ICICIdirect_FreightForward_October2011

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October 17, 2011

Freight Forward

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Shipping Monthly Report – October 2011

• The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by 17% to 1899 in September2011 due to a 21%, 6%, and 8% rise in Capesize, Panamax and

Supramax index, respectively. Freight rates rose in September forCapesize vessels as Australian iron ore exports remained at highlevels to substitute lower exports from India to China owing to themonsoon season. We expect freight rates for Capesize andpanamax vessels to firm up with continued high level of exportsfrom Australia and the gradual up-tick in Indian iron ore exports toChina

• The Dirty Tanker Index rose by 3% to 697 while the Clean TankerIndex increased by 5% to 725 in September 2011. VLCC freightrates remained in the negative territory while day rates forSuezmax rose by 29% (on an abnormally low base) and Aframaxfreight rates crashed by 75%

• LPG freight rates displayed a weak trend in September 2011 withrates for larger vessels declining sharply. Day rates of VLGCsregistered a decline of 6% while LGC rates declined sharply by17%. MGC freight rates remained flattish during the month

• Utilisation levels for drill ships, semi-subs and jack-ups displayed amixed trend. Utilisation levels for drill ships, semi-subs and jack-up rigs was reported at 82%, 88% and 80% in September 2011 asagainst 82%, 87% and 80% in August 2011, respectively.

Outlook

Dry bulkersIn the near term, dry bulk freight rates are expected to remain positive

owing to the high level of Australian iron ore exports and higher imports

of nickel and ferrous scrap by China. Also, a gradual revival of Indian iron

ore exports to China would result in firmness in freight rates for Panamax

vessels. Over the longer term, excess supply of tonnage would keep tabs

on the up move in freight rates.

TankersCrude oil tanker freight rates are expected to remain subdued owing to

the oversupply of tonnage, which would handicap the market. Even if

some demand emerges in the near term, the tonnage available is likely to

weigh on the charter rates and keep them subdued. Some positivemomentum is likely for VLCCs while Suezmax day rates are expected to

rise from its current appalling levels.

LPG carriersLPG freight rates are expected to remain weak particularly for VLGC and

LGC while MGC freight rates are expected to remain flattish. Smaller

vessels could face downward pressure in freight rates owing to a large

proportion of vessels being added to the global fleet in 2011.

Offshore vesselsUtilisation levels for offshore vessels are expected to increase while

charter rates are expected to remain range-bound with a positive bias in

October 2011. High capex spend by major global oil exploration/drilling

companies is likely to lead to higher utilisation levels for offshore vessels.

ctorual weight

eight Index Movement - September 2011

1M 6M 1Yr.

ty Tanker Index 697 3 -25 -3

an Tanker Index 725 5 -14 7

tic Dry Index 1,899 17 24 -30

pesize Index 3,136 21 77 -11

namax Index 1,726 6 -12 -41

pramax Index 1,499 8 -2 -27

et C lass CurrentCha nge (% )

VLCC

Suezmax

Aframax

Capesize

Panamax

Supramax

Handysize

harat Chhoda

[email protected]



Freight Forward

Page 2ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Tanker freight rates in September 2011, displayed a mixed trend. VLCCs

remained in the negative territory while Suezmax rates increased by 29%

and Aframax rates crashed by almost 75%. The freight levels at present

for all categories are quite low compared to their historical levels as

substantial oversupply across various categories is keeping freight rates

weak.

Exhibit 1: Tankers T/C (US$ per day)

Asset class May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11

VLCC 1073 3986 -2625 -3350 -5879

Suezmax 7110 841 1359 1997 2584

Aframax 7451 5302 4900 5881 1461

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 2: LPG T/C (US$ per day)

M onthly D a ily M onthly Da ilyVLGC-TC 78,000 cbm 725,000 23,849 685,000 22,534

LGC-TC 57,000 cbm 660,000 21,710 550,000 18,092

MGC-TC 35,000 cbm 640,000 21,053 620,000 20,395

MGC-TC 30,000 cbm 585,000 19,243 585,000 19,243

MGC- TC 28,000 cbm 530,000 17,434 535,000 17,599

MGC- TC 24,000 cbm 510,000 16,776 510,000 16,776

Asset class

Aug -11 Sep-11


Exhibit 3: China’s monthly iron ore inventory

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11

m l n t o n n e s


After an increase in China’s inventory level by3% in July and August 2011 to 95.3 milliontonnes (MT), the inventory level declined by

