Identifying S&T and innovation priorities for the sector of natural resources in Russia Sergey Shashnov Anna Sokolova National Research University ‘Higher

Identifying S&T and innovation priorities Identifying S&T and innovation priorities for the sector of natural resources in Russiafor the sector of natural resources in Russia

Sergey ShashnovAnna Sokolova

National Research University ‘Higher School of Economics’

Russia

The 4th International Seville Conference onFuture-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)

12 & 13 May 2011

Identifying S&T and innovation priorities for the sector of natural resources in RussiaIdentifying S&T and innovation priorities for the sector of natural resources in Russia

Russian Federation accumulates over one third of the world stock of natural gas, coal and iron ore, and about one tenth of oil stock

Russian water resources form 20% of the world water stock

Share of mining operations exceeds 20% from the total production output

Share of raw mineral complex production in total exports is almost 80%

Hydro power generation - 20%

Scale of Russian natural resources complex Scale of Russian natural resources complex and its place in the economyand its place in the economy


Around 40 million people live in unfavorable natural conditions, 1 million people live in

places with critical pollution level

Specific emission indicators exceed similar foreign indicators by several times

High specific water-holding capacity of NGP (exceeds level of foreign countries by 2-3

times)

High rate of water resources loss (10% of the total volume)

Low oil extraction factor (33%)

Climate changes and natural emergency situations increase

Problems and challenges Problems and challenges


4

National S&T Foresight: 2025

National S&T Foresight: 2030

Innovation priorities for the Russian complex of

natural resources

Recommendations

for Russian S&T and innovation

policy in the field of natural resources

General scheme of foresight projects to identify S&T&I priorities General scheme of foresight projects to identify S&T&I priorities for the sector of natural resources for the sector of natural resources

Identification of the most important and developed areas in

the long-run perspective

Evaluation of required resources

and possible innovation projects

for these areas

Identification of crucial activity areas for the governance system in the field

of natural resources

-> rational use of natural resources

-> rational use of natural resources


National S&T Foresight: 2025National S&T Foresight: 2025

Over 2000 experts from 40 regions

Different expert procedures (Delphi as a central method)

On the basis of National S&T priorities and Critical technologies: - 9 S&T priorities - 56 thematic areas


Rational use of natural resourcesRational use of natural resources

Importance for Russia Possible implementation timeframes Russia’s position vis-à-vis world leaders Support measures Contribution to economic growth and increased competitiveness, role in dealing with major social challenges

Main criteria for topics evaluation: Ultradeep drilling

technologies(up to 15 km)

Technologies for ecologically safe mining and oil

and gas extraction

Technologies for estimating

resources and forecasting

(lithosphere and biosphere)

Technologies for processing and

utilizing anthropogenic substances and

wastes

Technologies for environmental monitoring and

forecasting (atmosphere and

hydrosphere)

Technologies for risk and damage

containment after natural and

technogenous disasters

Thematic areas

56 Topics


Rational use of natural resources: the most important topicsRational use of natural resources: the most important topicsImportance index

Time of realization2014 2016 2019

Technologies of accelerated and effective restoration of disturbed acres,

landscapes and biodiversity

Technologies of environmentally safe recycling and disposal of

household and industrial waste

Geoinformation database on forest fires in Russia, which

enables to assess the number of fires and burnt areas in real-

time mode

Development of geophysical methods of oil and gas prospecting in

structurally complex environment

Technologies of high-efficient cleaning of polluted territories using plants and

biomaterials

2018

98

97

96

95

94


National S&T Foresight: 2030National S&T Foresight: 2030Rational use of natural resourcesRational use of natural resources

Prevention and liquidation of environmental pollution, monitoring and forecasting of the environment conditions

Technologies for processing and utilizing

anthropogenic substances and wastes

Prevention and liquidation of emergencies related to natural and technogene emergencies

Thematic areas

Technology groups

include the most important and

developed topics of S&T Foresight: 2025

Integrated more general areas on the basis of the areas of S&T Foresight:

2025

Main criteria for groups evaluation: Current level of Russian R&D Major results of innovation projects based on relevant R&D Required resources (personnel, funds, equipment) Market potential of products which can be developed on the basis of relevant R&D Feasibility of implementing major innovation projects in Russia

