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October 2018, IDC #AP44343418

IDC FutureScape

IDC FutureScape: Worldwide Education 2019 Top 10Predictions

Jan Alexa Gerald Wang Tim Brunt Louise FrancisKenneth Liew Akira Muranishi Linn Huang Bryan MaShawn P. McCarthy Chris Pennell

IDC FUTURESCAPE FIGURE

FIGURE 1

IDC FutureScape: Worldwide Education 2019 Top 10 Predictions

Note: Marker number refers only to the order the prediction appears in the report and does not indicate rank or importance, unless

otherwise noted in the Executive Summary.

Source: IDC, 2018

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Educating today's digital natives — including today's millennials and Generation Z — requires a new

paradigm of pedagogy. In fact, Marc Prensky, inventor of the term "digital natives," hypothesized that

the massive proliferation of digital technology globally in the last two decades has changed the way

students deliberate and assimilate information, making it hard for them to excel academically if schools

still use the outmoded pedagogy methods of days gone by. Therefore, students raised in a digital,

media-saturated ecosystem require media-rich digital content to learn effectively.

This causes conflicts between digital natives and the non–digital natives. In general, assuming

contexts where the socioeconomic ecosystem is not isolated from digital assimilation, it is noted that,

while non-digital natives struggle to assimilate their skills into an increasingly technology-driven world,

the younger generation of digital natives tend to demonstrate fluent competencies in the language of

computers, videos, video games, social media, and other sites on the internet.

IDC's Worldwide Education 2019 Top 10 Predictions are:

Prediction 1: By 2022, 10% of student digital IDs will include blockchain to improve campus-wide physical access security and online verification and access to student administrative,

academic, and medical records.

Prediction 2: By 2020, 30% of education ministries and institutions globally will leverage AI monitoring tools to safety-proof digital classrooms and hold online aggressors and criminal

behaviors accountable.

Prediction 3: By 2023, virtual and immersive blended-learning solutions will be deployed

through AR/VR to transform learning, interactions, and collaborations within 20% of education

institutions internationally.

Prediction 4: By 2019, student-driven learning approaches will be leveraged by 35% of institutions globally to enable 360-degree personalized curricula development that is both

student-led and AI-enabled.

Prediction 5: By 2023, flipped classrooms and peer learning will drive the development of next-generation digital classrooms in 50% of institutions globally, where such learning techniques

are increasingly practiced.

Prediction 6: By 2022, 25% of education institutions worldwide will invest in teacher-parent

and teacher-student portals to manage "out-of-classroom" interactions and engagements,

notably at pre-university levels.

Prediction 7: By 2019, increasingly digitized education resources, cloud-based applications,and lightweight hardware devices will transform 30% of classrooms globally into next-

generation virtual classrooms.

Prediction 8: By 2021, tertiary institutions without digital learning and online accreditation will continually lose 5% of their student enrolment numbers annually to massive open online

course (MOOC) platforms.

Prediction 9: By 2022, the federated cloud offerings supported by governments will be used by

20% of universities worldwide, both within participating universities and across other tertiary

institutions.

Prediction 10: By 2020, 50% of governments will address skill-set shortages due to DX through digital curriculum emphasis in K-12 and tertiary levels, and through lifelong learning

initiatives for existing workforce.

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This IDC FutureScape provides worldwide education 2019 top 10 predictions.

"An education IT initiative is not about how many cutting-edge devices or intelligent solutions will be in

next year's budget. The focus should be on discovering and attaining strategic educational outcomes,

all enabled by digital innovations. Solutions that boost new teaching pedagogies, enhance student

learning, and include growing stakeholder involvement such as parents or alumni participation, for

instance, will increasingly be pursued," notes Gerald Wang, Head, Asia/Pacific Public Sector, IDC.

"Education institutions need to fully understand outcomes-based deliberations when using new digital

technologies. This is because an industry-ready workforce of the future is one that requires change-

resilient agile mindsets that constantly seek up-skilling and up-tooling developments while balancing

independent and collaborative learning habits in equal measure."

IDC FUTURESCAPE PREDICTIONS

Summary of External Drivers

The Race to Innovate: Speed of change, delivery, and operations separates thrivers and

survivors

Platforms, Platforms, Platforms: Industry competes for innovation at scale

Sense, Compute, Actuate: Turning data into value

Emerging Autonomy: Learning to live with AI

Cyber Insecurity: Theft, cyberattack, negligence create a crisis of digital trust

Rising Consumer Expectations: More convenience, customization, and control

The Future of Work: Bridging the digital talent gap

Predictions: Impact on Technology Buyers

Prediction 1: By 2022, 10% of student digital IDs will include blockchain to improve campus-wide physical access security and online verification and access to student administrative, academic, and medical records

The need to protect student data will drive the adoption of new technologies, including blockchain, by

educational authorities. As smart campuses or smart K-12 facilities expand, they will enable more use

cases for student identification and student identification cards that will serve multiple functions, from

providing access to various on- and off-campus facilities to providing a payment vehicle for

bookstores, food services, and even transportation. As student IDs become more powerful and

flexible, the necessity of more comprehensive security will be felt more acutely by the stakeholders.

