity sectors are showing a negative yearly growth trend. Electricity rates

could be causing a lack of demand which in turn is affecting the strength of the mining industry.

The manufacturing sector is the single biggest contributor to the KZN economy and is showing good

consistent growth. The textile, clothing, leather and footwear sector has, however, been declining

month on month over the last year. This decline is being offset by strong growth in other sectors,

particularly the motor vehicles part and accessories sector.

Although the Finance, Real Estate and Business Services index is still down on three years ago, it is

showing a high yearly growth of 15.6%.

Largely driven by high growth in communications, the Transport and Communications sector is

showing a record growth of 19%.

Agriculture showed a decrease in the first quarter largely due to weather conditions.

Government spending is showing a large year on year growth of 15.4%. The monthly decline should

be viewed with caution due to year end being in March, although it does seem government spending

Page | 49


is slowing which could indicate a positive trend the KZN economy is not so dependent on

government spending.

The stress index is measured by the negative factors in the economy such as inflation, interest rates and

unemployment. Despite all other factors being relatively good in KZN, the stress index still declined by

1.1% in the first quarter due to very high and growing unemployment figures.

Economic Risk

Risk is calculated using 8 major economic indicators (such as interest rates and inflation rates) factored in

with each region’s unique economic sector weights. A region is more at risk to negative changes in the

major economic indicators if the economy is heavily reliant on certain sectors only. Therefore, risk is a

reflection of the economic environment. If the economic environment is improved, economic risk is

decreased. The following table describes the contributing factors (variables) to gauging the strength of the

economic environment, and hence, economic risk.

Table 21 Implications of a change in the economic risk/conditions variables


Table below shows the monthly economic risk for the province, main places within the province and iLembe.

The table shows that risk in the province (-3.9) and iLembe (-3.2) is low and has been decreasing since the

beginning of the year. ‘The monitor also suggests that the behaviour of the included economic variables and

the structure of the provincial and regional economies are supportive of economic growth’. (Clive Coetzee,

KZN Treasury)

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Table 22 Economic Risk Monitor


2.8 Enterprise iLembe Business Expansion & Retention Survey

The B,E&R survey was run by Enterprise iLembe in partnership with the iLembe Chamber of Commerce,

Industry and Tourism over June and July this year in Ballito. Funding was provided by the Industrial

Development Corporation (IDC). The survey’s intention was to capture what it is like to be in business in

the Ballito area and record ideas, concerns, priorities and obstacles to economic growth. Only a selection of

the report has been reproduced here.

61 businesses were surveyed, majority were in the Business Park area.

Businesses surveyed covered a variety of activities; over 25% are in the finance, insurance, property

or business services, 23% are in wholesale retail or motor trade while construction and building

formed nearly 20% of the total.

Almost all businesses are locally owned.

36% of businesses have been operating for 1-5 years, 31% for 6-10 years, 21% longer than

10years and 12% less than one year.

Local customers are the main source of sales (41%), 31% focus on KZN, while 28% do business

throughout South Africa. None see international customers as their primary target.

Key Findings:

Business confidence has decreased in the second quarter of 2011

Economic risk in the province (-3.9) and iLembe (-3.2) is low and has been decreasing since the

beginning of the year.

Table 21 indicates the following:

Positive numbers: High or

Increasing risk

Zero: Neutral Risk

Negative numbers: Low or

Decreasing risk

Page | 51


60% purchase the bulk of their supplies from within KZN and 22% from other parts of South Africa.

Relatively few (17%) can find supplies locally.

Majority of business (46%) have increased staff numbers of the last two years and plan to increase

staff numbers over the next two years (64%). A large majority of the skills in demand are sales and

marketing skills; as well as business and financial management skills.

The following graph describes the advantages and disadvantages to locating business in Ballito (advantages

in blue and disadvantages in purple).

Graph 30 Advantages and disadvantages to locating business in Ballito

Source: iLembe B,E&R Programme, Results of the Ballito Business Survey, July 2011

Majority of business owners (74%) see quality of life as a key advantage to doing business in Ballito. Other

advantages include the image of the area (67%), access to customers (51%) and the local market(41%).

The most frequently mentioned disadvantage was the unreliability of electricity supply (49%). Other

disadvantages include the lack of municipal support (43%), poor public transport (41%) and expensive rates

and services (38%).

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Graph 31 Sales over two years

Source: iLembe B,E&R Programme, Results of the Ballito Busness Survey, July 2011

The graph shows that 63% of businesses say that sales have increased over the last two years. 85% expect

sales to increase which shows that business confidence in Ballito is good. 80% of businesses have not

considered selling, moving or closing in the last two years which also shows high business confidence.

Business opportunities lie in the fact that there are products in demand locally that are not produced locally

such as electrical repairs, quality furniture, IT and computer maintenance, the services of mechanical

engineering workshops, packaging, panel beaters, power tools, printing including size A0, general motor

vehicle spares, speciality food, wholesale dry goods as well as bakery and supermarket supplies.

