IDENTITY AND EMPIRE: RUSSIAN HISTORICAL

PATTERNSby

Pal TAMAS [IS HAS, Budapest]

THE EASTERN BORDERS OF EUROPE

Antique interpretations- Tanais/Don16.-17.c. ” -Don, Volga,

Kama, Ob pieces1720cca. Tatichev/Stalenberg- Urals

Danzig-Triest line

EURASIA, 116 C.E.

EURASIA, 8TH CENTURY

EURASIA, 1288

BASIC GEOPOLITICAL UNITS OF RUSSIA

COMPOSITE BLOCKS:1.EURO-RUSSIA2.FAR-EASTERN RUSSIA3.URALO-SIBIR1-2. N-S 3.W-E.EXTERNAL GATES:a.Nord-East- Murmansk-Kaliningradb.South-West- Black Seac.South-East- Pacific coastd.Nord-East-chukotka, Kamchatka, Behring

tr.

RUSSIA, THE CONTINENTAL ISLAND

The Baltic-Black sea continental trait and the „limitrof” [V.Cimburskij]

After 1991: turninng back to Asia/Europe imperialistic view –no mans land?

The real center?: Ekaterinburg- Orenburg-Kemerovo

The II. Velikorossija [M.Iljin]

GEOPOLITICAL FRAMES

Where does Europe stop?What is the scope of the Euro-Atlantic

community?What is the present political meaning

of Euroasia, if any?How relevant is the term „Post-Soviet”

space at all?

„EASTERN” INTERPRETATIONS OF

EXPANSION/INTEGRATION 1. The Collecting of Lands Model2. The Moving of Borders

[Colonization Model]3. The Strategic Border Model4. The Restoration Model5. Le Monde Sans Frontiérs Model

Russia in the European Politics

Bipolarity of Europe- division on the Rhein

France/the Holy Empire…18.c. weakening Austria. From 1726

Russia in the European big politicsAU-SP-RU versus ENG-FR-PRUSS.1945- elimination of the Austrian-German

eastern core, Russia is the now the Eastern core- pushed out of the system, th west is unipolar from that time

Russia between Europa and Asia

A. RU subordinated

B. RU integrated

C.Western contratt.

D. marginalisation

Euroasian intermissions

I. 1726-1812 AU, 1807- Napoleon

Napoleon in moscow 1812

1813-15 anti-napoleon 1815-1853 holy all.

Crimean War 1853-56

1857-1905 Manshuria, Amur, Central Asia

II. Russia Entente1906-1917

Civil war, foreign intervention 1918-19

Early 1920ies- export of revolution

Late 1920ies, Locarno, bolsevizm out of Europe

SU, Mongolian protectorat, Japan war

III- Molotov-Ribbentropp, 1939-40

22.6.1941 Barbarossa

1944-45 Jalta

1985-1991 Perstrojka, army withr.

„near abroad” post 1988-91concepts

DISCOURSES ON EAST-WEST BORDERSRUSSIA EU

CONVERSATIVES

Realpolitik Traditional national identites

MODERNIZERS [LIBERALS?]

Ignorance of geopolitics

Realpolitik

THE NEW GAME

VULNERABILITY OF THE NEW ELITES AND STATES AS A CENTRAL PROBLEM

Primary factors:a. External [„Western”] geopolitical

interestsb. Programs of militant nation building and

consolidationc. Short term Russian geopolitical interestsd. Major socio-economic tensions in the new

states

THE MAJOR „FRONTLINE”

a.THE NEW MIDEAST – THE CAUCASUS as part of the region

b. Central Asia- as a borderland between China and the Moslim world

c. Vulnerability of energy supply lines for Europe

Different Russian-Western interests in the 3 regions. In „c” stong co-operation is needed, but in A. and b. not.

THE GEOPOLITICAL MATRIX

EXTERNAL GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIAN GEOPOLITICS

INTENSIVE NATIONBUILD

SOCIO-ECON. TENSIONS

BELORUS x xxx -x xx

UKRAINE xx xxx xx xx

ESTONIA# xxx x xxx x

LETTLAND# xxx x xxx x

LITHAUNIA# xxx x xx x

ARMENIA xxx x xx xx

GEORGIA xx xx xxx xxx

AZERBAIDZAN

xxx xx xx? x

TURMENIST. xx x x? x?

TADJIKISTAN xxx xx? x xxx

UZBEKISTAN xxx xx x? xxx?

KAZAHSTAN xxx xxx x x

KIRGISTAN xx xx xx xxx

MOLDOVA x? x? xx xxx

MATRIX OF LOCAL STRATEGIES

NAT.RESORCE EXPORT

LABOR EXPORT

„KORENIZACIJA”

SOCIAL HOMOGEN.

BELORUS x? -- x xxx

UKRAINE x xxx xx xx

ESTONIA# -- x xxx x

LETTLAND# -- x xxx x

LITHAUNIA# -- xx xx xx

ARMENIA -- xxx xx x

GEORGIA - xxx xxx x

AZERBAIDZAN

xxx xx xx xx

TURMENIST. xxx -- xxx xxx

TADJIKISTAN -- xx xx? x

UZBEKISTAN xx xx xxx xx

KAZAHSTAN xxx - xx xx

KIRGISISTAN x? xxx x? xx

MOLDOVA x? xxx x? xx

GEOPOLITICS-LOCAL STRATEGIES

EXPERTAL GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIAN GEOPOLITICS

INTENSIVE NATIONBUILD

SOCIO-ECON. TENSIONS

NAT.RESORCE EXPORT

AZERI, TURKMEN, KAZAH

KAZAHSTAN

LABOR EXPORT

ARMENIA UKRAINE GEORGIA GEORGIA, MOLDOVA KIRGISTAN

„KORENIZACIJA”

ESTONIA,LATVIA

GEORGIA, ESTONIA,LATVIA

GEORGIA, UZBEKISTAN

SOCIAL HOMOGEN.

TURKMEN BELORUS BELORUS

FUNDAMENTAL QUESTIONS

a. Who does generate Post-Soviet underdevelopment?

b. What are the tools of a low cost „energy imperialism” in comparison with the classical „imperialism of free trade” [Ru-EU?] in this region?

c. How do networks, webs, or circuits of foreign origin divide the new political class?

d. Are members of the Post-Soviet intelligentsia still modernization zealots?

CONCLUSIONS

A. HOTSPOTS:B. ZONES OF EASY COMPROMISES:C. CONFLICT AVOIDING STRATEGIES for

the local CIS elites: a. no, or very few symbolic actions b. selective decisions, networks with

different vectors c. relative, or step-by-step „energy

independence” d.readyness to compromises in local

social conflicts

FUTURE ALTERNATIVE RU-EU SCENARIOS

1. Neo-Finlandization2. „Baltization”3. Mexicanization”4. Selective-competitive co-operation