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ICAO Forecasts for Effective Planning and Implementation
Sijia Chen Economic Development
Air Transport Bureau, ICAO
Appendix C : Forecasting, planning and economic analyses
The Assembly: • Requests the Council to prepare and maintain, as necessary, forecasts of future trends and
developments in civil aviation of both a general and a specific kind, including, where possible, local
and regional as well as global data, and to make these available to Contracting States and support
data needs of safety, security, environment and efficiency
• Requests the Council to develop one single set of Long Term Traffic Forecasts, from which
customized or more detailed forecasts can be produced for various purposes, such as air navigation
systems planning and environmental analysis
Assembly Resolution A38-14
• The forecasts are critical to:
– effectively implement ICAO’s No Country Left Behind (NCLB) initiative
– estimate future trends of noise, emissions and particulate matter
– assess the operational and cost-effectiveness of air navigation systems including the Aviation System Block Upgrades (ASBU)
– assess licensed personnel and training requirement
– infrastructure planning and capacity building for improved safety of operations
• The forecasts are the basis for effective planning activities in States and ICAO.
• The development of the forecasts has taken into account the needs of States and the Organization and various ICAO entities.
3
Needs of Long-Term Traffic Forecasts (LTF)
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
Development of Long-term Traffic Forecasts
Main source: ICAO Air Transport Reporting Forms A, B and C submitted by States
Completed with data from national offices of statistics:
5
Data sources
US Department of Transportation (Bureau of Transportation Statistics)
Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (Australia)
Official Airline Guide (OAG)
AvStats (UK CAA)
90% of scheduled international passenger and 95% of Freight traffic covered by reported traffic
Cleaned OAG used to complement the data to arrive at 100% coverage
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Data sources for the Forecasts
Factors influencing air traffic demand
Air Traffic Demand = Function (Economic Growth, Cost, non-economic events …..) Macro-economic factors • GDP per capita (More disposable income per capita, higher demand for leisure travel) • Employment (Increasing economic activity and employment generating higher demand for business travel) • Population growth (Increasing population can drive travel demand) • International Trade (Cargo) Micro-economic factors (cost of travel) • Regulations (market access/ticket prices) • Infrastructure (transportation network, connections to airport, air traffic control, etc.) • Market structure (extent of airline competition) • Input costs (fuel, capital costs, labor costs etc.) Random non-economic factors • 2001 9/11 (North America and connected routes) • 2003 SARS (Asia and connected routes) • 2010 Iceland Volcano (Europe and connected routes) • 2011 Tsunami (Japan and connected routes)
6
7
Econometrics Modeling
Utilized panel model approach
Overcomes time series limitations and allows for using the entire dataset
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Passenger Traffic Demand Model
50 Route Groups 900 Observations
Passenger traffic demand model
Capture Key Economic Drivers
Traffic demand per capita = f(Income per capita, Cost) RPKPCt = f(GDPPCt , OilPricet)
Income and Cost – Real GDP Per Capita & Oil Prices
Transportation maturity
As countries income grows demand for air travel increases; transport infrastructure improves to allow for increased activity (Ishutkina and Hansman 2009)
As economies move from lower to higher income levels air demand growth will increase and then moderate (S-curve)
Forecast model needs to account for this transition of route groups
Basic Specification
Effects of 9/11 on air travel in the North America domestic, Intra north America and North Atlantic.
SARs epidemics in Asia for 2003 , etc.