The following products and services are not purchased locally for price reasons: wholesale cement, cool-

drinks, chocolate, dairy products, fish and meat, paper and stationary.

When asked what new businesses would succeed in Ballito, suggestions included: artists, authors, electronic

traders, cinema, gym, laundry, printers, security equipment supplier and an arts and crafts heritage market

in Umhlali, as well as businesses relating to above mentioned products. Restaurants and fast food outlets

were mentioned several times.

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Graph 32 Main constraints to expansion

Source: iLembe B,E&R Programme, Results of the Ballito Busness Survey, July 2011

43% of businesses consider the small size of the local market the main constraint to expansion. Other

constraints include availability of finance (32%), too much competition and problems relating to the

municipality (28%). These largely included the poor supply of electricity.

SECTION 3 CONCLUSION

3.1 Key Findings

This sub-section pulls together the key findings from each of the previous sub-sections in order to provide a

composite understanding of the current social and economic situation in iLembe.

Demographic

Out-migration of residents from Ndwedwe and Maphumulo to more urban-areas such as KwaDukuza

and Mandeni;

iLembe has experienced a decline in HIV prevalence of 0.75% per quarter or 3% per annum;

Socio-Economic

Ndwedwe and Maphumulo are lagging behind the district with regards access to electricity;

Less than 30% of the district population have access to a flush or chemical toilet;

Less than 17% of households have access to water inside their dwelling;

Only 9% of the district population live in informal settlements;

Employment, Education and Skills

Over 60% of the district population fall within the working age bracket (16 – 65 years);

Only 28% of the working age population are employed in iLembe, with over 63% being not

economically-active;

22% of the working-age population are informally employed;

‘Manufacturing’; ‘wholesale and retail, catering and accommodation’; ‘finance, insurance, real estate

and business services’; and ‘community, social and personal services’ contribute almost 70% to

those formally employed;

Almost 14% of the district population have no schooling, while less than 10% of the population

received a Grade 12;

Economic Activity

‘Manufacturing’ accounted for over 28% of total GGP in iLembe, with ‘finance, insurance, real estate,

and business services’ accounting 21%, and ‘wholesale, retail, catering and accommodation’

accounting for just over 15%.

63.4% of total income is remuneration, while the remaining 36.6% is unearned, government grants.

‘Durable goods’ contribute 10.6% to total expenditure, while ‘semi-durable goods’ contribute 13.8%,

‘non-durable goods’ contribute 34.7%, and ‘services’ contribute 41%;

‘Clothing and footwear’, ‘food, beverages and tobacco’, ‘rent’, ‘medical services’, and ‘transport and

communications’ are the largest expenditure categories within the district;

Over 81% of domestic fixed investment was into ‘building and construction’ and ‘machinery and

other equipment; and

Page | 55


The majority of fixed investment was into the ‘Manufacturing’, transport, storage and

communications’, and finance, insurance, real estate, and business services’ sectors.

The location quotient for iLembe is less than 1 for all industries except Agriculture and Manufacturing

which shows that these are areas of comparative advantage.

The shift-share analysis for iLembe further exacerbates that iLembe enjoys a comparative advantage

in Agriculture and Manufacturing.

Car sales throughout South Africa are on average 25% higher in quarter 1 2011 than in Quarter 1

2010. Vehicle registration are growing again as of Quarter 2 2011 after have decreased in Quarter

1.

388,550 Passengers move through King Shaka International Airport monthly on average, at a 0.66%

average monthly growth rate.

Richards Bay and Durban contribute approximately 60% of all port movements in South Africa. The

total amount of cargo handled this quarter has declined across ports in comparison with last quarter.

Real house prices are relatively low and markets have excess supply which is keeping the downward

prices on houses. Estate agents surveyed suggest that demand is higher in low income brackets.

International Trade

Products that originate from iLembe contribute 0.26% to total provincial exports;

Growth in iLembe exports has been 3.25% per annum between 2000 – 2010 but has declined

dramatically over the last year;

The most significant exports that originated from iLembe were ‘vehicles, aircraft, vessels and

associated transport equipment’ which contributed 34% in the second quarter of 2011

iLembe contributed 1.59% to total imports in Quarter 2 and Imports for iLembe are growing steadily

at 13.43% per year on average;

iLembe mostly imports items within the ‘Machinery& mechanical appliances; electrical equipment

and parts thereof’ section (34.7% contribution) and the ‘textiles’ section (25.4% contribution);

In 2010 iLembe experienced a deficit of R947,691,888 and in Quarter 2 of 2011 a deficit of

R273,004,476;

Tourism

By far the highest proportion of domestic and overseas visitors choose Durban Metro as their main

destination. The Elephant Coast also attracts a lot of overseas visitors while the Drakensberg

attracts a large proportion of domestic visitors.

Most domestic tourists come from within KZN and Gauteng, while overseas tourists mainly come

from the UK and USA.

Business Confidence

Business confidence has decreased in the second quarter of 2011.

Economic Risk is low and declining in iLembe and the province.

