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1/19/13 IEEE Xplore - Trajectory and launch point estimation for ballistic missiles from boost phase LOS measurements ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/login.jsp?tp=&arnumber=792108&url=http%3A%2F%2Fieeexplore.ieee.org%2Fxpls%2Fabs_all.jsp%3Farnumber%3D792108 1/2 For Institutional Users: Institutional Sign In Athens/Shibboleth Browse Conference Publications > Aerospace Conference, 1999. P ... This paper appears in: Aerospace Conference, 1999. Proceedings. 1999 IEEE Date of Conference: 1999 Author(s): Yicong Lih Comverse Network Syst., Wakefield, MA Kirubarajan, T. ; Bar-Shalom, Y. ; Yeddanapudi, M. Volume: 4 Page(s): 425 - 442 vol.4 Product Type: Conference Publications Available Formats Non-Member Price Member Price PDF US$31.00 US$13.00 Trajectory and launch point estimation for ballistic missiles from boost phase LOS measurements ABSTRACT This paper addresses the problem of estimating the trajectory and the launch point of a tactical ballistic missile using line of sight (LOS) measurements from one or more passive sensors (typically satellite-borne), The major difficulties of this problem include the ill-conditioning of the estimation problem due to poor observability of the target motion via LOS measurements, the estimation of the unknown launch time, and the incorporation of inaccurate target thrust profiles to model the target dynamics during the boost phase. We present a maximum likelihood (ML) estimator based on the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm that provides both the target state estimate and the associated error covariance, taking into consideration the complications mentioned above. One important consideration in the defense against tactical ballistic missiles (TBM) is the determination of the target position and error covariance at the acquisition range of a surveillance radar located in the vicinity of the impact point. We present a systematic procedure to propagate the target state and covariance to a nominal time, when it is within the detection range of a surveillance radar to obtain a cueing region. We also provide an estimate and the error covariance of the (two dimensional) launch position, which can be used to search for the missile launch site. Monte Carlo simulation studies on typical single and multiple sensor scenarios indicate that the proposed algorithms are accurate in terms of the estimates and that the estimator calculated covariances are consistent with the errors INDEX TERMS IEEE Terms Maximum likelihood estimation , Missiles , Motion estimation , Motion measurement , Phase estimation , Phase measurement , Radar , State estimation , Surveillance , Time measurement INSPEC Controlled Indexing Monte Carlo methods , maximum likelihood estimation , missiles , observability , search radar , state estimation , target tracking Non Controlled Indexing Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm , Monte Carlo simulation studies , ballistic missiles , boost phase LOS measurements , cueing region , detection range , error covariance , estimator calculated covariances , ill- conditioning , launch point estimation , line of sight measurements , maximum likelihood estimator , observability , surveillance radar , target dynamics , target motion , target state estimate , target thrust profiles , trajectory estimation Topic(s) : Aerospace ; Communication, Networking & Broadcasting ; Components, Circuits, Devices & Systems ; Fields, Waves & Electromagnetics Meeting Date : 06 Mar 1999-13 Mar 1999 Conference Location : Snowmass at Aspen, CO Print ISBN: 0-7803-5425-7 INSPEC Accession Number: 6497257 Digital Object Identifier : 10.1109/AERO.1999.792108 Date of Current Version : 06 August 2002 Issue Date : 1999 IEEE.org | IEEE Xplore Digital Library | IEEE Standards | IEEE Spectrum | More Sites Additional Details References (22)

IEEE Xplore - Trajectory and Launch Point Estimation for Ballistic Missiles From Boost Phase LOS Measurements

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Page 1: IEEE Xplore - Trajectory and Launch Point Estimation for Ballistic Missiles From Boost Phase LOS Measurements

1/19/13 IEEE Xplore - Trajectory and launch point estimation for ballistic missiles from boost phase LOS measurements

ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/login.jsp?tp=&arnumber=792108&url=http%3A%2F%2Fieeexplore.ieee.org%2Fxpls%2Fabs_all.jsp%3Farnumber%3D792108 1/2

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Athens/Shibboleth

Browse Conference Publications > Aerospace Conference, 1999. P ...

This paper appears in:

Aerospace Conference, 1999. Proceedings. 1999 IEEE

Date of Conference: 1999

Author(s): Yicong Lih

Comverse Network Syst., Wakefield, MA

Kirubarajan, T. ; Bar-Shalom, Y. ; Yeddanapudi, M.

Volume: 4

Page(s): 425 - 442 vol.4

Product Type: Conference Publications

Available FormatsNon-Member

PriceMember Price

PDF US$31.00 US$13.00

Trajectory and launch point estimation for ballistic missiles from

boost phase LOS measurements

ABSTRACT

This paper addresses the problem of estimating the trajectory and the launch point of a tactical ballistic missile

using line of sight (LOS) measurements from one or more passive sensors (typically satellite-borne), The major

difficulties of this problem include the ill-conditioning of the estimation problem due to poor observability of the

target motion via LOS measurements, the estimation of the unknown launch time, and the incorporation of

inaccurate target thrust profiles to model the target dynamics during the boost phase. We present a maximum

likelihood (ML) estimator based on the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm that provides both the target state

estimate and the associated error covariance, taking into consideration the complications mentioned above. One

important consideration in the defense against tactical ballistic missiles (TBM) is the determination of the target

position and error covariance at the acquisition range of a surveillance radar located in the vicinity of the impact

point. We present a systematic procedure to propagate the target state and covariance to a nominal time, when

it is within the detection range of a surveillance radar to obtain a cueing region. We also provide an estimate and

the error covariance of the (two dimensional) launch position, which can be used to search for the missile launch

site. Monte Carlo simulation studies on typical single and multiple sensor scenarios indicate that the proposed

algorithms are accurate in terms of the estimates and that the estimator calculated covariances are consistent

with the errors

INDEX TERMS

IEEE Terms

Maximum likelihood estimation , Missiles , Motion estimation , Motion measurement , Phase estimation , Phase

measurement , Radar , State estimation , Surveillance , Time measurement

INSPEC

Controlled Indexing

Monte Carlo methods , maximum likelihood estimation , missiles , observability , search radar , state estimation ,

target tracking

Non Controlled Indexing

Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm , Monte Carlo simulation studies , ballistic missiles , boost phase LOS

measurements , cueing region , detection range , error covariance , estimator calculated covariances , ill-

conditioning , launch point estimation , line of sight measurements , maximum likelihood estimator , observability

, surveillance radar , target dynamics , target motion , target state estimate , target thrust profiles , trajectory

estimation

Topic(s) : Aerospace ; Communication, Networking & Broadcasting ; Components, Circuits, Devices & Systems ;

Fields, Waves & Electromagnetics

Meeting Date : 06 Mar 1999-13 Mar 1999

Conference Location : Snowmass at Aspen, CO

Print ISBN: 0-7803-5425-7

INSPEC Accession Number: 6497257

Digital Object Identifier : 10.1109/AERO.1999.792108

Date of Current Version : 06 August 2002

Issue Date : 1999

IEEE.org | IEEE Xplore Digital Library | IEEE Standards | IEEE Spectrum | More Sites

Additional Details References (22)

Page 2: IEEE Xplore - Trajectory and Launch Point Estimation for Ballistic Missiles From Boost Phase LOS Measurements

1/19/13 IEEE Xplore - Trajectory and launch point estimation for ballistic missiles from boost phase LOS measurements

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