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Date:
Federal Aviation Administration
ICAO ConOps for
Space Weather (SWx) Information in support
of Aviation Operations
InterProgramme Coordination Team on Space Weather (ICTSW)
Mark Gunzelman, AvMet Applications Inc.
29 April 2011
WMO Interprogramme Coordination Team on SWx Meeting 2 Federal Aviation Administration 29 April 2011
Agenda • WHY Do We Care? • “Executive” Summary • Challenge & Activities in Response to ICAO Task • Highlights of ConOps • ConOps Synergy with ICTSW Objectives • Summary – Big Picture Timeline
WMO Interprogramme Coordination Team on SWx Meeting 3 Federal Aviation Administration 29 April 2011
WHY Do We Care? • ICAO and WMO :
– Recognized the importance of space weather and its impact on aviation
– LongHaul CrossPolar flights achieve greater operational efficiency over the N & S Poles
• Space Weather Impacts: – ICAO Annex 11 Internat’l Flight Communication – FAR 121.99 Domestic Flight Communications – Errors in Avionics Output for Navigation – Radiation Exposure to Flight Crew/Passengers
WMO Interprogramme Coordination Team on SWx Meeting 4 Federal Aviation Administration 29 April 2011
Background – Perspective of Importance • International Operators that operate high latitude:
• Averaged Annual Number of polar operations for 2008 and 2010: 7965 (347 flights/yr increase)
• Total # of Flights from 20002010: 45,249
United Airlines Singapore Airlines Delta Airlines Korean Air Lines
Continental Air Lines Air China American Airlines Emirates Airlines
Cathay Pacific Airways UPS – did ‘one’ flight Air Canada China Eastern Airlines
Japan Airlines Asiana Air Lines All Nippon Airways Eva Airways
WMO Interprogramme Coordination Team on SWx Meeting 5 Federal Aviation Administration 29 April 2011
Traffic Density of Polar Routes
402
841 776 884
2053
3731
5308
6357
7999
7240
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Polar 1
Polar 2
Polar 3
Polar 4
Polar 5
Total
Courtesy of Mike Stills of United Airlines
WMO Interprogramme Coordination Team on SWx Meeting 6 Federal Aviation Administration 29 April 2011
Executive Summary • ICAO Tasks to IAVWOPSG (coordinate with ad hoc team)
– Develop training “Manual” on SWx and its effects on aviation operations (SWPC)
– Develop SWx Requirements (US lead International AdHoc WG) • Two ConOPS developed to support Requirements:
– International “Current” User Needs ConOPS (2016) – NextGen “Mid and FarTerm” Capabilities ConOPS (20202035)
• Both ConOPS cover endtoend product and service Requirements for Aviation operations (20162035)
• WMO take ownership of current Operational Requirements when tasked by ICAO once SARP to Annex 3 done (2016)
• Both ConOPS support global harmonization via a single global standard
WMO Interprogramme Coordination Team on SWx Meeting 7 Federal Aviation Administration 29 April 2011
Challenge • ICAO Task International Volcanic Ash Operations Working Group (IVAOPSWG) to: – assist the Secretariat to develop a global safety risk management framework that will make it possible to determine the safe levels of operation in airspace where solar storm events are anticipated to degrade communications, navigation and increase radiation exposure levels to crew and passengers.
WMO Interprogramme Coordination Team on SWx Meeting 8 Federal Aviation Administration 29 April 2011
Define the Impact • Solar Storms and Radio Blackouts
– Communications • Lost of HF and VHF • Lost of GPS above 82N Latitude
– Diversion to more southern routes – More fuel costs, longer flight routes – Reduce passenger and cargo load
– Navigation • Erroneous positioning – avionics systems affected
– Highly ionizing interactions with solar rays and particles • Software errors due to single event upsets in RAM chips
– Radiation • Increase exposure to flight crews and passengers
WMO Interprogramme Coordination Team on SWx Meeting 9 Federal Aviation Administration 29 April 2011
Define Solar Storm Event & Process • Established NOAA Storm Scale Type Index
– Globally acceptance • Geomagnetic Storms (G1 – G5) • Radiation Storms (S1 – S5) • Radio Blackouts (R1 – R5)
• Establish global acceptable procedures based upon Event Index? – Consistency in message/graphic format – SWPC potential hub for products and services
• RMCs disseminate information/coordination with pilots
WMO Interprogramme Coordination Team on SWx Meeting 10 Federal Aviation Administration 29 April 2011
ESTABLISHMENT OF THE NEED
ICAO/International Guidance Government
SWxOPERATIONAL PERFORMANCE PARAMETERS
Aviation Users & Stakeholders
Space Weather Requirements are Generated From Needs or Capability Shortfalls. Needs Are Established By Aviation Users In ColloborationWith, And Validation From International, Government, and Industry Sources.