Page | 56


ANNEXURE ASSUMPTIONS AND COMPREHENSIVE ECONOMIC

INDICATORS

The following assumptions were used during this report:

The most recent available data down to a local municipal level ends in 2009 or 2010. This report

therefore assumes that the base year is 2009/2010 (depending in the indicator).

In order to determine 2010, 2011 and quarterlydata, the average annual growth rate of each

dataset was calculated between either 2000 – 2009 or 2000 – 2010.

Data was then extrapolated to 2011 using the above mentioned average annual growth rates, and to

each of the quarters of 2011 by using an average quarterly growth rate (annual growth rate divided

by 4 quarters).

Most data is quoted as a percentage of the total in order to easily compare across varying nominal

values for the province, district and local municipalities.

For absolute values used within the analysis, in order to determine the quarterly value, the

extrapolated 2011 value was divided by 4.

The tables below display both the nominal and percentage contribution values for each of the indicators

presented in the report.

A1.1 Population and Households

Population Households

Number % growth Number % growth

iLembe 563,073 0.09% 134,723 0.67%

Mandeni Local Municipality 131,874 0.46% 36,802 1.74%

KwaDukuza Local Municipality 172,944 1.11% 47,035 1.12%

Ndwedwe Local Municipality 143,941 -0.87% 29,484 -0.40%

Maphumulo Local Municipality 114,418 -0.48% 21,433 -0.40%

A1.2 Racial Profile

Number iLembe Mandeni Local Municipality




Black 509,485 123,436 130,581 141,347 114,260

Coloured 2,577 874 1,476 159 71

Asian 38,928 5,769 31,701 1,457 52

White 12,083 1,850 9,226 1,000 35

Total 563,073 131,929 172,984 143,963 114,418

Percentage Contribution

iLembe Mandeni Local Municipality




Black 90.5% 93.6% 75.5% 98.2% 99.9%

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Coloured 0.5% 0.7% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1%

Asian 6.9% 4.4% 18.3% 1.0% 0.0%

White 2.1% 1.4% 5.3% 0.7% 0.0%

A1.3 HIV and AIDS





Population 562,558 131,269 171,038 145,202 114,969

HIV Positive 93,273 24,999 26,911 24,563 16,795

AIDS Deaths 6,884 1,813 1,944 1,842 1,284

Percentage Contribution iLembe Mandeni Local Municipality




HIV Positive 16.6% 19.0% 15.7% 16.9% 14.6%

AIDS Deaths 1.2% 1.4% 1.1% 1.3% 1.1%

A1.4 Gender Profile





Male 272,528 62,575 85,768 72,984 51,229

Female 290,551 69,299 87,175 70,973 63,189

Total 563,080 131,873 172,943 143,956 114,418





Male 48.4% 47.5% 49.6% 50.7% 44.8%

Female 51.6% 52.5% 50.4% 49.3% 55.2%

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A1.5 Age Profile





00-04 Year(s) 59,687 13,011 17,809 14,736 14,398

05-09 Year(s) 61,657 13,237 17,495 16,219 14,983

10-14 Year(s) 63,861 14,393 15,079 17,392 17,146

15-19 Year(s) 65,298 14,307 17,453 17,987 15,590

20-24 Year(s) 59,937 15,016 20,185 14,567 10,164

25-29 Year(s) 53,780 14,970 17,117 13,703 7,916

30-34 Year(s) 44,295 12,924 15,819 9,741 5,744

35-39 Year(s) 33,605 9,274 11,431 7,789 5,067

40-44 Year(s) 22,673 5,645 8,216 5,521 3,316

45-49 Year(s) 21,324 4,410 8,127 5,542 3,250

50-54 Year(s) 19,750 4,011 6,364 5,363 3,997

55-59 Year(s) 17,449 3,625 5,653 4,064 4,097

60-64 Year(s) 14,325 2,834 5,067 3,800 2,631

65-69 Year(s) 10,122 2,014 2,715 3,100 2,278

70-74 Year(s) 7,989 1,109 1,986 2,643 2,211

75-79 Year(s) 4,453 859 1,236 1,247 1,097

80+ Year(s) 3,270 360 1,250 927 715

Total 563,474 131,998 173,002 144,343 114,600






00-04 Year(s) 10.6% 9.9% 10.3% 10.2% 12.6%

05-09 Year(s) 10.9% 10.0% 10.1% 11.2% 13.1%

10-14 Year(s) 11.3% 10.9% 8.7% 12.0% 15.0%

15-19 Year(s) 11.6% 10.8% 10.1% 12.5% 13.6%

20-24 Year(s) 10.6% 11.4% 11.7% 10.1% 8.9%

25-29 Year(s) 9.5% 11.3% 9.9% 9.5% 6.9%

30-34 Year(s) 7.9% 9.8% 9.1% 6.7% 5.0%

35-39 Year(s) 6.0% 7.0% 6.6% 5.4% 4.4%

40-44 Year(s) 4.0% 4.3% 4.7% 3.8% 2.9%

45-49 Year(s) 3.8% 3.3% 4.7% 3.8% 2.8%

50-54 Year(s) 3.5% 3.0% 3.7% 3.7% 3.5%

55-59 Year(s) 3.1% 2.7% 3.3% 2.8% 3.6%

60-64 Year(s) 2.5% 2.1% 2.9% 2.6% 2.3%

65-69 Year(s) 1.8% 1.5% 1.6% 2.1% 2.0%

70-74 Year(s) 1.4% 0.8% 1.1% 1.8% 1.9%

75-79 Year(s) 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.9% 1.0%

80+ Year(s) 0.6% 0.3% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6%

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A1.6 Energy used for Lighting