Diagnosing current state of

environment and dangerous anthropogenic

systems

Remote monitoring techniques based on space satellite systems


Rational use of natural resources: the most Rational use of natural resources: the most developeddeveloped groups groupsIndex of R&D level

Cumulative effect1.7 1.8 2

Technologies for rapid and effective recovery of defective soil,landscape and biodiversity

Remote monitoring techniques based on space

satellite systems

Diagnosing current state of environment and dangerous

anthropogenic systems

Technologies for early detection of conditions

contributing to emergence of extreme environmental

situations, natural or anthropogenic

Processes of selective

disintegration

1.9

67

62

57

52

1.61.5


Thematic area: Prevention and liquidation of environmental pollution, monitoring and forecasting of the

environment conditions

Sca

le o

f m

arke

ts

Feasibility of innovation projects

Perspective markets of large-scale demand

Perspective markets of small-scale demand

Evaluation of feasibility of innovation projects & scale of marketsEvaluation of feasibility of innovation projects & scale of markets


Major results of National S&T Foresight: 2030Major results of National S&T Foresight: 2030

List of markets and segments, where Russia can improve its

positions

Detailed description of chosen groups

Estimation of resources and risks

Technology roadmaps for the most perspective product groups

The most important innovation projects

The most important research projects


Innovation priorities for the Russian complex of Innovation priorities for the Russian complex of natural resourcesnatural resources

Water resources

Mineral resources

Environment

Information base Expert procedures

Analysis of global priorities

Analysis of socio- economic

objectives

Statistics

Analysis of problems

Surveys

Interviews

Workshops

SCOPE:


General project schemeGeneral project schemeInformation

baseExpert

procedures

Main problems and challenges in management system of Russian complex of

natural resources and its sectors

Innovation priorities for the Russian Innovation priorities for the Russian complex of natural resourcescomplex of natural resources

Suggestions on amendments in strategic documents of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Ecology of the Russian

Federation

…. …. ….Major tasks

Low efficiency of authority separation system at all levels of

water resources management

Need for gradual modernization and

harmonization of the existing system of rate fixing according to the

rates of the EU and WTO

Designing an effective system of scientific

support of measures aimed at biodiversity preservation and its

sustainable use

Development of risk management tools and assessment of decisions

efficiency

Creating and development of an

advisory system on using and conservation of land

resources by analogy with successful foreign

prototypes

Development of water and water-

retaining production market adjusted for

ecological safety criteria


General project scheme: exampleGeneral project scheme: exampleMain problems and challenges in management system of Russian

complex of natural resources and its sectors

Innovation priorities for the Russian Innovation priorities for the Russian complex of natural resourcescomplex of natural resources

Suggestions on amendments in strategic documents of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Ecology of

the Russian Federation

…. …. ….Major tasks

The problem: Absence of an effective administrative mechanism for elimination of critical volume of cumulative ecological damage

The problem: …..……………………….

The priority: Formation a complex administrative mechanism for elimination of critical volume of cumulative ecological damage

The task: Development of a legal mechanism of responsibility for cumulative ecological damage, order of its assessment and compensation procedures

Over 40

Over 100

It is suggested to make amendments in Ecological Doctrine of the Russian Federation (into key factors of Russian environment degradation, main principles of state ecological policy, list of strategic approaches of natural environment restoration, other sections), map of a project “ Designing new ecological life standards” (adding a new target code, changing of anticipated results), and corresponding amendments in Civil Code of the Russian Federation, part 1, 30.11.1994 № 51 federal law, part 2, 26.01.1996 № 14, Land Code of the Russian Federation, 25 October 2001 № 136, federal law “About environmental protection”,10 January 2002 №7

The task: …..………………….


Innovation prioritiesInnovation priorities for the Russian complex of natural resources: for the Russian complex of natural resources: example for area of example for area of ««industrial waste and cumulative ecological damage»

• сreation of mechanisms for elimination of cumulative ecological damage• improvement of law enforcement system and law enforcement practice• designing effective economy mechanisms for stimulating enterprises to decrease waste formation• development of effective intersectoral cooperation


SummarySummary


Thank you for your attention!

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Identifying S&T and innovation priorities for the sector of natural resources in Russia Sergey Shashnov Anna Sokolova National Research University ‘Higher