IAEAInternational Atomic Energy Agency

IAEA Tools for energy systems analysisIAEA Tools for energy systems analysis

Mark HowellsPlanning and Economic Studies Section

Department of Nuclear EnergyVienna, June 14, 2010

IAEA

Analytical Framework and Tools forEnergy Assessments

MAEDWASP

MESSAGEFINPLAN

SIMPACTSISED

Social and Economic Perspective

Identification ofTechnology Choices

Assessment ofNatural Resources

Assessment of Electricity and Water needs

Analysis of Electricity and Water supply

Financial and other resource requirements

EnvironmentalBurdens andmitigation

Exogenous Assumptions Regional trade ofelectricity and fuels

Sustainable supply strategy

Social and Economic Perspective

Identification ofTechnology Choices

Assessment ofNatural Resources

Assessment of Energy Needs

Analysis of Energy Supply

Options

Financial and other resource requirements

EnvironmentalBurdens andmitigation

Exogenous Assumptions Regional trade ofelectricity and fuels

Sustainable supply strategy

Social and Economic Perspective

Identification ofTechnology Choices

Assessment ofNatural Resources

Assessment of Electricity and Water needs

Analysis of Electricity and Water supply

Financial and other resource requirements

EnvironmentalBurdens andmitigation

Exogenous Assumptions Regional trade ofelectricity and fuels

Sustainable supply strategy

Social and Economic Perspective

Identification ofTechnology Choices

Assessment ofNatural Resources

Assessment of Energy Needs

Analysis of Energy Supply

Options

Financial and other resource requirements

EnvironmentalBurdens andmitigation

Exogenous Assumptions Regional trade ofelectricity and fuels

Sustainable supply strategy

IAEA

MAED Model for the Analysis of Energy Demand

INPUT� Energy sector

data (energy balance)� Scenario

assumptions–Socio-economic

–Technological� Substitutable

energy uses� Process

efficiencies� Hourly load

characteristics

MAED

OUTPUT� Useful and final

energy demand by sector/fuel� Electricity demand� Hourly electric load� Load duration

curves

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� Load forecast� Existing system� Candidates� Constraints:

– Reliability– Implementation– Fuel supply– Generation– Emissions

INPUT

WASP

OUTPUT

� Build schedule� Generation� Costs� Fuel consumption� Emissions

WASPWien Automatic System Planning Package

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MESSAGEMESSAGEMModel for odel for EEnergy nergy SSupply upply SSystem ystem AAlternatives and their lternatives and their GGeneral eneral EEnvironmental impactsnvironmental impacts

OUTPUT

MESSAGE

INPUT� Energy systemstructure (including vintage of plant and equipment)

� Base year energyflows and prices

� Energy demandprojections (MAED)

� Technology and resource options & their techno-economic performance profiles

� Technical andpolicy constraints

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2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026

TWh

biomassgeothhydronucleargasdieselfuel oilcoal

● Primary and final energy mix● Emissions and waste streams● Environmental impacts ● Resource use● Land use● Import dependence● Investment requirements

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FINPLANFinancial Analysis of Electric Sector Expansion Plans

INPUT� Investment programme

(= capacity additions) & operating expenses

� Economic and fiscal parameters (inflation, escalation, exchange rates, taxes)

� Financial parameters (credits, bonds…)

FINPLAN

For each year: � Cash flows

� Balance Sheet, Statement of Sources, Applications of Funds� Financial Ratios:

- Working Capital Ratio- Leverage ratio - Debt Repayment Ratio- …- Global Ratio

OUTPUT

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SIMPACTSSimplified Approach for Estimating Impacts of Electricity Generation

OUTPUTCase 1 (minimal results): � uniform world model (UWM)

estimate for total exposure� quantification of health impacts� monetisation of impacts

Case 2 (more output): � estimates 1 adjusted for

effective stack height (including H+Vexit+Texit)

INPUTCase 1 (minimum data requirements):

� pollutant emission rates� regional population density

(< 1000 km) � source location (urban/rural)

Case 2 (some more data): � stack characteristics� local population (<50 km)

Case 3 (even more data): � local metrological data (wind

directions & speed) � population around the

source (10x10 km)

Estimate 1

Estimate 2

Estimate 3Case 3 (even more output): � Gaussian plume used for local

exposure and impact estimate� estimates 2 adjusted for more

accurate pollutant & receptor distribution

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EISD Energy Indicators for Sustainable Development

Social Indicators:Social Indicators:Equity (e.g. Affordability); Health (e.g. Safety)Equity (e.g. Affordability); Health (e.g. Safety)

Economic Indicators:Economic Indicators:Use and Production pattern (e.g. Reserve to production ratio)Use and Production pattern (e.g. Reserve to production ratio)Security (e.g. imports) Security (e.g. imports)

Environmental Indicators:Environmental Indicators:Atmosphere (e.g. climate change)Atmosphere (e.g. climate change)Water (e.g. water quality) Water (e.g. water quality) Land (e.g. solid waste) Land (e.g. solid waste)

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Capacity Building, information dissemination and analysis

Our website:Our website:http://www.iaea.org/OurWork/ST/NE/Pess/index.shtml

•• Capacity BuildingCapacity Buildinghttp://www.iaea.org/OurWork/ST/NE/Pess/capacitybuilding.shtml

•• Information disseminationInformation disseminationhttp://www.iaea.org/OurWork/ST/NE/Pess/databanks.shtml

•• AnalysisAnalysishttp://www.iaea.org/OurWork/ST/NE/Pess/3-E_analysis.shtml

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Meeting the Growing Demand for Training

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eTrainingCoventional

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Follow-up Expert Support

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Thank You

IAEA…atoms for peace.