IEEE ComSoc SCV Panel on Mobile Backhaul October 10, 2012 · Small Cells are a Big Deal IEEE ComSoc SCV Panel on Mobile Backhaul October 10, 2012 ... – Phase 3: 4G capacity upgrades,

Small Cells are a Big Deal IEEE ComSoc SCV Panel on Mobile Backhaul

October 10, 2012

Michael HowardCo-Founder and Principal Analyst

Carrier Networks

Copyright © 2012 Infonetics Research, Inc.

Mobile Backhaul Trends


Traffic growth—Ethernet to the rescue

Source: Infonetics Research, Mobile Backhaul Equipment and Services, Market Size, Share, and Forecasts, March 2012

PDH vs Ethernet: Annual Mobile Backhaul Service Charges per Connection

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PDH and ATM over PDH Ethernet wireline

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New Ethernet wireline PDH and ATM over PDHSONET/SDH and WDM

…or move to Ethernet

Stay on TDM

• Costs of traffic drive operators to IP/Ethernet backhaul– The “new Ethernet wireline” (Ethernet over fiber or copper, DSL, PON,

cable) costs significantly less per bit than TDM

• Capacities and charges reflect current planning for HSPA+ and LTE


Operators are deploying MBH capable of supporting LTE now

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From Infonetics survey of 27 mobile operators and backhaul transport providers, representing 54% of 2011 telecom capex

Source: Infonetics Research, Small Cell and LTE Backhaul Strategies: Global Service Provider Survey, November 30, 2011


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IP/Ethernet Equipment Other Equipment Ethernet % of total

IP/Ethernet is 94% of 2012 MBH equipment spending—must support LTE

• Global 2012 MBH equipment spend will be $7.3 billion

– Surge of Ethernet MBH routers in China caused part of the 2011 bump; return to normal in 2012

• Steady growth after 2012 – $8.3B in 2016

– Cumulative $39B over 5 years

• This is very healthy growth, especially for a market in the billions of dollars

Source: Infonetics Research, Mobile Backhaul Equipment and Services, Market Size, Share, and Forecasts, March 2012


Small cells and small cell backhaul


Virtually all new connections are IP Ethernet

• IP/Ethernet and LTE mobile backhaul are intertwined

• Microwave is big part: Ethernet-only and dual Ethernet/TDMSource: Infonetics Research, Mobile Backhaul Equipment and Services, Market Size, Share, and Forecasts, March 2012

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Until LTE kicks in, 3G dominates small cells• Small cells: Micro, pico, public access femto—not residential;

outdoor is new, in-building is not

• We expect $250 million in small cell equipment spending in 2012, growing to over $2 billion in 2016

– Phase 1: 3G rollouts, 2008–2011

– Phase 2: 3G expansion and upgrades, 2012–2016

– Phase 3: 4G capacity upgrades, 2013–2016

• In Phase 3, we expect a dramatic shift from 3G to LTE– By unit numbers:

2012: 100% 3G (early LTE deployments are field trials only)

2013: Kick-off year with 37% LTE small cell units (63% for 3G)

2015: LTE small cells hit about 57% of total, overtaking 3G

Source: Infonetics, Small Cell Equipment Market Size and Forecast, April 2012


Small cell backhaul is Ethernet NLOS-MWV-MMW play• Operators are evaluating, testing, planning outdoor small cells

– Very few outdoor rollouts to date, so no clear operator approach

– Virtually all small cell deployments to date: 3G, in-building

• Most operators will deploy first outdoor in the urban core– 3 to 8 picocells per macrocell

– Most will aggregate small cell backhaul traffic onto the nearest macrocell site

– Macrocell sites are connected to fiber backhaul networks

• From operators, we know fiber preferred, but that collectively various “microwave” technologies will play a strong role outdoors

– Signaling between macrocells and coordinated small cells is certain

– Microwave

– Millimeter wave, licensed/unlicensed

– NLOS, licensed/unlicensed

– Operators considering P2P, P2MP, mesh

• Opportunity: backhaul transport providers can extend Ethernet backhaul service from urban core fiber to small cells via fiber, NLOS, MWV, MMW

Source: Infonetics, SDNs, 40G/100G, and MPLS Control Plane Strategies: Global Service Provider Survey, July 2012


SDNs and mobile backhaul


SDNs are here to stay, but not here today

Source: Infonetics, SDNs, 40G/100G, and MPLS Control Plane Strategies: Global Service Provider Survey, July 9, 2012

• Service providers are smitten by SDNs; a good majority of those we surveyed are planning purchases or considering 5 new SDN technologies:

– OpenFlow—good for operations/provisioning in contained domains

– BGP-TE—allows network elements to communicate across IP address domains known as Autonomous Systems (almost every operator has 1 AS of their own)

– PCE—allows network elements to “see farther” to discover network nodes, compute pathways

– IETF SDNP—goal is to define applications to network API mechanisms

– ALTO—allows network elements to locate cloud resources dynamically

• SDNs targeted for contained network domains, including mobile backhaul


SDNs are here to stay, but long slow path

• Top 3 drivers for carriers to consider or use service provider SDNs– #1 Simplified provisioning

– #2 Creation of network services—and virtual networks—not possible with existing technologies

– #3 Creation of virtual networks across multivendor equipment

Service Providers Have SDNs on Their Minds (July 2012)

43%33% 33% 33%

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OpenFlow BGP-TE PCE IETF SDNP ALTOSDN Technologies

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Source: Infonetics, SDNs, 40G/100G, and MPLS Control Plane Strategies: Global Service Provider Survey, July 9, 2012


SDNs for MBH: Ericsson lab demo

• OpenFlow and MPLS create “hybrid SDN” in IP, MPLS, Ethernet, WDM networks

– MPLS and OpenFlow abstracted into the Ericsson Transmission Control Node, or TCN

• Demo set up a video conference call across routers controlled by MPLS and packet-optical equipment controlled by OpenFlow

– OpenFlow control plane coordinated with the switches control plane

– OpenFlow created virtual domain consisting of many devices, all of which together appeared to the other equipment as a single device

• Ericsson OpenFlow extension: auto provisioning across different vendor equipment, in which a new product is introduced into the network and automatically configured


SDNs for MBH: Ericsson lab demo

• Demo set up a video conference call across routers controlled by MPLS and packet-optical equipment controlled by OpenFlow

Source (with permission): Ericsson, “Virtual Network System,” Elisa Bellagamba, MPLS + Ethernet Congress, Paris, February, 2012


Q & A

Michael HowardCo-founder & Principal Analyst, Carrier Networks

Infonetics Research+1 408.583.3357

[email protected]

THANK YOU


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Documents

IEEE ComSoc SCV Panel on Mobile Backhaul October 10, 2012 · Small Cells are a Big Deal IEEE ComSoc SCV Panel on Mobile Backhaul October 10, 2012 ... – Phase 3: 4G capacity upgrades,