These digital IDs need not be tied to just a university's IT system. Platforms such as Blockstack and

uPort allow participants to provide their ID confirmation across the internet. These can help confirm

student participation in a wide variety of learning apps and services, such as Guild (a decentralized

and open source blogging app through blockchain) or Afia (a platform to help individuals manage their

private health records through blockchain). Companies such as Indorse are using blockchain to verify

sets of skill badges to support education and training in specific skill sets. Participants can upload

claims with a link to verification that another viewer can use to verify the claim. These types of ID

systems can be tied to banking and payment systems, allowing students to establish a credit history,

work experience details, and more, which are also especially important for displaced persons (due to

war, natural disaster, etc.) who desire to pursue new digital skill sets, for instance.

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"The blockchain-based solutions will become part of the wider ecosystem of cybersecurity solutions for

some institutions, but not for all. The adoption rate is likely to be uneven. Educational organizations

with blockchain experience from some unrelated endeavor will likely become first adopters, especially

those that have blockchain as part of their curricula, as academic stakeholders might weigh into the

discussion of how to best defend the integrity of student records. Thus, the likely first adopters will

recruit from research-intensive education institutions.

Associated Drivers



survivors


IT Impact

Blockchain becomes more computation-intensive as time passes. When tens of thousands of students are plugged into the blockchain for their transactions, enough computing power must

be dedicated to the solution, whether it is locally hosted or cloud-based.

In many cases, the IT departments of educational institutions will treat blockchain like a piece of middleware. It can be called to create a time/transaction/accuracy calculation and stamp

that can be integrated into multiple types of connections and transactions.

Institutions will eventually reduce their reliance on trusted third-party authorities for

transactional authenticity (e.g., printed IDs, coins, banking systems, loan institutions), which serve to verify identities and contract terms. The need for "middlemen" is reduced as the

blockchain system handles the transaction, tied to a smart contract.

Guidance

Perform a thorough ex ante analysis of impact that adoption will have on related systems

(especially on compute requirements) before rushing into implementation.

Institutions should consider conducting a series of pilot programs with a variety of systems integrators and technology providers (Hyperledger, Ethereum, Monax, etc.) This will help them identify the platform that is best for their needs. That choice will likely provide their foundation

for other blockchain solutions as the technology expands.

Evaluate whether current security features in student identification match the increasing

importance of student data and the increasing harm that misuse could bring.

Prediction 2: By 2020, 30% of education ministries and institutions globally will leverage AI monitoring tools to safety-proof digital classrooms and hold online aggressors and criminal behaviors accountable

Education institutions are now expected to cater to a student population that uses multiple devices for

interactions with peers and lecturers — anywhere and anytime. These students access digital content

provisioned by lecturers and universities, as well as content available on social media platforms. Such

mobile, media-rich, and more collaborative environments are reflected in the number of institutions

globally that are actively considering mobility projects.

However, with any rise in "attack surface" brought about by newly digitized and collaborative

environments, the risks to privacy and security grow in parallel. Among the major cybersecurity threats

facing the education sector is the increasing number of cyberattacks that aim to steal personal

information, extort data for money, or disrupt schools' ability to operate. These can come in the form of

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phishing, ransomware, and DDoS attacks, for instance. The constant growth of elearning and online

assessment applications in the cloud such as Google Apps for Education, Discovery Education,

Edmodo, and massive open online systems (MOOCs), means that identity and access management

(IAM) systems will play an even more significant role in education authentication and security policies.

IDC notes that this is not just a technology issue. In fact, there is evidence of education institutions

training their students in the "rules of engagement" of personal privacy and security. Programs that

promote self-censorship and security responsibility are key. While education IT departments

concentrate on ensuring robust server security and good connectivity, there is growing focus on

enabling the transfer of personal device security and management responsibilities to the student, as

well as promoting self-censorship practices and personal digital responsibility. More and more schools

today are reporting that their school's strategies include educating students to develop positive, ethical

behavior in cyberspace as well as putting in place technologies and policies that support a safe and

secure online environment for students.

Associated Drivers




IT Impact

The need to leverage a robust IAM system appears. Education institutions can further improve

the operational and security productivity of online education initiatives.

Education institutions must enable effective student data management governance policies and solutions to manage the free movement of student data that is made available to the right

person, at the right time.

Guidance

Safety-proof online education initiatives. This relates to having adequate solutions and policies in place to ensure education institutions are digitally secure (e.g., against online scams) and

digitally safe (e.g., against cyberbullying).

