Ib demo russia - radiators market_september 2012

Барыковский п-к, д.4, стр.2, офис 201

Москва, 119034

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Demo-Version

Russia: Radiators

Market

Analysis and Forecast to 2017

September 2012

Marketing Research

http://www.russianmarketreport.com





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Brief Overview

The report on the radiators market in Russia contains:

Analysis and forecast of market dynamics

The structure of consumption by region

Analysis of domestic production, market shares of the main participants

Analysis of exports and imports

Assessment and forecast of market development

Financial and economic indicators of the industry

Profiles of the main manufacturers

Methodology:

Expert interviews with top managers of the largest players

Analysis of submissions from market participants

Analysis of statistical information, Rosstat, FEA.

The report will allow you to:

1. Identify key indicators of the market, build your own business forecasts, based on

market data

2. Evaluate the growth potential and threats in the market

Key Figures presented in the report on the Russian radiators market

The volumes of production, exports and imports

Key market indicators

Volume and characteristics of consumption

The report contains the consensus market forecast based on the average value of the

forecasts of market participants. As market experts are considered: manufacturers,

importers, wholesale distributors, high-volume consumers, professional associations and

unions, and trade publications. The experts, participating in the survey, are provided with

special conditions on the purchase of the reports.



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completed over 1000 industry studies which are updated on a regular basis.

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verify all secondary information used in the report.

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Research Design

The purpose of the study is to analyze the state of the Russian radiators market and build a

forecast of the industry in the medium term.

Geography of the research: Russia

Methodology

1. Analysis of secondary market data:

Secondary data refers to data from the Internet (industry portals, competitors’ sites,

shopping sites, articles and reviews, reference materials), specialized publications, state and

private media companies, marketing agencies, commercial databases, “IndexBox

Marketing” own research.

2. Analysis of Materials from Market Participants (price lists, brochures, etc.):

Data collection from market participants is needed to analyze the specifics of the market

and the parties involved in it, their pricing and assortment policy. Data on market

participants is gathered during the analysis of secondary information, and also by sending

requests for price lists and other presentation materials.

3. Expert Interviews with Market Participants

The analysis of secondary information is completed by expert interviews with

representatives of market participant companies – manufacturers and trading companies.

Our approach to the estimation

The consensus market forecast is the average value of the forecasts of market participants

(experts).

Experts

As market experts are considered: manufacturers, importers, wholesale distributors, high-

volume consumers, professional associations and unions, and trade publications. Expert

opinions are collected during telephone interviews conducted by IndexBox on a regular

basis (the standard is every six months, but can be more often, based on a special request

or under conditions of high volatility in the market). IndexBox has created an extensive

database of experts within key industries. The experts, participating in the survey, are

provided with special conditions on the purchase of the reports.



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Accuracy of forecasts

The accuracy of forecasts is verified by experts in the given industry, based on the historical

period (3 years). In accordance with this accuracy, each expert weighs out the forecasts to

create the overall average forecast

Indicators

1. Consumption: Consumption is the main index estimated by our experts and features

the dynamics of consumption in real terms in the short to medium term. Experts give

an estimate of the potential volume of consumption in accordance with their

expectations and production plans (for manufacturers).

2. Internal production: It is based on the projected volume of consumption and production

capacity in any given industry, assessing, of course, and factoring in the dynamics of

domestic production.

3. Imports and Exports: Takes into account the retrospective dynamics of export-import

operations, strengths and weaknesses of the domestic production, changes in

legislation, the macroeconomic situation in the countries of the supplier (beneficiary) of

a product, an assessment of the dynamics of imports and exports.