2.7% in September 2011 to 92 .8 MT

The iron ore inventory level is high. We expecta further moderation in inventory level, goingforward, which could once again exert pressureon the BDI

LPG freight rates displayed a weak trend,particularly the larger vessels with VLGC ratesdeclining by 6% MoM while LGC rates declined

by almost 17% in September 2011 compared toAugust 2011. MGC rates remained flattish



Freight Forward


Exhibit 4: Asia Pacific Iron Ore Index

0

100

200

300

400

500

600


I n d e x


Exhibit 5: China iron ore import trend analysis

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Feb-09 Aug-09 Feb-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 Aug-11

m l n t o n n e s

Australia Brazil India South Africa


Exhibit 6: China’s monthly steel production

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Aug-08 Feb-09 Aug-09 Feb-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 Aug-11

m l n t o n n e s


The Asia Pacific Iron Ore Index declined by13.5% in September 2011 to 237 level

China’s iron ore imports from Australia, BrazilIndia and South Africa increased by 2%, 8%, 8%and 54%, respectively, in August 2011

India’s exports of iron ore to China increased to4.3 MT. Australia (26.3 MT) and Brazil(12.1MT) continued to be the two largestexporters of iron ore to China in August 2011

We expect a revival in India’s export of iron oreafter the end of the monsoon season

Steel production in China decreased by 0.55MT (0.9%) in August 2011 to 58.8 MT



Freight Forward


Exhibit 7: Coal Index

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Jan-09 Sep-09 May-10 Jan-11 Sep-11

I n d e x

BWCOAL Index BPRCOAL Index


Exhibit 8: Weekly dry bulk indices movement

1000

1300

1600

1900

2200

2500

2800

1-Sep-11 8-Sep-11 15-Sep-11 22-Sep-11 29-Sep-11

I n d e x

Baltic Dry Index Baltic Capesize Index Baltic Panamax Index


Exhibit 9: Dry bulk indices

0

3000

6000

9000

12000

15000


I n d e x

BDI BCI BPI


The World Coal Index and Asia Pacific CoalIndex declined by 13.4% and 9.7%,respectively, in September 2011

Dry bulk freight rates remained firm duringSeptember 2011 with significant strength in thesecond half of the month

The BDI moved up by 17% in September 2011to 1899 level

The Capesize index maintained its strongmomentum of August and moved up further by21% in September 2011 to 3136 level

The Panamax index rose by 6% in September to1726 level



Freight Forward


Exhibit 10: International crude oil prices

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140


$ / b a r r e l


Exhibit 11: Baltic clean and dirty tanker index

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500


I n d e x

Baltic clean tanker index Baltic dirty tanker index


Exhibit 12: Tanker rates trend

-15000

5000

25000

45000

65000

85000

105000

125000


U S $ / d

a y

VLCC Suezmax Aframax


After declining by 7% in May and 4% in June,crude oil prices increased by 4.6% to$116.8/barrel in July 2011. August 2011 sawcrude prices declining in the first half with alow of $103.5/barrel and regaining most of thelost ground in the second half and closing with

a marginal 1% decline at $115.2/barrel. InSeptember 2011, crude oil price declined by 9%to $104.3/barrel

The Clean Tanker Index increased by 5.4% to725 while the Dirty Tanker Index increased by2.7% to 697

Monthly average freight rates for VLCCsremained in the negative territory while dayrates for Suezmax increased by 29%. Aframaxfreight rates declined by 75% in September2011



Freight Forward


Exhibit 13: Offshore vessel utilisation levels

78 78 79 79 82 8286 86 87 87 88

79 80 80 81 80 8085

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

A p r - 1 1

M a y - 1 1

J u n - 1 1

J u l - 1 1

A u g - 1 1

S e p - 1 1

% u t i l i s a t i o n

Drillship Semisub Jack up


Exhibit 14: BPR Asia Pacific Shipbuilding Index

0

200

400

600

800

1000


I n d e x


Exhibit 15: Global order book size

Vessels mln DWT Vessels mln DWT % of DWT

Dry Bulk 23784 623 3694 255 40.9

Tanker 12253 514 1208 113 22.0LPG 1555 43 143 12 28.6

Containers 4924 186 560 42 22.6

Present Fleet Order book


Utilisation levels for drill ships, semi-subs andjack-ups were at 82%, 88% and 80%,respectively, in September 2011