Ensure security and data governance is embedded in IT road maps and include building a cyber-aware culture. Schools should map out the threat landscape and prioritize preventive

and restorative cybersecurity investments where it matters most.

Prediction 3: By 2023, virtual and immersive blended-learning solutions will be deployed through AR/VR to transform learning, interactions, and collaborations within 20% of education institutions internationally

Many leading education institutions support the change in education delivery — one that shifts away

from traditional classroom-based training toward more intuitive elearning and virtual instructor-led

training (ILT), powered by anytime-anywhere remote mobile access as well as multimedia-based and

immersive training solutions (e.g., AR/VR). To do so, educators must be trained to be effective in the

use of digital technologies for the development of the digital curriculum. However, the biggest

challenge isn't in training on the creation of digital content; it is in establishing to educators the correct

value proposition of electronic training over some other traditional pedagogy delivery.

Education now goes beyond the classroom walls, into the community and beyond, and blended

learning models through AR/VR technologies offer seamless access to mobile, virtual, and digital

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classroom resources. Many schools are undergoing pilots to develop new learning modules, especially

those that blend both the physical and digital worlds, where the learning experience is shaped from the

student's, and not the teacher's, perspective. These AR/VR models involve students accessing

external content (i.e., outside the classroom) to enable richer interactions during lessons.

A key enabling technological concept is the "Digital Twin." Once the various 3D data models are

integrated, the next stage is the combination of these data models to create the digital twin. The digital

twin concept consists of three main parts: physical products in real space, virtual products in virtual

space, and the connected data that ties the physical and virtual products together. The digital twin

allows for 3D simulation and visualization technology to improve the innovation, collaboration, and

quality improvement process in the entire education ecosystem.

Associated Drivers


survivors

Sense, Compute, Actuate: Turning data into value

IT Impact

Limitations arise for online channels that lack contextual visualizations. Static product data and 2D images are limited in meeting the sensory and contextual expectations that consumers

expect in making AR/VR content purchase decisions.

There is a lack of AR/VR imaging manpower capabilities and easily plug-and-play AR/VR product catalogs. An accurate overlaying of AR/VR product and its representation in physical

environments requires specialized skill sets in spatial and image processing.

Guidance

Explore 3D gamification opportunities with augmented reality. Gamification can help drive higher engagement with students and teachers, and even create a loop for repeat visits. It is critical for education institutions to identify opportunities where learning experiences can be

improved through AR/VR technologies.

Leverage outsourcing as a key method of curating AR/VR educational content in the short to

midterm or purchase access to relevant AR/VR content that is provisioned by an established education content partner. Refresh AR/VR content every so often to keep the experience fresh

and entice return users as well as new ones.

Prediction 4: By 2019, student-driven learning approaches will be leveraged by 35% of institutions globally to enable 360-degree personalized curricula development that is both student-led and AI-enabled

Education is becoming even more competitive, especially in further and higher education. This

pressure stems from intensifying competition for students, changes to the way education is funded,

and a growingly diverse student population. Data-driven insights are supplementing traditional

approaches to designing learning paths and interventions for success. In addition, machine learning,

assisted transactions, and chatbots have reached a point where they can deliver discernible benefits to

institutions. As these technologies enable new ways of engaging with students both from an academic

and administrative perspective, they also create challenges for institutions to support, integrate, and

align a diverse set of applications, platforms, and architectures.

Traditional education applications — student information systems, learning management systems, and

enterprise resource planning — have been applied to support transactional and learning elements in

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isolation of each other. However, arranging student success depends on bringing together these

elements to present a complete picture of students' progress. Students' expectations of institution

services are framed by their experiences with other providers of services, which have been adopting

digital technologies to provide a customer-centric approach to service delivery. It is not unusual to find

institutions unable to offer competing levels of services, due to immaturity in foundational services

such as identity management across systems, data management, and student engagement.

Analytics and AI play a leading role in addressing these challenges and can help to assist or automate

in delivering outcomes to students. The ability of AI analytics and AI to work across silos provides the

biggest benefit to institutions. Simple examples such as improving enrollment and finance functions

can make a considerable difference to students' experience. Few institutions are yet at this level,

though many we have talked to are pushing for student interactions with AI, including the use of

chatbots.

Associated Drivers


survivors


Rising Customer Expectations: More convenience, customization, and control

IT Impact

Enterprise and student administration systems remain a critical component of the operational infrastructure of institutions. These systems require the support of services that offer

intelligence to deliver personalized, student-centric engagements.

Flexible platforms are a key enabler of agility; adopting best-of-breed point solutions offers advantages to institutions that are moving toward dynamic structures away from end-to-end

solutions.

Guidance

View administration systems and students in the same light, as key components of the

institution's technology strategy, rather than as competing domains.

Pay attention to how these modernized platforms will support the development of institution-student relationships. Version updates and incremental enhancements are unlikely to provide

more than trifling advances in engagements.

