Identifying and structuring management objectivespeople.oregonstate.edu/~peterjam/SDM_AFS_2011... · The importance of identifying and structuring objectives common sticking point

Identifying and structuring Identifying and structuring management objectivesmanagement objectives

James Peterson, OR CFWRUJames Peterson, OR CFWRU

Competing Competing objectivesobjectives-- limited resourceslimited resources

Conflicting Conflicting objectivesobjectives-- gain in one = loss in anothergain in one = loss in another

Linked Linked objectivesobjectives-- one must be fulfilled to full one must be fulfilled to full

anotheranother

Hidden objectivesHidden objectives-- important but unstatedimportant but unstated

Types of ObjectivesTypes of Objectives

Case study: Bobwhite Case study: Bobwhite Quail InitiativeQuail Initiative

GA DNR program for improving quail populations on private GA DNR program for improving quail populations on private landslandsInitial focus, maximum effort in 3 countiesInitial focus, maximum effort in 3 counties

Increase quail Increase quail populationspopulations

IncreaseIncreasecarryingcarryingcapacitycapacity

DecreaseDecreasenaturalnaturalmortalitymortality

IncreaseIncreasehabitathabitat

PredatorPredatorcontrolcontrol

SupplementalSupplementalFeedingFeeding(food plots)(food plots)

Stated objective:Stated objective:

Why do we need to identify and structure objectives?Why do we need to identify and structure objectives?

Minimizes misunderstandingMinimizes misunderstandingFocuses efforts things that matter most to the decisionFocuses efforts things that matter most to the decision--makermaker

Increase quail Increase quail populationspopulations

IncreaseIncreasecarryingcarryingcapacitycapacity


DecreaseDecreasenaturalnaturalmortalitymortality

PredatorPredatorcontrolcontrol

SupplementalSupplementalfeedingfeeding

MaximizeMaximizeharmonyharmony

MakeMakeconstituentsconstituentshappyhappy


MakeMakebossbosshappyhappy

BiologistsBiologists Administrators/PoliticiansAdministrators/Politicians

An alternative perspectiveAn alternative perspective

Result: eliminate monitoring, expand program to set aside lands Result: eliminate monitoring, expand program to set aside lands additional countiesadditional counties

The The importance of identifying and structuring objectivesimportance of identifying and structuring objectivesccommon ommon sticking pointsticking point

Confusing fundamental and mean objectivesConfusing fundamental and mean objectives

Stated Stated (fundamental) objective of stream fishery manager(fundamental) objective of stream fishery manager::Natural Hydrologic RegimeNatural Hydrologic Regime

TimeTime

Wat

er le

vel

Wat

er le

vel

I I regimesregimes

I I regimesregimes

!! ????

Possible outcome:Possible outcome: The flow regime is natural butThe flow regime is natural but……..all the fish are deadall the fish are dead

Would the fishery managers be happy with the outcome???Would the fishery managers be happy with the outcome???

Maximize nativeMaximize nativeffish biodiversityish biodiversity

Maintain natural Maintain natural hydrologic regimehydrologic regime

Maximize habitatMaximize habitatavailabilityavailability

Means Means objectives objectives (sometimes) help(sometimes) helprealize the fundamental objectiverealize the fundamental objective

Means objectives Means objectives often are hypotheses often are hypotheses aboutaboutsystem dynamics system dynamics

Adaptive Adaptive resource resource

managementmanagementConflictConflictNoNo

Routine Routine management management

sciencescience

Negotiation, Negotiation, compromisecompromiseYesYes

YesYesNoNo

Agreement on science?Agreement on science?(how do we get there)(how do we get there)

Agreement on management objectives?Agreement on management objectives?(where do we go)(where do we go)

PoliticsPolitics BiologyBiology

The importance of identifying and structuring objectivesThe importance of identifying and structuring objectives

Identifying Identifying Objectives Objectives

Create a list of objectivesCreate a list of objectivesPersonal/organization objectivesPersonal/organization objectivesWhat do you value?What do you value?What do you want?What do you want?What should you want?What should you want?

Identify goals and constraintsIdentify goals and constraintsWhat are your ultimate aspirations? What are your ultimate aspirations? What are the external limits to achieving your goals?What are the external limits to achieving your goals?

Do not let data or information availability limit your objectives!

More common problemsMore common problems

Please leave yourmodel at the door

Dismissing potential Dismissing potential objectives due to objectives due to perceived conflictsperceived conflicts

Dismissing potential Dismissing potential objectives due to objectives due to perceived lack of perceived lack of information or information or complexitycomplexity

Objectives Jargon Objectives Jargon

Maximize = more of somethingMaximize = more of something

Minimize = less of somethingMinimize = less of something

Three very important phrasesThree very important phrases

Structuring Structuring objectivesobjectivesIdentify and organizing fundamental and means objectives.Identify and organizing fundamental and means objectives.

