iKnow interconnecting Knowledge

(EFP Workshop 26.10.11 - Part 1)

Rafael Popperrafael.popper@manchester.ac.uk

iKnow Project Director

ResearchingWild Cards

Researching Weak Signals

3 broader types of

Wild Cards

8 broader types of

Weak Signals

iKnow assumes that “anything” could be a weak signal… It all depends on the observer’s interpretation:1. Current Strengths & Weaknesses2. Current Drivers, Trends & Challenges3. Current Strategies & Policies4. Emerging Issues5. Future Drivers, Scenarios, Threats & Opportunities6. Shared Visions, Megatrends & Grand Challenges7. Hidden Issues (Secrets & Unknowns)8. Past Wild Cards Popper (2011)

Popper (2011)

McArthur's Universal

Corrective Map of the World

South

North

Popper (2011)

Some examples

ofWild Cards

Some examples

ofWeak

Signals

past wild cards

can be weak signals

of future events…

including newwild cards…

weak signalscan hint

about potential wild cards…

iKnow interconnecting Knowledge

(EFP Workshop 26.10.11 – Part 2)

Rafael Popperrafael.popper@manchester.ac.uk

iKnow Project Director

New Weak Signals Concept (Popper, 2011)

• Weak Signals are ambiguous events, often referred to as “seeds of change”, providing advance intelligence or “hints” about potentially important futures, e.g. Wild Cards, challenges and opportunities. Weak Signals lie in the eye of the beholder and are often influenced by the mental frameworks and subjective interpretations of individuals with limited information about emerging trends, developments or issues in a particular time and context. Their “weakness” is directly proportional to levels of uncertainty about their interpretations, importance and implications in the short-medium-to-long-term. Weak Signals are unclear observables warning us about the possibility of future “game changing” events.

• Influenced by– Mental frameworks– Subjective interpretations– Limited information– Time/Context

• i3 uncertain issues– Interpretation– Importance– Implications

• Pseudo-evidence-based– Unclear observables

• Creativity-based– Game changing events

iKnow is 50%

Research

iKnow is 50%

Technology Development

Research Agenda1. To develop wild cards (WI) research frameworks2. To develop weak signals (WE) research frameworks3. To develop strategies to scan and assess WIWE4. To explore WIWE shaping/shaking ERA & STI policy5. To develop ERA toolkit & practical guide to WIWE

Technology Development Agenda

1. To build tools capable of mapping WIWE2. To build tools capable of assessing WIWE3. To build tools capable of interconnecting WIWE4. To build tools capable of interconnecting knowledge5. To build tools capable of interconnecting actors

iKnow has positioned

Wild Cards &Weak Signals

(WI-WE) studies as a core element in foresight and

horizon scanning (FHS) activities

Horizon ScanningStrategy 1

ILTDHorizon Scanning

Strategy 2

OLTD

Horizon ScanningStrategy 4

OLBUHorizon Scanning

Strategy 3

ILBU

iKnow developed

4WIWE

scanning strategies

Top-Down

Inwa

rd-L

ooki

ng

Outward-Looking

Bottom-UpPopper (2011)

Popper (2011)

Nomination1. source2. theme3. sub-theme4. references5. short name / headline6. abstractDescription7. manifestation8. potential implications9. importanceAnalysis10. filters11. main drivers12. risks & opportunities13. stakeholders’ actionsInterconnection14. Grand Challenges15. thematic relevance16. ERA relevance17. relevant research-friendly strategies18. RTD & STI policy relevance

Nomination1. source2. theme3. sub-theme4. references5. short name / headline6. Abstract7. likelihoodDescription8. typology9. importanceAnalysis10. early indicators11. main drivers12. risks & opportunities13. stakeholders’ actionsInterconnection14. Grand Challenges15. thematic relevance16. ERA relevance17. relevant research-friendly strategies18. RTD & STI policy relevance

Mapping Weak SignalsMapping Wild Cards

Wild Cards Delphi Weak Signals Delphi

120 selected WIWE

assessed by

700+ participants

Wild Cards Delphi

Wild Cards headline navigation panel

Wild Cards headline navigation panel

Comments & full preview

Description & Originality

Short- & Long-term priority for policymaking

Importance for STI policy in Your Country & EU

Potential impacts on(in Your Country & the EU)

1- Physical infrastructure2 - Virtual infrastructure3 - Social welfare4 - Economy5 - Security6 - Policy & governance7 - Environment & ecosystems8 - STI systems