Prediction 5: By 2023, flipped classrooms and peer learning will drive the development of next-generation digital classrooms in 50% of institutions globally, where such learning techniques are increasingly practiced.

Flipped classrooms are more commonly being embraced as part of the future of learning

transformation in numerous education institutions today. The flipped classroom is an educational

approach where the traditional notion of classroom-based learning is being inverted: teachers are now

often seen as "guides" while students deliberate over learning materials and participate in peer

learning or problem-solving activities to deepen their understanding of the subject at hand.

Such approach emphasizes the rising need to adopt teaching to individual students' styles of learning.

New digital technologies complement in-class learning activities as well as those undertaken outside

the classroom. Through technology, the flipped classroom can provide greater collaboration among

students, enrich learning experiences, and develop valuable skills (e.g., learning independence and

collaborative habits).

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Developing the right digital environment is important; institutions should not assume that learners will

immediately understand how to navigate their way around flipped classroom systems or content.

Successful educational institutions are those that understand how digital technologies are used to

improve self-paced learning and learning outcomes.

Associated Drivers


survivors



IT Impact

The ease of content creation is causing storage challenges. It is not unusual for a flipped classroom to generate dozens of hours of course content each school semester. As more content is digitized as part of flipped classroom approaches, the amount of data requiring

storage and automated classification shoots up.

A lack of information governance framework impacts upon learning experiences. Many education institutions are amassing vast libraries of multimedia content. This results in a

patchwork approach to data management, which results in a disjointed experience for students

and lectures.

Guidance

Leverage cloud storage solutions for storage cost scalability and control, and effective AI-based data governance applications in the cloud (to retire outmoded content immediately) to

manage education content classification and storage challenges.

Consolidate siloed strategic and operational outcomes of education stakeholders and create an all-of-campus information governance framework that provides sufficient guidance to data

management yet is flexible enough to cater to diverse education stakeholder needs.

Prediction 6: By 2022, 25% of education institutions worldwide will invest in teacher-parent and teacher-student portals to manage "out-of-classroom"interactions and engagements, notably at pre-university levels

In today's digital landscapes, learning is happening more and more in "out-of-classroom" situations.

IDC foresees education institutions creating one-stop portals that empower both teachers and students

(and even their parents) to embark upon self-discovery journeys, as well as make informed education

and career choices, with students being guided by both their parents and teachers. These portals aim

to bring about more collaborative habits for all education stakeholders, especially at pre-university

levels. Even at tertiary levels, collaboration is now possible across multiple classrooms that span

across cultures, institutions, and socioeconomic ecosystems.

In a collaborative learning environment, teachers and students work together in peer-to-peer or group

activities. Based on the idea that learning is social, the approach involves placing the learner at the

center with emphasis on interaction, working in groups to develop solutions to real-world problems.

The parent's perspective in this equation is to be continually updated and enabled to communicate

directly with teachers upon receiving information about their children. This way, a student's learning

journey can be enhanced with both parents and teachers working in harmony to guide the student and

ensure the best educational outcomes.

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Such collaborative learning has been proven to be successful in improving student engagement and

achievement, and even more so for disadvantaged students. The growth of this approach has also

benefited from an expanding focus on online global collaboration wherein students engage with others

around the world to support greater diversity in learning, conceptual development, problem-solving,

and intercultural understanding.

Associated Drivers




IT Impact

IT security and compliance will be a critical factor as these portals typically hold private student and parent data (e.g., medical records, financial data), leading to resistance from students and

parents to participate in these portals.

These portals must be designed to enable real-time, targeted, and personalized applications through advanced analytics and machine learning to create appropriate resources and

services for each student, parent, and teacher.

Guidance

Expect resistance to change and let all stakeholders drive transformation expectations (e.g.,desired user experience) so that the project is created with an outcomes-based approach

rather than a siloed, IT-centric deployment. This can potentially alleviate the privacy concerns

and security fears of both students and parents.

Select a technology vendor with experience in deploying such agile education portals that can personalize user experiences. Having the right vendor will be a critical factor that can make or

break the portal's usability.

Prediction 7: By 2019, increasingly digitized education resources, cloud-based applications, and lightweight hardware devices will transform 30% of classrooms globally into next-generation virtual classrooms

The traditional approach of one-to-many teaching is giving way to interactive learning models. The

greater technical skills of students, teachers, administrators, and parents, combined with a wave of

new, more affordable, and easier to use devices, have led to a dramatic rethinking of technology use in

the classroom. Electronic white boards and tablets have replaced blackboards and books in modern

classrooms. Today's students are just as likely to gather around tablets and computers, to access an

application, video, ebook, or a virtual reality tool, as they are to study a paper map.

The digitization of education content is accelerating, thanks to the use of cloud-based platforms,

allowing teachers to access a wider range of educational and non-educational apps that can be used

to merge video, audio, and still images to create course content or even entirely new programs.