Solar/other/unspecified 2,790 231 351 414 1,842

Electricity 86,107 29,067 40,971 8,376 7,754

Gas 596 190 124 191 94

Paraffin 2,670 508 814 1,137 228

Candles 42,956 6,947 4,905 19,372 11,778

Total 135,118 36,942 47,165 29,490 21,696

Percentage contribution iLembe Mandeni Local Municipality




Solar/other/unspecified 2.1% 0.6% 0.7% 1.4% 8.5%

Electricity 63.7% 78.7% 86.9% 28.4% 35.7%

Gas 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.6% 0.4%

Paraffin 2.0% 1.4% 1.7% 3.9% 1.0%

Candles 31.8% 18.8% 10.4% 65.7% 54.3%

A1.7 Type of Toilet





Flush or chemical toilet 37,048 12,780 18,020 4,676 1,581

Pit latrine 74,053 20,992 20,653 17,205 15,267

Bucket latrine 1,366 203 623 313 237

None of the above 21,284 2,651 7,309 7,108 4,271

Unspecified/Dummy 1,089 295 484 194 117

Total 134,840 36,922 47,090 29,496 21,472

Percentage iLembe Mandeni Local Municipality




Flush or chemical toilet 27.5% 34.6% 38.3% 15.9% 7.4%

Pit latrine 54.9% 56.9% 43.9% 58.3% 71.1%

Bucket latrine 1.0% 0.6% 1.3% 1.1% 1.1%

None of the above 15.8% 7.2% 15.5% 24.1% 19.9%

Unspecified/Dummy 0.8% 0.8% 1.0% 0.7% 0.5%

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A1.8 Water





Piped water inside dwelling 22,846 7,083 13,018 1,551 1,291

Piped water inside yard 29,548 11,132 8,263 8,450 1,852

Piped water on community stand: distance less than 200m. from dwelling

30,466 8,210 16,124 3,488 2,665

Piped water on community stand: distance greater than 200m. from dwell

14,448 4,611 6,204 2,211 1,424

Borehole/rain-water tank/well 8,489 2,823 770 2,686 2,245

Dam/river/stream/spring 27,548 3,064 1,494 10,901 12,118

Water-carrier/tanker/Water vendor

1,023 92 724 162 45

Other/Unspecified/Dummy 1,536 202 883 277 177

Total 135,904 37,216 47,479 29,725 21,817





Piped water inside dwelling 16.8% 19.0% 27.4% 5.2% 5.9%

Piped water inside yard 21.7% 29.9% 17.4% 28.4% 8.5%

Piped water on community stand: distance less than 200m. from dwelling

22.4% 22.1% 34.0% 11.7% 12.2%

Piped water on community stand: distance greater than 200m. from dwell

10.6% 12.4% 13.1% 7.4% 6.5%

Borehole/rain-water tank/well 6.2% 7.6% 1.6% 9.0% 10.3%

Dam/river/stream/spring 20.3% 8.2% 3.1% 36.7% 55.5%

Water-carrier/tanker/Water vendor

0.8% 0.2% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2%

Other/Unspecified/Dummy 1.1% 0.5% 1.9% 0.9% 0.8%

A1.9 Type of Dwelling





House or brick structure on a separate stand or yard

51,527 15,588 23,557 7,714 4,677

Traditional dwelling/hut/structure made of traditional materials

43,102 8,668 4,893 14,681 14,865

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Flat in a block of flats 6,908 2,014 3,785 668 454

Town/cluster/semi-detached house (simplex, duplex or triplex)

1,382 164 904 204 126

House/flat/room, in backyard 2,588 1,205 733 494 156

Informal dwelling/shack, in backyard

2,508 474 1,599 95 371

Informal dwelling/shack, NOT in backyard, e.g. in an informal/squatter settlement

12,590 5,596 5,854 912 294

Room/flatlet not in backyard but on a shared property

2,824 1,875 587 176 257

Other/unspecified/NA 11,493 1,486 5,167 4,601 260

Total 134,922 37,071 47,080 29,545 21,461





House or brick structure on a separate stand or yard

38.19% 42.05% 50.04% 26.11% 21.80%

Traditional dwelling/hut/structure made of traditional materials

31.95% 23.38% 10.39% 49.69% 69.26%

Flat in a block of flats 5.12% 5.43% 8.04% 2.26% 2.12%

Town/cluster/semi-detached house (simplex, duplex or triplex)