PreparednessERA relevance

Policy advice

Current signals indicating WI plausibilityFuture signals indicating WI plausibility

Analysis & Submission panels

60 Wild Cards

So far we have…

~4000assessments

Weak Signals Delphi

60 Weak Signals

So far we have…

2500+assessments

Wild Cards headline navigation panel

Wild Cards headline navigation panel

Comments & full preview

Description & Ambiguity

Main interpretation

STI Importance in Your Country & EU

Impact areas

1- Physical infrastructure2 - Virtual infrastructure3 - Social welfare4 - Economy5 - Security6 - Policy & governance7 - Environment & ecosystems8 - STI systems

ERA relevance

Policy advice

Potential wild card

Short- & Long-term priority for policymaking

Analysis & Submission panels

Comment on interpretation

Key facts and

figures

60 60 900+ ISSUES.

4000+ assessments to

60 Wild Cards

2500+ assessments to

60 Weak Signals

other

civil society

media

IGO

NGO

public actors (incl. research)

private actors (incl. research)

higher education institutions (HEI)

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

2%

0%

1%

1%

5%

22%

24%

44%

0%

0%

0%

3%

3%

4%

19%

71%

UK Global

113

434

UK Global

Delphi results on September 2011

50%match

CAP Universities close as research does not meet the needs of industryNUC Severe accident of a nuclear power plantSSH Soft "EuroLanding" or "Happy End" in EuroLandAGR Silent SeasCAP European Commission scrap research support projectsNUC A considerable increase in efficiency of renewable resourcesSSH Cyber Crusade: Massive e-sabotage by "hacktivists"AGR A Killer Water FilterICT Secure and safe internet that is easy to useENV Risk assessment "saves" millions of lives but…

Wild Cards

ICT Information crisis caused by personalized information deliveryENE Breakthrough in cold fusion leads to renaissance in energy marketsICT Secure and safe internet that is easy to useENE Gas from TrashSSH Cyber Crusade: Massive e-sabotage by "hacktivists"CAP Universities close as research does not meet the needs of industryICT Nano-lab inside your body HEA End of AgeingCAP European Commission scrap research support projectsSSH Soft "EuroLanding" or "Happy End" in EuroLand

Wild Cards

for

UK

30%match

CAP Universities close as research does not meet the needs of industryCAP European Commission scrap research support projectsNUC Severe accident of a nuclear power plantNUC A considerable increase in efficiency of renewable resourcesAGR Silent SeasSPA Space warSPA Revolutionary space propulsion technologySSH Soft "EuroLanding" or "Happy End" in EuroLandSSH Cyber Crusade: Massive e-sabotage by "hacktivists"HEA End of Ageing

ENE Breakthrough in cold fusion leads to renaissance in energy marketsCAP Universities close as research does not meet the needs of industryICT Information crisis caused by personalized information deliveryICT Nano-lab inside your body CAP Scientists up for murder as ethical issues for research are abolishedCAP European Commission scrap research support projectsENE Gas from TrashSSH Automatic learning through neuro-data transferICT Secure and safe internet that is easy to useHEA End of Ageing

Wild Cards for

STI

Wild Cards

for

UKSTI

Top 10Wild Cards

for

UK STI

Breakthrough in cold fusion leads to renaissance in energy markets

Universities close as research does not meet the needs of industry

Information crisis caused by personalized information delivery

Nano-lab inside your body

Scientists up for murder as ethical issues for research are abolished

European Commission scrap research support projects

Gas from Trash

Automatic learning through neuro-data transfer

Secure and safe internet that is easy to use

End of Ageing

Vi-I Sec Eco Pol STISoWEnvPh-I

Breakthrough in cold fusion leads to renaissance in energy markets

Universities close as research does not meet the needs of industry

Information crisis caused by personalized information delivery

Nano-lab inside your body

Scientists up for murder as ethical issues for research are abolished

European Commission scrap research support projects

Gas from Trash

Automatic learning through neuro-data transfer

Secure and safe internet that is easy to use

End of Ageing

1

2

3

4

5

Physical infrastructures Virtual infrastructures Social welfareEconomy Security Policy & governanceEnvironment & ecosystems Science, technology & innovation (STI) systems

STIEnv

SoWEco

Vi-ISec

STI

Vi-I

Eco

EnvEco

STIPol

STIPol

SoWSTI

Vi-I

STI

Pol

Sec

Sec

STI EcoSec

Sec

Popper (2011)