Digitized education content supports broader changes to pedagogy such as in the way students are

addressed. In this process, original content is created by students every year, which will need to be

archived. A different approach is thus required for content creation and curation (e.g., where module

resources are housed, the use of different folder structures, where assessments are located). Although

there might be a sensible rationale for each teaching module to do things in a slightly different way, it is

important to place student experience at the center.

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The challenge of balancing student needs and capabilities with those of the institution should be

addressed through the development of a clear approach to the management of course content

creation and efficient authoring tools. This includes the development of logical learning paths that can

be tailored to students, empowering them to consume content in diverse ways, supported with

personalized interactions on lightweight, mobility-enabled hardware devices.

Associated Drivers



IT Impact

The patchwork approach to a school's ICT ecosystems and the creation of siloed virtual classrooms have created a security minefield for IT departments. Attacks are also just as likely

to come from internal areas.

The virtual classroom is one based on content. Storage will become a critical issue for

schools, which are used to slow growth and relatively stable demand for storage services.

Guidance

Get ahead of internal threats by improving the cybersecurity awareness of teachers and students and equipping them with modern classroom facilities and robust cybersecurity

solutions.

Leverage scalable cloud storage solutions for storage scalability and management.

Prediction 8: By 2021, tertiary institutions without digital learning and online accreditation will continually lose 5% of their student enrolment numbers annually to massive open online course (MOOC) platforms

Today, traditional colleges and universities are confronted by rising tuition costs, budget cuts, and a

lack of variety or industry relevance in courses. Potential students are growing more inclined toward

seeking alternative courses and certifications. Online education has in the recent years become one of

the most widespread alternatives to higher education, as it has proven to be just as effective as, if not

more flexible and engaging than, traditional face-to-face education.

Key industry-changing benefits of online education toward learning include: containing the spiraling

costs of pursuing education, the ability to select from a virtually limitless variety of programs and

courses, the flexibility to transfer credits, convenience and the ability to autonomously manage time

and resources through modular learning, avoiding commuting and ensuring safety during natural

disasters, and acquiring basic digital skills. Students in online programs can effectively manage their

time, learn the materials, and complete assignments on their own schedules. To this end, tertiary

institutions are compelled to create digital academies using massive open online course (MOOC)

platforms.

Institutions venturing into creating digital learning must ensure they invest equally in online

accreditation competencies. Identity access management solutions, for example, can help uphold the

integrity of online learning and accreditation programs, especially when it comes to test-taking. As

interactions between exam invigilators and students become virtual, the lack of a physical presence

makes it hard to determine whether identity dishonesty or deception has taken place or not.

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Associated Drivers


survivors



IT Impact

Cloud-based learning management systems (LMS) (e.g., Blackboard, Canvas, Moodle) will enable faster accessibility and exchange of information between the teaching staff and

students.

Collaborative social ecosystems allow for online learners to submit forum posts or real-time

messenger-based communications to engage in peer-to-peer and group discussions. This

acts as an alternative to in-person class attendance for interactions.

Online accreditation enforced through biometric solutions for attendance taking will be a norm.

Guidance

Budgets and needs vary across educational institutions. Choosing the right cloud-based LMS include having a clear understanding of the pricing models and the specification support most

effectively tied to learning outcomes.

Collaborative social ecosystems should be paired with collaborative learning habits, where

students are motivated to make academic progress in tandem with others as they work toward

a common goal. Educators must establish collaboration expectations from the start.

Online accreditation can ensure that any accredited online program meets the same ideals as accredited on-campus options. Invest in online proctoring solutions. Such analytics-based services can monitor students as they complete their assessments. If the learner displays any

suspicious conduct that suggests dishonesty, the service may alert the school virtually.

Prediction 9: By 2022, the federated cloud offerings supported by governments will be used by 20% of universities worldwide, both within participating universities and across other tertiary institutions

The demand for computing infrastructure needed to support massive high-end research is

continuously rising. Even the most well-financed research institutions struggle when met with the

increasing demand for computing and data storing capabilities, which some streams of research

require. Efforts to pool resources and rely on more federated infrastructure are one of the solutions

that universities and other non-profit research institutions are exploring and beginning to use.

The nation states and supranational entities such as EU are trying to support universities' cloud-first

transformation initiatives by providing the common set of rules, as well as funding, for the

establishment of a functioning multiorganizational research environment. The European Open Science

Cloud is one such endeavor. By actively supporting their research communities, nation states are not

only fostering innovation within their respective jurisdictions, but also trying to make research

institutions more cooperative and, ultimately, more accountable for national authorities, which usually

mandate rules under which the subsidized federated infrastructure may be used. In effect, nation

states will aim to create industrywide platforms for innovation, which would give edge to their research

communities. The support of nation states will help the research communities be more shielded in

terms of cybersecurity, as national authorities will enforce common security standards and provide

missing know-how.