Utilisation levels for drill ships and semi-subsincreased marginally during the month while

jack-ups saw a marginal decline in utilisation

The BPR Asia Pacific Shipbuilding Indexcontinued its downward trend and declined by23.6% in September 2011 to 402 levels after ithad earlier declined by 18.1% in August 2011



Freight Forward


Exhibit 16: Essar Shipping price movement

0

40

80

120

160

200


|

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

I n d e x

Essar Ports BDI


0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200


|

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

I n d e x

Essar Ports Dirty Tanker Index


Exhibit 17: GE Shipping price movement

0

100

200

300

400

500


|

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

I n d e x

GE Shipping BDI




Freight Forward


0

100

200

300

400

500


|

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

I n d e x

GE Shipping Dirty Tanker Index


Exhibit 18: Mercator Lines price movement

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


|

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

I n d e x

Mercator Lines BDI


0

20

40

60

80

100

120


|

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

I n d e x

Mercator Lines Dirty Tanker Index




Freight Forward


Exhibit 19: SCI price movement

0

50

100

150

200

250


|

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

I n d e x

SCI BDI


0

50

100

150

200

250


|

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

I n d e x

SCI Dirty Tanker Index


Exhibit 20: Varun Shipping price movement

0

20

40

60

80


|

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

I n d e x

Varun Shipping Dirty Tanker Index




Freight Forward


Exhibit 21: Aban Offshore price movement

0

600

1200

1800

2400

3000


|

0

30

60

90

120

150

$ p e r d a y

Aban Offshore Crude Oil Prices


Exhibit 22: Garware Offshore price movement

0

50

100

150

200

250


|

0

30

60

90

120

150

$ p e r d a y

Global Offshore Crude Oil Prices


Exhibit 23: Great Offshore price movement

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700


|

0

30

60

90

120

150

$ p e r d a y

Great Offshore Crude Oil Prices




Freight Forward


Exhibit 24: Seamec price movement

0

50

100

150

200

250

300


|

0

30

60

90

120

150

$ p e r d a y

SEAMEC Crude Oil Prices


Exhibit 25: ABG Shipyard price movement

0

100

200

300

400

500


|

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

I n d e x

ABG Shipyard Shipbuilding Index


Exhibit 26: Bharati Shipyard price movement

0

100

200

300

400


|

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

I n d e x

Bharati Shipyard Shipbuilding Index




Freight Forward


Global Valuations

CY10 CY11E CY12E CY10 CY11E CY12E CY10 CY11E CY12E CY10 CY11E CY12E

Dry Bulk

Diana Shipping* USA 0.8 0.8 0.8 7.5 7.9 12.8 5.6 5.7 7.0 11.2 9.5 5.9

DryShips* USA 0.5 0.5 0.5 4.8 5.1 4.6 8.1 6.8 5.5 5.6 7.5 7.9Genco Shipping* USA 0.3 0.3 0.3 2.5 10.6 - 6.2 7.7 9.2 13.2 3.5 -

Mercator Lines# India 0.3 0.3 0.3 13.7 6.8 3.5 5.2 3.7 2.8 2.1 4.1 7.5

Tanker

Frontline Ltd* Norway 2.5 1.6 1.7 13.4 - 38.4 9.1 11.2 9.8 20.2 - 1.0

Overseas Shipholding Group* USA 0.5 0.5 0.5 - - - 22.2 17.3 10.3 - - -

Teekay Corp.* USA 1.2 1.0 1.1 - - 39.0 11.7 11.3 9.7 - - 5.2

GE Shipping# India 0.7 0.6 0.6 7.6 8.3 5.7 7.8 8.9 6.2 9.0 7.8 10.3

SCI# India 0.5 0.5 0.5 6.0 17.3 15.6 8.4 11.5 7.5 7.4 2.7 3.0

LPG/LNG

Exmar* Belgium 1.3 1.2 1.2 - 54.6 17.5 12.5 11.7 10.9 5.2 7.7 9.7

Varun Shipping# India 0.4 0.6 1.1 19.3 - - 137.9 -98.2 53.6 1.8 - -

Offshore

Diamond Offshore* USA 2.9 2.2 2.1 11.9 10.4 12.5 6.3 6.0 6.6 24.5 22.0 17.1ENSCO* USA 1.4 1.0 1.1 16.2 14.4 9.2 9.1 9.3 5.5 9.0 8.2 11.8