CAP Lack of interest in science by young scholarsAGR Emergence of new agricultural methods for coping with climate changeCAP Administration rather than results a prioritySEC No strict global rules on nuclear securityNUC Development of new materialsENV Growing frequency of floods in Europe and the world SPA Privatisation of space flightsNAN Implantable electronics leaving no traceSSH Concerns over socio-economic and humanities research "downgrade"NUC Small-scale nuclear power plant operating

CAP Lack of interest in science by young scholarsCAP Administration rather than results a prioritySEC No strict global rules on nuclear securityICT Next generation peer-to-peer content delivery platformENV Growing frequency of floods in Europe and the world ICT Fast electronics for compact lab-on-chip applications AGR Bees be no more, less food than beforeENV Growing environmental legal class actions on no-win no-fee basisENV Emergence of secondary carbon financial vehiclesHEA Increasing Self-Medication

Weak Signals

Top 10Weak

Signals for

UK

40%match

CAP Lack of interest in science by young scholarsSPA Optical lifting demonstrated for the first timeCAP Administration rather than results a prioritySSH Growing interest in wild cards and weak signals researchCAP Growing efforts to assist SMEs to exploit R&D collaborative projectsSPA Ideas for radically new ways to reach SpaceNAN Herbs (enhanced by Nanotechnology) used to fight cancerSPA Privatisation of space flightsNAN Implantable electronics leaving no traceNUC Development of new materials

HEA Neuro-EnhancementICT Fast electronics for compact lab-on-chip applications SSH Growing interest in wild cards and weak signals researchCAP Lack of interest in science by young scholarsCAP Administration rather than results a priorityCAP Growing efforts to assist SMEs to exploit R&D collaborative projectsHEA Increasing Self-MedicationICT Migration of internet services in pervasive ICT environmentICT Next generation peer-to-peer content delivery platformENV Growing frequency of floods in Europe and the world

Weak Signals

for

STI

Top 10 Weak

Signals for

UKSTI

40%match

Neuro-Enhancement

Fast electronics for compact lab-on-chip applications

Growing interest in wild cards and weak signals research

Lack of interest in science by young scholars

Administration rather than results a priority

Growing efforts to assist SMEs to exploit R&D collaborative projects

Increasing Self-Medication

Migration of internet services in pervasive ICT environment

Next generation peer-to-peer content delivery platform

Growing frequency of floods in Europe and the world

Top 10Weak Signals

for

UK STI

Growing frequency of floods in Europe and the world

Next generation peer-to-peer content delivery platform

Migration of internet services in pervasive ICT environment

Increasing Self-Medication

Growing efforts to assist SMEs to exploit R&D collaborative projects

Administration rather than results a priority

Lack of interest in science by young scholars

Growing interest in wild cards and weak signals research

Fast electronics for compact lab-on-chip applications

Neuro-Enhancement

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

91%

71%

83%

67%

71%

67%

44%

50%

50%

33%

9%

14%

17%

22%

29%

33%

33%

43%

50%

67%

14%

11%

11%

0%

11%

7%

Interpretations of the Signalspotential continuation of important present issues in the future potential discontinuation of important present issues/developmentspotential re-emergence of past issues potential emergence of new issues/developments

Lack of interest in science by young scholars

Growing interest in wild cards and weak signals research

Growing efforts to assist SMEs to exploit R&D collaborative projects

Next generation peer-to-peer content delivery platform

Fast electronics for compact lab-on-chip applications

Migration of internet services in pervasive ICT environment

Neuro-Enhancement

Administration rather than results a priority

Increasing Self-Medication

Growing frequency of floods in Europe and the world

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Physical infrastructures Virtual infrastructures Social welfareEconomy Security Policy & governanceEnvironment & ecosystems Science, technology & innovation (STI) systems

Vi-I STI

Sec STI

SoW PolEco STI

Pol Eco

Pol EcoSTI

Pol STI

Vi-ISTISoW Eco

SoWEnv Ph-I

Popper (2011)

iKnow Project & Tools(R + TD Agenda)

iOracle(Mapping)

iLibrary(interconnecting, sharing and

managing knowledge)

iCommunity(Networking)

iScan(Advanced WI-WE monitoring)

iBank(Knowledge generation

and WI-WE mapping)

iDelphi(Participatory WI-WE assessment)

iNews(Dissemination)