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Associated Drivers



survivors


IT Impact

The IT infrastructure of major universities will become more dependent on national (and supranational) policies. This will, in turn, lead to certain standardization and the emergence of

true industry clouds in higher education.

Support from national authorities will lead all universities to consider moving to the cloud.

Although cloud-first strategies may not become widespread, at the minimum the cloud-also

approach will be warranted and widely adopted even by current non-adopters.

Guidance

Consider national funding initiatives in modernizing research IT infrastructures with cloud technologies. By leveraging these funding sources, support will be given by governments to

technology standardization and investment choices.

Strive to make infrastructure open to the incorporation of cloud-first solutions, particularly

those that are compliant with the rules of emerging industry clouds.

Prediction 10: By 2020, 50% of governments will address skill-set shortages due to DX through digital curriculum emphasis in K-12 and tertiary levels, and through lifelong learning initiatives for existing workforce

The impact of digital transformation on the labor market is clearly becoming one of the important points

on the agenda of national policymakers. The skills mismatch is one of the main reasons why even in

times of economic conjuncture, large parts of the labor force face problems in finding suitable jobs. As

the pace of the digital transformation is likely to heighten in the future and the advent of mass

deployment of new technologies, based on machine learning, is likely to affect significantly bigger

portions of populations, the policymakers are keen to ensure the long-term competitiveness of their

electorate by providing the necessary skills.

Most national governments globally are expected to draft new strategies and enhance existing

curricula to ensure that the new generation of the workforce will be well prepared to face the changing

requirements of the labor market. The necessity of continuous learning will be also reflected in the

burgeoning emphasis on lifelong learning, as the traditional cycle of education–working life– retirement

will be disrupted.

The digital curriculum will focus both on the necessary technological skills, designed to complement

newly empowered machine-learning-enhanced technologies, and on soft skills.

Associated Drivers



survivors


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IT Impact

Services integration will be required to stitch siloed education services together to provision for

sustained lifelong learning.

Next-generation learning solutions (e.g., LMS) will be deployed to manage new pedagogy and

curriculum dissemination.

Guidance

Target new streams of grant funding from national governments to fund digital innovation

through standardization and services integration initiatives.

Select a campus learning solution with sufficient flexibility to accommodate the constantly changing requirements of the education sector and the larger global skill-set demand of other

industries.

ADVICE FOR TECHNOLOGY BUYERS

Update What Is Taught

Develop skill sets for tomorrow's industries. Science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) and innovation in schools are becoming more commonly integrated into

many national governments' competitiveness as well as lifelong learning agenda. In many economies today, programming and engineering have been highlighted as "critical" by governments. For instance, it is believed that trained engineers have the analytical rigor,

discipline, and problem-solving skills to thrive in today's highly digitized world.

Address the fierce competition for students. In Australia, for instance, where the education

sector is the 4th largest national GDP contributor, competition is particularly intense in the university sector not just for the best talent but also for student revenues that help ensure their

survivability in the long run.

Monitor quality. With the public sector and taxpayers spending larger amounts of resources on education, the more stringent monitoring of quality is needed, especially in educational

facilities with predominantly public funding. With the share of college graduates rising, the main issue in developed economies is now shifting to the differences between the quality of

education received.

Improve How It Is Taught

Decentralized IT (e.g., the presence of shadow IT) is very high in education. In fact, education has one of the highest rates of IT resources outside of the IT department. This is unsurprising given that open access and collaboration are actively encouraged in education. Successful

education institutions would do well to further engage and integrate an already existing

ecosystem of digital natives to continually expand their reach.

The concepts of blended learning, flipped classrooms, and personalized learning havebecome so commonplace — whereas they used to be emerging trends, they are now "business as usual." Most educators have embraced these concepts and are re-imagining

learning through new pedagogical approaches. Analytics is being used to create personalized learning experiences, while learning analytics technologies are being used by more universities to address student retention. For example, for its blended learning project, Victoria

University launched an integrated learning platform that uses data analytics and mobile apps

to help design, deliver, and manage anywhere, anytime learning programs for its students.

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Address the Needs of Lifelong Learners Out of School

Lifelong learning is gaining momentum as a national movement to provide citizens with the opportunities to develop their fullest potential throughout life, regardless of their status (such as whether they are still studying or have already joined the workforce). As the global

economy restructures to leverage digital technologies and companies find ways to innovate and enhance productivity, the demand for higher-skilled workers will also increase. Given these trends, the workplace must be a major site of learning, where citizens are able to

continue to develop themselves throughout their careers and through life.

Disruptive technologies will create new IT innovation prospects and transform the workplace

ecosystem by enabling more collaborations across previously siloed line-of-business units. Digital innovations in analytics and AI, mobility, x-as-a-service operating models, and next-generation cybersecurity threats will cause an upsurge in the need for new skill sets to

manage transformations required for digital services. By emphasizing upon continual and

pervasive innovation, the talent landscape will begin to embrace lifelong learning mindsets.

