Thursday, July 2, 2009IDRC

OttawaCo-directors: Patrick Watson, Dan Lane

Team members: Philippe Crabbé, Colleen Mercer Clarke, John Clarke, Ron Jones

North Carolina Beach, Winter

IPCC 4th Assessment:Climate Change and Water “Higher water temperatures and changes in extremes, including floods and droughts, are projected to affect water quality and exacerbate many forms of water pollution (high confidence).

In addition, sea-level rise is projected to extend areas of salinisation of groundwater and estuaries, resulting in a decrease of freshwater availability for humans and ecosystems in coastal areas.”

14 October 2008 Richmond County Council Meeting 4

Halifax 2003

“We simply have no evidence that implementation and testing [for emergencies] has taken place. This means Canadians have no assurance that essential government operations will function during emergencies.”

Canada 2008, p.6; CTV News, September 18, 2008

We believe that use of scientific and traditional knowledge, together with better understanding of the economic value of healthy coastal ecosystems, can help change the political discourse that eventually determines societal pressures. Societal responsibility and responsiveness can only increase as we improve the flow of pertinent and useable scientific information.

This report offers a preliminary examination of the potential costs to the island nations of the Caribbean. …we compare an optimistic scenario and a pessimistic one. Both scenarios are based largely on the 2007 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The cost of inaction, or the difference between these two scenarios, may be seen as the potential savings from acting in time to prevent the worst economic consequences of climate change.

ICURA Project ProposalProject title:

“Managing adaptation to environmental change in coastal communities: Canada and the Caribbean”

Storm surge and sea level rise affecting water supply and coastal resourcesEnhancing community preparedness and capacity to adaptCaribbean coastal communities:

Grand Riviere, Trinidad spawning ground for leatherback turtles (ecotourism) the Belize Barrier Reef (UNESCO World Heritage Danger List) Bequia in St. Vincent and the Grenadines (ecotourism) City of Georgetown, the capital of Guyana (below sea level)

Canadian communities: Charlottetown, P.E.I. (below sea level) Isle Madame, Nova Scotia (flooding, salination of water supply) Gibsons, British Columbia (aquafers concern) Iqaluit, Nunavut (changing climate impacts)

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ICURA Team MembersCaribbean Workshop, Sept 3-7, 2008

Formal Proposal: Objectives1. develop local community capacity to close the gaps between

inevitable environmental change and the urgent need for local coastal communities to adapt their own efforts to anticipate and plan for environmental impacts to their physical, economic, and social well-being

2. improve planning for adaptation through the development and incorporation of new policy and management measures consistent with established planning theory and guidelines, and the local context, through the identification and implementation of practical local alternatives for coastal resource management

3. focus on immediate and downstream consequences to coastal communities of the insidious effects of sea level rise and the potential catastrophic impacts of extreme weather events

4. establish formal collaboration and mutual co-learning opportunities among the selected Canadian and Caribbean coastal communities on comparative research on policy implementation for adaptation to coastal environmental shifts

Definition of Communities1. Governance and local decision makers

municipal governments, regional, provincial, federal regulations

2. Private and public infrastructure services planners and design professionals, utilities and services (fire,

electrical, engineering contractors, jurists, insurance, health care)

3. Business and economic activity organizations corporations, small businesses, boards of trade and

commerce, development associations, community associations4. Citizens’ groups

environmental advocates, indigenous communities, seniors5. Affected individuals

especially special interest or disadvantaged members of the local society who are socially differentiated by poverty and across gender, class, race and age

Coastal Communities:Threat Criteriai. serious, immediate threats to infrastructure

and or natural environments (e.g. tourism infrastructure, natural resources, habitats, species), and to area residents (e.g., livelihoods, family structure, cultural assets, and vulnerabilities derived from poverty/gender issues)

ii. ease of access to available data iii. opportunities for partnerships and alliancesiv. team member familiarity with area and/or

community champions in place

Source: http://atlas.nrcan.gc.ca/site/english/maps/climatechange/potentialimpacts/coastalsensitivitysealevelrise

Program Objectives1. Community objectives

1. Establish formal Community-University alliances2. Strengthen community institutional arrangements3. Establish long-term linkages4. Prepare community action plans

2. University objectives1. Develop academic alliances2. Collaborate on global research3. Develop new curricula

3. Joint Community-University Alliances objectives1. Identify the short and long term vulnerabilities2. Mobilize knowledge and innovation3. Build capacity4. Develop impact scenarios, and prepare adaptation

action plans

Research Process

Strategies

Methods

Activities

Time/Milestones

CommunityEngagement

Scenario Development

Construct Policy Options

CommunityEncounter

Database Development

Analysis of CumulativeCommunity Eff ects

Measure VulnerabilityAdaptiveCapacity

DevelopCapacity

SSM

SD

GIS

VI

AHP

The Research Process: Strategies1. Community engagement2. Scenario development3. Capacity building4. New governance options5. Practical implementation

The Research Process: Activities1. Study area selection2. Community alliance groups3. Description database development and GIS

presentation4. Alternative scenarios5. Cumulative effects analysis6. Adaptive capacity 7. Risk and vulnerability analysis8. Policy and instruments9. Strategic Adaptation Plans

The Research Process: Milestones & Methods Year 1

Establish project website as key communication link Establish Community-University Alliance Groups (contact teams) Develop community profiles, establish community inventory (resources,

demographics, governance, activities, plans) Year 2

Prepare community spatial models with baseline indices (GIS, SD) Develop space-based scenarios Develop sensitivity and vulnerability indices

Year 3 Work with community groups for ‘buy-in’ (SSM) Provide community training in spatial and vulnerability index use (VI)

Year 4 Prepare decision making guidelines for local dissemination Discuss, review, and feedback scenarios and prepare monitoring and tracking

capabilities Year 5

Develop and consolidate Final Report

Methodology1. Problem definition2. Data collection and community database (SSM, SD)3. Visual modelling (GIS)4. Vulnerability modelling (VI)5. Adaptive capacity and resilience modelling (VI, RI)6. Development and assessment of policy options (SD)7. Evaluation of group decision making (AHP)8. Implementation of local adaptation planning and

action frameworks

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Project Outcomes1. Creation and Communication of

Knowledge 2. Co-Learning 3. Decision Support Tools4. Monitoring and Evaluation Indicators 5. Training6. Community Adaptation Action Plans

(CAAPs) 7. Governance Institutional Advice

Project ManagementAnnual - reporting requirements and full team

meetings (situated around conferences) Quarterly - Regional (in country meetings in

sites)Monthly – Newsletter to teamWeekly – regular Website updates; ongoinh

advertisements BudgetingResource availability and use (resource

costing)

Project Itinerary Integrating (Canada & Caribbean) meetings – Annually around

Conferences (Turtles, OMRN, CZCA) Domestic meetings Formal & Informal

Draft Itinerary (under discussion) June 29-30, 2009 SSHRC-IDRC Start-Up End Sept 2009 Canada Co-apps + collaborators October 2009 OMRN Conference - ICURA joint meeting Nov 2009 Meeting with Partners (in Canada, in the

Caribbean) January 2010 Milestone framework Feb-March 2010Canada + Caribbean (T&T); partner site

alternatives June 2010 CZCA Conference, Charlottetown, P.E.I. August 2010 Annual meeting – conference,

presentation of work to date; participants and invited

Partners AcknowledgementCanada

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Partners AcknowledgementCaribbean

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