1.02% 0.44% 1.92% 0.69% 0.59%

House/flat/room, in backyard 1.92% 3.25% 1.56% 1.67% 0.73%

Informal dwelling/shack, in backyard

1.86% 1.28% 3.40% 0.32% 1.73%

Informal dwelling/shack, NOT in backyard, e.g. in an informal/squatter settlement

9.33% 15.10% 12.43% 3.09% 1.37%

Room/flatlet not in backyard but on a shared property

2.09% 5.06% 1.25% 0.60% 1.20%

Other/unspecified/NA 8.52% 4.01% 10.97% 15.57% 1.21%

A1.10 Education Level





Grade 0/No schooling 78,728 14,257 18,561 23,893 22,026

Grade 1/Sub A 22,462 4,942 6,195 6,253 5,089

Grade 2/Sub B 25,462 5,933 6,216 7,237 6,085

Grade 3/Standard 1 22,594 4,078 5,780 7,367 5,375

Grade 4/Standard 2 24,249 5,247 7,424 6,801 4,786

Grade 5/Standard 3 27,978 6,359 7,459 8,382 5,782

Grade 6/Standard 4 26,518 5,752 8,079 7,326 5,367

Grade 7/Standard 5 31,881 6,451 11,506 7,142 6,803

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Grade 8/Standard 6/Form 1 34,927 8,886 10,347 8,713 6,987

Grade 9/Standard 7/Form 2 37,689 9,370 11,044 10,618 6,661

Grade 10/Standard 8/Form 3/NTC1

37,329 10,177 12,650 9,074 5,433


52,640 16,775 13,041 14,246 8,592

Grade 12/Standard 10/Form 5/Matric/NTC111

51,510 15,247 21,099 7,965 7,215

Less than matric & certif/dip 6,381 1,141 3,196 1,416 643

Certificate with Grade 12 3,205 658 1,341 654 558

Diploma with Grade 12 5,814 777 3,616 828 603

Bachelor's Degree 3,261 260 2,281 527 201

Bachelor's Degree and Diploma 1,908 388 843 249 437

Honours degree 1,000 297 415 208 84

Higher Degree (Master's, Doctorate)

712 74 393 105 148

Other/Unspecified/NA 67,713 14,955 21,254 15,599 15,917

Total 563,960 132,024 172,740 144,602 114,791





Grade 0/No schooling 13.960% 10.8% 10.7% 16.5% 19.2%

Grade 1/Sub A 4.0% 3.7% 3.6% 4.3% 4.4%

Grade 2/Sub B 4.5% 4.5% 3.6% 5.0% 5.3%

Grade 3/Standard 1 4.0% 3.1% 3.3% 5.1% 4.7%

Grade 4/Standard 2 4.3% 4.0% 4.3% 4.7% 4.2%

Grade 5/Standard 3 5.0% 4.8% 4.3% 5.8% 5.0%

Grade 6/Standard 4 4.7% 4.4% 4.7% 5.1% 4.7%

Grade 7/Standard 5 5.7% 4.9% 6.7% 4.9% 5.9%

Grade 8/Standard 6/Form 1 6.2% 6.7% 6.0% 6.0% 6.1%

Grade 9/Standard 7/Form 2 6.7% 7.1% 6.4% 7.3% 5.8%


6.6% 7.7% 7.3% 6.3% 4.7%


9.3% 12.7% 7.5% 9.9% 7.5%

Grade 12/Standard 10/Form 5/Matric/NTC111

9.1% 11.5% 12.2% 5.5% 6.3%

Less than matric & certif/dip 1.1% 0.9% 1.8% 1.0% 0.6%

Certificate with Grade 12 0.6% 0.5% 0.8% 0.5% 0.5%

Diploma with Grade 12 1.0% 0.6% 2.1% 0.6% 0.5%

Bachelor's Degree 0.6% 0.2% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2%

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Bachelor's Degree and Diploma 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.4%

Honours degree 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%

Higher Degree (Master's, Doctorate)

0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%

Other/Unspecified/NA 12.0% 11.3% 12.3% 10.8% 13.9%

A1.11 Employment and Unemployment





Population - Working age (16 - 65 years old)

353,945 87,354 118,472 87,842 62,346

Employed - Formal and informal

98,912 27,847 46,796 16,877 7,585

Unemployed 27,898 10,507 9,003 7,041 1,881

Not economically active 227,135 49,001 62,673 63,924 52,880





Population - Working age (16 - 65 years old)

63.3% 66.6% 68.5% 61.9% 54.9%

Employed - Formal and informal

27.9% 31.9% 39.5% 19.2% 12.2%

Unemployed 7.9% 12.0% 7.6% 8.0% 3.0%

Not economically active 64.2% 56.1% 52.9% 72.8% 84.8%

Percentage iLembe Mandeni Local Municipality




Unemployment Rate (Strict) 22.0% 27.4% 16.1% 29.4% 19.9%

Unemployment Rate (Expanded)