Today's worldwide insufficiency of hirable skill sets for emerging technologies means that such specialized skills will be rarely available and will be in high demand in the short to medium run for organizations globally. Considering the time and effort it takes to train the next-generation

workforce to match such talent shortages, education institutions should also target retooling

and upgrading the skill sets of the existing domestic workforce.

Education institutions must then work closely with industry leaders to not only train a fresh batch of industry-ready new graduates annually, but also contribute widely to the development

of a constantly industry- and digital-ready workforce of the future.

EXTERNAL DRIVERS IN DETAIL

The Race to Innovate: Speed of Change, Delivery, and Operations Separates Thrivers and Survivors

Description: Survival of the fittest in the digital era is linked not to size or strength, but to the ability to change: to move quickly, adapt, seize opportunities, and be agile. The best-performing organizations — armed with digital-native culture, tools, and process — are

speeding away from the rest, creating a bifurcated and unequal landscape where a few firms exhibit high productivity and profits. The new imperative is to keep pace with business change while increasing the speed of business operations, the speed at which changes are delivered,

and the speed and scale of innovation. In an attempt to go faster, many organizations struggle under a legacy of siloes and innovations stagnate with redundancy and inconsistency. Innovation "at scale" eludes all but the elite few while the distance between thrivers and

survivors grows. Some organizations adapt to new models and ecosystems and move from

automation to autonomy; others struggle with the basics and fall behind.

Context: Over the past 50 years, the average lifespan of a company on the S&P 500 has shrunk from around 60 years to closer to 18 years. The rate of change is accelerating dramatically. Time to decide and act requires near-frictionless, fact-based decision-making

processes. To thrive, organizations must be innovating simultaneously on multiple levels (e.g., industry change, delivery, operations) at a speed they are not used to. Digital capabilities provide modular, plug-and-play technology, business, and industry platforms, allowing

businesses to quickly adapt and compete in digital transformation.

©2018 IDC #AP44343418 15

Platforms, Platforms, Platforms: Industry Competes for Innovation at Scale

Description: Understanding and building a "DX platform" that can sustain, advance, and scale

business and operations may be the most important decision leaders will make for the next 10 years. The platform is the new battleground for innovation, developers, and marketplaces as the industry rushes to enable its customers with a range of platforms. Leaders must discover

what their own platform should look like, how they will compete in the platform business economy, and what platform vendors they should choose. Megaplatforms are competing to own infrastructure and development environments. Application-centric platforms are looking

for the network effect to expand their reach. Industry-specific platforms are harnessingmultiplied innovation to build niche ecosystems. Every business must incorporate these new

options into its own DX platform.

Context: Today, we are in a platform economy — one in which tools, capabilities, and frameworks based upon the power of information, cognitive computing, and ubiquitous access

will frame and channel our economic, business, and social lives. Companies and industries must shift to compete in their respective sectors, but also in the new, larger platform business economy. The DX platform concept is expanding from microservices, technology stacks, and

software bundles to PaaS to entirely new digital business- and industry-specific platforms, ecosystems, and operating models. It lies at the heart of DX strategy, providing the

architecture that drives and accelerates every digital initiative.

Sense, Compute, Actuate: Turning Data into Value

Description: Today, data and intelligence represent a unique opportunity for creating unimaginable value. IoT, mobile devices, big data — combined with historical data, systems of record, and global information — continually sense an environment and put it into new

contexts. Combined with AI and machine learning, organizations are spreading intelligence from the edge to the core to turn data into value. However, it is harder than it appears. Winners are differentiated by the ways they leverage data to deliver meaningful, value-added

predictions and actions for personalized life efficiency and convenience, improving industrial processes, healthcare, experiential engagement, data monetization, or any enterprise decision

making.

Context: By 2020, in over half of G2000 firms, revenue growth from information-based products and services will have twice the growth rate of the balance of the product/service

portfolio. Data as a service (DaaS) presents an expanding market for both providers and consumers. The volume, velocity, and variety of data, and large and diverse data sets createnew challenges, but when combined with AI technologies and exponential computing power,

they create ever greater opportunities. Any application, process, service, or organization that doesn't take into account the new "sense, compute, actuate" paradigm is missing the boat with

digital transformation.

Emerging Autonomy: Learning to Live with AI

Description: AI is actively impacting experiential engagement, business and manufacturing processes, strategies, and more, autonomously creating a significant portion of new innovations. Many future applications will be developed by AI without human supervision.

Beyond that, augmented humanity — the fusion of digital technologies and humans — for improved mobility, sensing, and cognition will start to become routine. Unfortunately, the"ethics of AI" have yet to catch up with the technology, leaving potential for bad AI as well as

good. Bias in AI models is just beginning to get attention. Regulations are even farther behind.

