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IFIF/FAO Business Meeting - Rome 2006IFIF/FAO Business Meeting - Rome 2006
Agriculture Agriculture and the and the
Animal Feed IndustryAnimal Feed Industry
IntroductionIntroduction
World population and GDP growth driving meat consumption, more World population and GDP growth driving meat consumption, more meat means more grain … feed demand and animal feed meat means more grain … feed demand and animal feed supplements are rising supplements are rising
Global customers have greater buying power and feed grain raw Global customers have greater buying power and feed grain raw material prices have been favorable … but changes are in store for material prices have been favorable … but changes are in store for the global poultry and livestock industry … the result of the boom in the global poultry and livestock industry … the result of the boom in ethanol and biodiesel production. ethanol and biodiesel production.
Health and Food Safety concerns are putting pressure on better Health and Food Safety concerns are putting pressure on better quality feed ingredients quality feed ingredients
There is growing concern with environmental issues in animal There is growing concern with environmental issues in animal agriculture agriculture
Source: United Nations, FAOSource: United Nations, FAO
Million TonnesMillion Tonnes
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
World Population
World Meat Consumption
World Population Growth and Meat ConsumptionWorld Population Growth and Meat Consumption
Billion People Billion People
Source: United Nations Source: United Nations
World Population World Population
Actual
Forecast
Billion PeopleBillion People
Source: IMF September 2006Source: IMF September 2006
World Economic Growth 2005World Economic Growth 2005
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
China India Indonesia Malaysia World Thailand Brazil
Percent Annual GDP GrowthPercent Annual GDP Growth
Source: FAOSource: FAO
World Per Capita Meat ConsumptionWorld Per Capita Meat Consumption
20
25
30
35
40
45
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Kg/Person/YearKg/Person/Year
Source: FAO Source: FAO
Kg/Person/YearKg/Person/Year
World Per Capita Meat Consumption by RegionWorld Per Capita Meat Consumption by Region
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130
North America
Developed World
Latin America
World
Developing World
Asia
Africa
Source: FAOSource: FAO
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1995 2015 2030
Developed Developing
World Meat Consumption 1995 - 2030World Meat Consumption 1995 - 2030
Million Tonnes
Source: Brilliant Pioneer ConsultantSource: Brilliant Pioneer Consultant
China’s Meat Consumption 2005 - 2030China’s Meat Consumption 2005 - 2030
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2005201020202030 2005201020202030 2005201020202030 2005201020202030 2005201020202030
Million TonnesMillion Tonnes
BeefBeef PoultryPoultry
PorkPork
DairyDairy
EggsEggs
Source: Feed International January 2006Source: Feed International January 2006
290
370
440
537
590 597 605
575586 591 597 604 612 614
626
200
300
400
500
600
700
1975 1985 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
World Compound Feed ProductionWorld Compound Feed ProductionMillion TonnesMillion Tonnes
Source: USDA Source: USDA
US Meat Production and ExportsUS Meat Production and Exports
0
6
12
18
24
30
36
1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006E
Beef Production Pork ProductionBroiler Production Beef Exports
Pork Exports Broiler Exports
Billion lbsBillion lbs
Source: USDA Source: USDA
China’s Meat Production and ExportsChina’s Meat Production and Exports
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
55000
1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006E
Beef Production Pork Production
Broiler Production Beef Exports
Pork Exports Broiler Exports
000 Tonnes CWE000 Tonnes CWE
Source: USDA Source: USDA
Brazil’s Meat Production and ExportsBrazil’s Meat Production and Exports
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006E
Beef Production Pork Production
Broiler Production Beef ExportsPork Exports Broiler Exports
000 Tonnes CWE000 Tonnes CWE
Source: Earth Policy Institute, Renewable Fuels AssociationSource: Earth Policy Institute, Renewable Fuels Association
World Ethanol and Biodiesel Production World Ethanol and Biodiesel Production
Billion GallonsBillion Gallons
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
World Ethanol World Biodiesel
Source: USDA, PotashCorpSource: USDA, PotashCorp
US Corn Used for EthanolUS Corn Used for Ethanol
Billion BushelsBillion Bushels
-0.2
0.2
0.6
1.0
1.4
1.8
2.2
2.6
3.0
3.4
88/89 91/92 94/95 97/98 00/01 03/04 06/07F 11/12F
18% 18%
6% 6%
% of total US % of total US corn usecorn use
25-30%25-30%
Source: FAOSource: FAO
World Grain ConsumptionWorld Grain Consumption
60%45%
Billion TonnesBillion Tonnes
Source: USDA September 2006Source: USDA September 2006
World Grain Production and ConsumptionWorld Grain Production and Consumption
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1982/83 1985/86 1988/89 1991/92 1994/95 1997/98 2000/01 2003/04 2006/07F
Production
Consumption
Billion Tonnes
US, China and India produce over 40% of the world’s wheat and coarse grains.
Near Perfect Weather Year
Production Gap
Wheat & Coarse GrainsWheat & Coarse Grains
Source: USDA September 2006Source: USDA September 2006
World Grain StocksWorld Grain Stocks
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1974/75 1978/79 1982/83 1986/87 1990/91 1994/95 1998/99 2002/03 2006/07F10
15
20
25
30
35
40Year-End Grain Stocks
Stocks-to-Use Ratio
Million Tonnes Percent
USDA’s estimated grain ending stocks-to-use ratio of 15.5% for 2006/07 will be the lowest in over 30 years.
Wheat & Coarse GrainsWheat & Coarse Grains
Source: USDA September 2006Source: USDA September 2006
China’s Corn Supply and Demand China’s Corn Supply and Demand
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
86/87 88/89 90/91 92/93 94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07F
Production
Exports
Consumption
Stocks
Million Tonnes
Stocks Continue to Fall
Production Gap
ExportsDeclining
Favorable Production Years
Thank YouThank You