Market Research

Table of Contents

About IndexBox

1. Executive Summary

2. Study Design

3. Radiators classification

4. Characteristics of the Russian radiators market

4.1 Volume and dynamics of the Russian radiators market in 2007 – 2010. Forecast

for 2011 - 2015

4.2 Structure of the radiators market: production, exports, imports, consumption

4.3 Level of concentration and characteristics of competitiveness on the market

5. Characteristics of the domestic radiators production in 2005 – 2010. Forecast

for 2011 - 2017

5.1 Volume and dynamics of radiators production in 2005 – 2010.

5.2 Structure of radiators production by Federal Districts of the Russian Federation

5.3 Production capacities of the enterprises and their level of loading

5.4 Main radiators manufacturers and their corresponding market shares

5.4.1 OJSC “Santehlit”

5.4.2 OJSC “Nizhnetagilskij Boiler and Radiator Plant”

5.4.3 OJSC “Santehprom”

5.4.4 OJSC “Cheboksary Aggregate Plant”

5.4.5 OJSC “Rifar”

5.4.6 OJSC “Miass Machinery Building Plant”

5.4.7 OJSC “SANLIT-T”

5.4.8 OJSC “Izhevsk Plant for Thermal Equipment”

6. Characteristics of the radiators prices

6.1 Dynamics of the manufacturers prices of radiators and heating convectors

7. Characteristics of the imports of radiators on the Russian market

7.1 Volume and dynamics of the imports of radiators

7.2 Producing countries, leading suppliers of radiators to the territory of the Russian

Federation

7.3 Foreign companies, manufacturers of radiators and heating convectors, imported

to Russia

7.4 Russian companies, recipients of the imported radiators and heating convectors

8. Characteristics of the Russian exports of radiators

8.1 Volume and dynamics of the exports of radiators

8.2 Recipient countries of the Russian exports of radiators

8.3 Manufacturing companies, supplying radiators for exports

9. Factors, influencing the development of the Russian radiators market

9.1 State of the construction industry

9.2 Construction activity

9.3 Residential construction




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9.4 Non-residential construction

9.5 Level of income of the population

10. Characteristics of radiators consumption

10.1 Volume and dynamics of radiators and heating convectors consumption in 2007 –

2010. Forecast for 2011 - 2015

10.2 Volume and structure of radiators and heating convectors consumption by

Federal Districts of the Russian Federation in 2005 – 2010.

10.3 Structure of radiators consumption by types of radiators in 2008 - 2010

11. Forecast for the development of the radiators market in 2011 - 2017

11.1 Evaluation of the potential volume of radiators supply in 2011 - 2017

Appendix 1 Financial and economic indicators of the industry

Appendix 2 Profiles of the main manufacturers



Market Research

List of Tables

Table 1 Dynamics of the structure of radiators and heating convectors market by origin in

value terms in 2007 - 2010, in millions of RUR

Table 2 Dynamics of production of radiators and heating convectors by types in 2005 -

2010, in thousands of kW

Table 3 Dynamics of production of radiators and heating convectors by types in 2005 -

2010, in thousands of units

Table 4 Production of radiators and heating convectors in January 2005 - July 2011, in MW

Table 5 Production of radiators and heating convectors in 2009 - July 2011, in millions of

RUR

Table 6 Production of radiators and heating convectors by Federal Districts in 2005 - 2010,

in thousands of kW

Table 7 Usage of the average annual capacity for the production of radiators and heating

convectors in 2003 - 2010 by Federal Regions, in %

Table 8 Dynamics of production by manufacturers in 2005 - 2010, in thousands of kW

Table 9 Volume of sales of OJSC "SANTEHLIT" in 2008 - 2010

Table 10 Volume of sales of OJSC "SANTEHLIT"

Table 11 Geography of product deliveries by OJSC "SANTEHLIT" in 2010

Table 12 Production of commodity products by OJSC “NTKRZ” in 2009 - 2010

Table 13 Production of the OJSC "SANTEHPROM" in 2008 - 2010

Table 14 Volume and structure of the production of OJSC “CHAZ” in current prices in 2009 -

2010

Table 15 Results of the financial and economic activities of the OJSC “CHAZ” in 2009- 2010

Table 16 Production of radiators by the CJSC "RIFAR" in 2007 - 2010, in thousands of kW

Table 17 Key financial and economic indicators of the OJSC "MMZ MASHZAVOD" in 2008 -

2011

Table 18 Structure of the production of OJSC "MMZ MASHZAVOD" in 2008 - 2011, in

thousands of RUR

Table 19 Share of the OJSC "MMZ MASHZAVOD" in the total production volume, in %

Table 20 Dynamics of changes in the net profit of OJSC "MMZ MASHZAVOD" in 2008 - 2011,

in thousands of RUR

Table 21 Key financial and economic indicators of the OJSC "MMZ MASHZAVOD" in 2009 -

2010, in thousands of RUR

Table 22 Production of radiators by the LLC “SANLIT-T” in 2007 - 2010, in thousands of kW

Table 23 Production of radiators by the LLC “Izhevsk Plant for Thermal Equipment” in 2007-

2010, in thousands of kW

Table 24 Average manufacturers’ prices of radiators and heating convectors in Russia in

