© OECD/IEA 2015

On the road to the Antalya G20 Summit

Dr. Fatih Birol Chief Economist

International Energy Agency Istanbul, 15 May 2015

© OECD/IEA 2015

The G20 share of key indicators

The G20 has a key role to play on energy issues due to its sheer weight in global

balances and as energy security & climate challenges go beyond national boundaries

10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Energy investment

Carbon dioxide emissions

Energy demand

Population

GDP

Share of global

© OECD/IEA 2015

Africa: Rich in resources

In the last 5 years, almost 30% of global oil & discoveries were in sub-Saharan Africa;

Hydro

Wind Oil

Oil

Oil

Oil Gas

Gas

Oil

Coal

Gas

Fossil fuels

Solar

the region has vast untapped renewables potential, notably hydropower & solar

© OECD/IEA 2015

Inclusive & robust economic growth is impossible without energy access; two-thirds of the population in sub-Saharan Africa (620 million people) still live without electricity

Less than 50%

More than 50%

Share of population with access to electricity:

Africa: Rich in resources, but poor in supply

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Momentum for reform is building – including in India, Indonesia & Mexico – yet fossil fuel subsidies still totalled around $500 billion in 2014, or 4 times those to renewable energy

Fossil fuel subsidies impose enormous economic, social & environmental costs

Bill

ion

do

llars

(n

om

inal

)

100

200

300

400

500

600

2007 2008 20 09 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

20

40

60

80

100

120 Eastern Europe/Eurasia Latin America Africa Asia Middle East

© OECD/IEA 2015

As coal remains the backbone of many power systems, action is needed to mandate high-efficiency plants

China

India

China

India

Other Asia

Rest of the world

Rest of the World

Projected coal-fired plant additions 2014 – 2040

1 365 GW

Each – and every – percentage point improvement in the efficiency of the coal-fired fleet, cuts global coal use by almost the current demand of Germany

© OECD/IEA 2015

The entire global CO2 budget to 2100 is used Paris must send a strong signal that increases low-carbon investment to four times current levels

Building on commitments from G20 countries gathering in Antalya,

World CO2 budget for 2 °C ~2300 Gt

25%

50%

75%

100%

Share of budget used in Central Scenario

1900-2012

2012-2040

Average annual low-carbon investment, 2014-2040

Central Scenario

For 2°C target

2013

CCS

Nuclear

Renewables

Efficiency

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Trill

ion

do

llars

(2

01

3)

Antalya to Paris – the last chance to reach the 2°C goal ?

© OECD/IEA 2015

MIDDLE EAST (780)

RUSSIA (413)

Turkey’s proximity to almost 70% of the world’s oil & gas reserves enhances its attraction as a place to do business & as a gateway to other major consumers

In an often volatile region, Turkey plays a pivotal role in energy security

Global oil & gas reserves in proximity of Turkey (billion barrels of oil-equivalent)

TURKEY

IRAN (361)

NORTH AFRICA (117)

IRAQ (166)

CASPIAN (238)

MEDITERRANEAN (28)

© OECD/IEA 2015

Natural gas demand in Turkey has more than tripled since 2000, reaching almost 50 bcm in 2014; a level higher than that of France

Strong demand has made Turkey a bright spot in Europe's gas market

Growth in natural gas demand, 2000-2014

- 50

- 40

- 30

- 20

- 10

0

10

20

30

40

bcm

Europe

Europe excluding

Turkey

Turkey

© OECD/IEA 2015

The need for G20 action on energy

Secure & stable energy markets are critical for sustained economic growth in the G20 and beyond

Energy access in sub-Saharan Africa is a prerequisite for inclusive & robust growth

Without clear direction from G20 economies, the world is set for warming well beyond the 2°C goal

Considering the global economic & geopolitical landscape, the Turkish G20 Presidency comes at an ideal moment

The IEA stands ready to continue to support Turkey