Year Specific Event
8
Passenger Traffic Demand Model ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
9
• Forecast at regional level • Africa • Asia and Pacific • Europe • Latin America and the Caribbean • Middle East • North America
• Model Specification
• Individual ordinary least squares (OLS) regression was used for each region as it performed better than other approaches
• GDP and oil prices main explanatory variables
Cargo Traffic Demand Model ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
Cargo traffic demand model
Results of Long-term Traffic Forecasts
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
11
Global Passenger Traffic Forecasts
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Re
ven
ue
Pas
sen
ger
Kilo
mtr
es (
RP
K)
(tri
llio
ns)
International Domestic
History
Forecast
1995-2012
5.2%
2012-2032
4.6%
2012-2042
4.5%
38%
62%
59%
41%
42%
58%
Scheduled Services
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
12
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
13
Africa
0 50 100 150 200 250
Africa - Middle East
Europe - Sub Saharan Africa
Europe - North Africa
Africa - Asia/Pacific
Intra Africa
Africa Domestic
Africa - North America
Africa & Middle East - South America
Africa & Middle East - CentralAmerica/Caribbean
Revenue Passenger-Kilometres (RPK) (billion)
2042 2032 2012
4.7%
2.0%
3.3%
5.8%
4.3%
4.3%
3.1%
4.2%
4.3%
4.9%
2.1%
3.3%
6.1%
4.5%
4.5%
3.1%
3.8%
4.4%
11.9%
4.6%
8.6%
7.9%
7.1%
3.6%
8.3%
12.2%
19.2%
CAGR*
2012-2042 2012-2032 1995-2012
*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
14
Asia/Pacific
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000
Central South West Asia Domestic
Central South West Asia - Pacific South East Asia
Central South West Asia - Middle East
Pacific South East Asia Domestic
Central South West Asia - Europe
Intra Pacific South East Asia
Central South West Asia - North America
Central South West Asia - North Asia
Europe - Pacific South East Asia
Intra Central South West Asia
Middle East - North Asia & Pacific South East Asia
North Asia - Pacific South East Asia
North America - North Asia
North America - Pacific South East Asia
Europe - North Asia
North Asia Domestic
Africa - Asia/Pacific
Intra North Asia
Latin America/Caribbean - North Asia & Pacific South East…
Revenue Passenger-Kilometres (RPK) (billion)
2042 2032 2012
7.6%
7.4%
8.2%
5.1%
4.7%
5.1%
5.5%
7.7%
3.6%
7.7%
3.5%
3.6%
2.5%
4.1%
2.2%
1.4%
5.8%
1.4%
2.7%
8.8%
7.9%
8.6%
5.3%
5.2%
5.3%
6.3%
8.4%
3.8%
8.7%
3.7%
3.8%
2.6%
4.3%
2.3%
1.6%
6.1%
1.6%
2.9%
12.5%
6.8%
9.9%
8.1%
8.3%
4.7%
6.5%
5.1%
3.8%
9.3%
11.3%
2.3%
0.7%
3.9%
2.5%
0.7%
7.9%
4.4%
11.2%
CAGR*
2012-2042 2012-2032 1995-2012
*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
15
Europe
0 400 800 1,200
Intra Europe
Europe - North America
Central South West Asia - Europe
Europe Domestic
Europe - Middle East
Europe - Pacific South East Asia
Europe - South America
Europe - Sub Saharan Africa
Central America/Caribbean - Europe
Europe - North Africa
Europe - North Asia
Revenue Passenger-Kilometres (RPK) (billion)
2042 2032 2012
3.5%
3.7%
2.9%
3.5%
2.9%
4.2%
3.5%
4.0%
4.2%
4.2%
2.7%
6.7%
4.3%
3.2%
4.0%
3.0%
3.7%
3.2%
4.2%
3.2%
3.8%
4.2%
3.8%
2.9%
7.7%
4.4%
9.3%
6.1%
6.8%
4.4%
7.2%
5.1%
6.8%
10.6%
3.4%
12.2%
11.2%
0.0%
19.2%
CAGR*
2012-2042 2012-2032 1995-2012
*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
16
Latin America and the Caribbean
0 100 200 300 400
South America Domestic
Central America/Caribbean - North America
Europe - South America
North America - South America
Central America/Caribbean - Europe
