www.OffshoreGrid.eu

IEE OffshoreGrid

Scenario Definitions and First Iteration Results

Jan De Decker, 3EJens Tambke, ForWind

Warsaw, April 22, 2010

www.OffshoreGrid.eu

Outline

• The IEE Study OffshoreGrid

• Input definitions and scenarios

• First results (Wind Power Time Series)

• Next steps

• Conclusions

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IEE OffshoreGrid

PROJECT DNA– Techno-economic study– Cost-benefit analysis of different design options– Budget 1.4 M€, 75% funded by EC– Coordinator 3E, 8 partners, consultancy & applied research

APPROACH PREPARATION

– Scenarios 2020 / 2030 (offshore & onshore wind, onshore reinforcements, energy economics, regulatory framework…) MODELING

– Cost optimisation of infrastructure– European power market model

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IEE OffshoreGrid – Timing & High-level Milestones

May ‘09 Jan ‘10 Jul ‘10 Jan ‘11 Jul ‘11 Oct ‘11

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Sep ‘09

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Input definitions and scenarios

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• Economical and regulatory model inputs

• Analysis of design drivers

• Offshore & onshore wind power scenarios

• Analysis of other marine developments

Deliverables to be found on www.OffshoreGrid.eu

www.OffshoreGrid.eu

Input scenarios

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Onshore and offshore wind scenarios for 2020 and 2030 [MW]

Onshore: 196602

Offshore: 43093

Total: 239695

Onshore: 267047

Offshore: 125787

Total: 392824

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CountryOffshoreGrid offshore

scenario2020 2030

Belgium 1 994 3 794Denmark 2 329 3 799

Estonia 0 1 600Finland 590 3 190France 2 510 4 914Germany 10 249 26 553Ireland 1 055 3 780

Latvia 0 900Lithuania 0 1 000Netherlands 4 622 12 122

Norway 957 9 667Poland 500 5 300Russia 0 500Sweden 2 983 10 522UK 15 303 38 146Total Northern EU

42 135 115 620

Total OffshoreGrid

43 093 125 787

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Input scenarios: Offshore Wind Power Scenarios

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Weather Model (WRF):

2-domain-setup:

• 1st domain resolution: 27x27 km²

• 2nd domain resolution: 9x9 km²

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Example results WRF model:

• 90m annual mean wind speeds (2007)

• Power production of Danish 200 MW wind farm

[m/s]

First results:Wind Power Time Series

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Total European On&Offshore Power 2030

267 GW inst. onshore, mean production: 64 GW

127 GW inst. offshore, mean production: 60 GW

[GW]

Hour of the Year [h]

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First results:Wind Power Time Series

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Po

wer

[G

W]

8th-28th March 2030

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First results:Wind Power Time Series

Extract - European On&Offshore Power 2030

Much correlation between onshore and offshore wind power Hour of the Year

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Impact of aggregation (via offshore grid) is very positive

Maximum downward variations [% of Pinst]

First results:Wind Power Time Series

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Correlation coefficients between countries (on- & offshore) [%]

First results:Wind Power Time Series

Apart from Hydropower in Norway, especially horizontal interconnection is interesting for balancing and to reduce total variability

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Next phase: Modeling

WP5:–Provide the technical design for an integrated offshore

transmission network–Provide a cost estimate for such a network or

networks

WP6:–Model = Flow based power market simulator (cf.

TradeWind)–Study different options regarding offshore grid design,

market conditions and regulatory framework–Assess various technical and economic impacts

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Modeling: Methodology

Prototype grids

– Compare costs & benefits of different designs:

• Base case

• Trade driven design

• Offshore wind driven design

• Mixed design

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Prototype grid designs – Wind Farms

Prototype grid designs – Wind Clusters

Prototype grid designs – Base case

Existing interconnectors & Planned interconnectors (decided+under construction)

Prototype grid designs – Trade driven

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Prototype grid designs – Meshed

Prototype grid designs – Hybrid

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Modeling: Methodology

Case studiesStart with case studies:

• Quicker valuable results for EC• Get deeper understanding of economics with double

use

Case study Dogger Bank

Evaluate findings in 2nd case study (probably UK-BE-NL)

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Conclusions

IEE OFFSHORE GRID– techno-economic study & policy framework – scientific view on offshore grids (with cost-benefit)

FIRST RESULTS– Wind Power Scenarios– Analysis of Wind Power Time Series– Other deliverables to be found on www.OffshoreGrid.eu

FINISHED BY JULY 2010– Modeling of case studies + first evaluation cost &

benefits

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Thank you for your attention!

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Jan De Decker Jan.DeDecker@3e.eu

www.3E.eu

VISIT US AT STAND 4328