72.05% 68.1% 60.5% 80.8% 87.8%

A1.12 Employment by type and skill level

Number iLembe





Employed - Formal 77,426 21,822 36,141 13,237 6,426

Employed - Informal 21,774 6,202 10,748 3,693 1,154

Employed - Formal - 8,867 2,972 3,726 1,365 827

Page | 64


Number iLembe





Highly skilled

Employed - Formal - Skilled

31,541 10,084 13,813 5,053 2,687

Employed - Formal - Semi- and unskilled

37,018 8,766 18,602 6,819 2,913

Employed Total 99,604 28,011 47,176 16,963 7,524

Percentage Contribution iLembe





Formally Employed 78.14% 77.86% 77.22% 78.23% 84.67%

Informally Employed 21.86% 22.14% 22.78% 21.77% 15.33%

Percentage Contribution iLembe





Highly Skilled 11.5% 13.6% 10.3% 10.3% 12.9%

Skilled 40.7% 46.2% 38.2% 38.2% 41.8%

Semi and Unskilled 47.8% 40.2% 51.5% 51.5% 45.3%

A1.13 Employment by Industry





Agriculture, forestry and fishing 9,071 946 4,471 3,305 402

Mining and quarrying 542 269 189 80 11

Manufacturing 16,714 7,473 7,416 1,606 298

Electricity, gas and water 109 8 35 69 6

Construction 6,520 590 3,838 1,975 221

Wholesale and retail trade, catering and accommodation

22,582 7,643 11,287 3,453 416

Transport, storage and communication

3,307 854 1,209 507 798

Finance, insurance, real estate and business services

14,037 7,526 5,302 1,094 602

Community, social and personal services

17,581 2,537 9,988 2,624 2,527

General government 10,946 1,584 4,178 2,773 2,480

Total 101,408 29,428 47,914 17,486 7,762

Page | 65






Agriculture, forestry and fishing 8.9% 3.2% 9.3% 18.9% 5.2%

Mining and quarrying 0.5% 0.9% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1%

Manufacturing 16.5% 25.4% 15.5% 9.2% 3.8%

Electricity, gas and water 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1%

Construction 6.4% 2.0% 8.0% 11.3% 2.8%


22.3% 26.0% 23.6% 19.7% 5.4%


3.3% 2.9% 2.5% 2.9% 10.3%


13.8% 25.6% 11.1% 6.3% 7.8%


17.3% 8.6% 20.8% 15.0% 32.6%

General government 10.8% 5.4% 8.7% 15.9% 31.9%

A1.14 Gross Geographic Product by Industry

Rand Millions (2nd quarter) iLembe Mandeni Local Municipality




Agriculture, forestry and fishing 252 28 125 88 10

Mining and quarrying 21 10 8 3 0

Manufacturing 760 310 362 74 14

Electricity, gas and water 24 2 9 12 1

Construction 78 8 44 24 2


402 129 208 58 8


191 43 82 25 41


558 269 232 39 18


135 17 65 19 34

General government 250 33 112 56 49

Total 2,672 849 1,247 397 178







Manufacturing 28.5% 36.5% 29.0% 18.7% 7.8%


Page | 66






Construction 2.9% 0.9% 3.5% 6.0% 1.4%


15.1% 15.2% 16.6% 14.6% 4.3%


7.2% 5.0% 6.6% 6.4% 23.2%


20.9% 31.7% 18.6% 9.8% 10.0%


5.1% 2.0% 5.2% 4.7% 19.2%


A1.15 Income and Expenditure

Rand Millions (2nd

quarter)





Total Income 2,344 753 935 373 283

Remuneration 1,487 467 626 227 167

Unearned Income

857 286 309 146 117

Total Expenditure 2,287 736 947 343 261






Total Income 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Remuneration 63.4% 62.0% 67.0% 60.9% 58.8%

Unearned Income

36.6% 38.0% 33.0% 39.1% 41.3%

Total Expenditure 97.58% 97.82% 101.32% 91.79% 92.23%

A1.16 Expenditure by Category

Rand Millions (2nd quarter)





