i. enhance agricultural competitiveness while limiting further environmental degradation.

ii. develop food systems which enhance the social security of the more vulnerable.

iii. create more rural employment opportunities to reduce labour migration and urbanisation.

IGP Regional Policy PrioritiesEstablished during s/holder dialogues 2003-04

GECAFSConceptual Framework

Conditions&

Scenarios

CurrentFood Systems

AdaptedFood Systems

Vulnerability & Impacts

Feedbacks

Adaptation

DecisionSupport

DecisionSupport

Conditions&

Scenarios

CurrentFood Systems

AdaptedFood Systems

What will be the consequences of changed

water management on rural livelihoods, intra-

regional trade, GHG emissions and water

tables?

How will GEC and increasing non-farm demands affect change in water supply and demand and consequent food system vulnerability?

How can changes in water management (e.g. though policy instruments and/or agronomic aspects) reduce

food system vulnerability to GEC?

IGP Western Sub-Region Example GECAFS Questions

• high productivity – food surplus region• high investment in infrastructure• major use of fertilisers and ground-water for irrigation• in-migration of labour

DecisionSupport

Conditions&

Scenarios

CurrentFood Systems

AdaptedFood Systems

How would diversification effect

rural incomes, labour migration, water quality

and regional biodiversity?

How will GEC affect vulnerability of food systems to flooding and drought, and how will this exacerbate existing socio-economic inequities?

What are the market opportunities, social constraints and technical options for adapting food systems to GEC?

IGP Eastern Sub-Region Example GECAFS Questions

• low productivity – food deficit region• poor infrastructure and low inputs of fertilizer and water• high risk of flooding• out-migration of labour

Outputs from CPW&F BFP funding to GECAFS IGP

1. Food systems documented in five case study sites across the IGP and interactions with water stress and water management analysed.

2. Methodology developed for basin-scale analysis based on analysing the diversity of food systems and their vulnerability to water stress in diverse case studies.

3. Understanding improved of the vulnerability of food systems to interactive socio-economic and environmental stresses.

Conditions&

Scenarios

CurrentFood Systems

AdaptedFood Systems

Vulnerability & Impacts Feedbacks

Adaptation

DecisionSupport

1. Identify the vulnerability of case-study food systems in IGP to GEC in the context of socioeconomic issues/changes.

2. Enhance capacity within the APN scientific community to raise awareness of the vulnerability of case-study food systems in IGP to GEC within the policy making community.

3. Improve policy formulation by district and national institutions to enable and enhance district and national strategies for identifying adaptation strategies to reduce the vulnerability of IGP food systems to GEC.

GECAFS IGP APN ProjectMain Objectives

Conceptual & methodological research on generic topics based on science and policy issues identified in regional projects.

GECAFS Research Approaches

Policy-relevant research at regional-level on impacts,

adaptation and feedbacks based on improved conceptual

understanding and methods.

Conditions&

Scenarios

CurrentFood Systems

AdaptedFood Systems

Vulnerability & Impacts Feedbacks

Adaptation

DecisionSupport

• Indo-Gangetic Plain• Caribbean

• Southern Africa• Others?

• Food Systems Concepts• Vulnerability Concepts• Scenario Construction• Decision Support

IdentifyAdaptation

to GEC (Options)

Analyse Implications

(DS-Systems)

DevelopGEC - FSScenarios

(PlausibleFutures)

Assess Vulnerability

to GEC(Conditions)

GECAFSDecisionSupport(feedbacks,

trade-offs, ...)

Adapted Food Systems

Current Food Systems

StakeholdersResearchers

EstablishAgenda

GECAFS Decision Support Research

GECAFS Decision Support Researchraising awareness and analysing trade-offs

1. Establishing how best to establish and maintain dialogue between scientists and policy makers for GEC-food security research.

2. Learning how best to involve policy makers and resource managers in collaborative research, e.g. scenarios exercises.

3. Networking with science-policy and adaptive mgmt groups.

Australia Gabriele Bammer, ANU: Knowledge management, exchange and implementation.

Bangladesh Ahsan Ahmed, BUP: National case-study site research and coordination, and policy links.

India Rajinder Sidhu, PAU & Shiraz Wajih, GEAG: National case-study site research and coordination, and policy links.

Nepal Ajaya Dixit, NWCF: Project coordination, Nepal site research and coordination, and policy links.

New Zealand Will Allen, Landcare Research: Integrated information frameworks for decision making.

Pakistan Nazim Ali, GCISC: National case-study site research and coordination, and policy links.

USA Greg Kiker, UF: GECAFS decision support systems development and QnD.

GECAFS IGP APN ProjectMembers (PIs) involved