Icosystem Corporation and Icosystem Corporation and Predictive AnalyticsPredictive Analytics

IOP 2006January 18, 2006

Who knows what the future holds?Who knows what the future holds?

Predicting the future requires more than looking at the past…

Who knows what the future holds?Who knows what the future holds?

Predictive AnalyticsPredictive Analytics

Icosystem uses advanced analytical techniques that don’t just extrapolate the past into the future.

• Agent Based Modeling

• Interactive Search

• Agent Based Modeling

• Interactive Search

“History shows you don't know what the future brings.”-Rick Wagoner, GM CEO

Who uses our models?Who uses our models?

Corporate:

• Aventis• BP• DuPont• Eli Lilly• Humana• La Poste• PepsiCo• Schlumberger• Unilever

Government:

• Air Force Research Lab

• U.S. Army• DARPA• DISA• IDA• NUWC• OFT• ONR

What is Agent Based Modeling?What is Agent Based Modeling?

• Bottom-up simulations from the perspective of an individual person/company/market

• Interactions between individuals change behaviors during course of simulation

• Global trends emerge, rather than being determined up front

Emergent behavior: the Icosystem Emergent behavior: the Icosystem gamegame

Computer simulation of the Icosystem Computer simulation of the Icosystem gamegame

A is the aggressor, B the defender, try to keep B between you and A

A is the aggressor, you are the defender, keep yourself between A

and B

See demo at http://www.icosystem.com/game.htm

Why is this interesting?Why is this interesting?

The Icosystem Game:a deceptively simple complex system

• Knowing the behavior of every individual is not enough to predict system behavior

• Slight changes in rules or interactions can lead to dramatic changes in system behavior

• The traditional reductionist (i.e., divide-and-conquer) does not work!

Supermarket Shopper BehaviorSupermarket Shopper Behavior

Parking lot

Produce

Deli

RegistersEntrance

Fro

zen

fo

od

CSD

entrance

target

Client:Fortune 500 consumer goods company

Challenge:Understand behavior of shoppers moving through a supermarket

•How do they navigate?•What do they purchase?•Where to place products?

Complexities:•Correlate cart tracking data with consumer behavior•Predict behavior for novel supermarket configurations Outcome:Identified key behavioral drivers; tool development contracted in Q2’05.

Client:Fortune 500 consumer goods company

Challenge:Understand behavior of shoppers moving through a supermarket

•How do they navigate?•What do they purchase?•Where to place products?

Complexities:•Correlate cart tracking data with consumer behavior•Predict behavior for novel supermarket configurations Outcome:Identified key behavioral drivers; tool development contracted in Q2’05.

Predictive AnalyticsPredictive Analytics

Technique #2: Interactive Search

“I know well what I am fleeing from, but not what I am in search of.”-Michel de Montaigne

Drug DiscoveryDrug Discovery

Client:Fortune 100 pharma company

Challenge:Increase the success rate/ quality of molecules in the early stages of drug development

Complexities:•Vast search space•Chemist knowledge cannot be completely codified•Huge expense for each failureOutcome:Created tool which generates novel compound designs based on interactive chemist feedback

Client:Fortune 100 pharma company

Challenge:Increase the success rate/ quality of molecules in the early stages of drug development

Complexities:•Vast search space•Chemist knowledge cannot be completely codified•Huge expense for each failureOutcome:Created tool which generates novel compound designs based on interactive chemist feedback

olympic

food

transit

religion

bobsled

skiinggold

bronze

rings

security

pins

nationalceremony

biathlon

skating

winter

torch

Torino

US troops

preparation

buyingrice

eggplant

spicesshortage

cafe

burghallamb

pride

lentil

pastry

storage

saffronsafety

road

truckbuscar

pedestriangoat

bridge

checkpointbarricade

explosion

helicopter

engineer

build

mosque

prayer

fundamental

MuslimSunniShi’a

Al Qaeda

Festival of Eid

freedom

jihad

peace

defendsave

forgive

war

United States

Marines Armydefend uniforms

gunsbombkill

save

brave

warIraq

liberty

electionssuccess

destroy

childrensafety

toysplay

learn

friendXbox 360

bikelaugh

train

schoolEnglish

Baby Noor

doll

pencil

Interactive Search applied to Open Interactive Search applied to Open Source informationSource information

What if we could easily

monitor communication

volume

AND

content?

olympic transit

religion

bobsled

skiinggold

bronze

rings

pins

nationalceremony

biathlon

skating

winterTorino

road

truckbuscar

pedestriangoat

bridge

checkpointbarricade

explosion

helicopter

engineer

build

mosque

prayer

fundamental

MuslimSunniShi’a

Al Qaeda

Festival of Eid

freedom

jihad

peace

defendsave

forgive

war

United States

Marines Armydefend uniforms

bombkill

save

brave

warIraq

liberty

success

destroy

childrensafety

toysplay

learn

friendXbox 360

bikelaugh

train

schoolEnglish

Baby Noor

doll

pencil

foodbuying

rice

shortage

cafe

burghal

lentil

pastry

storage

safety saffronUS troops

preparationeggplant

spices

lamb

Interactive Search applied to Open Interactive Search applied to Open Source informationSource information

shortageUS troops

riceburghal

Oil-for-food

safety

farmersdrought

giant hamstersheat

refrigerationstarvation

seedswater

irrigation

labor

giant hamsters

airdrop

starvation

hamsters of mass destruction

unleash

hamster plague

destroydestroy rations

US troops

Come see us at our table!Come see us at our table!

“My therapist told me the way to achieve true inner peace is to finish what I start. So far today, I have finished 2 bags of M and M's and a chocolate cake. I feel better already.”- Dave Barry

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