Dispatch Aircraft
Operations
Pre‐flight Briefing
Airport Operations
Aviation Industry
Pilots
WMO
Survey
Analysis
WMO Interprogramme Coordination Team on SWx Meeting 11 Federal Aviation Administration 29 April 2011
Define the Need User Service Needs (REQUIREMENTS)
• CPWG Draft Document for endorsement – pending – Observations, Forecast and Climatology
• FAA SWx Aviation Working Group (AWG) Requirements Efforts – Expertise ... FAA Cheryl Souders NextGen Requirements Lead
Types of Reporting “When to leverage Terrestrial Wx format?” • Warnings/Alert/Update Msgs
– Leverage Terrestrial infrastructure/format whenever possible? – SWx impacts across all FIRS vice individual FIRs
– Format of Advisories Post Event Analysis Pilot/Industry Reporting Feedback
WMO Interprogramme Coordination Team on SWx Meeting 12 Federal Aviation Administration 29 April 2011
Activities toward ICAO Tasks • IAVWOPSG Ad Hoc group working SWx issues:
– International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) – Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen)
• US Lead Ad hoc working Conclusion 5/19 with: – Argentina, Australia, Canada, France, New Zealand, UK, US (Rapporteur), IATA, IFALPA, in consultation with ICAO and WMO
WMO Interprogramme Coordination Team on SWx Meeting 13 Federal Aviation Administration 29 April 2011
Concept of Operations (ConOPS)
for International
Space Weather Information in
Support of Aviation
June 2011 Version 1.0
WMO Interprogramme Coordination Team on SWx Meeting 14 Federal Aviation Administration 29 April 2011
Highlights of ConOps (1) The progression of the development of space weather
support associated with space weather (SWx) products and services to address communications, navigation and radiation exposure impacts on aviation operations;
(2) The Aviation User Needs developed from the CrossPolar Working Group;
(3) Space weather observations, forecast and analysis for various solar events linked to Space Weather Scale for intensity and frequency of occurrence;
(4) An Operational scenario, and (5) The operational & incremental functional requirements.
WMO Interprogramme Coordination Team on SWx Meeting 15 Federal Aviation Administration 29 April 2011
ConOps Synergy with ICTWS Objectives
• International Civil Aviation Organization • Develop space weather training materials (SWPC) • Develop operational requirements for SWx information (IAVWOPSG AdHoc Group addressing Conclusion 5/19)
•Coordinate operational service and data requirements with WMO team (Coordination Email from US Rapporteur 20 April)
• Coordination Team CoChairs (Terry Onsager & Xiaoxin Zhang) • Barbara Ryan (Director WMO Space Programme)
• ConOps Addressing WMO SWx Team Efforts (SWx Information)
•Coordinate AUN service requirements with ICAO team
•Identify observations required to provide services (Functional Req’mts)
•Standardize data exchange (Global Harmonization stressed)
•Harmonize end products and services (Single Standard)
Example: ICAO – WMO Coordination
WMO Interprogramme Coordination Team on SWx Meeting 16 Federal Aviation Administration 29 April 2011
Aviation Current User Needs 20 Aviation User Need (AUN) statements have been defined:
AUN1 Define the impacts of space weather AUN2 Provide the following types of information: Observations, Forecasts, and Climatology AUN3 Provide information in text and graphical format AUN4 Present information using standardized format and content AUN5 Describe/display the severity of impact in standardized text and graphical reports AUN6 Provide text and graphical reports using specified timelines and durations AUN7 Provide an estimate of the accuracy of the information AUN8 State the regions affected AUN9 Utilize stated transmission methods for space weather reports AUN10 Provide information on disruptions to HF communications AUN11 Provide information on disruptions to VHF communications AUN12 Provide information on disruptions to UHF communications AUN13 Provide information on fading and loss of lock to Satcom AUN14 Provide information on the radiation environment that will affect avionics AUN15 Provide information on the radiation environment that will affect humans AUN16 Provide Information on the accuracy and availability that will affect GNSS AUN17 Define space weather information & decisionmaker matrices AUN18 Define communication and integration of space weather information AUN19 Provide space weather education and training AUN20 Use global standards for space weather information
WMO Interprogramme Coordination Team on SWx Meeting 17 Federal Aviation Administration 29 April 2011
The information and the observed effects on disruptions to HF communications are provided to allow for different aviation
operational windows and flow control/spacing procedures, especially in
polar operations. The following description of impact and specified information are defined as needed.