January 2008 - July 2011

Table 25 Dynamics of the imports of radiators and heating convectors in Russia in January

2010 - May 2011, in tons

Table 26 Dynamics of the imports of radiators and heating convectors in Russia in January

2010 - May 2011, in thousands of USD



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Table 27 Volume of the imports of radiators and heating convectors by manufacturing

countries in 2010, in tons


countries in 2010, in thousands of USD


countries in January - May 2011, in tons


countries in January - May 2011, in thousands of USD


companies in 2010, in tons


companies in 2010, in thousands of USD


companies in January - May 2011, in tons


companies in January - May 2011, in thousands of USD

Table 35 Volume of the imports of radiators and heating convectors by importing companies

in 2010, in tons


in 2010, in thousands of USD


in January - May 2011, in tons


in January - May 2011, in thousands of USD

Table 39 Structure of the Russian exports of radiators and heating convectors by recipient





countries in January - May 2011, in tons


countries in January - May 2011, in thousands of USD

Table 43 Structure of the Russian exports of radiators and heating convectors by

manufacturing companies in 2010, in tons


manufacturing companies in 2010, in thousands of USD


manufacturing companies in January - May 2011, in tons


manufacturing companies in January - May 2011, in thousands of USD

Table 47 Index of the average prices on the primary real estate market in 2001 - 2010, in

%, in the end of the quarter to the end of the previous quarter

Table 48 Dynamics of the volume of construction works in 2008 - 2010



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Table 49 Dynamics of commissioning of residential buildings in 2008 - 2010, in millions of

square meters

Table 50 Construction of residential buildings by Federal subjects of the Russian Federation

in 2010, in thousands of square meters

Table 51 Commissioning of non-residential buildings by type in the Russian Federation in

2004 - 2010

Table 52 Real income of the population, in %, to the previous year, 2000 - 2009

Table 53 Dynamics of the disposable incomes of households (100 people) in the Russian

Federation in 2000 - 2009, in thousands of RUR

Table 54 Differentiation of incomes in 2005 - 2010

Table 55 Deviation of the incomes by Federal Districts of the Russian Federation from the

average in 2004 - 2009

Table 56 Forecast for the development of the radiators and heating convectors market in

2011 - 2017, in millions of RUR

Table 57 Revenues (net) from sales of goods, works, services (minus value added tax,

excise duties and similar charges) for the production of radiators in the Federal Regions of

the Russian Federation, in thousands of RUR

Table 58 Revenues (net) from sales of goods, works, services (minus value added tax,

excise duties and similar charges) for the production of radiators

Table 59 Commercial expenses for the production of radiators by organization's size, in

thousands of RUR

Table 60 Administrative expenses for the production of radiators by organization's size, in

thousands of RUR

Table 61 Costs of goods sold for the production of radiators by organization's size, in

thousands of RUR

Table 62 Profit (gross) from sales for the production of radiators by organization's size, in

thousands of RUR

Table 63 The average number of employees for the production of structural metal products,

metal tanks, radiators and central heating boilers in the Russian Federation



Market Research

List of Figures

Fig. 1 Volume of the radiator and heating convectors market in 2007 - 2010 and forecast for

2011 - 2015F, in millions of RUR

Fig. 2 Structure of the radiator and heating convectors market by origin in value terms in

2010, in millions of RUR

Fig. 3 Dynamics of the production of radiators and heating convectors in 2005 - 2010, in

thousands of kW

Fig. 4 Structure of the production of radiators and heating convectors in 2010 by types, in

thousands of kW

Fig. 5 Dynamics of the production of radiators and heating convectors in 2005 - 2010 by

types, in thousands of kW

Fig. 6 Dynamics of the production of radiators and heating convectors in 2005 - 2010, in

thousands of units

Fig. 7 Production of radiators and heating convectors in January 2010 - July 2011, in MW

Fig. 8 Production of radiators and heating convectors in January 2010 - July 2011, in

millions of RUR

Fig. 9 Structure of the production of radiators and heating convectors by Federal Districts of

the Russian Federation in 2010, in physical terms

Fig. 10 Structure of the production of radiators and heating convectors by Federal Districts

of the Russian Federation in 2005 - 2010, in physical terms

Fig. 11 Utilization of the manufacturing capacity for the production of radiators and heating

convectors by Federal Districts in 2010, in %

Fig. 12 Level of utilization of average annual manufacturing capacity for the production of

radiators and heating convectors in 2003 - 2010, in %

Fig. 13 Indexes of average manufacturers’ price of radiators and heating convectors in