Central America/Caribbean Domestic
Intra South America
Central America/Caribbean - South America
Intra Central America/Caribbean
Africa & Middle East - South America
Latin America/Caribbean - North Asia & Pacific…
Latin America/Caribbean - Central South West Asia
Africa & Middle East - Central America/Caribbean
Revenue Passenger-Kilometres (RPK) (billion)
2042 2032 2012
3.5%
3.7%
2.9%
3.5%
2.9%
4.2%
3.5%
4.0%
4.2%
4.2%
2.7%
6.7%
4.3%
3.2%
4.0%
3.0%
3.7%
3.2%
4.2%
3.2%
3.8%
4.2%
3.8%
2.9%
7.7%
4.4%
9.3%
6.1%
6.8%
4.4%
7.2%
5.1%
6.8%
10.6%
3.4%
12.2%
11.2%
0.0%
19.2%
CAGR*
2012-2042 2012-2032 1995-2012
*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
17
Middle East
0 300 600 900 1,200
Central South West Asia - Middle East
Europe - Middle East
Middle East - North Asia & Pacific South EastAsia
Africa - Middle East
Middle East - North America
Intra Middle East
Middle East Domestic
Africa & Middle East - South America
Africa & Middle East - CentralAmerica/Caribbean
Revenue Passenger-Kilometres (RPK) (billion)
2042 2032 2012
8.2%
2.9%
3.5%
4.7%
3.4%
4.4%
4.4%
4.2%
4.3%
8.6%
3.1%
3.7%
4.9%
3.6%
4.7%
4.7%
3.8%
4.4%
9.9%
8.8%
11.3%
11.9%
12.0%
10.2%
5.8%
12.2%
19.2%
CAGR*
2012-2042 2012-2032 1995-2012
*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
18
North America
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500
North America Domestic
Europe - North America
Central South West Asia - North America
Central America/Caribbean - North America
North America - North Asia
North America - South America
North America - Pacific South East Asia
Middle East - North America
Intra North America
Africa - North America
Revenue Passenger-Kilometres (RPK) (billion)
2042 2032 2012
2.9%
2.7%
5.5%
3.7%
2.5%
3.5%
4.1%
3.4%
2.9%
3.1%
3.0%
2.8%
6.3%
4.0%
2.6%
3.7%
4.3%
3.6%
3.0%
3.1%
2.5%
3.1%
6.5%
6.1%
0.7%
4.4%
3.9%
12.0%
4.9%
8.3%
CAGR*
2012-2042 2012-2032 1995-2012
*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
19
Cargo Traffic Forecasts
Summary of Total Cargo Traffic Forecasts by Region of Airline Registration
(Scheduled Services)
Cargo traffic results in terms of FTKs
Region CAGR*
Flight Stage 2012-2022 2012-2032 2012-2042
Europe Total 2.9% 2.6% 2.4%
International 2.9% 2.6% 2.4%
Domestic 0.2% 0.8% 1.0%
Africa Total 1.6% 2.1% 2.2%
International 1.6% 2.1% 2.2%
Domestic 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Middle East Total 6.6% 7.1% 6.9%
International 6.6% 7.1% 6.9%
Domestic 1.4% 0.7% 0.5%
Asia and Pacific Total 5.7% 5.1% 4.7%
International 5.2% 4.7% 4.3%
Domestic 8.7% 7.8% 7.0%
North America Total 2.7% 2.5% 2.6%
International 3.7% 3.5% 3.4%
Domestic 0.8% 0.7% 0.6%
Latin America and the Caribbean Total 3.1% 2.9% 2.8%
International 3.4% 3.1% 3.0%
Domestic 2.0% 1.7% 1.6%
WORLD Total scheduled 4.4% 4.3% 4.2%
International 4.5% 4.4% 4.2%
Domestic 3.9% 4.0% 4.0%
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
20
Global RTK Forecasts ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
Forecasts for Aviation Planning
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
22
Forecast for Aviation Planning
Use of traffic forecasts
Air navigation systems planning
Aircraft movements
Airport planning
Aircraft movements
Airport passengers
Licensed personnel
Airline planning
Planning of routes and services
Fleet planning
Estimation of airline’s market share
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
Forecasts can be used as the base to produce customized or more detailed forecasts for various purposes, such as air navigation systems planning and environmental analysis.