Fundamental objectives:Fundamental objectives: what the decisionwhat the decision--maker really maker really wants to accomplish. wants to accomplish.

Means objectivesMeans objectives the things that need to be the things that need to be accomplished to realize the fundamental objectiveaccomplished to realize the fundamental objective

Why Is That Important?Why Is That Important?

How can you / I achieve that?How can you / I achieve that?

What do you / I mean by that?What do you / I mean by that?

>>>>>> Clarity >>>>>> Clarity is is essential <<<<<<<essential <<<<<<<

Identify Identify and separate and separate fundamentalfundamental and and meansmeans objectivesobjectives

Means objectives networkMeans objectives network

MinimizeMinimizeextinction riskextinction risk

MaximizeMaximizespatialspatial

distributiondistribution


MinimizeMinimizemortalitymortality

Why is that Why is that important?important?

FundamentalFundamentalobjectivesobjectives

How could I How could I achieve this?achieve this?

MeansMeansobjectivesobjectives

ExoticExoticcontrolcontrol

EstablishEstablishcorridorscorridors

Structuring Structuring objectivesobjectives

The values of Scrooge The values of Scrooge McDuckMcDuck

McDuckMcDuck’’ss list of objectiveslist of objectives

Have moreHave moremoneymoney

Make more Make more moneymoney

Spend lessSpend lessmoneymoney

Get Get second jobsecond job

Buy cheaperBuy cheaperbrandsbrands

InvestInvestin stocksin stocks





McDuckMcDuck’’ss Means objectives networkMeans objectives network

Have moreHave moremoneymoney

Make more Make more moneymoney

Spend lessSpend lessmoneymoney

Get Get second jobsecond job

Buy cheaperBuy cheaperbrandsbrands



InvestInvestin stocksin stocks



Recap: Identifying and Structuring Objectives Recap: Identifying and Structuring Objectives

Create a list of objectivesCreate a list of objectivesPersonal objectivesPersonal objectivesStrategic objectivesStrategic objectives

Identify goals and constraintsIdentify goals and constraints

Created objectives networkCreated objectives network

Identified important objectives (outcomes)Identified important objectives (outcomes)

Reminder: Reminder: Linking decisions to Linking decisions to objectivesobjectives

CurrentCurrentspeciesspeciesstatusstatus

ManagementManagementactionaction OutcomeOutcome

Current Current populationpopulation

sizesize

Do Do somethingsomething

Future Future populationpopulation

sizesize

FutureFuturepopulationpopulation

sizesize

Do Do somethingsomething

Quantifying Quantifying outcomes (utilities)outcomes (utilities)

For single objective, relatively easyFor single objective, relatively easyNumber of animals harvestedNumber of animals harvestedProbability of persistenceProbability of persistencePopulation sizePopulation sizeNumber of patches occupied Number of patches occupied

Quantifying Quantifying outcomes (utilities)outcomes (utilities)

Multiple objectives are much more difficultMultiple objectives are much more difficult

Conflicting objectivesConflicting objectives

Large Large number of approachesnumber of approaches

No single best method, No single best method, stakeholder inputstakeholder input

Try Try to value each objective and come up with an to value each objective and come up with an overall objective containing both overall objective containing both valuesvalues

Dealing Dealing with conflicting objectiveswith conflicting objectives

Utility = species A + species BUtility = species A + species B

Popu

latio

n si

ze s

peci

es A

Popu

latio

n si

ze s

peci

es A

Grassland habitatGrassland habitat

optimumoptimum

Popu

latio

n si

ze s

peci

es B

Popu

latio

n si

ze s

peci

es B

Management decision: Management decision: how much grassland habitat to maintainhow much grassland habitat to maintain

Problem: Problem: If objectives are treated as equalIf objectives are treated as equal, , the the stronger stronger biological relationship will biological relationship will dominatedominate

Pick Pick 1 objective as primary and constrain to 1 objective as primary and constrain to acceptable values of secondacceptable values of second

Dealing Dealing with conflicting objectiveswith conflicting objectives

Using a constraint to define the minimumUsing a constraint to define the minimumaallowable size for species Allowable size for species A

Popu

latio

n si

ze s

peci

es A

Popu

latio

n si

ze s

peci

es A

Grassland habitatGrassland habitat

Popu

latio

n si

ze s

peci

es B

Popu

latio

n si

ze s

peci

es B

Management decision: Management decision: how much grassland habitat to maintainhow much grassland habitat to maintain

Defining Measurement ScalesDefining Measurement Scales

ObjectiveObjective AttributeAttributeMinimize costsMinimize costs $$$$$$

Maximize population sizeMaximize population size Number Number animalsanimals

Maximize occupancy rateMaximize occupancy rate ProbabilityProbability

Minimize extinction probabilityMinimize extinction probability ProbabilityProbability

Maximize user satisfactionMaximize user satisfaction ??????