Russia in January - December 2010

Fig. 14 Indexes of average manufacturers’ price of radiators and heating convectors in

Russia in January - July 2011

Fig. 15 Dynamics of the average manufacturers’ prices of radiators and heating convectors

in Russia in January 2010 - July 2011, in %, compared to the same period of the previous

year

Fig. 16 Dynamics of the imports of radiators and heating convectors in Russia in January

2010 - May 2011, in tons





Fig. 19 Structure of the imports of radiators and heating convectors in Russia by

manufacturing countries in 2010, in tons


manufacturing countries in 2010, in thousands of USD



Market Research





Fig. 23 Dynamics of the Russian exports of radiators and heating convectors in January

2010 - May 2011, in tons

Fig. 24 Dynamics of the Russian exports of radiators and heating convectors in January


Fig. 25 Structure of the Russian exports of radiators and heating convectors by recipient


Fig. 26 Structure of the Russian exports of radiators and heating convectors by recipient


Fig. 27 Structure of the Russian exports of radiators and heating convectors by


Fig. 28 Structure of the Russian exports of radiators and heating convectors by


Fig. 29 Dynamics of the volume of construction works in 2008 – 2010, in billions of RUR

Fig. 30 Quarterly dynamics of the volume of construction works in 2008 - 2010, in billions of

RUR

Fig. 31 Volume of construction works in 2008 - 2010, in %, to the analogical period of the

previous year

Fig. 32 Dynamics of commissioning of residential buildings in 2008 - 2010, in millions of

square meters

Fig. 33 Quarterly dynamics of the commissioning of residential buildings in Russia in 2008 -

2010, in millions of square meters

Fig. 34 Commissioning of residential buildings and the share of individual construction in the

total commissioned area in 1991 - 2010, in millions of square meters of total area

Fig. 35 Structure of the volume of construction of residential buildings by Federal subjects

of the Russian Federation in 2010, in thousands of square meters

Fig. 36 Dynamics of the levels of income of the population in 2000 - 2009

Fig. 37 Distribution of the total income of the population in 2010 by groups

Fig. 38 Average deviation of the per capita income by Federal Districts of the Russian

Federation from the average in 2000 – 2009

Fig. 39 Dynamics of the consumption of radiators and heating convectors in 2007 - 2010

and forecast for 2011 - 2015, in millions of RUR

Fig. 40 Consumption of radiators and heating convectors by Federal Districts in 2010

Fig. 41 Dynamics of the consumption of radiators and heating convectors by Federal

Districts in 2005 – 2010

Fig. 42 Structure of radiators consumption by types in 2010

Fig. 43 Forecast for the development of the radiators and heating convectors market in

2011 - 2017, in millions of RUR



Market Research

Executive Summary

…

The volume of supply on the Russian radiators and heating convectors market in 2010 was

… billion RUR, which was …% higher than in 2009.

The Russian production of radiators in 2010 was … MW. The main trend on the water

heating radiators market in 2010 was reducing the segment of cast iron radiators and

increasing the segment of steel radiators and converters: the share of iron ones was

reduced with …% (from …% to …%), while the share of steel ones increased by …% (from

…% to …%).

The volume of imports of radiators to the Russian market in 2010 was … tons. The import

figures clearly reflect the seasonality of the market. Thus, the highest levels of imports were

in May - September 2010. Most of the imported radiators to the Russian Federation come

from Germany, China and Belarus.

…

Key figures and

conclusions

about the market



Market Research

4. Characteristics of the Russian

radiators market 4.1. Volume and dynamics of the Russian radiators market in

2007 – 2010. Forecast for 2011 - 2015

…

The volume of supply on the Russian radiators and heating convectors market in 2010 was

… billion RUR, which was …% higher than in 2009. The volume of imports were about …

billion RUR, which was about …% of the total market volume.