Hercules Offshore* USA 0.7 0.8 0.9 - - - 8.7 8.8 8.5 - -

Transocean* USA 1.2 0.9 0.9 13.3 14.6 9.9 7.2 7.1 6.0 8.7 6.7 8.6

Aban Offshore# India 0.8 0.7 0.6 12.2 3.5 5.0 6.4 6.3 6.9 6.4 19.9 12.7

Global Offshore# India 0.7 0.6 0.6 7.4 8.3 10.1 8.4 7.5 7.2 9.2 7.7 6.0

Great Offshore# India 0.4 0.3 0.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 5.6 4.3 3.4 11.1 10.1 9.7

SEAMEC# India 0.8 0.8 0.8 - 22.1 22.7 - 3.0 1.8 - 3.4 3.2

Shipbuilding

Daewoo Shipbuilding* South Korea 2.0 1.9 1.6 10.0 10.5 12.0 8.3 7.8 9.4 21.5 18.5 14.2

Hyundai Heavy Industries* South Korea 3.1 1.9 1.6 11.8 8.6 9.0 11.7 8.5 8.9 30.3 24.8 19.5

Keppel Corp. Ltd* Singapore 2.8 2.8 2.5 15.3 14.3 13.0 13.3 11.5 10.3 19.6 18.3 18.1

Samsung Heavy Industries* South Korea 2.9 2.3 2.0 11.4 11.7 12.6 8.9 8.7 9.7 28.5 21.5 16.7

Sembcorp Marine* Singapore 5.3 4.0 3.5 16.7 15.9 15.9 10.6 9.7 9.5 34.4 25.9 23.8

ABG Shipyard# India 1.6 1.4 1.2 10.6 9.0 8.0 7.3 6.8 5.5 15.3 15.6 15.3

Bharati Shipyard# India 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.8 5.0 3.9 7.8 6.7 7.8 15.7 5.4 6.5

Port and Terminal

DP World* Dubai 1.5 1.3 1.2 4.5 25.4 19.6 14.2 12.9 11.5 4.5 5.3 6.2

Mundra Port*# India 9.3 6.0 4.7 46.4 25.3 17.9 35.5 17.9 13.1 20.2 25.9 29.4

Essar Ports# India 0.7 1.8 1.6 66.2 34.0 17.1 11.4 10.2 7.9 1.2 6.5 11.7

Conglomerate

A P Moller - Maersk A/S* Denmark 1.3 0.9 0.9 8.9 9.5 7.8 - 3.2 3.1 16.5 11.4 12.3

China COSCO* China 1.9 1.7 1.6 16.1 29.8 17.9 8.9 16.5 12.1 13.4 4.3 7.3

Kawasaki Kisen*# Japan 0.7 0.7 0.6 6.6 20.7 8.1 5.3 9.4 6.4 10.1 2.8 8.6

Mitsui OSK Lines*# Japan 0.8 0.7 0.7 9.2 16.0 8.7 6.3 8.6 6.7 9.0 4.7 8.2

Nippon Yusen*# Japan 0.7 0.7 0.6 7.1 13.5 8.4 5.8 7.5 6.1 10.8 5.2 8.3

*consensus

EV/EBITDA (x) ROE (%)

Company Country

P/BV (x) P/E (x)

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research # With regards to Indian companies and Mitsui, three year data represents FY11, FY12 and FY13 (financial year ending in March)



Freight Forward


ICICIdirect.com coverage universe (Shipping)

Essar Ports Sales (| Crore) EPS (|) PE (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoNW (%) RoCE (%)