©2018 IDC #AP44343418 16

There will be a long period of augmentation before autonomy takes over. Unfortunately, society is unprepared; however, there is still time to adapt. AI is changing the way people live,

work, and play; learning to live with AI is essential.

Context: Intelligent applications based on artificial intelligence and continual deep learning are

the next wave of technology that will transform how consumers and enterprises work, learn, and play. By 2027, 10% or more of applications will be developed by AI without human supervision. Automated customer service agents, increased public safety, preventative

maintenance, reduction of fraud, and improved healthcare diagnosis are just the tip of the iceberg driving spend today. IDC forecasts AI solutions will continue to see significant corporate investment over the next several years, achieving a compound annual growth rate

(CAGR) of 46.2% through 2021, when revenues will reach more than US$52 billion.

Cyber Insecurity: Theft, Cyberattack, Negligence Create a Crisis of Digital Trust

Description: Consumers, citizens, and partners have lost faith in technology, creating a crisis of digital trust. Poor technology decisions, human error, or unidentified weaknesses can result in breaches that have a significant impact on businesses and customers. It is even worse

when the negligence and hubris of some tech leaders is to blame. On the other hand, new approaches such as "security as a service" and threat intelligence are proving themselves; promising new technologies such as blockchain create "trusted transfers of value" and many

fresh opportunities from smart, secure contracts to food traceability. Protecting the security and privacy of an organization's digital assets, and the ability to anticipate, identify, contain,

measure, and address security risks are critical to mitigating the crisis of trust.

Context: Data breaches, cybercrime, and data privacy scandals regularly hit global newsreports. IDC forecasts that global spending on security solutions will reach US$120.7 billion in

2021 with a CAGR of 10.0% from 2018 to 2021. "Contain and control" approaches, augmented with cognitive computing, are replacing outdated "protect and defend" models. Security initiatives should employ new technologies and approaches to evaluate and mitigate new risks

while ensuring privacy, confidentiality, integrity, and availability.

Rising Consumer Expectations: More Convenience, Customization, and Control

Description: As disruptive organizations leverage breakthroughs in cloud, mobile, social, and AI to deliver personalized, rewarding, and immediate experiences, customers have more choices than ever. New devices and interfaces, wearables, AR/VR, home automation,

information and connectivity are combining to instill a belief that people can have what they want, when, where, and how they want it, and at the same time, be in control of their data and their experience. Yet, AI-based consumer reputational scoring may be at odds. Emerging

economies are bringing hundreds of millions of new customers that businesses are competing

to win. Enterprises live and die by Net Promotor Scores, apps, network integration, and more.

Context: With new customer expectations being set by thriving companies that have successfully disrupted markets, the previously accepted levels of customer service are no longer good enough. New platforms and business, operational, and organizational models are

now required to meet consumer expectations. Customers now expect real-time support with answers to complex questions ready at the click of a button. More people are willing to share personal data in exchange for better service, but they also want more control of their personal

data.

©2018 IDC #AP44343418 17

The Future of Work: Bridging the Digital Talent Gap

Description: New talent management techniques and technology accelerators are fundamentally changing the concept of work and how it is done. The future workspace will be a mix of physical and virtual. Work culture will be more collaborative, while the workforce will

be a combination of people and machines working together. But until that vision materializes, the demand for digital talent will outpace the supply, and trends to limit the free flow of workers will localize the problem. Platform providers are under pressure to address the talent crunch

with new productivity environments such as low-code/no code. AI may help increase efficiency for some tasks, but this is not the talent in short supply. Organizations must equip up-and-coming generations for the future while they bring current workers up to speed to address

workforce needs.

Context: The demographic shifts led by millennials entering the workforce and technology

advances are driving fundamental changes in the workplace. The future of work is humans and machines, instead of humans versus machines. This impacts organizations' culture, required skills, talent sourcing, workspace, and the nature and makeup of the workforce itself.

It requires organizations to leverage digital technologies, attitudes, and behaviors to reinvent the way their businesses engage with their employees, partners, and customers to drive

higher efficiencies and deliver superior experiences.

LEARN MORE

Related Research

New Zealand Education ICT Market, 2016–2021 (Forthcoming, October 2018)

Critical External Drivers Shaping Global IT and Business Planning, 2019 (IDC #US44330818,

October 2018)

IDC PlanScape: Predictive Analytics for Education (IDC #CEMA44203918, September 2018)

EduTECH Sydney 2018: Gardeners, Not Carpenters (IDC #AP44158118, August 2018)

European Education IT Executive Survey (IDC #CEMA43676018, April 2018)

The Workforce of the Future (IDC #AP42881917, July 2017)

Australia Education ICT Market, 2015–2020 (IDC #AP42688018, June 2017)

Lifelong Learning in Asia/Pacific (Excluding Japan) (IDC #AP42299017, February 2017)

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