Source: Data (“Rosstat”, “FTS”, Expert Opinion), Analysis: IndexBox

Fig. 1 Dynamics of the structure of radiators and heating convectors market by

origin in value terms in 2007 - 2010, in millions of RUR

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

0.0

1000.0

2000.0

3000.0

4000.0

5000.0

6000.0

7000.0

8000.0

9000.0

10000.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F

- Analysis of the structure of the

radiators market in physical and in

value terms

- Analysis and forecast of the

volume and dynamics of the

Russian radiators market



Market Research

4.2. Structure of the radiators market: production, exports,

imports, consumption

Table 1 Dynamics of the structure of radiators and heating convectors market by

origin in value terms in 2007 - 2010, in millions of RUR

2007 2008 2009 2010

Production … … … …

In %, to the previous year …% …% …%

Imports … … … …


Exports … … … …


Market volume … … … …


Source: Data (Company data, “Rosstat”, “FTS”, Expert Opinion), Analysis: IndexBox



Market Research

5. Characteristics of the domestic

radiators production in 2005 – 2010.

Forecast for 2011 - 2017 5.1 Volume and dynamics of the radiators production in 2005 –

2010

The Russian production of radiators in 2010 was … MW. The main trend on the water

heating radiators market in 2010 was reducing the segment of cast iron radiators and

increasing the segment of steel radiators and converters: the share of iron ones was

reduced with …% (from …% to …%), while the share of steel ones increased by …% (from

…% to …%).

Source: Data (“Rosstat”), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Fig. 4 Structure of the production of radiators and heating convectors in 2010 by

types, in thousands of kW

…



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Table 2 Production of radiators and heating convectors in January 2005 - July

2011, in MW

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

In %, to

the

analogic

al period

of 2009

2011

In %, to

the

analogical

period of

2010

January … … … … … …% … …%

February … … … … … …% … …%

January –

February

… … … … … …% … …%

March … … … … … …% … …%

January –

March

… … … … … …% … …%

April … … … … … …% … …%

January –

April

… … … … … …% … …%

May … … … … … …% … …%

January –

May

… … … … … …% … …%

June … … … … … …% … …%

January -

June

… … … … … …% … …%

July … … … … … …% … …%

January –

July

… … … … … …% … …%

August … … … … … …%

January –

August

… … … … … …%

September … … … … … …%

January –

September

… … … … … …%

October … … … … … …%

January –

October

… … … … … …%

November … … … … … …%

January –

November

… … … … … …%

December … … … … … …%

January -

December

… … … … … …%




Market Research

6. Manufacturers prices of radiators

…

Table 24 Average manufacturers’ prices of radiators and heating convectors in Russia in January 2008 - July 2011

2008 2009 2010 2011

RUR /

thousands

of kW

RUR /

thousands

of kW

RUR/

thousa

nds of

kW

In %, to the

analogical

period of the

previous year

In %, to

December of

the previous

year

In %, to the

previous month

RUR /

thousands of

kW

In %, to the

analogical

period of the

previous year

In %, to

December of

the previous

year

In %, to the

previous

month

Jan … … … … … … … … … …

Feb … … … … … … … … … …

Mar … … … … … … … … … …

Apr … … … … … … … … … …

May … … … … … … … … … …

Jun … … … … … … … … … …

Jul … … … … … … … … … …

Aug … … … … … … … … … …

Sep … … … … … … … … … …

Oct … … … … … … … … … …

Nov … … … … … … … … … …

Dec … … … … … … … … … …




Market Research



Market Research

7. Characteristics of the imports of

radiators on the Russian market 7.1. Volume and dynamics of the imports of radiators

…

The volume of imports of radiators to the Russian market in 2010 was … tons. The import

figures clearly reflect the seasonality of the market. Thus, the highest levels of imports were

in May - September 2010. Most of the imported radiators to the Russian Federation come

from Germany, China and Belarus.

Source: Data (“FTS”), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Fig. 1 Dynamics of the imports of radiators and heating convectors in Russia in

January 2010 - May 2011, in tons

…

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

A detailed analysis

of imports on the

basis of FCS data



Market Research

11. Forecast for the development of

the radiators market in 2011 - 2017

11.1. Evaluation of the potential volume of radiators supply in

2011 - 2017

… In 2010 - 2011 in the Russian economy measures were taken to overcome the economic

crisis. This will occur against the background of a slight increase in GDP, lower real incomes

of the population, with a relatively high level of inflation, a devaluation of the RUR, and a

decline in production in some sectors.

Despite the negative impact of the crisis, the domestic market will remain a priority for

most companies. Success will favor the companies with the ability to quickly change the

geography of their supplies and so flexibly to respond to the challenges of the environment.

This allows will producers to insure themselves against possible regional crises.

…



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