Forecasts can also serve as an input to environment for critical tasks such as trend analysis, assessment and development of fleet forecasts.
23
Air navigation systems planning
Estimates of Aircraft Movements • Passenger forecasts are converted into aircraft movements taking into account fleet mix and
average load factors • forecasts of aircraft movements in a particular route group can be derived from forecasts of
passengers, and assumptions about future trends in load factors and average aircraft size. The link between these variables is given by:
𝑨𝒊𝒓𝒄𝒓𝒂𝒇𝒕 𝑴𝒐𝒗𝒆𝒎𝒆𝒏𝒕 =𝑷𝒂𝒔𝒔𝒆𝒏𝒈𝒆𝒓 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓𝒔 𝒇𝒐𝒓𝒆𝒄𝒂𝒔𝒕𝒔
𝑳𝒐𝒂𝒅 𝒇𝒂𝒄𝒕𝒐𝒓 ∗ 𝑨𝒊𝒓𝒄𝒓𝒂𝒇𝒕 𝒔𝒊𝒛𝒆
where:
𝐿𝑜𝑎𝑑 𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟 =𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑎𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑛𝑔𝑒𝑟𝑠 𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑟𝑖𝑒𝑑
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑠𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑠 𝑜𝑓𝑓𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝐴𝑖𝑟𝑐𝑟𝑎𝑓𝑡 𝑠𝑖𝑧𝑒 =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑠𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑠 𝑜𝑓𝑓𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑑
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑖𝑟𝑐𝑟𝑎𝑓𝑡
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
24
Airport Planning
Estimates of Aircraft Movements
Airport Passengers
• break down passenger forecasts into passengers using the arrival and departure facilities (e.g. check-in, baggage collection, customs and immigration) and passengers using transfer or transit facilities (e.g. cafeterias and transit lounges)
• The factors that influence the number of originating/terminating passengers at an airport will differ from those affecting the number of direct transit and transfer passengers
• Analyze passenger forecasts by traffic category
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
25
Airline Planning (Routes and Services)
Planning of routes and services
• Total market outlook for domestic and international markets estimated in LTF forecasts
• Internationally, the traffic rights granted by governments in bilateral agreements provide the basis for the operation of an airline’s scheduled route system, the expansion of operations and the serving of new routes
• Traffic coming from, or destined for, other points should be taken into account as part of demand for traffic between two airports
• Competition between carriers or airline alliances is one of the most important elements in route and service planning
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
26
Airline Planning (Fleet Planning)
Fleet planning can be described as the act of determining future fleet requirements and the timing of aircraft acquisitions
Three approaches are commonly used in airline fleet planning efforts. They can be categorized as the macro-evaluation method, the schedule-evaluation method and the aircraft-assignment method
Macro-evaluation method : The macro-evaluation method is a multi-year system analysis wherein the number of various types of aircraft required is determined based on a macro-traffic forecast. There are several steps in the macro-evaluation method: a) Forecast aggregate passenger/freight traffic. b) Convert traffic forecast to a capacity forecast based on load factor assumptions. c) Project the capacity available from the current fleet. d) Calculate the additional requirements for growth and replacement, considering the fleet mix, aircraft productivity and system characteristics.
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
Future Work in Aviation Forecasts
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
• Develop an electronic interface allowing States and other users to generate customized forecasts at
different levels of granularity (for example, by route, by country-pair, by State of departure, by airport);
• Customize forecast results/data required for the Environment to develop its fleet forecasts, trends and
assessment activities;
• Customize forecast results/data required for air navigation service planning and assessment activities
at a global and regional level; and
• Updated global and regional twenty year forecasts for pilots, maintenance personnel and air traffic
controllers (DOC 9956) in April 2018 to meet the needs of the ICAO Next Generation Aviation
Professional (NGAP) programme.
28
Future work in aviation forecasts
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
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