Idirect Code ESSSHI CMP (|) 55 FY12E 1103.7 2.9 28.2 9.3 6.5 9.9

Target (|) 139 FY13E 1392.6 5.8 14.1 7.2 11.7 12.0MCap 2291 % Upside 153

G.E Shipping

Idirect Code GESHIP CMP (|) 245 FY11 2432.9 30.8 8.3 8.9 7.8 4.4

Target (|) 288 FY12E 2917.9 44.6 5.7 6.2 10.3 6.6

MCap 3724 % Upside 18 FY13E 3267.8 50.9 4.8 4.9 10.7 7.8

Mercator Lines

Idirect Code MERLIN CMP (|) 26 FY11 2828.9 1.9 21.4 5.7 2.1 5.8

Target (|) 40 FY12E 3257.7 3.8 9.7 3.5 4.5 7.3

MCap 614 % Upside 54 FY13E 3863.7 7.5 3.9 2.1 10.2 9.0

SCI

Idirect Code SCI CMP (|) 73 FY10 3543.4 12.2 8.7 10.6 7.4 2.0

Target (|) 80 FY11E 3355.9 4.2 18.8 12.5 3.6 1.1

MCap 3400 % Upside 10 FY12E 3520.7 4.7 17.9 8.5 3.7 2.7

Varun Shipping

Idirect Code VARSHI CMP (|) 19 FY11 491.4 1.0 20.3 138.6 1.8 -4.4

Target (|) 17 FY12E 466.4 -21.2 - -98.7 -65.2 -4.9

MCap 285 % Upside -11 FY13E 528.3 -14.9 - 53.9 -86.0 -2.4

Aban Offshore

Idirect Code ABALLO CMP (|) 405 FY11 3347.2 33.3 11.6 6.4 6.4 11.0

Target (|) 446 FY12E 3277.5 115.2 3.4 6.3 19.9 11.3

MCap 1762 % Upside 10 FY13E 2907.5 81.2 4.8 6.9 12.7 9.5

Global Offshore

Idirect Code GARSHI CMP (|) 83 FY11 201.6 11.2 10.4 9.2 9.2 6.2

Target (|) 122 FY12E 211.0 10.0 8.0 7.2 10.8 6.2

MCap 198 % Upside 47 FY13E 203.8 8.2 12.2 7.6 6.7 5.9Great Offshore

Idirect Code GREOFF CMP (|) 118 FY11 996.2 36.9 6.0 6.5 11.1 6.7

Target (|) 266 FY12E 940.4 37.5 5.9 5.2 10.1 8.4

MCap 438 % Upside 125 FY13E 987.9 39.5 5.6 4.3 9.7 8.6

SEAMEC

Idirect Code PEESHI CMP (|) 106 FY11 102.4 - - - - -

Target (|) - FY12E 169.0 4.6 22.1 3.0 3.4 1.5

MCap 359 % Upside - FY13E 161.3 4.5 22.7 1.8 3.2 0.7

ABG Shipyard

Idirect Code ABGSHI CMP (|) 403 FY11 2136.9 38.1 9.9 7.5 15.4 12.7

Target (|) 338 FY12E 2420.4 44.7 6.8 6.0 18.7 13.9

MCap 2051 % Upside -16 FY13E 2575.8 50.5 8.2 5.6 13.7 15.6

Bharati Shipyard

Idirect Code BHASHI CMP (|) 94 FY11 1581.1 51.1 1.7 7.7 15.7 10.3

Target (|) 92 FY12E 1248.6 18.6 4.6 6.7 5.4 10.7

MCap 274 % Upside -2 FY13E 1266.5 23.9 3.6 7.8 6.5 10.0

Source: ICICIdirect.com Research



Freight Forward


Glossary

Tankers

VLCC Very large crude carrier - capacity 300000 DWT

Suezmax Capacity 120000 to 200000 DWT

Aframax Capacity 80000 and 120000 in DWT

Small Tankers Capacity 10000 to 60000 DWT

Bulkers

Capesize Capacity 80000 to 200000 DWT

Panamax Capacity 60000 to 100000 DWT

Handymax Capacity 40000 to 60000 DWT

Handysize Capacity 10000 to 40000 DWT

Offshore

Drill ship Offshore drilling vessel capable to drill in water depths up to 6000 meter. (Deepwater drilling)

Semi submersible rig Offshore drilling vessel capable to drill in water depths up to 2000 meter. (Deepwater drilling)

Jack up rigOffshore drilling vessel capable to drill in water depths up to 350 meter. (Shallow water drilling)

AHTS Anchor handling tag supply vessel used for positioning of jack up rigs.

PSV Platform support vessel used for transport of men and material to oil platform and jack up rigs.

LPG

VLGC Very large gas carrier capacity 70000+ CBM

LGC Large sized gas carrier capacity 50000 - 70000 CBM

MGC Mid sized gas carrier capacity 20000 - 50000 CBM

Miscellaneous

DWT Dead weight tonne

LDT Light displacement tonne



Freight Forward

RATING RATIONALE

ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns ratings to its

stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them as Strong Buy, Buy,

Add, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined

as the analysts' valuation for a stock.

Sector view:

Over weight compared to index

Equal weight compared to index

Under weight compared to index

Index here refers to BSE 200

Pankaj Pandey Head - Research [email protected]

ICICIdirect.com Research Desk,ICICI Securities Limited,1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,

Road No. 7, MIDC

Andheri (East)

Mumbai – 400 093

[email protected]

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Documents

ICICIdirect_FreightForward_October2011