1. The Provider State(s) shall quantify the severity of the solar event to HF disruption as set forth in the NOAA Storm Scale or an established international severity index scale.
2. The Provider State(s) shall provide the related information based upon the severity on signal strength/loss, clarity and available or best useable frequencies.
3. The Provider State(s) shall define the timelines and durations of HF disruption with the following information:
a. A “valid from” time frame shall be provided b. A duration or “ valid to” time frame shall be provided c. Ongoing changes shall be provided as part of any Update Report d. Any “confidence levels” shall be provided e. Current condition reports shall be provided 4. The Provider State(s) shall define the forecast accuracy for HF disruption in a text or graphic
report. a. In the future, space weather forecast conditions shall meet the defined reliability percentage
(%) confidence levels for these timeframes and types of reports: 1. 7 days 65% 2. 3 days 75% 3. 30 hours 85% 4. 12 hours – 95% 5. 6 hours – 95% 6. Alerts – 95% 7. Updates – 95% 8. PEA – 99% 5. The Provider State(s) shall recognize the geomagnetic geographic latitude region(s) defined
in Appendix E for the HF disruption in regard to their products and service messages.
To maximize operational efficiency and cost benefit for the aviation industry through global harmonization of Space Weather information delivered in a global standard framework
Operational Requirement Functional Requirement Reason for Requirement
WMO Interprogramme Coordination Team on SWx Meeting 18 Federal Aviation Administration 29 April 2011
ConOps Synergy with ICTWS Objectives
• International Civil Aviation Organization • Develop space weather training materials (SWPC) • Develop operational requirements for SWx information (IAVWOPSG AdHoc Group addressing Conclusion 5/19)
•Coordinate operational service and data requirements with WMO team (Coordination Email from US Rapporteur 20 April)
• Coordination Team CoChairs (Terry Onsager & Xiaoxin Zhang) • Barbara Ryan (Director, WMO Space Programme)
• ConOps Addressing WMO SWx Team Efforts (SWx Information)
•Coordinate Aviation User service Needs (AUNs) with ICAO team
•Identify observations required to provide services (Functional Req’mts)
•Standardize data exchange (Global Harmonization stressed)
•Harmonize end products and services (Single Standard)
Example: ICAO – WMO Coordination
WMO Interprogramme Coordination Team on SWx Meeting 19 Federal Aviation Administration 29 April 2011
Figure 7
WMO Interprogramme Coordination Team on SWx Meeting 20 Federal Aviation Administration 29 April 2011
Summary BIG Picture Timeline • Submit ConOps/Requirements to IAVWOPSG for consideration at September 2011 Meeting #6
• Adopt as SWx RoadMap and staff among Member States – Feedback spring 2012
• 2nd round of review/comments by end of CY12 • Discussion at Meeting #7 in March 2013 • Establish a ‘Mature’ set of Requirements • Agenda item for Amendment 76 Mtg – Nov 2013
– Approval pending last issues to be addressed/resolved for performing SARP at next Amendment Meeting
• Approval at Decadal Divisional Mtg – 2014 • SARP in Wx Annex 3 @ Amendment 77–Nov 2016
WMO Interprogramme Coordination Team on SWx Meeting 21 Federal Aviation Administration 29 April 2011
Questions