CostCostManagementManagementNoNoManagementManagementgaingainMarginalMarginal --==

Accounting for the cost of managementAccounting for the cost of management

Estimated Population SizeEstimated Population SizeDecision Decision

alternativealternativeNo No

managementmanagement AlternativeAlternative CostCost Marginal gainMarginal gainDo nothingDo nothing 100100 100100 00 --

Stock fishStock fish 100100 150150 100100 (150 (150 –– 100)/100 = 0.5100)/100 = 0.5

Improve habitatImprove habitat 100100 200200 250250 (200 (200 –– 100)/250 = 0.4100)/250 = 0.4

Establish priorities among the objectives by making Establish priorities among the objectives by making a series based on a series based on pairwisepairwise comparisons. comparisons.

Individually rank importance or value of outcomesIndividually rank importance or value of outcomes

MultiMulti--criteria objectives criteria objectives

Endangered species Endangered species recoveryrecovery

1.0001.000

Costs of Costs of managementmanagement

0.3330.333

Population Population sizesize

0.3330.333

Public Public satisfactionsatisfaction

0.3330.333

Equal valueEqual value

Establish priorities among the objectives by making Establish priorities among the objectives by making a series based on a series based on pairwisepairwise comparisons. comparisons.

Individually rank importance or value of outcomesIndividually rank importance or value of outcomes

MultiMulti--criteria objective criteria objective

Endangered species Endangered species recoveryrecovery

1.01.0

Costs of Costs of managementmanagement

0.30.3

Population Population sizesize0.50.5

Public Public satisfactionsatisfaction

0.20.2

Unequal valueUnequal value

Case study: Largemouth bass management in GeorgiaCase study: Largemouth bass management in Georgia(Peterson and Evans 2002)(Peterson and Evans 2002)

Largemouth bass Largemouth bass angler satisfactionangler satisfaction

ProvideProvideconsistentconsistentanglinganglingopportunities opportunities (stable population)(stable population)

Maximize Maximize tournamenttournamentangler angler satisfactionsatisfaction

Maximize Maximize number of number of creelable creelable largemouth basslargemouth bass

(number of creelable LMB)(number of creelable LMB)(number of large LMB)(number of large LMB)

MaximizeMaximizerecreationalrecreationalangler angler satisfactionsatisfaction

Maximize Maximize number number of large fish of large fish

(quantifiable objectives = outcomes)(quantifiable objectives = outcomes)

Tournament anglers

Recreational anglers

Number of respondents 54 43

Rank in order of importance to you the following qualities of a bass fishery (3= most important, 1 = least)1.

Consistency in the fishery year after year

2.55 2.59

More bass above the length limit, but fewer very large bass

1.81 1.66

More large bass, but fewer bass overall

1.64 1.74



1.001.00

TournamentTournamentangler angler

satisfactionsatisfaction0.5570.557

RecreationalRecreationalangler angler


WestPoint Angler SurveyWestPoint Angler Survey

% tournament anglers = 54/(54+43) = 55.7% tournament anglers = 54/(54+43) = 55.7

% tournament anglers = 43/(54+43) = 44.3% tournament anglers = 43/(54+43) = 44.3

Tournament anglers

Recreational anglers

Number of respondents 54 43

Rank in order of importance to you the following qualities of a bass fishery (3= most important, 1 = least)1.

Consistency in the fishery year after year

2.55 2.59

More bass above the length limit, but fewer very large bass

1.81 1.66

More large bass, but fewer bass overall

1.64 1.74



1.001.00

TournamentTournamentangler angler




WestPoint Angler SurveyWestPoint Angler Survey

stable stable ppopulationopulation

0.4250.425

#creelable #creelable LMBLMB0.3020.302

# # large large LMBLMB0.2730.273 stable stable

populationpopulation#creelable #creelable

LMBLMB# # large large LMBLMB

Quantifying the outcome of individual objectivesQuantifying the outcome of individual objectivesRanking individual of outcomes for each objectiveRanking individual of outcomes for each objective

Attribute scaleAttribute scale# large LMB# large LMB # creelable LMB# creelable LMB Population stabilityPopulation stability

OutcomeOutcome RankRank OutcomeOutcome RankRank OutcomeOutcome RankRankLowLow 11 LowLow 11 LowLow 11

MediumMedium 22 MediumMedium 22 MediumMedium 22HighHigh 33 HighHigh 33 HighHigh 33



stable stable ppopulationopulation

0.4250.425

#creelable #creelable LMBLMB0.3020.302

# # large large LMBLMB0.2730.273

How would recreational anglers value an outcome?How would recreational anglers value an outcome?