Durable Goods 241 75 99 37 30

Semi-Durable Goods

316 109 115 49 43

Non-Durable Goods

791 264 297 135 95

Services 935 288 432 121 93

Total 2,282 736 943 342 262

Page | 67







Durable Goods 10.6% 10.2% 10.5% 10.7% 11.4%

Semi-Durable Goods

13.8% 14.8% 12.1% 14.3% 16.6%

Non-Durable Goods

34.7% 35.9% 31.5% 39.5% 36.5%

Services 41.0% 39.2% 45.8% 35.5% 35.6%

A1.17 Expenditure by sub-category

Rand Millions (2nd quarter) iLembe Mandeni Local Municipality




Durable Goods

Furniture, household appliances, etc

56 18 20 9 8

Personal transport equipment

108 33 43 18 14

Recreational and entertainment goods

60 18 30 7 5

Other durable goods 17 5 7 3 2

Semi-Durable

Clothing and footwear 204 73 68 33 30

Household textiles, furnishings, glassware, etc

46 16 16 8 7

Motor car tyres, parts and accessories

29 9 12 5 4


25 7 13 3 2

Miscellaneous goods 11 3 6 1 1

Non-Durable

Food, beverages and tobacco

526 176 200 89 61

Household fuel and power 69 25 18 14 11

Household consumer goods 109 38 41 17 13

Medical and pharmaceutical products

30 8 15 4 3

Petroleum products 58 18 22 11 8

Services

Rent 214 63 113 24 14

Household services, including domestic servants

57 18 24 9 6

Medical services 157 50 71 20 17

Transport and communication services

216 67 103 25 21

Recreational, entertainment and educational services

97 32 39 14 13

Miscellaneous services 194 58 83 29 23

Page | 68






Durable Goods

Furniture, household appliances, etc

2.46% 2.51% 2.13% 2.74% 3.12%

Personal transport equipment

4.73% 4.55% 4.52% 5.23% 5.33%


2.63% 2.44% 3.16% 1.98% 2.08%

Other durable goods 0.74% 0.71% 0.71% 0.80% 0.84%

Semi-Durable

Clothing and footwear 8.94% 9.92% 7.19% 9.65% 11.60%

Household textiles, furnishings, glassware, etc

2.01% 2.13% 1.70% 2.24% 2.54%

Motor car tyres, parts and accessories

1.28% 1.26% 1.23% 1.38% 1.41%


1.12% 1.01% 1.39% 0.84% 0.79%

Miscellaneous goods 0.47% 0.44% 0.65% 0.22% 0.25%

Non-Durable

Food, beverages and tobacco

23.06% 23.85% 21.26% 26.04% 23.45%

Household fuel and power 3.00% 3.46% 1.96% 4.13% 4.01%

Household consumer goods 4.76% 5.10% 4.36% 4.93% 5.03%

Medical and pharmaceutical products

1.30% 1.04% 1.63% 1.18% 1.02%

Petroleum products 2.53% 2.41% 2.29% 3.16% 2.94%

Services

Rent 9.36% 8.59% 11.95% 6.97% 5.30%

Household services, including domestic servants

2.49% 2.49% 2.51% 2.51% 2.37%

Medical services 6.89% 6.80% 7.50% 5.84% 6.31%

Transport and communication services

9.46% 9.11% 10.93% 7.39% 7.90%

Recreational, entertainment and educational services

4.27% 4.31% 4.12% 4.18% 4.79%

Miscellaneous services 8.49% 7.86% 8.82% 8.58% 8.91%

A1.18 Domestic Fixed Capital Investment by Investment Type

Rand Millions (2ndst

quarter)





