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Outlook for Rapid Expansion of Soviet Space Progranls_1,hrough 1986 •

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Outlook for Rapid Expansion of Sol·iet Space Progran1s Through 1986-

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Outlook fur Rapid E\(tan~ion uf Sm i•:l St~:u:~: PruJ,l.ram~ Thmu~h 19M6.

Tit,· s,,l·i..:b an: und..:l'lakinl,! a 1·ari..:t~ of 111.:\\ ~ra..:c pro!_!r;lln,. \hat 1\ill rc~ult in a I'O.:ri,;d ,,r rapu.l .:xpa11:.iun ,.u..:h a:. that 1>bscn·.:u during 1 h.: l. 'J(lU,. but th;:t ••ill r to:..:hnolog~• ad\'ancc:. will m..:et

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~han:,:inl! •nb~i0n r..:quircm..:rll,: \\'hen the n..:..:e,~ar:. t.:.:haoh>i:)' i~ llllt a\·ail::bh: in th~ LSSR. th..: S,>,·kr, probabl:. wi!! all..:mpt 1\t !'oil'''' their pa~t pr:r~·tk~: of buyin~; or ··uunu,~ing .. it from oth..:r O.:llltntric,.

Soviet lead..:·~- ha\:c--_~ii.I1C~i"i~ll in their \\·rit in~:s and !'ltatcntcnts that th..:r do ru.>t \'icw spao.:c a:. an b•>lut..:d ar..:a but rathcr :ts ;rn int..::;:ral part of m·era!l milit:r~: .. o.:conumi..:. ami polit!o.:ul JWiio.:y. Outlays. for _:.r•ao.:cJmrdwurc. will ... r..:quir..: tho.: cqui•:;llcnt of someS I::! billion ir. I ')~fJ. as compared· with So bil-lion in 19:) l. Ba~..:d un ~urn:nt proj..:..:tiuns. cxpcnt:fiturcs for space lmrdwar..: ..:ould increase from about 0.6 percent uf G:"\P in 19St'w 0.9 pcn:..:nt by I 9l'i6. Th..: ~o,·icts rrobubly perc..: in: that th..: p0litil·al: militar:., and 1:0.:01\0illiC r..:turns of rubJ..:s ill\'Cltt!:d in

Ot!tluuk fur Rapid EXJl:tmiun uf Sm i~l Spucc (>rugrnms ThrouJth 1986 •

l'cr~atc~tiu: ami l.lbturi~:al Trend!> Tl11: Su\"i~t>. :tn: umkrtakin.: a \ari.:t~ ,,,- nc'' pru· a,:r:un:. that ''ill lm,·c :t major unpa.:t .m the ),~,·.:I of n::.ouro..:..:~ d.:,·ot..:d to ,.,pa..:c :ll:tiviti.:~. Th.:~..: pro~:r.:m> indUlk ">phi~ti.::n.:d plaitctary :llld mann.:ti mi:.,iun>, '' hidt '' il! prubO!DI) cmph>} a new bur11.:b n:hi..:h: ;imilar tu th~ L"S Sau .. rn \" :1~ \\ell a~ rcal-tin•e l'huto&.:raphi..: :.atdlit.:~. reusable ~p:u;~ :.y>tenh, il!td :111 cxu:n~i, .. • network uf n.:w ~~ nchr..mou:. .:ommunica· tiLlll:. >atdlitc:.. \\"..: ..:xpe..:t SIJ\·i.:t ~a•a.:e hardw::rc .:u:.t> tu reach the cquindcnt uf S 1.:! billion a )·car b~ the mic.l·l9SO:.··:-Joubl.: the ..:urrent •:o~t--

.Sm·h:t :-.pa..:c hardu:trc ..:ost:. in..:rcascd frum abnut S4.:'0 rnilliun in 19ticat.:d ~pa.lcn:.ivc ~co,yru:hrunous ..:ommuni..:atiott> "atdlitc nctwL•rk> ••••• lndud.:d arc::

• :-..-cw. hh,:h-tc..:hnulug:- payload:. ck:.i~ncd 10 provide n•·ar·rcal·tim..: ph.;tugraphi..: data and tu incr..:a>c twvill:llion -a..:..:umcy·.·- ··-

• I. a r~c >pa.:c .. tatiu}l CJ':tLe rcscarch and development and. proJu.:tton f;~cilitics and ..:un~tructivn of new or irn· prtn-.:d l.t u·n..:h tu de,·cl\J(l new :.pa..:c: laun..:h vchi..:ks anc.l. '" lii:Hcral. of future So\'ict intentions in spa.:c.

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lncrc:as\:d usc of the SL-12/ 13 booster and the corrc-sru.>•tding increase in th~· number of high-technology missions associated with this sracc launch \'Chicle arc: major factors in the rrojcctcd dol.lbling; of space costs by 1986. Geosynchronous col))m~ations and mcte-OI"l'logicul satdlitcs. space station!Ji"fidules. and the lunar and rl;tnctarr \'Chicles arc iliichcd on this booster. All of the srac,·craft fur fWsc missions arc larger and more complex--and thus~i1orc cxpcnsi\'C-· th:ln the carlicr.sracccraft thut were !:wnchcd by the_

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Exemptions:

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:. lion to modulc~·.ror sdr.:ntilir.: ~xpcrirn\:nt~; mch:urolll· (;Y •. and manufa~turiri!:,thc·,taiiun r.:uuld.abu cunta fn

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,\·c-cxp.!.:t th.H b~ lat.: t9:i.:! the So\"i~tswill launch a go:os~ achrunou~ mo:to:urolot:ical ~:ndlitc that tho: So\"i· -ct~ h.td ori~,;inall~ announ

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So"i"t lt-ad~rs h:w.: indic;~tcd in their writina;:. and Stateotenu lh.Jt they do not vi•:w ~,,a..:.: :1~ an i~\llat.:d

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:tr.:a but ra1h..:r ,., .Ill im.:l!ra! p::rt uf ••n·rallmilitaQ. c~:nnnmi..:. aml P••liti..:a! l'> h;t> ,.it.:nifi-.::antl:- incrca • .:d: and "': .:Xt'cet th;ll at lca~t :.i:~. of tilc,.c mb:.inn" "ill.bc.laun.:h..:J annual I) thruu~;h l'iXh in :u.idiuun tl.l tlw ,.tudie,. allo.trd th..: .. - - ··--··

The Sm i.:t """..:..: J'rut.:r:un con tin~•..:' to preempt a l,!ro•.\illl,! ,.h:tr..: •>f 1h..: natiun':.mo.'t m\:ldertll"flldu..:tion ;\ltd re) :tnd 111:111;- uf th.: fine'! ,.eientili..: • .:n~in.:.:rina:. :md mam:g·:rial tal· cnt,. uf th.: ..:.:onomy, :tnd it must be ,.ub.i.:ct h> .:on:.id.:rabic re.-iew in lit:ht ,,f .:urrcnt e..:onomie per-t

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:-.:u.:lli:.: laum.:h rat.:. "hkh j,. .:urr~~ntl~ ha.cd um and tlh: Su,·ict~