Assume Assume LowLow # LMB (# LMB (rank = 1rank = 1))Medium Medium # creelable # creelable LMB LMB (rank= 2)(rank= 2)High population stability High population stability (rank = 3)(rank = 3)

Recreational angler satisfaction Recreational angler satisfaction scorescore

(1* 0.273) (1* 0.273) + + (2*0.032) (2*0.032) + + (3*0.425(3*0.425))

= 1.612 = 1.612

MultiMulti--criteria objectivescriteria objectives

Worst Worst outcomeoutcome

BestBestoutcomeoutcome

Ranking combinations of outcomes for each objectiveRanking combinations of outcomes for each objective

# large LMB# large LMB # creelable LMB# creelable LMBPopulation Population

stabilitystability RankRankLowLow LowLow LowLow 11LowLow LowLow MediumMediumLowLow LowLow HighHighLowLow MediumMedium LowLowLowLow MediumMedium MediumMediumLowLow MediumMedium HighHighLowLow HighHigh LowLowLowLow HighHigh MediumMediumLowLow HighHigh HighHigh

MediumMedium LowLow LowLowMediumMedium LowLow MediumMediumMediumMedium LowLow HighHighMediumMedium MediumMedium LowLowMediumMedium MediumMedium MediumMediumMediumMedium MediumMedium HighHighMediumMedium HighHigh LowLowMediumMedium HighHigh MediumMediumMediumMedium HighHigh HighHigh

HighHigh LowLow LowLowHighHigh LowLow MediumMediumHighHigh LowLow HighHighHighHigh MediumMedium LowLowHighHigh MediumMedium MediumMediumHighHigh MediumMedium HighHighHighHigh HighHigh LowLowHighHigh HighHigh MediumMediumHighHigh HighHigh HighHigh 2727

Where do we get the values/ranking?Where do we get the values/ranking?

SurveysSurveys

Stakeholder meetingsStakeholder meetingsCConsensusonsensusMajority voteMajority vote

Case study: R.L. Harris DamCase study: R.L. Harris Dam(Elise Irwin, ALCFWRU)(Elise Irwin, ALCFWRU)

What if stakeholders canWhat if stakeholders can’’t agree on the values?t agree on the values?

Competing objectives!Competing objectives!

ObjectivesObjectives

1.1. Maximize diversity and abundance of native Maximize diversity and abundance of native fauna and florafauna and flora

2.2. Minimize bank erosion downstream from Minimize bank erosion downstream from HarrisHarris

3.3. Maximize water levels in the reservoirMaximize water levels in the reservoir4.4. Maximize boating and angling opportunities Maximize boating and angling opportunities

downstream from Harrisdownstream from Harris

Stakeholders could not agree on objective valuation or Stakeholders could not agree on objective valuation or rankingsrankings

SolutionSolution

Amount of Amount of bank erosion bank erosion downstream downstream

water levels inwater levels inthe reservoirthe reservoir

Number of nativeNumber of nativefishesfishes

DecisionDecisionDam operation plan ADam operation plan ADam operation plan BDam operation plan BDam operation plan CDam operation plan C

Number of Number of DownstreamDownstreamfloat daysfloat days

Show the stakeholders the individual estimated effects of eachShow the stakeholders the individual estimated effects of eachddam operation planam operation plan

One burning question:One burning question:DoesnDoesn’’t the way we value outcomes affect our t the way we value outcomes affect our decision?decision?

Yes, but Yes, but ……....

There are methods for evaluating the sensitivity of There are methods for evaluating the sensitivity of decisions to objective valuationdecisions to objective valuation

--indifference curvesindifference curves

We will learn more about these laterWe will learn more about these later

On to the case studyOn to the case study…………....Identify the decision Identify the decision

situation and objectivessituation and objectives

Identify the management alternativesIdentify the management alternatives

Decompose and model the problemDecompose and model the problem

Identify the best alternativeIdentify the best alternative

Perform sensitivity analysisPerform sensitivity analysis

Is further Is further analysis needed?analysis needed?

Implement the best alternativeImplement the best alternative

NONO

YESYES

From From ClemenClemen and Reilly 2001and Reilly 2001

Documents

Identifying and structuring management objectivespeople.oregonstate.edu/~peterjam/SDM_AFS_2011... · The importance of identifying and structuring objectives common sticking point