Buildings and construction works

146 36 70 30 10

Machinery and other equipment

213 72 103 29 10

Transport equipment 76 21 35 11 10

Transfer costs 7 5 2 1 0

Total 443 133 209 71 29

Page | 69






Buildings and construction works

33.0% 26.9% 33.5% 42.9% 32.7%

Machinery and other equipment

48.2% 54.1% 49.1% 40.3% 34.2%

Transport equipment 17.2% 15.5% 16.5% 16.0% 32.5%

Transfer costs 1.7% 3.5% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7%

A1.19 Domestic Fixed Capital Investment by Industry

Rand Millions (1st

quarter) iLembe Mandeni Local Municipality




Agriculture, forestry and fishing 46.3 7.8 23.7 13.2 1.6

Mining and quarrying 8.2 4.5 1.9 1.4 0.3

Manufacturing 130.5 53.2 63.4 11.5 2.3

Electricity, gas and water 46.8 10.9 23.6 10.4 2.0

Construction 9.7 0.9 5.4 3.0 0.3

Wholesale and retail trade, catering and accommodation 41.9 12.8 21.9 6.1 1.1

Transport, storage and communication 81.4 18.0 34.4 14.3 14.8

Finance, insurance, real estate and business services 62.9 24.5 29.4 6.8 2.2

Community, social and personal services 4.9 0.7 1.9 0.7 1.6

General government 32.2 6.7 12.2 8.1 5.3

Total 464.7 140.1 217.8 75.4 31.3







Manufacturing 28.1% 38.0% 29.1% 15.3% 7.4%


Construction 2.1% 0.7% 2.5% 4.0% 1.0%


9.0% 9.2% 10.1% 8.1% 3.4%


17.5% 12.8% 15.8% 19.0% 47.1%


13.5% 17.5% 13.5% 9.0% 7.0%


1.0% 0.5% 0.9% 0.9% 5.1%


Page | 70


A1.20 Airport Passenger Movements

King Shaka International

OR Tambo International

Cape Town International

Richards Bay

Jan-10 340,474 1,379,351 652,777 8,045

Feb-10 333,138 1,294,225 641,521 8,093

Mar-10 408,244 1,541,563 763,347 8,122

Apr-10 398,248 1,471,710 671,799 8,177

May-10 385,712 1,415,752 596,701 8,195

Jun-10 390,958 1,606,304 634,907 8,219

Jul-10 396,342 1,571,751 640,722 8,236

Aug-10 405,934 1,606,086 636,716 8,249

Sep-10 414,797 1,605,985 678,168 8,269

Oct-10 429,150 1,680,079 713,713 8,288

Nov-10 406,454 1,540,792 714,598 8,299

Dec-10 410,535 1,600,939 676,783 8,357

Jan-11 397,781 1,507,654 689,035 5,273

Feb-11 376,166 1,373,190 687,458 6,371

Mar-11 423,680 1,665,879 773,929 7,203

Apr-11 422,985 1,590,663 708,336

May-11 405,906 1,516,484 615,991

A1.21 Port Movements

Richards Bay Durban

Total Cargo Handled (metric tonnes)

Total Number

of Vessels

Gross Tonnage of

Vessels

Total Cargo Handled (metric

tonnes)

Total Number of

Vessels

Gross Tonnage of

Vessels

2003 87,797,601 1,584 56,238,304 41,273,633 4,028 84,251,191

2004 85,688,419 1,584 56,847,580 40,026,277 3,707 79,970,878

2005 86,623,684 1,517 57,988,427 40,778,495 3,887 87,589,347

2006 86,319,200 1,470 56,810,539 43,861,241 4,161 95,085,938

2007 84,517,409 1,570 57,822,557 41,883,269 4,128 103,501,737

2008 81,737,929 1,615 57,090,284 41,578,997 4,229 106,505,793

2009 79,086,951 1,843 61,784,777 37,527,690 4,569 120,207,888

2010 85,148,039 1,733 61,761,815 41,645,861 4,317 124,192,321

2011 79,958,875 1,649 59,530,114 41,623,094 4,056 126,891,804

May-09 6,716,870 138 4,458,807 3,001,144 362 9,451,989

Jun-09 6,031,874 164 5,416,814 2,948,869 399 10,441,580

Jul-09 6,716,870 138 4,458,807 3,001,144 362 9,451,989

Aug-09 7,345,236 160 5,498,003 3,199,809 393 10,297,254

Page | 71


Richards Bay Durban

Total Cargo Handled (metric tonnes)

Total Number

of Vessels

Gross Tonnage of

Vessels

Total Cargo Handled (metric

tonnes)

Total Number of

Vessels

Gross Tonnage of

Vessels

Sep-09 5,445,579 161 5,342,793 3,674,757 390 10,172,682

Oct-09 7,359,904 165 5,738,368 2,848,733 322 8,277,482

Nov-09 8,310,610 176 5,952,691 3,393,824 406 10,916,317

Dec-09 6,379,175 149 4,845,522 3,863,000 346 9,872,380

Jan-10 8,347,126 144 5,150,731 3,004,940 352 10,574,204

Feb-10 5,575,392 135 4,818,691 4,032,917 332 9,738,440

Mar-10 7,283,526 153 5,145,926 3,132,089 317 9,452,495

Apr-10 5,316,956 146 5,184,834 2,755,754 332 9,710,781

May-10 6,585,682 111 3,954,941 3,293,580 343 9,562,789

Jun-10 5,856,847 133 4,646,809 3,878,741 403 11,699,900

Jul-10 6,982,025 147 5,595,118 3,327,534 403 11,218,950

Aug-10 7,296,530 143 5,126,674 4,215,169 374 10,771,230

Sep-10 6,505,607 157 5,778,165 2,792,122 426 11,806,039

Oct-10 9,532,676 167 6,649,368 3,491,031 346 9,506,167

Nov-10 8,418,939 149 4,314,159 4,881,552 350 10,029,237

Dec-10 7,446,733 148 5,396,399 2,840,432 339 10,122,089

Jan-11 6,327,013 130 4,862,313 2,940,830 329 10,435,719

Feb-11 7,271,996 160 5,559,062 4,298,149 348 11,140,379

Mar-11 6,972,140 137 5,193,110 3,312,353 324 9,981,423

Apr-11 6,787,453 143 5,070,479 3,368,295 339 10,434,520

May-11 5,957,596 117 4,119,250 3,423,329 350 10,879,544

REPORT COMPILED FOR:

Enterprise iLembe

Cnr Link Road and Ballito Drive

Ballito, KwaZulu-Natal

Tel: 032 – 946 1256

Fax: 032 – 946 3515

REPORT COMPILED BY:

Urban-Econ Development Economists

37 Hunt Road, Glenwood

Durban, 4001

Tel: 031 – 202 9673

Fax: 031 – 202 9675

Email: [email protected]

Documents

ILEMBE DISTRICT MUNICIPALITY NOVEMBER 2010 · NOVEMBER 2010 NOVEMBER 2010 INTELLIGENCE REPORT Enterprise iLembe Cnr Link Road and Ballito Drive Ballito, KwaZulu-Natal Tel: 032 –