II. CAUSES OF SPECIES DECLINESA. Habitat loss and Degradation B. OverexploitationC. Introduced/Invasive/Exotic Species (no real outline but we read paper and put together Powerpoint on MN species and emphasize community vs ecosystem effects)D. Climate change

D. Climate change1. CO2 Movie

2. What parts of the earth you expect the greatest number of species to be affected and why?

What kinds of species would you expect to be affected and why? (did this on board)

3. Biodiversity and climate change articlea. How can species respond? (space, time and

self)b. Phenotypic Plasticity vs Evolution

If they respond by altering time (timing of events or phenology) or if they respond by altering self (physiology) this change may occur through phenotypic plasticity OR evolution (or some of both).

c. Concerns shared in article…4. Chameides article on people’s acceptance of climate

change (Questions for this article are later in this ppt)

5. Wrap-up (Evolution phenotypic plasticity and Berkeley Video Clip -I gave you a handout to review on Wed Ap 8)

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/ 1. check out the CO2 movie…

Why does CO2 increase and decrease seasonally? What parts of the earth you expect the greatest number of species to be affected and why? What kinds of species would you expect to be affected and why?

Use your logic and whatever previous knowledge you have.

2. What parts of the earth you expect the greatest number of species to be affected and why?(EXPOSURE)

What kinds of species would you expect to be affected and why?(SENSITIVITY)

3. Article! Biodiversity and Climate Change

Climate change could surpass habitat destruction

“However the multiplicity of approaches and resulting variability in projections makes it difficult to get a clear picture of the future…”

This article is trying to make sense of the different ways people have looked at biodiversity loss!

Many aspects of climate!

All of these many aspects of climate can affect many different aspects of the organisms on the planet!

a. Fig 2!What does figure 2 show?

Can you make up a theoretical response by a species of your choosing?

PHYSICALLY MOVING EITHER A SHORT OR LONG DISTANCE* (SPATIAL)

CHANGE YOUR LIFE CYCLE TO MATCH NEW CLIMATE(TEMPORAL)

CHANGE YOUR PHYSIOLOGY SO YOU CAN COPE (SELF)

b. Phenotypic Plasticity vs EvolutionLets imagine you have to change your physiology! Imagine a plant population that needs to produce some protein that increases their ability to tolerate a very hot day. There are two ways this might happen.

• In this population their plant bodies may sense high temp turn on some gene that starts to produce a protein. Populations are often flexible-are “ physiologically or phenotypically plastic.”

(Equivalent of exercising in order to get in shape.)

• Or the population you are a part of EVOLVES.

Some individual in the population has a mutation that perhaps means a different protein is made that helps them live through high heat.

http://evolution.berkeley.edu/evolibrary/news/090501_climatechange

Visit a couple of the different points the paper and chapter make….c. Concerns…..

1. The paper talks about different models….Here is an envelope model…

Which scenario are you hoping for and why?Nevertheless what challenges might this large population of trees face?

Is there overlap in current and future ranges?

If this species cannot “keep up” (if warming happens quickly) then this species will be fine because…

Or will it?

•Here have ”northern adapted” subpopulation “suddenly” at southern edge of range

•So preserving genetic variation is very important and that means what?====>Keeping population sizes large and are we doing that?

Concerns…2. Lose genetic variation due to directional select Why?

3. Indirect community effects-climate will modify the web of interactions (species will disappear because species they depend on will disappear –pollinators and parasites!)

Other concerns….4. pH oceans

5. Decoupling of events…• Arctic hare turning white too early.• Pollinator emerges before flower it is

supposed to pollinate opens! • Birds often migrate and time young

emergence from egg to coincide with insect explosion

6. Threshold events • pine bark beetle (native) and emerald ash

borer (introduced)..can’t survive overwinter, can’t survive now can! (No effect and then boom)

• Mosquito line in Hawaiian honeycreepers (susceptible species have to live above a cutoff)

7. Conservation strategies need revision!• Preserve habitat/species need to think about

their ability to move!

• Need to preserve larger populations to ensure we have the genetic variation in populations required for continued evolutionary change AND to buffer chance extreme weather events.

8. Human assisted migration? Should we do this and under what circumstances?Joshua trees no longer being in Josua tree National Park.

4. For the Bill Chameides article online at the Huffington Post….

1. They found 20% of people did not agree that sea ice had been declining. First, why did they choose a question about sea ice and not a question like “is climate warming”?

2. What are the “science illiteracy” and “assimilation bias explanations” for such a result? Hamilton’s Research3. What were the different patterns of acceptance in Democrats and Republicans and how did they change with education? Kahan’s Research4. What did he find and why does he think he found it?  5. What are implications?!!??